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   Climate: Self-driving cars are coming
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   Experts say there are big questions about how driverless cars could effect greenhouse gas emissions.
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             December 11, 2025
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          You’re reading the Climate Forward newsletter. Every week, we bring you news and insights for a warming world, including the latest coverage of climate policy, the state of our environment and the science behind it all. Enjoy the edition below, and look for future newsletters in your inbox on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays.
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            <img alt="A Zoox self-driving tax, smaller than a traditional car, at an intersection. " class="css-3vswge" height="480" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F12%252F11%252Fmultimedia%252F11cli-newsletter-01-fmhg%252F11cli-newsletter-01-fmhg-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjU0ODI1MjUuODUyOTk4M30:1vTmeb:ZGj-_1x7imSrD2hU44ByemiNgQvHj5Lr7y8o47EJ6DM" style="width:100%;height:auto;display:block;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:8px" width="600"/>
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             A Zoox self-driving robotaxi in San Francisco last month.
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             Balazs Gardi for The New York Times
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        <h1 style="color:#000;font:400 30px/37.5px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 12px">
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          Driverless cars, unclear emissions
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              By
              <a class="css-nanfcg" style="-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;border-bottom:1px solid #ccc;color:inherit">
               Claire Brown
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         <span>
          Call an Uber in Austin or Atlanta, and you might be offered a vehicle without a driver. Waymo, the self-driving taxi service owned by Google’s parent company, Alphabet, is expanding rapidly and partnering with ride-hailing companies.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Waymo operated 14 million trips across five U.S. cities this year and is expanding to Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando and San Antonio in 2026 with a goal of completing one million rides a week by the end of next year.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          All of Waymo’s driverless taxis are electric vehicles, as are self-driving cars from competitors like Amazon’s
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Zoox and Tesla
         </a>
         <span>
          . All these autonomous E.V. rides have the potential to replace trips in gas-powered vehicles. Transportation is the biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Still, there are big questions about the long-term environmental implications of autonomous vehicles. For now, they won’t make a real dent until the industry grows. But even then, increased traffic and the industry’s demand for electricity could complicate things. In the long term, experts say, driverless vehicles could also cause a surge in overall demand for car transportation.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          It’s very early days. Here’s what we know so far.
         </span>
        </p>
        <h3 style="color:#000;font:400 20px/27.5px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span style="font-weight:700">
          Driverless cars and air quality
         </span>
        </h3>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Research has shown that replacing tailpipes with batteries can have a positive effect on air quality. A study from the University of Southern California’s medical school found that
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          emergency room visits for asthma
         </a>
         <span>
          declined modestly when as few as 20 zero-emissions vehicles per 1,000 residents were added to the roads.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Other research has found that electrifying
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          17 percent of cars
         </a>
         <span>
          could lead to “modest but widespread” reductions in ozone and particulate matter. Waymo operates 1,000 vehicles in San Francisco, its largest market.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But as the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress eliminate electric vehicle subsidies and throw support behind gas-powered cars, driverless cars could emerge as a bright spot for E.V. ridership, said Yonah Freemark, a researcher at the Urban Institute.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “I think there’s a lot of technological benefits related to electric vehicles that the administration just cannot get in the way of,” he said.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Electric vehicles are also heavier than gas-powered cars, Freemark said, and additional tire and brake wear could release particulate matter into the atmosphere, which could have a particularly pronounced air-quality effect in neighborhoods near highways.
         </span>
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            <img alt="A white Waymo taxi in traffic. " class="css-3vswge" height="400" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F12%252F11%252Fmultimedia%252F11cli-newsletter-02-fmhg%252F11cli-newsletter-02-fmhg-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjU0ODI1MjUuODUzMjg3N30:1vTmeb:jAgAJmd4Qayi7mdYryQm7cii6HHN6lkua_yVCAycbE4" style="width:100%;height:auto;display:block;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:8px" width="600"/>
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            <span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
             A 2023 M.I.T. study found that, because of their computing power, the power required to run a billion vehicles driving for one hour per day could consume as much energy as all existing data centers.
            </span>
            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Jim Wilson/The New York Times
            </span>
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         <span style="font-weight:700">
          Carbon emissions
         </span>
        </h3>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Waymo has said that its cars generate fewer emissions per mile than gas-powered vehicles. The company
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          buys renewable energy
         </a>
         <span>
          to offset its carbon footprint.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Emissions from electric vehicles — with human drivers — can vary based on the energy sources used to power the grids where they’re charged. But E.V.s are
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          generally much greener than gas-powered cars
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Still, replacing human drivers with computer systems comes with additional energy costs. Autonomous vehicles have been called “data centers on wheels” because they require so much computing power. The authors of a 2023 study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that the power required to run one billion driverless vehicles driving for one hour per day could consume as much energy as all existing data centers in the world. (Data center construction has expanded since the study was published.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Another big unknown is how autonomous vehicles could change the way people travel. We don’t know, for example, whether self-driving vehicles will drive more efficiently than humans, or whether people will use them to commute longer distances. This means the overall emissions outlook is uncertain, said Soumya Sudhakar, a Ph.D. candidate who led the study.
         </span>
        </p>
        <h3 style="color:#000;font:400 20px/27.5px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span style="font-weight:700">
          Driverless car gridlock
         </span>
        </h3>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Which brings us to the question of robot-taxi traffic.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          When researchers at North Carolina State University
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          modeled the effects of autonomous vehicles on traffic congestion
         </a>
         <span>
          , they found that driverless cars programmed to drive cautiously tended to increase congestion when they made up a substantial proportion of cars on the road.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The finding has implications for air quality: If a handful of slow-moving robot taxis cause a traffic jam with a hundred idling gas-powered cars, any pollution benefits from the E.V.s could be outweighed by the honking gas-powered cars behind them.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          It doesn’t have to be this way, said Ali Hajbabaie, a professor at North Carolina State who worked on the study. The modeling found that effects could be reversed if driverless cars were
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          programmed to drive more aggressively
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         <span>
          , or if they could communicate with one another and local traffic systems.
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “Now you can have a completely different story, and having autonomous vehicles could actually improve traffic operations,” he said.
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            <img alt="Beavers eating berries." class="css-3vswge" height="406" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F12%252F11%252Fmultimedia%252F11cli-newsletter-03-fmhg%252F11cli-newsletter-03-fmhg-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjU0ODI1MjUuODUzNzY0M30:1vTmeb:bsMbnPDKGTsoOyRbswnyu76SldXuEwluGLLwm4tFbd0" style="width:100%;height:auto;display:block;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:8px" width="600"/>
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            <span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
             Snack time for beaver kits awaiting transport and release back into the wild at the Beaver Bunkhouse relocation facility in Millville, Utah, last month.
            </span>
            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Kim Raff for The New York Times
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        <h2 style="color:#000;font:400 25px/32.5px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          These Utah beavers are moving. They’ll get new jobs and more space.
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Utah is among a number of states, tribes and conservation groups that are
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          leading the country on relocating unwanted beavers
         </a>
         <span>
          . While the animals, whose chewing and damming have long led to trouble with humans, remain controversial, Teresa Griffin, a wildlife manager with the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources, said she was seeing more interest from colleagues than ever.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “At first, we used to just do it in the southwest corner of the state, but now everybody else is kind of getting on board and becoming beaver believers,” Ms. Griffin said.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Beavers possess a singular drive to slow flowing water and create ponds, with skills to match. Across the West, the animals are increasingly valued for their ability to keep water on the drying landscape. Their dams reduce runoff, recharge groundwater, build habitat for fish and other wildlife, help streams recover critical sediment and create watering holes. As wildfires intensify, beavers are more important than ever.
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          — Catrin Einhorn
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:700">
          Read more
         </a>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          about how Utah is doing it
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
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            <img alt="A beaver wallows in mud." class="css-3vswge" height="390" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F12%252F11%252Fmultimedia%252F11cli-newsletter-04-fmhg%252F11cli-newsletter-04-fmhg-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjU0ODI1MjUuODUzODc1fQ:1vTmeb:W61HZOOAPUYwLBVhD8YU_0iG-iXwgHFAkqPLejLhUAg" style="width:100%;height:auto;display:block;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:8px" width="600"/>
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           <td class="css-1b9cqt1" style="text-align:left;width:100%;padding-bottom:15px;line-height:14px">
            <span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
             A beaver after release in a creek in Paragonah, Utah, last month.
            </span>
            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Kim Raff for The New York Times
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          And read more from our
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          50 States, 50 Fixes
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         <span>
          series:
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        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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                This Arkansas City Shows How to Slash Emissions and Save Money, Too
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                Wyoming Cowboys Are Breaking Down Barriers, Literally
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                South Dakota Ranchers Are Burning the Prairie to Save It
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               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Not All Drilling in Texas Is About Oil
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        <p style="color:#000;font:700 12px/15px arial,sans-serif;padding-bottom:2px;letter-spacing:.8px;margin:0">
         POLLUTION
        </p>
        <h2 style="color:#000;font:400 25px/32.5px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Starting with formaldehyde, the Trump administration reassesses carcinogens
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The Trump administration is proposing to almost double what’s considered safe exposure levels to formaldehyde
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          , a cancer-causing chemical found in many consumer products
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         <span>
          , as part of a broader overhaul of its approach to regulating carcinogens.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The Environmental Protection Agency under the Biden administration had, for the first time, prepared to regulate formaldehyde based on a fundamental assumption: that there is virtually no safe level of exposure for such carcinogens.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But in a win for the chemicals industry, the E.P.A. under President Trump is upending that approach. A draft memo published by the agency this month assumes a safe threshold exists for formaldehyde.
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          — Hiroko Tabuchi
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:700">
          Read more.
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           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="color:#000;font:700 12px/15px arial,sans-serif;padding-bottom:2px;letter-spacing:.8px;margin:0">
         LOST SCIENCE
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td>
            <img alt="Jenny Carlson Donnelly, dressed in a white lab coat, stands outside in front of a tree and signs that read “We [Heart Symbol] USAID” and “Support Federal Workers”" class="css-1bm0nbl" height="400" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F12%252F11%252Fmultimedia%252F11cli-newsletter-05-jpzg%252F11cli-newsletter-05-jpzg-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjU0ODI1MjUuODU0MDAyfQ:1vTmeb:kyU4EpBH6I4sEgP4OJ85UZmpWoqMPT-TjjhpNa32Hi0" style="width:100%;height:auto;display:block;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:5px" width="600"/>
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           <td class="css-1b9cqt1" style="text-align:right;width:100%;padding-bottom:10px;line-height:14px">
            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Cheriss May for The New York Times
            </span>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 style="color:#000;font:400 25px/32.5px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          “I was part of a system trying to make people’s lives better. To me, that was a good reason to get up in the morning. I was proud to show support from the American people.”
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Jenny Carlson Donnelly was the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          malaria outbreak emergency adviser
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         <span>
          for the U.S. Agency for International Development. In her former position, she worked with people in other countries to prevent malaria and analyzed data from mosquito samples. (Malaria causes more than 500,000 deaths per year, many of them children.) In July, she was terminated from her position, amid a wave of cutbacks at U.S.A.I.D.
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:700">
          Read more
         </a>
         <span>
          .
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         <span>
          And read more from our
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          series
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          .
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            <h2 class="css-hjhb8p" style="letter-spacing:.4px;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;color:#000;margin:0;padding:0">
             OTHER NYT CLIMATE NEWS
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                  Emily Elconin for The New York Times
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                  Power ⚡︎ Moves
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                  Ford’s Car of the Future, Hatched in a Skunk Works Near Los Angeles
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                  Desperate to catch up with Chinese automakers, Ford is redesigning its fleet with a Silicon Valley-style team. Is it too late?
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                  By Jack Ewing
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           <td class="css-11kh5w9" style="padding:0;padding-bottom:25px;border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-top:20px">
            <table role="presentation" style="width:100%">
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                 <img alt="An image of a pass featuring George Washington and Donald J. Trump. " class="css-7y77sk" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F12%252F10%252Fmultimedia%252F10cli-parks-lawsuit-01-zwvq%252F10cli-parks-lawsuit-01-zwvq-square640-v2.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjU0ODI1MjUuODU0MjM1fQ:1vTmeb:2WDBcbhZDXqQK94bdSeBEiPLD2aqSM3hAu3IqUTeHU8" style="width:291px;box-sizing:border-box;vertical-align:top" width="291"/>
                 <p style="color:#888;font:11px/17px georgia,serif;margin:2px 0 0;text-align:right">
                  Department of Interior, via Center for Biological Diversity
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                  Lawsuit Challenges Park Service Passes Featuring Trump
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                  An environmental group is suing, saying federal law requires an image of public lands, not the president.
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                  By Maxine Joselow
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                  Bridget Bennett/Reuters
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                  Janie Osborne for The New York Times
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                  By Karen Zraick
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                  Miguel Porlan
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                Scientists say that climate change supercharged the storms that killed that 1,750 people in Asia in recent weeks,
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                Texas is on track to generate more power from solar farms than from coal plants this year,
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