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             October 13, 2022
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              Good morning. At 8:30 a.m. Eastern, we’ll get the latest inflation reading, a figure that will be closely watched by investors and policymakers. Also in store: the latest annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security. You can follow The Times’s
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                  Inflation in Aisle 5.
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                  Terry Chea/Associated Press
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Why today’s inflation report will be bigger than usual
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             The S&amp;P 500 is on a six-session losing streak — its worst run in nearly two years — but U.S. stock futures and European shares are up this morning ahead of the release of the Consumer Price Index report.
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             Economists polled by Dow Jones
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              forecast that prices
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             rose again last month, pushing headline inflation to 8.1 percent, on an annual basis, down from 8.3 percent in August.
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             Climbing rental prices and education costs will be among the culprits, Goldman Sachs said in a report this week. “We expect monthly core C.P.I. inflation to remain in the 0.3 to 0.4 percent range for the next couple of months before edging down to 0.2 to 0.3 percent next year,” Jan Hatzius, a chief economist at the bank, wrote in a note to clients.
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              The gradual easing will be of little comfort to the Fed or the White House.
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             The last inflation report before next month’s midterm elections will not be much of a boost to Fed policymakers, investors or the Biden administration, with rising prices and economic uncertainty
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              weighing heavily on voters’ minds
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             On cue, the White House began issuing talking points ahead of the release, saying that there were “encouraging” signs of recovery, particularly in the labor market, where wage growth remains strong and the job participation rate is up.
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             Those green shoots almost certainly won’t be enough to change the Fed’s approach. Minutes from the last rate-setting meeting suggest that most of the bank’s top officials are worried they are not doing enough to tackle inflation and that more big interest rate increases are needed this year to slow consumer demand and stabilize inflation, which “
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              remained unacceptably high
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             .”
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              Investors are bracing for more bad news.
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             David Bahnsen, the chief investment officer at The Bahnsen Group, a wealth management firm, told DealBook that investors expected today’s report to show inflation is still running hot, giving the Fed’s monetary policy hawks further ammunition to “raise interest rates by another 75 basis points at its November meeting.”
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             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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              A jury orders Alex Jones to pay nearly $1 billion to Sandy Hook families.
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              The award
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             comes after the fabulist was found liable for spreading damaging lies about the 2012 school shooting. The parent company of Jones’s Infowars has
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              filed for bankruptcy protection
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             , a move the families are challenging, saying it is an effort to avoid paying the damages against him.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The International Energy Agency warns OPEC Plus over production cuts.
             </span>
             Efforts by oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia to reduce output could
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              tip the global economy into recession
             </a>
             , the agency said in its latest monthly report. Saudi Arabia
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              rejected criticism
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             of its plans, saying they were meant merely to stabilize oil markets.
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              A top computer chip maker braces for tough times.
             </span>
             TSMC
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              cut its planned capital investment target
             </a>
             for this year by 10 percent, suggesting increasing pessimism about its business prospects — particularly after the U.S. announced new restrictions on exports to China. Others in the semiconductor industry are
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              suspending sales
             </a>
             to Chinese customers.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              JPMorgan Chase cuts ties with Kanye West.
             </span>
             The bank has closed the account of the rapper who now goes by Ye, DealBook has confirmed, after the conservative commentator Candace Owens
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              tweeted a letter
             </a>
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              ,
             </span>
             purportedly from JPMorgan, delivering the news. Ye had publicly
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              criticized JPMorgan
             </a>
             for matters like not connecting him with Jamie Dimon, its C.E.O., or giving him access to deals.
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             The U.K.’s fiscal infighting gets nastier
            </h2>
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             The British pound and government bond yields were rebounding this morning, a day after further investor confusion over the status of the Bank of England’s emergency bond-buying program prompted a wide-ranging markets sell-off. But there’s still reason for concern — in part because the government appears at odds with its central bank.
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              Government ministers blame the Bank of England for recent market turmoil.
             </span>
             Jacob Rees-Mogg, the business secretary, said the central bank’s decision to raise interest rates — rather than tackle worries about unfunded tax cuts announced last month — was behind the
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              recent uptick in government bond yields
             </a>
             and volatile trading in the pound.
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The truth appears mixed: Investors reacted to confusion over whether the central bank’s bond-buyback program would end on Friday as scheduled. The operation was introduced to stabilize markets. That worked for a few days, but the latest volatility adds to investor concern that more aid may be needed beyond this week, and fuels further doubts about the future of the government’s tax-cutting fiscal agenda.
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Another sign of division among the government and central bankers: Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor of the Exchequer, said any more trouble in the markets
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              would be “a matter for the governor
             </a>
             ” of the Bank of England. (Just the day before, he had
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              praised the central bank’s handling
             </a>
             of the market turmoil.)
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The government isn’t backing down.
             </span>
             Liz Truss, the prime minister, told lawmakers yesterday that she
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              wouldn’t reduce public spending
             </a>
             , despite independent projections showing her tax cut proposals would blow a hole of up to £60 billion ($66.8 billion) in the government’s budget.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Truss will keep dismissing her critics.
             </span>
             The new prime minister appears to have backed down from her campaign pledge to
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              review the Bank of England’s independence mandate
             </a>
             . But that won’t stop the feuding, even as economists say her fiscal plans are effectively forcing the central bank to keep raising interest rates — and as she faces a growing rebellion within her own party.
            </p>
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             The infighting is exactly the sort of thing that investors have indicated they
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              don’t
             </span>
             want to hear.
            </p>
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             Continue reading the main story
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Expect a bleak picture in bank earnings
            </h2>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Even with the labor market and much of the rest of the economy chugging along, bank C.E.O.s have been warning for months about a coming storm. Investors may soon get a glimpse of the looming clouds that
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon and others
             </a>
             have been warning about as the nation’s biggest banks begin reporting their third-quarter earnings tomorrow morning.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Expect a big drop.
             </span>
             Six of
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
             </span>
             the country’s largest lenders — Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo — are expected to report a 33 percent drop in quarterly earnings from a year ago, hurt by a dip in deal making. With I.P.O.s and M.&amp;A. dormant, a number of banks last month warned that investment banking revenue was likely to be 50 percent lower than the same quarter a year ago. The drop could be as high as 60 percent at Goldman and Morgan Stanley, according to KBW, an investment bank that specializes in financial firms.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Still, there are encouraging signs.
             </span>
             Lending, a barometer of economic health, jumped by 8 percent this quarter, according to KBW analysts. Th at consumers and companies continue to borrow, despite higher interest rates and a growing uncertain outlook, is a good sign. “It shows that the economy is still pulling us along,” Christopher Whalen, a founder of the bank ratings and analytics firm Institutional Risk Analytics, told DealBook. “Consumers are still spending.”
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Elsewhere, cracks are forming.
             </span>
             Mortgage lending is estimated to have dropped drastically last quarter. The banking giants are expected to report $4.5 billion in future loan losses as credit-challenged firms fall behind on payments, according to Bloomberg. On top of that, higher interest rates are poised to take a bite out of trading gains, sinking the overall value of bank assets. “The days of Fed-fueled outsized returns from their Wall Street businesses are over,” Whalen said.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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           </td>
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           </td>
          </tr>
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        </table>
       </div>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Elon Musk’s Twitter to-do list
            </h2>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             In between offering unsolicited advice on
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              how to end Russia’s war in Ukraine
             </a>
             and promoting a perfume brand, Burnt Hair, purportedly
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              to help him buy Twitter
             </a>
             , Elon Musk needs to figure out how he will run the company if his $44 billion bid succeeds.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The on-again, off-again deal could be sealed within just three weeks, a sprint that Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a Yale management professor, tells DealBook is “absolute blitzkrieg speed!”
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
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             With Sonnenfeld’s help, DealBook put together a checklist of priorities Musk should consider:
            </p>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
                Find a C.E.O.
               </span>
               Musk has told investors he would be interim C.E.O., but he’s already overseeing multiple companies and will probably need to find a permanent boss. Despite fielding
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                exuberant overtures
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               by the likes of the tech investor Jason Calacanis, Musk hasn’t signaled if he has any serious candidates in mind.
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                Devise a business model.
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               Musk wants to reduce Twitter’s reliance on advertisers, even though they account for about 90 percent of its revenue. Musk has said he would like to build out the platform into a messaging-transacting-streaming
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                super app
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               — à la China’s WeChat — even if American consumers have
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                shown little interest
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               . Undeterred, the PayPal co-founder has told investors that he wants to add new abilities to Twitter, like payments.
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                Create a content moderation policy.
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               Musk has called himself a “free speech absolutist,” but unless he plans to
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                talk to each user
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               who fires off questionable tweets — as he did with Kanye West, the rapper now known as Ye, whose Twitter account was locked after he made
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                antisemitic remarks
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               on the platform — the Tesla boss will need to develop a more scalable process. Musk will also face a
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                difficult balancing act in China
               </a>
               , one of Tesla’s biggest markets. Twitter is officially blocked there, but officials have used the platform to
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                disseminate disinformation in the West
               </a>
               .
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               Macellum Advisors, the activist hedge fund that owns 5 percent of Kohl’s, has reportedly urged the retailer to
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                shake up its board
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               , including its chairman. (WSJ)
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                Plan B Entertainment
               </a>
               , the Hollywood production company partly run by Brad Pitt, is said to be exploring a possible sale. (WSJ)
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               A SPAC backed by Charlie Ergen, the chairman of Dish Networks, is in talks to
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                buy the wireless carrier Boost Mobile
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               … which is owned by Dish. (Reuters)
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              Policy
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               How the conservative activist Leonard Leo has amassed billions to organize a sophisticated political operation to
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                advance Republican causes
               </a>
               , including an anti-E.S.G. campaign. (NYT)
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               Peter Thiel has reportedly offered to spend millions more to
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                back Blake Masters’s run for an Arizona Senate seat
               </a>
               — if Republicans’ Senate Leadership Fund PAC matched his donation. (Axios)
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              Best of the rest
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Inside the apparently lucrative business of
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                ghostwriting venture capitalists’ tweets
               </a>
               . (Insider)
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               Chinese buyers seem to have lost their taste for
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                buying French vineyards
               </a>
               . (Bloomberg)
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               Workers are going back to the office.
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                Many of their bosses aren’t
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               . (Vox)
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               Solomon Shinerock, one of the lead investigators in the Manhattan district attorney’s inquiry into the Trump family business, is joining the law firm Lewis Baach Kaufmann Middlemiss as a partner. (DealBook)
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