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   DealBook: Crisis of Truss
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   Also, Ye wants to buy Parler.
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             October 17, 2022
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              Good morning. Bank of America just reported that its
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               earnings fell by 8 percent last quarter
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              . The drop was smaller than expected, and the bank bested most of its rivals in what has been a tough period for dealmakers.
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                  Looking down.
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                  Pool photo by Daniel Leal
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             The Truss watch continues
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The
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              British pound and government bonds rose
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             this morning, after Britain’s finance minister of three days, Jeremy Hunt,
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              reversed nearly all
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             of the government’s promised tax cuts. But the future of the current government remains uncertain, as political analysts and even fellow lawmakers say Prime Minister Liz Truss has all but lost her power.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Hunt overturned most of Truss’s promised £45 billion in tax breaks.
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             The fiscal proposals, unveiled last month, were quickly criticized, particularly by investors worried at how much they would raise the public deficit and that they might push up inflation, forcing the Bank of England to raise interest rates. By Friday, Truss had renounced £20 billion ($22.5 billion) worth of cuts and fired Kwasi Kwarteng, Hunt’s predecessor as chancellor of the Exchequer.
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             Hunt, a moderate member of Truss’s Conservative Party, was picked to calm restive markets — and is now widely regarded as the most powerful person in the British government. But even after tearing up Truss’s fiscal plan and announcing a slew of
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              government spending cuts
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             , he must still confront what independent analysts say is a huge hole in Britain’s public finances and widespread opposition to
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              another round of government austerity
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             . And the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, warned this weekend that the central bank would still need to
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              raise interest rates
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             to combat inflation.
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              Pressure on Truss to step down has soared.
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             Though some of her allies are arguing, perhaps hopelessly, against replacing her and risking political chaos, few think she will survive. Oddsmakers at the betting firm William Hill put the chances of Truss stepping down in 2022 at greater than 50-50.
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             Top business leaders are speaking openly about wanting her gone: Alison Carnwath, a senior adviser at the investment bank Evercore, told The Financial Times that Truss “should enter the record books as the
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              shortest-serving prime minister ever
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             .” And the financier Guy Hands said Truss “should go as soon as possible.”
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              But the big question is who would replace her.
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             With his newfound power and position, Hunt is a natural candidate. But British lawmakers are openly debating whether one of Truss’s former rivals, like Rishi Sunak, the previous chancellor, should take over. (One wrinkle: Under the Conservative Party’s current rules, it’s extremely difficult to oust Truss now.)
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             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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              China unexpectedly delays its latest economic report.
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             The country
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              quietly and indefinitely pushed back the release
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             of some data, including third-quarter G.D.P. figures, which were due out tomorrow. No reason was given; economists had expected an uptick in production as the effect of recent government support measures became apparent.
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              Credit Suisse settles a mortgage-bond inquiry for $495 million.
             </span>
             The payment
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              resolves an investigation by New Jersey
             </a>
             into the Swiss bank’s sale of residential mortgage-backed securities before the 2008 financial crisis. It’s the latest effort by Credit Suisse to end a cloud of legal troubles.
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              SpaceX will fund Ukraine’s satellite internet use after all.
             </span>
             “The hell with it,” Elon Musk tweeted over the weekend in announcing that SpaceX would
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              keep paying for the country’s Starlink subscriptions
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             . Musk drew criticism last week after it emerged that the company had asked the Pentagon to assume that cost.
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              Nikola’s Trevor Milton is convicted of fraud.
             </span>
             The 40-year-old founder of the E.V. maker
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              faces up to 20 years in prison
             </a>
             after a federal jury found him guilty of wire fraud and securities fraud. Nikola went public via SPAC in 2020, and was briefly valued at more than Ford, even though it hadn’t sold a single vehicle.
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Murdoch merger idea gets pushback
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Rupert Murdoch, who chairs both News Corp and Fox,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              is proposing
             </a>
             to reunite the two companies nearly a decade after splitting them apart. The plan is already hitting turbulence. Irenic Capital Management, an activist investor and one of the 10 largest holders of News Corp’s powerful Class B shares, is
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              pushing News Corp to consider a far different deal.
             </a>
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              What Murdoch wants:
             </span>
             The 91-year-old media tycoon sees value in reintegrating the two properties to exploit emerging business lines, such as sports betting. Many industry insiders questioned the timing of the proposal and the rationale behind reuniting the media giants after a 2013 breakup that divided the print businesses (under News Corp) and broadcast (under Fox). Murdoch contends the two companies would be a more powerful media powerhouse if put back together, particularly after he’d
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              sold off some of its biggest entertainment assets
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             to Disney.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              What’s News Corp worth?
             </span>
             Irenic Capital argues that it’s worth more if you keep the companies separate. It believes News Corp — which operates The Wall Street Journal, The Times of London and the HarperCollins publishing business — could unlock more value by spinning out its real estate business, which generated about $1.7 billion in revenue last year.
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             One prized asset: a majority stake in REA Group, a publicly traded Australian company, which is worth roughly $5.7 billion. Moves like that, it argues, would value News Corp at closer to $34 a share; it currently trades at about $15, and the stock has been languishing, down about 33 percent year to date. With
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
             </span>
             a market capitalization of nearly $17 billion, Fox is nearly twice the size of News Corp ($9 billion).
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Who gets a say?
             </span>
             Both News Corp and Fox have appointed special committees to review any potential deal, making Murdoch’s proposal far from a sure thing. The Murdoch Family Trust, which he controls with his eldest children, controls 39.5 percent of News Corp through its Class B shares, which are the only shares that get to vote.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             But there’s a wrinkle: All News Corp shareholders can vote in a merger that leaves them with less than 60 percent of the surviving company, according to its bylaws. In that case, the trust would have only 13 percent of the voting power, said Eric Talley, a professor at Columbia Law School. The Murdochs could structure a deal such that it doesn’t trigger the all-in vote clause, Talley adds. In any case, it adds further uncertainty to Rupert Murdoch’s plan.
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                <img class="css-17i7zb3" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2022%252F10%252F17%252Fmultimedia%252F17DB-Kanye-1-06c4%252F17DB-Kanye-1-06c4-articleLarge.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1okOaz:FzBNmgW970CBk8o_0HesfnR_gJmYgHNErUot6xlzZyk" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;height:auto;padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0"/>
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                <span class="css-14c9rv6" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:left">
                 <span class="css-2zlgwg" style="margin:0;font:normal 12px georgia,serif;color:#666">
                  Ye Social.
                 </span>
                 <span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  Evan Agostini/Invision, via Evan Agostini/Invision/Ap
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Ye tries on social media moguldom
            </h2>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             A week after Ye, the rapper once known as Kanye West, was suspended from Twitter and Instagram
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              for antisemitic posts
             </a>
             , he appears to have found a new way to get back onto social media:
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              agreeing to buy Parler
             </a>
             , the right-wing network. If the deal goes through — a big if — Ye would join Donald Trump and, potentially, Elon Musk in owning a social network.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Ye has “an agreement in principle” with Parler,
             </span>
             which just last month
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              raised $16 million
             </a>
             in new funding. It’s unclear how much he’s paying, or indeed whether the deal will happen at all: The two sides said they’re working toward a definitive purchase agreement, with the goal of closing by year end.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             “In a world where conservative opinions are considered to be controversial we have to make sure we have the right to freely express ourselves,” Ye said in the deal announcement.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Parler shot to prominence by being a haven for conservatives
             </span>
             who accused mainstream sites like Twitter of censoring their views. It was
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              rejected
             </a>
             by some web hosting services for allowing calls for violence.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Parler’s popularity is in decline: It currently ranks 108 in the “news” category on Apple’s iOS App Store in the U.S., according to Data.ai, with an estimated 101,000 active users. By comparison, Trump’s Truth Social has an estimated 1 million active users; Twitter said in July that it has nearly 238 million monetizable daily active users.
            </p>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             The F.T.C. loses a Trump-appointed commissioner
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             One of the two Republican commissioners at the F.T.C. has quit the agency to join the law firm Cravath, Swaine &amp; Moore after spending much of the past year wrangling with Lina Khan, the Biden-appointed chair of the commission. Noah Phillips was previously a litigator at Cravath, and the firm announced today that he will co-lead its antitrust practice in Washington.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Phillips’ departure is viewed as
             </span>
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               a big win for Khan
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              ,
             </span>
             since it leaves the five-member F.T.C. with three Democratic commissioners and one Republican. Phillips, who was appointed by former President Donald Trump and confirmed unanimously by the Senate, had served since 2018. (By statute, his position must eventually be filled by another Republican.)
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Phillips has been a big critic of the commission under Khan
             </span>
             . “Even when big gets bad, while antitrust is a powerful tool, the laws are not designed to address every problem we might associate with bigness,” he said in a
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              speech this month
             </a>
             . He also railed against “anti-monopoly warriors” during the speech, saying there was a “grand rhetorical expansion of antitrust undertaken by those who see big corporations at the heart of nearly every problem.” The speech seemed to be a complaint about Khan, who has vowed to use the agency’s antitrust mandate to
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              aggressively rein in Big Tech
             </a>
             .
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Phillips said in a statement to DealBook that it had been “especially exciting” to serve as a commissioner during a time when antitrust authorities were intent on being “more aggressive in merger control, enforcement and regulation.” In his new role, Phillips will advise clients on mergers, compliance, litigation and investigations.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Phillips will not be the only former F.T.C. commissioner at Cravath.
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Christine Varney
             </a>
             , a Democrat, is there and has been fighting — so far successfully — for a vertical merger of Illumina, a gene sequencing company, and Grail, which makes cancer detection tests. The F.T.C. aims to block the deal.
            </p>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             What to watch: The week ahead
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Tuesday:
             </span>
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Goldman Sachs reports earnings
             </span>
             .
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              According to The Wall Street Journal
             </a>
             , Goldman is planning sweeping changes to its trading, investment banking, wealth management and asset management businesses.
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              Wednesday: Tesla reports.
             </span>
             Elon Musk’s E.V. company delivered fewer cars than expected in the third quarter. This week investors will find out what that did to Tesla’s bottom line. Also weighing on Tesla shareholders: the question of whether Musk will need to sell more Tesla shares to fund his $44 billion
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              bid to buy Twitter
             </a>
             . Elsewhere, a new batch of U.K. inflation data will come out.
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              Thursday: The cooling housing market.
             </span>
             Analysts expect existing U.S. home sales for September will show a drop for the eight consecutive month. High borrowing costs are largely to blame: the rate on 30-year mortgages is expected to surpass 7 percent this week, a 13-year high.
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            <h3 class="css-132hdgt" style="color:#000;font:700 16px/24px arial,sans-serif;margin:8px 0 25px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
             THE SPEED READ
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              Deals
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Continental Resources, the oil producer, said it would
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                sell itself to its founder, Harold Hamm
               </a>
               , at a $27 billion valuation. (Continental)
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The grocery delivery app Instacart reportedly
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                cut its valuation to $13 billion
               </a>
               and told employees it’s postponing plans to go public, citing market volatility. (Bloomberg)
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The SPAC boom may have gone bust, but the
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                financiers who backed the blank-check funds
               </a>
               have fared well. (WSJ)
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The heads of KKR’s European private equity arm are preparing for a life of deal-making
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                without much borrowed money
               </a>
               . (Bloomberg)
              </span>
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              Policy
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               “Democrats Spent $2 Trillion to Save the Economy.
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                They Don’t Want to Talk About It
               </a>
               .” (NYT)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Peter Thiel is
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                seeking citizenship in Malta
               </a>
               , even as he donates millions to U.S. conservatives who decry globalism. (NYT)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Millions of dollars in
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                donations by the Nike co-founder Phil Knight
               </a>
               could help Republicans win the governor’s race in Oregon. (NYT)
              </span>
             </li>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               New court filings by New York’s attorney general show how Deutsche Bank
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                moved to cut financial ties with Donald Trump
               </a>
               . (Insider)
              </span>
             </li>
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              Best of the rest
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Goldman Sachs’s efforts to recruit on social media
               </a>
               have left many on Wall Street — and inside the firm — scratching their heads. (NY Post)
              </span>
             </li>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Alaska has canceled its winter snow crab season for the first time, after the
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                crabs’ population collapsed
               </a>
               . (WaPo)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               A Brazilian supermarket mogul helped finance Neymar’s rise to international soccer stardom. Now he wants the
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                millions he says he is owed
               </a>
               . (NYT)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               “Five years on, what happened to
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                the men of #MeToo
               </a>
               ?” (WaPo)
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
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             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              Correction: Friday’s newsletter incorrectly described the performance of the S&amp;P 500. The benchmark had lost 50 percent of its gains during the bull market by Thursday; it had not fallen 50 percent from its recent high.
             </span>
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