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   DealBook: Debt-ceiling optimism, Lazard’s new leader
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   Also, Microsoft welcomes A.I. regulation
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             May 26, 2023
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              Good morning. In today’s DealBook: There’s optimism a debt-ceiling deal can be reached as soon as today; Lazard taps a familiar name to succeed its outgoing C.E.O.; and Microsoft welcomes A.I. regulation. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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                  “I don’t think everybody is going to be happy at the end of the day,” Speaker Kevin McCarthy warned.
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                  Kenny Holston/The New York Times
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             A debt deal is in sight
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             Investors are holding their breath this morning, amid signs that the White House and top House Republicans are
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              closing in on a deal
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             to raise the debt limit and avert a government default. Stock futures are showing modest gains, while yields on Treasury bills maturing on June 8 have fallen, suggesting bond traders expect an agreement soon.
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             According to reports, a compromise could come as soon as today, paving the way for Congress to vote as soon as Tuesday. That of course is getting down to the wire, and this being Washington, a lot of obstacles could yet emerge.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              How close is “close”?
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             Negotiators have narrowed their differences and are just $70 billion in spending cuts away from a deal,
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              according to Reuters
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             . Speaker Kevin McCarthy said yesterday that he’ll stay in Washington during Memorial Day weekend to ensure a deal gets done.
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             Emerging details suggest that both parties would be able to claim some victories:
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               Domestic spending over two years would be capped, though by how much remains a sticking point. (Republicans had initially
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                wanted 10 years
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               .) Defense spending would be allowed to rise 3 percent per year, in line with President Biden’s budget request.
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               In a win for Republicans, Congress would take back $10 billion of the $80 billion it had allocated to the I.R.S. to bolster enforcement.
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               Still being hashed out are stiffer work requirements for social safety net programs and an overhaul of how domestic energy and power projects are approved.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              It’s still unclear whether any such deal has enough support in Congress.
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             On the right, Republicans including
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              Senator Mike Lee of Utah
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             and the 35 House lawmakers associated with
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              the House Freedom Caucus
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             are demanding even deeper spending cuts. On the left,
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              Representative Pramila Jayapal
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             , the Washington Democrat who leads the 101-member House Progressive Caucus, predicted “a huge backlash” if the White House caved to Republican demands.
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             For his part, McCarthy told reporters, “I don’t think everybody is going to be happy at the end of the day.”
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             A MESSAGE FROM
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            <a style="-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;display:block">
             <p style="font:700 20px/28px georgia,serif;color:#121212;margin:0 0 4px">
              Cash management 101
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              Crafting your start-up’s cash management strategy? First, divide your funds into three categories: liquid, short-term and strategic. From there, it’s about optimizing for risk and yield according to those time horizons. But how much should you put in each category?
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              Learn more
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              The stakes are getting higher.
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             The Treasury Department said on Wednesday that
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              its cash balance
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             had sunk to just under $50 billion, down from $140 billion on May 12. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said the government could run out of cash as soon as June 1.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Meanwhile, Wall Street is also keeping its eye on other economic developments. At 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the Commerce Department will publish its latest personal consumption expenditures data, which tracks inflation; a strong reading could help convince the Fed to be less aggressive in raising interest rates next month.
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             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The Supreme Court further restricts the E.P.A.’s power.
             </span>
             The high court limited the agency’s
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              authority over wetlands
             </a>
             , in the second decision over the past year to circumscribe the regulator’s powers. But
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Justice Brett Kavanaugh
             </a>
             sided with liberal colleagues in warning that a majority-backed test for determining E.P.A. jurisdiction contradicted previous Supreme Court rulings and could lead to more pollution.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Carl Icahn claims a partial seat in his fight with Illumina.
             </span>
             Shareholders in the gene-sequencing company backed the activist investor’s effort to
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              oust its chairman
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             , though they rejected his two other candidates for the board; shares in Illumina fell 9 percent yesterday. Meanwhile, shares in Icahn’s publicly traded investment vehicle, which has been criticized by a short seller, tumbled yesterday
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              to a yearslong low
             </a>
             .
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              Norway’s sovereign wealth fund sides with environmental activists.
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             The $1.4 trillion investor said it will support
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              shareholder proposals at Chevron and Exxon Mobil
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             calling on the two to cut their greenhouse gas emissions. But the Norway fund has been criticized by activists for not making similar demands at European oil giants like BP and Total.
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              Elon Musk’s brain-implant company can conduct human trials.
             </span>
             The F.D.A. will
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              let Neuralink test out its devices
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             — which can decipher brain signals and link them to computers — on people. Musk’s start-up is among the most ambitious companies in the nascent sector, but has faced scrutiny over
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              accusations of animal cruelty
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             .
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                 <span class="css-2zlgwg" style="margin:0;font:normal 12px georgia,serif;color:#666">
                  Peter Orszag has risen through the ranks of Washington and Wall Street.
                 </span>
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                  Patrick T. Fallon/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
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             Lazard crowns its next leader
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             It’s official:
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              Lazard announced today
             </a>
             that Peter Orszag, who leads its core financial advisory business, will succeed Ken Jacobs as its C.E.O. on Oct. 1. (Jacobs, who held the role for 14 years, will stay on as executive chairman and continue to advise clients.)
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Orszag, a former Obama administration official who regularly appears on CNBC and Bloomberg Television, will oversee a 175-year-old financial institution with a long history of advising on major corporate deals — at a time when its mainstay business faces huge challenges.
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              Orszag has been the heir apparent for some time.
             </span>
             While Lazard didn’t say when its succession planning began, Orszag, 54, wrote to employees this morning that the move followed a “selection process that has been in the works for quite some time.”
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             An economist by training, he rose through the ranks in Washington and on Wall Street — he worked for both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, as well as at Citigroup — giving him a useful background to running one of the world’s most prominent independent banks.
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              But he will confront a tough time for investment banks.
             </span>
             Deal making was down 40 percent year-on-year for the year through yesterday, according to Refinitiv. And rising interest rates, increasingly tough antitrust enforcement and a slowing economy make a resurgence in big-ticket M.&amp;A. unlikely anytime soon.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             That has hit Lazard, which said last month that it was
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              laying off 10 percent
             </a>
             of its work force; the bank’s shares have fallen 11 percent since then. The firm isn’t alone: Rivals like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have also cut staff.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              A top priority for Orszag is growing Lazard’s asset management business,
             </span>
             which oversees more than $200 billion of assets and represents 40 percent of its business. Asset management has become popular among Wall Street banks as a steady source of revenue that can offset volatility in investment banking; Orszag told employees that growth could come from acquisitions.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             In the internal memo, Orszag also wrote that the firm’s culture “must continue to evolve to support our growth and ambition, while retaining many of our best qualities that harken back to our roots.” (One priority he mentioned was “diversity and work from home flexibility.”)
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The firm will announce other changes to its management before October. One name to watch closely is Ray McGuire, the former Citi rainmaker that Lazard hired in March.
            </p>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             “Our industry is obsessed with these huge batteries, and I think that is maybe not the right approach. We should make the battery as small as possible.”
            </h2>
           </td>
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             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              —
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               Jim Farley
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              , the C.E.O. of Ford. On a Twitter Spaces event yesterday with Elon Musk, the C.E.O. of Tesla, to announce a charging-station alliance, Farley acknowledged that electric carmakers may need to rethink battery design to reduce charging times and vehicle prices.
             </span>
            </p>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Microsoft joins A.I.’s “regulate us” campaign
            </h2>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Brad Smith, Microsoft’s president, became the latest tech executive to call on governments to
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              devise new rules
             </a>
             to police the development of artificial intelligence. His calls come amid a boom in commercial efforts to advance technology that is driving an impressive stock market rally.
            </p>
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             It’s the latest sign that the tech industry is betting on outreach to regulators as the best way to head off more onerous regulation — but it’s unclear whether governments will craft rules these companies would like.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
         <tbody>
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           <td align="left">
            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              “Government needs to move faster,”
             </span>
             Smith told The Times’s David McCabe, proposing moves like requiring an emergency brake for A.I. systems used in critical infrastructure and licenses for creating “highly capable” A.I. models.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td align="left">
            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             But Smith also acknowledged that A.I. developers need to show restraint in creating new products with potentially broad, and negative, social consequences, and said that Microsoft wasn’t trying to pass the buck onto government regulators. “There is not an iota of abdication of responsibility,” he said.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td align="left">
            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The message echoes calls from other top A.I. executives.
             </span>
             Sam Altman, the C.E.O. of OpenAI (which counts Microsoft as a top investor and business partner), told lawmakers last week that Congress should create a new A.I. regulator. And Sundar Pichai, the chief of Alphabet, called on trans-Atlantic regulators to
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              work together
             </a>
             to create effective new rules.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td align="left">
            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Proactively calling for more regulation is a playbook used by other industries, including social media and crypto, with mixed results: Congress largely hasn’t written many new laws to oversee social networks, to the consternation of several lawmakers.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              But A.I. executives’ tolerance for new regulations goes only so far.
             </span>
             Altman warned yesterday that OpenAI may
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              pull services like ChatGPT from European markets
             </a>
             if Brussels moves forward with expansive A.I. legislation. “We will try to comply, but if we can’t comply we will cease operating,” he said.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
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       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              In other A.I. news:
             </span>
             JPMorgan Chase is reportedly
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              developing a chatbot
             </a>
             to help clients make investment decisions, according to CNBC. And the tech evangelist Cathie Wood missed out on $560 billion paper gains by
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              selling its holdings in Nvidia
             </a>
             early this year.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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           </td>
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        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
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           <td style="padding:0;font-size:0;border-top:8px solid #000">
            <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:8px 0 25px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
             THE SPEED READ
            </h3>
           </td>
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       </div>
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              Deals
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            <ul class="css-27qc8p" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               “Inside Disney and Comcast’s Fight
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Over the Future of Hulu
               </a>
               ” (WSJ)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               JPMorgan Chase reportedly plans to
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                lay off about 1,000 First Republic employees
               </a>
               , a month after buying the troubled lender. (Bloomberg)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               National Amusements, the investment vehicle of the Redstone family and the controlling shareholder of Paramount Global, will get a
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                $125 million investment
               </a>
               from the investment firm BDT &amp; MSD. (Hollywood Reporter)
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Policy
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            <ul class="css-27qc8p" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The Supreme Court ruled that states
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                cannot keep any windfalls
               </a>
               gained from seizing private property and selling it to recoup tax debt. (NYT)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and her Chinese counterpart, Wang Wentao, met amid
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                tensions over China’s ban
               </a>
               of the U.S. chipmaker Micron. (WSJ)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The S.E.C.’s record-breaking $279 million whistleblower award was reportedly paid to a tipster whose evidence led to a
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                bribery settlement against Ericsson
               </a>
               . (WSJ)
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Best of the rest
             </span>
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
         <tbody>
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           <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
            <ul class="css-27qc8p" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               A judge
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                dismissed a lawsuit against Leon Black
               </a>
               , the billionaire co-founder of Apollo, accusing him of sexual misconduct. (FT)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Unpaid taxes and missing bottles of expensive wine: Customers want to know
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                what happened at Sherry-Lehmann
               </a>
               , the iconic New York wine store. (NYT)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Inside a plan by Sergey Brin, the billionaire co-founder of Google, to
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                bring back airships
               </a>
               . (Bloomberg Businessweek)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Finland was so awash in nuclear and hydroelectric power this week that some of its spot energy prices
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                went negative
               </a>
               . (Insider)
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
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