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   DealBook: Flying blind
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   Also, counting the costs of the government shutdown.
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             October 3, 2025
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          Good morning. Andrew here. No news is supposed to be good news. But that’s not the case when it comes to the jobs data we likely won’t be getting today because of the government shutdown. That could create all sorts of headaches for economists and Wall Street. We’ve got a full rundown below.
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          We’re also looking at the subsidies farmers may soon be getting from the Trump administration for losses they’re suffering because of the trade war. Will other industries that have been hurt by the tariffs get anything? Should they?
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          Let us know
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          what you think. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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          Sign up here.
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          )
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            <span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
             What’s the true state of the labor market?
            </span>
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             Frederic J. Brown/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Second-string data
         </span>
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         <span>
          For Wall Street, the first Friday of the month usually means one thing: jobs day, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes payroll data. That is
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          looking unlikely today
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
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         <span>
          The federal shutdown and suspension of nonessential services means the numbers probably won’t be published this morning, depriving markets of key economic information. That has rekindled a debate about the reliability of data collected by private firms, and how that information could be used for big economic and investment decisions.
         </span>
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         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The latest:
         </span>
         <span>
          S&amp;P 500 futures are pointing to a solid open after the index hit another record yesterday. Lifting investors’ spirits were economic reports that don’t normally get much heed, including payroll estimates from the H.R. data provider Revelio Labs and layoff estimates from the consulting firm Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas. Those readouts took on greater importance when the Labor Department didn’t publish its latest jobless claims report, which is typically released on Thursdays.
         </span>
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         <span>
          Something similar happened on Wednesday, when the S&amp;P 500 rose after
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          a report by the payroll processor ADP
         </a>
         <span>
          showed that employers shed 32,000 jobs last month. Investors read that as a sign that the Fed might further cut interest rates to bolster a sluggish labor market.
         </span>
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          But the private data looks messy.
         </span>
         <span>
          Many on Wall Street have griped about the quality of official government figures, but nonofficial data has its own issues. While ADP’s report depicted a weakening labor market, the Revelio and Challenger reports suggested the opposite. (That said, Challenger warned that
         </span>
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          widespread planned furloughs
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         <span>
          darkened the employment picture.)
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         <span>
          “It is more difficult than usual to measure the state of the U.S. labor market, with gold-standard economic indicators produced by the federal government unavailable during the shutdown,” Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, wrote in an investor note yesterday. His take: The job market “is still in a low hire, low fire, low gear mode.”
         </span>
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         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Adding to the frustration:
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          William Beach
         </a>
         <span>
          , a former commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, wrote this week that “the jobs report is likely written in final draft and could be released” today.
         </span>
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         <span>
          That prompted Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, to demand that the bureau
         </span>
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          release it on schedule
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          , saying it was vital information for the Fed as it weighed action on rates.
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            </span>
           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td style="padding-bottom:15px;border-bottom:1px solid #dcdcdc">
           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td height="20">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          For now, the markets are flying blind.
         </span>
         <span>
          Economists polled by Bloomberg anticipate on average that employers added 53,000 jobs last month, compared to 64,000 in August. A reminder: These reports have
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          packed plenty of surprises
         </a>
         <span>
          lately.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td height="30">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <td style="padding:0;font-size:0;border-top:8px solid #000">
           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </span>
           </h3>
          </td>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Tesla sales bounce up as federal E.V. subsidies end.
         </span>
         <span>
          The automaker’s
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          global sales rose 7.4 percent
         </a>
         <span>
          after two quarters of steep declines, as U.S. customers rushed to use a $7,500 tax credit before it expired this week. In other Tesla news, a California couple sued the company over the death of their daughter in a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Cybertruck crash
         </a>
         <span>
          , arguing that faulty door design made it nearly impossible for her to escape the burning vehicle.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Gov. Gavin Newsom of California pushes back against a Trump university demand.
         </span>
         <span>
          Newsom said
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          he would pull “billions”
         </a>
         <span>
          from any school in the state that agreed to an administration demand that they ban the use of race or sex in hiring, impose a cap on international students and comply with other demands in exchange for preferential access to federal funds. The White House has threatened to cut more than $500 million in funds for U.C.L.A. over allegations of antisemitism and bias; a federal judge later ordered that money restored.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Paramount nears deal to make Bari Weiss editor in chief of CBS News.
         </span>
         <span>
          The media company is expected to give the journalism entrepreneur
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          significant oversight over its news division
         </a>
         <span>
          as part of a $150 million takeover of her start-up, The Free Press, The Times reports. The appointment is likely to create more tension within CBS News after Paramount agreed to settle a lawsuit by President Trump and after the executive producer of “60 Minutes” stepped down, citing encroachment on the program’s journalistic independence.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
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           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr aria-hidden="true">
           <td>
            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
             <img alt="Ad" border="0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fliveintent.newyorktimesinfo.com%252Fimp%253Fs%253D1053700%2526li%253DDK%2526m%253Ddfbfebeec3e396a6cb1a8b032a80246c%2526p%253DDK_20251003%2526stpe%253Ddefault/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZsaXZlaW50ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3NTk0OTIzMTguOTE3NTQ1Nn0:1v4eKM:ayJq5LEBNqKnANNc3i7p9pREbgBJaXTjCl3QhfJAvSk" style="max-width:96px;margin-bottom:7px"/>
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           </td>
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           <td height="20">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Apple removes apps that track ICE activity from its app store.
         </span>
         <span>
          The tech giant said that it would ban software, such as ICEBlock, that allows users to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          anonymously report sightings
         </a>
         <span>
          of Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers, following pressure from Attorney General Pam Bondi. “ICEBlock is designed to put ICE agents at risk just for doing their jobs,” Bondi said. The software has been downloaded more than a million times since it was added to the App Store in April.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td height="10">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td height="8" style="background-color:#000;font-size:0;line-height:0" width="100%">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td height="20">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Counting the shutdown toll
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          With the government shutdown entering its third day, the political and economic costs are adding up. And with Republicans and Democrats at loggerheads, political observers expect the standoff to continue for a lot longer.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Here’s the latest:
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The White House projected that the U.S. would
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                lose $15 billion in G.D.P
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                . per week and that a monthlong stoppage could result in 43,000 more unemployed people, according to Politico. Officials also warned that Americans could face air travel disruptions — in previous shutdowns, absenteeism tripled for air traffic controllers, who work without pay during them.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Senior officials have warned the White House that firings during the shutdown could
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                face legal challenges
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , given a law that forbids the government to incur expenses — such as layoff severance pay — during a government closure, The Washington Post reports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared to play down threats of mass layoffs,
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                calling them a “talking point.”
               </a>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Administration officials are discussing
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                extending Obamacare health insurance subsidies
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                that expire at the end of the year, The Wall Street Journal reports, given potential voter anger over any lapse in funding.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Prediction markets suggest the shutdown could last for a while.
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          More than two-thirds of bettors on Kalshi
         </a>
         <span>
          expect the government to remain closed for more than 10 days, with 46 percent wagering it will stay shut for more than 15 days.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
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           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          A price tag for farm aid
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          This week, we reported about the pressure on President Trump to help a major U.S. industry hit by the trade war: farming,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          especially for soybeans
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Now we have a better sense of what that might cost.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The administration is weighing an aid package of $10 billion to $14 billion,
         </span>
         <span>
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          The Wall Street Journal reports
         </a>
         <span>
          . Much of that would most likely go to soybean farmers, who are harvesting another huge crop but are selling less to their longtime major customer, China.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The Journal notes that U.S. soybean exports to China from January through August totaled about 200 million bushels, down from nearly one billion the same time a year ago. That, coupled with the high yield, is pushing prices down significantly.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Actually getting the money could be tricky, however.
         </span>
         <span>
          Republicans’ big domestic policy bill took money away from the Commodity Credit Corporation, which the president used for farm aid in his first term.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          This time around, Trump is seeking to draw from the government’s tariff revenues: It collected about $149 billion in customs duties from January to August. But there are issues with using that money, as DealBook has previously noted, including the potential need for Congress to authorize spending those funds.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          That said, FarmProgress has noted that Trump may seek other ways to gain access to tariff revenue for farmers, including by
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          declaring an emergency
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The wild card:
         </span>
         <span>
          Can Trump persuade Xi Jinping, China’s president, to increase Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans? The leaders are expected to meet in South Korea in several weeks.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center">
            <img alt='A blue bubble with white text that reads, "How do you use A. I.? What are your best use cases?" Another bubble underneath indicates a pending response.' class="css-xsf469" height="167" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F06%252F27%252Fbusiness%252Fdb-talking-ai-new%252Fdb-talking-ai-new-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NTk0OTIzMTguOTE3OTk4OH0:1v4eKM:4Oj4nIRc51TN5Y2uEwMYrjEJHwfZ5pX5w-fOUjmY0KM" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:0" width="500"/>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Talking A.I. With the Chief Executive of SS&amp;C
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          Every week, we’re asking a chief executive how he or she uses generative artificial intelligence. SS&amp;C, a major investment fund administrator and transfer agency, acquired the automation software company Blue Prism for around $1.6 billion in 2022. William Stone, its C.E.O., explained how SS&amp;C had deployed increasingly sophisticated digital workers in its business. The interview has been edited and condensed.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          How do you personally use A.I.?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          I’m interested in horse racing, and I own horses. I use A.I. to track how they’re doing. There are all kinds of statistics, like how far can they travel before their performance starts to deteriorate: If they’re in Kentucky, can they go to California? Can they go to New York?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          What directives have you given your employees on A.I.?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          We bought Blue Prism, and we call ourselves, “customer zero.” What we’ve learned in deploying digital workers, which we’re now infusing with agentic A.I., is you have to have a very senior management directive.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          In the first phases, we’ve probably saved the cost of 2,500 full-time employees. Our revenue has grown about $800 million, and our head count is the same. We’re not really laying people off, but they’re getting different jobs: The ones where you’re thinking all the time, you’re not doing all the stuff.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          With private credit, private loans, there are a lot of agent notices. Before, we’d have somebody look at the notice, put in the data and go through several processes to be able to post it. Now agents do all that, and we’re monitoring it.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          So now you have time enough to look at that data and try to make heads or tails out of it. You move up in what you do.
         </span>
        </p>
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          We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support.
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             THE SPEED READ
            </span>
           </h3>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Deals
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners is reportedly in talks to buy Aligned Data Centers, valuing the A.I. specialist
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                at roughly $40 billion
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                . MGX, an Emirati investment firm, is also said to be weighing an investment. (Bloomberg)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                U.S. government stake
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                in Intel has jumped to $16 billion after a rally. (CNBC)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                “
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               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
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