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   DealBook: Freed bird?
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   Also, Black Friday for Amazon comes early.
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             October 28, 2022
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                  The Chief Twit is in the house.
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                  Suzanne Cordeiro/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             But wait… More big decisions loom for Musk
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             It’s official:
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              Elon Musk owns Twitter
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             . Shortly after closing his $44 billion takeover of the social network, Musk, who changed his Twitter bio to read “Chief Twit,”
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              tweeted
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             that “the bird is freed,” ushering in the Musk era of social media.
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             But the mood at Twitter isn’t exactly celebratory right now. The company’s 7,500 employees are afraid they may lose out on compensation Musk pledged to pay, while questions are arising about whether Tesla employees should be walking through Twitter’s halls.
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              Twitter’s employee compensation program is what everyone’s talking about.
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             The program just happens to vest on Tuesday, and employees could be due total payouts well exceeding $100 million. As part of his deal with the social network, Musk agreed to make those payouts in cash. But the fear among employees, DealBook has learned, is that he may race to lay them off before they get their money.
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             It’s unclear whether Musk would be a good corporate citizen and pay out fired employees anyway — or whether he will stick to his word for those he chooses to keep. If Musk reneges on his pledge, expect to see former workers taking him to court.
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              Meanwhile, Musk is already bringing in employees from his other companies,
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             including
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              asking engineers from Tesla
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             to meet with Twitter product managers. Corporate governance experts would likely question whether it’s acceptable practice to use resources from a public company to benefit what’s, at least in theory, an entirely different one.
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             Musk has been accused of conflicts of interest related to his ownership of multiple companies before, notably during Tesla’s
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              acquisition of the solar panel company SolarCity
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             .
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              Twitter is also relatively leaderless at the moment.
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             In a widely anticipated move, Musk fired Twitter’s four top executives — Parag Agrawal, its C.E.O.; Ned Segal, its C.F.O.; Vijaya Gadde, its head of legal policy; and Sean Edgett, its general counsel — shortly after closing his deal. “Golden parachute” provisions in their contracts mean they may be owed
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              more than $200 million
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             , though it’s unclear whether Musk will pay them out.
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             For now, Musk is Twitter’s C.E.O., but given that he also holds that role at Tesla, SpaceX and the Boring Company, he’ll have to quickly fill out the social network’s C-suite to keep it functioning. (As an aside, it’s worth noting that Jack Dorsey, the Twitter co-founder and former C.E.O. who encouraged Musk to buy the company, has remained silent on all of this.)
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              And all eyes are on how Musk will handle moderation.
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             In an
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              open letter to advertisers
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             yesterday, Musk said he wants the social network to be a digital town square where a “wide range of beliefs can be debated in a healthy manner without resorting to violence” — without becoming a “free-for-all hellscape where anything can be said with no consequences!”
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             But Musk has also said
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              he would lift bans
             </a>
             on the likes of Donald Trump. (Supporters of the former president are waiting with bated breath: “The bird is free,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              now free the GOAT
             </a>
             ,” tweeted Representative Lauren Boebert, Republican of Colorado.)
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             That could have broad implications for Twitter, beyond its ability to hold onto advertisers: “To the extent that world leaders see they have this space and it’s unmoderated, they could push to see how far they can go,” David Kaye, a law professor at the University of California, Irvine, told The Times.
            </p>
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            <h3 class="css-132hdgt" style="color:#000;font:700 16px/24px arial,sans-serif;margin:8px 0 25px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </h3>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              U.S. mortgage rates surpass 7 percent.
             </span>
             Rates for the average 30-year fixed mortgage have now reached
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              their highest level since 2002
             </a>
             , according to a survey by Freddie Mac. That’s likely to put further pressure on the housing market, which is already in the midst of a slowdown.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The Bank of Japan keeps rates ultralow.
             </span>
             Japan’s central bank
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              left rates unchanged
             </a>
             , making it an outlier in not moving them higher to curb inflation. The yen continued to weaken against the dollar; analysts think it could
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              reach a three-decade low
             </a>
             despite interventions by the Japanese government.
            </p>
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             Continue reading the main story
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              Britain weighs $57 billion in tax increases and spending cuts.
             </span>
             The country’s new (and
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              wealthy
             </a>
             ) prime minister, Rishi Sunak, is exploring ways to
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              raise 50 billion pounds
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             to help fill a hole in public finances. That figure could come down if the Bank of England persuades markets that it can fight inflation while raising interest rates by
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              less than expected
             </a>
             , The Financial Times reports.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Kanye West’s law firms cut ties with him, too.
             </span>
             Cadwalader and Greenberg Traurig both said they had either
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              stopped representing the rapper and designer
             </a>
             or plan to, joining the likes of Adidas and CAA. Ye, as he’s now known, posted on Instagram that he
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              lost $2 billion in one day
             </a>
             , as corporate partners dropped him.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Peloton’s co-founder pledges nearly half his shares to cover margin calls.
             </span>
             John Foley, who resigned as executive chairman last month, has
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              pledged 6.7 million shares
             </a>
             — or 41 percent of his holdings — to cover margin loans, according to a regulatory filing. That’s nearly double what he had pledged a year ago, as Peloton’s stock price has cratered.
            </p>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Black Friday comes early for Amazon
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             It’s shaping up to be a rough Christmas — and even rougher trading session today — for Amazon. Its shares plunged more than 13 percent in premarket trading, wiping $150 billion off its market capitalization, after the e-commerce giant forecast its
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              slowest holiday sales growth in years
             </a>
             .
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Amazon reported disappointing results, too.
             </span>
             Sales were up, but all of the company’s profits came from Amazon Web Services, its cloud computing division. The rest of the company, including its core retailing operations, lost nearly $3 billion in the quarter.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              It’s been a brutal week for Big Tech.
             </span>
             Yesterday, shares in Facebook’s owner, Meta, lost nearly a quarter of their market value, about $85 billion, reinforcing how pessimistic investors are about the prospects for big portions of the FAMG — Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet’s Google — grouping of mega-cap tech stocks. Amazon is set to open trading this morning at a price last seen in April 2020; investors have knocked nearly $1 trillion in market value off the stock since last November.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The U.S. consumer is cutting back.
             </span>
             Earlier in the day,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              the government reported that G.D.P. rose 2.6 percent
             </a>
             in the third quarter on an annualized basis. That was faster than analysts were expecting, but the data also signaled that U.S. consumers, the engine of the economy, aren’t spending like they were during the pandemic.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Amazon signaled that it was likely to follow the advice of its founder Jeff Bezos,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              who tweeted last week
             </a>
             that it was time to “batten down the hatches.” Amazon’s C.F.O., Brian Olsavsky, said on a call with analysts that consumers’ budgets had tightened and that Amazon, like other companies, was preparing for a “slower growth period.”
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Apple, though, provided a bit of rosy news.
             </span>
             Profits at the company,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              which also reported its earnings yesterday
             </a>
             , were up slightly versus a year ago, bucking the drop at most of its tech rivals. Sales in nearly all of the company’s segments were up, including in China, which had dipped in the last quarter.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Nonetheless, Tim Cook, Apple’s C.E.O., signaled that the company was facing inflationary pressures and a stronger dollar, which is making its products more expensive overseas.
            </p>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             “The hubris here is extraordinary, and I apologize. This situation is almost a rogue situation.”
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              —
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               Jim Cramer
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              , the CNBC commentator and host of the “Mad Money” stock-picking program, on Meta’s big uptick in spending. Cramer said in June that Meta shares had “nowhere else to go but up.”
             </span>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             How CS First Boston stacks up
            </h2>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Of all the parts of
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Credit Suisse’s big reorganization
             </a>
             that was announced yesterday, the plan to spin out the Swiss bank’s advisory and capital markets business stood out. That’s not only because the move will resurrect the First Boston name after 16 years, but also because it heralds the return of a storied independent investment bank.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             But how does CS First Boston, as the new business will be known, stack up to its competitors?
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The back story:
             </span>
             Credit Suisse first partnered with First Boston — one of the bluest of blue-chip Wall Street firms — in the late 1970s. Envious of the fat profits that American investment banks were generating during the 1980s deal boom, Credit Suisse moved to
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              eventually take control
             </a>
             of First Boston by 1990. By 2006, the Swiss firm finally
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              retired the First Boston name
             </a>
             .
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Credit Suisse got what it wanted, sort of.
             </span>
             Its investment bank maintained a strong presence in businesses like advising on mergers and I.P.O.s. But despite its pedigree, it has largely operated in Wall Street’s middle tier since the mid-1990s:
            </p>
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             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               It cracked the top three in the M.&amp;A. advisory and equity capital markets categories just once since 1996, according to rankings by Refinitiv. It has had better luck in advising on I.P.O.s and debt capital markets, including leading on I.P.O.s in 2005.
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
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             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               By comparison, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs ranked in the top three for those businesses for nearly that entire period.
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              And CS First Boston faces plenty of challenges.
             </span>
             Credit Suisse executives were eager yesterday to point out the firm’s advantages over rivals, including longstanding expertise in capital markets. “We are convinced that we can create a unique, independent enterprise that will grow and create value over time,” Ulrich Körner, Credit Suisse’s C.E.O., told analysts.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             But there’s more competition now on Wall Street than ever. First Boston’s traditional rivals are still around, while newer advisory firms like BDT, Centerview Partners (which advised Credit Suisse on its strategic review), Moelis and PJT Partners have emerged.
            </p>
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                agreed to buy Arcmont
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               between Rogers, Shaw and Canada’s competition regulator over the telecom giants’ $15 billion merger have fallen apart. (Reuters)
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                by 2035
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                pay $740 million
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               to settle a yearslong tax dispute with the I.R.S. (Bloomberg)
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               Good news, apartment hunters: Demand for new rentals
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                has fallen precipitously
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                from The New York Post
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               yesterday was the work of a rogue employee, the newspaper said. (NYT)
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               “
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                Beyond Catastrophe: A New Climate Reality is Coming into View
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               .” (NYT Magazine)
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                $4,990 at-home ice bath
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               ? You wouldn’t be the first. (NYT)
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