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   DealBook: Getting to yes (again)
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   Also, the paradoxical labor market, explained.
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             October 6, 2022
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              Good morning. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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                  Patrick Pleul/Pool via A.P.
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             Will he or won’t he?
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             Elon Musk dropped a bombshell when he put his original $44 billion offer to buy Twitter back on the table, days ahead of a court battle over his monthslong effort to walk away from that very agreement.
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             But as the two try to hammer out a renewed deal, Twitter wants to make sure that Musk won’t back out this time, mindful of their lengthy and very public legal feud over the collapse of the first agreement.
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              Musk had quietly tried to cut the deal’s price tag in recent weeks,
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              The Times reported
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             . He initially sought a discount of as much as 30 percent, which would have valued the social media platform at about $31 billion. But offers of a potential price cut never led to meaningful negotiations or term sheets. Musk’s last effort narrowed the amount to a possible discount of about 10 percent.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Twitter is now focused on ensuring that Musk follows through this time.
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             It has sought reassurances about how the two sides could guarantee closing and a reaffirmation of the specifics in the previously agreed contract. It’s also considering options like court supervision of the closing process and requesting that Musk pay interest to compensate for delays.
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              Banks loom large.
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             A key issue is whether Musk will try to make the deal
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              contingent on debt financing
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             . Under the terms of the original agreement, he can walk away by paying a $1 billion breakup fee if this does not materialize.
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             The banks could argue that Musk’s antics have sufficiently damaged Twitter, enough to qualify as a so-called material adverse effect, letting them walk away. He could even try to foil his own deal by, for example, not signing a required letter certifying that Twitter is solvent.
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             Kathaleen McCormick, the judge overseeing the trial, would probably frown on any effort that could be seen as Musk sabotaging his own financing. (In a previous case, she forced an acquirer to follow through on “specific performance” of the agreed contract, adding that the buyers
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              did not use reasonable “best efforts” to secure the financing for the deal
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             . Musk is under the same contractual requirement.)
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             She could also force Musk to sue the banks under the New York law that governs them, demanding that they follow through on their commitments.
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              For now, the case goes on.
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             “The parties have not filed a stipulation to stay this action, nor has any party moved for a stay,” McCormick wrote in a legal filing on Wednesday. “I, therefore, continue to press on toward our trial set to begin on Oct. 17.”
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             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              U.S. mortgage demand hits a 25-year low.
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             Application activity fell to
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              its slowest pace since 1997
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             , according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The drop comes as 30-year fixed mortgage rates reached 6.75 percent, their highest level since 2006.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Louisiana plans to withdraw $794 million from BlackRock funds.
             </span>
             The state
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              cited BlackRock’s commitment
             </a>
             to investing that embraces environmental, social and corporate governance principles. It’s the latest instance of a red state pushing back against the money manager over E.S.G.
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              Britain’s finance minister will meet with bankers over mortgage turmoil.
             </span>
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Kwasi Kwarteng will discuss
             </a>
             the sudden withdrawal of home loan offers and skyrocketing interest rates after his fiscal policy proposals. The new government is
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              facing plunging polls
             </a>
             and
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              rebellious Conservative Party lawmakers
             </a>
             .
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              Uber’s former security chief is found guilty in data breach trial.
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             Joe Sullivan was charged with
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              not disclosing a 2016 hack
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             of the company’s customer and driver records to government regulators. The case could change how companies handle data breaches.
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             A ‘Fed pivot’? Not so fast.
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             More bad news for the global economy in the past 24 hours.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The World Trade Organization
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              cut its 2023 forecast
             </a>
             for global commerce as it expects rising inflation and higher interest rates to sap demand for goods and services. And OPEC Plus announced
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a bigger-than-expected cut in production
             </a>
             as the energy cartel, pushed by Saudi Arabia and Russia, aims to bolster oil prices. The decision created another headache for inflation-focused central bankers
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              and President Biden
             </a>
             ahead of midterm elections.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The markets’ reaction?
             </span>
             Stocks in Asia and Europe jumped this morning at the open, and U.S. futures had been gaining, too, adding to the down-is-up narrative that has dominated the markets in recent days, with the S&amp;P 500 notching its best two-day rally since the go-go days of
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              spring 2020
             </a>
             at the start of this week.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              What’s going on?
             </span>
             Investors are pinning their hopes on a big rethink by the Federal Reserve, hoping that policymakers will have little choice but to tap the brakes on interest rate hikes — or even cut rates — to avoid a nasty downturn as global growth slows.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             But the “Fed pivot” hypothesis has plenty of skeptics.
            </p>
           </td>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Andy Sparks, the head of portfolio management research at MSCI, sees little reason for the investor bullishness. “Yield curve movements over the past week and a half reflect a market belief that the Fed will pivot earlier in 2023 than previously thought. But there is scant new economic data to support this view,” he told DealBook. “Investors with strong beliefs that the pivot will come sooner rather than later may be disappointed.”
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Spoiler: Fed policymakers see more interest rate increases.
             </span>
             Mary Daly, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              told Bloomberg yesterday
             </a>
             that the priority was to bring down inflation, which the Cleveland Fed’s data shows is
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              still running hot
             </a>
             . That means “staying the course” on raising interest rates, Daly said.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             One silver lining for inflation hawks has been crude oil prices, a big factor in calculating core inflation, which have been below $100 a barrel for the past month. But that, too, is looking less promising. Brent crude was trading at $93.30 at 6 a.m. Eastern this morning. It’s climbed roughly 7 percent this week.
            </p>
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                <img class="css-17i7zb3" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2022%252F10%252F06%252Fbusiness%252F06DB-markets%252F06DB-markets-articleLarge.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1ogPss:mkiYxDHC0xWw1s1PGSOwLwYW0aN4Jgs5IstKIaewZnk" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;height:auto;padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0"/>
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                 </span>
                 <span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:0;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  The New York Times
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                </span>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Making sense of the puzzling jobs market
            </h2>
           </td>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Inflation is high,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              output is down
             </a>
             and fears of a recession are looming. But even as the job market has
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              begun to show signs of cooling
             </a>
             , it’s still quite strong.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Analysts expect tomorrow’s jobs report to show a healthy increase of 250,000 jobs in September (compared with an increase of 315,000 new jobs in August) and an unemployment rate remaining near a five-decade low.
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Data released Tuesday
             </a>
             showed that even as the number of job openings dipped significantly in August, the number of openings per unemployed worker was around the highest proportion on record, and the number of layoffs remained below the historical average.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              There are few signs that the strong job market will fall off a cliff
             </span>
             . “We’re all waiting for the significant drop — the free fall — but that is not what we’re seeing,” Becky Frankiewicz, the North American president for ManpowerGroup, a global staffing agency,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              told The Times last month
             </a>
             . “As employment slows down in one industry, it picks up in another industry.”
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Why hasn’t there been a free fall? Here are two theories:
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Employers are hoarding talent.
             </span>
             Companies could be reluctant to reduce head count because they expect the next recession to be mild and short-lived, James Knightley, the chief international economist at ING, told DealBook. “Firms are likely to prefer to hold onto workers and ride out the storm,” Knightley said.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Companies didn’t have enough workers in the first place.
             </span>
             Because the job market has been so competitive, companies may actually be understaffed in key places, said Jason Furman, a professor of economic policy at Harvard. “So they were at six, wanted to go to 10,” he said. “Now they want to go to eight, but they’re still at six.” In other words, companies may need fewer workers than they did before the economy cooled, but they still need more workers than they have now.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              But that free fall may be on the horizon.
             </span>
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Amazon
             </a>
             ,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Meta
             </a>
             and
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              FedEx
             </a>
             are freezing some hiring. And
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a recent poll by KPMG
             </a>
             of more than 1,300 chief executives found that nearly 40 percent said they had done the same. “Hiring freezes are the first step before companies move into cost-cutting mode,” Knightley said. Furman said he also thought there was a good chance that a lot of layoffs were coming. “Productivity growth was a record negative in the first half of the year — so companies were not producing much output, but using lots of labor to produce it,” he said. “I’m not sure how sustainable that will be for them.”
            </p>
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                  Getty Images
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             China, the decider
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             Over the past decade, Beijing has been
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              the lender of choice
             </a>
             for many governments building bullet trains, hydroelectric dams, airports and superhighways. With global inflation on the rise and economies weakened, China has the power to decide whether to cut countries off, lend more or forgive portions of their debts,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              writes The Times’s Keith Bradsher.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              China’s loans loom large in corners near and far
             </span>
             . In Pakistan, overall public debt has more than doubled over the past decade, with loans from China growing fastest; in Kenya, public debt is up ninefold. As Pakistan has struggled to cope with a
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              devastating flood
             </a>
             , its loan repayments to China have been rising. Such loans were a hot-button political issue when Kenyans and Angolans went to the polls in
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              presidential elections in August
             </a>
             .
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              The nature of the loans compounds challenges.
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             China issues many loans at adjustable interest rates with repayment in dollars. With rates and the dollar rising quickly, poor nations are struggling to pay off the debt. So far, Beijing’s powerful government ministries have been slow to address the matter.
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              Global leaders want faster action.
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             “We’re constantly telling China that we want them to come to the table and participate in the Common Framework,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said, referring to a plan by the Group of 20 industrialized nations to relieve the debt burdens of dozens of poor countries. In August, Beijing forgave about 0.3 percent of its loans to African countries, focusing on 20-year-old defaulted debts, money that China was very unlikely to get back.
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             At the same time, Chinese officials based in some poor nations face unpleasant jobs as debt collectors. “You have a lot more influence when you’re providing the loan,” said Brad Setser, an international payments specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations, “than when you’re begging for repayment.”
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            <h3 class="css-132hdgt" style="color:#000;font:700 16px/24px arial,sans-serif;margin:8px 0 25px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
             THE SPEED READ
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              Deals
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               SoftBank is reportedly considering
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                selling its stake in TelevisaUnivision
               </a>
               , a Spanish-language broadcaster. (Bloomberg)
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               The English soccer club Everton F.C. is said to be in takeover talks with a
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                SPAC partly led by George Soros’s nephew
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               . (Bloomberg)
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               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Goldman Sachs is reportedly among the buyers
               </a>
               looking for bargain-priced assets being put up for sale by British pension funds after recent market turmoil. (FT)
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              Policy
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The Biden administration plans to
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                ease sanctions on Venezuela
               </a>
               , which would allow Chevron to begin pumping oil there. (WSJ)
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               Republican lawmakers criticized top Wall Street banks’ plans to attend a financial services conference
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                headlined by Hong Kong’s leader
               </a>
               as a defiance of U.S. sanctions against him. (Politico)
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               “She’s a Doctor. He Was a Limo Driver.
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                They Pitched a $30 Million Arms Deal
               </a>
               .” (NYT)
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Alec Baldwin and other producers have
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                settled a wrongful-death lawsuit
               </a>
               filed by the family of the cinematographer he fatally shot on the set of the movie “Rust.” (NYT)
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               Airbnb’s refund policy doesn’t cover hurricanes in Florida, because
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                they’re so common
               </a>
               . (Insider)
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             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The convicted scammer Anna Sorokin has been released from prison, but is
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                barred from social media
               </a>
               . (Bloomberg)
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