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   DealBook: Morgan Stanley’s post-Gorman era
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             October 26, 2023
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              Good morning. Save the date: The DealBook Summit will be on Nov. 29. Among the guests are Vice President Kamala Harris; Bob Iger, the C.E.O. of Disney; and Lina Khan, the F.T.C. chair. You can
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                  James Gorman, Morgan Stanley’s C.E.O., has a successor.
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                  Gabby Jones for The New York Times
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             Wall Street’s real-life “Succession” has ended
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             One of Wall Street’s most closely watched succession races is over as Ted Pick prepares to become
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              Morgan Stanley’s next chief executive
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             . He will take the baton in January from James Gorman, who since 2010 has transformed the firm from an investment bank into an asset-management behemoth.
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             The path laid out by Gorman has made Morgan Stanley the envy of the financial world and helped it outpace its longtime rival, Goldman Sachs. Pick will face the challenge of keeping the momentum going as volatile markets weigh down core businesses such as deal making.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Pick won a contest worthy of an HBO drama.
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              Morgan Stanley’s board selected him
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             over Andy Saperstein, who leads wealth management, and Dan Simkowitz, who oversees asset management. Those divisions have both been growing fast.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             But Pick, a Morgan Stanley lifer who oversees investment banking and trading, is familiar with the most complex parts of the firm, making him in some ways
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              the safest option
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             . (Morgan Stanley is seeking to keep Saperstein and Simkowitz, making both co-presidents and giving them expanded portfolios.)
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              Pick says he doesn’t plan to shift from Gorman’s strategy,
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             which had Morgan Stanley increasingly embrace the steadier business of money management over the more profitable but volatile work of investment banking. That approach involved buying businesses such as the online trading platform E-Trade and the asset manager Eaton Vance.
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             It has paid off handsomely. Morgan Stanley’s shares are up 62 percent over the past five years, and the firm has dodged the troubles that have dogged Goldman, which pursued an ill-fated detour into consumer banking.
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              Commentators have praised Gorman
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             , an Australian former consultant with no background in M.&amp;A. or high-risk trading, lauding his slow-and-steady approach.
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              But Pick must clear hurdles as well.
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             Morgan Stanley’s investment banking business is lagging Goldman’s and JPMorgan Chase’s. And regulators are investigating the firm over its
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              block-trading business
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             after bankers were accused of tipping off favored clients.
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             And then there’s the question of what’s next. One possibility that Gorman hinted at last week was international expansion: “I would be very surprised if this firm doesn’t do some transactions in both wealth and asset management over the next three years outside the U.S.,” he said.
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             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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              The House finally has a speaker.
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              Representative Mike Johnson
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             , a hard-right lawmaker from Louisiana, won enough support from his fellow Republicans to be elected, ending three weeks of paralysis in the chamber. Johnson is the
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              least-experienced speaker
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             in over a century and must focus on issues including avoiding a government shutdown next month and deciding on foreign aid for Israel and Ukraine.
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              Economists expect a blowout G.D.P. number today.
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             They forecast that the
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              third-quarter estimate
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             from the Commerce Department, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, will show its fastest pace in two years. That would defy fears of a recession and raise questions about whether the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.
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              The police in Maine search for an attacker who killed at least seven people.
             </span>
             Residents of multiple towns in the southern part of the state, as well as Bates College, were
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              under shelter-in-place orders
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             after fatal shootings at a bar and a bowling alley. The authorities named Robert Card, 40, a “person of interest.”
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             A breakthrough in the U.A.W. strikes
            </h2>
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         </tbody>
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       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The union last night reached a
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              tentative deal with Ford
             </a>
             on a four-year contract after a weekslong strike that has hit the three big Detroit automakers hard. Some observers called the agreement a “major victory for the union” that could set a new standard for labor negotiations across American industry.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              What’s in the deal:
             </span>
            </p>
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             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               A roughly 25 percent hourly pay increase over four years (the U.A.W. initially demanded a
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                40 percent raise
               </a>
               ). Two weeks ago, Ford offered a 23 percent increase.
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Cost-of-living wage adjustments, gains on pensions and job security, and the right to strike over plant closures.
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
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             Among
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              the unknowns
             </a>
             : issues like union representation at Ford’s battery plants, a key negotiating point as the auto giants push further into electric vehicles.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              U.A.W. officials and labor experts said that the deal vindicated the union’s bargaining tactic.
             </span>
             By striking simultaneously at Detroit’s Big Three — Ford, along with General Motors and Stellantis, Chrysler’s parent — and keeping them guessing about which plants would be affected, workers ensured the companies were constantly off balance.
            </p>
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              Investors cheered the breakthrough, too
             </span>
             , given the strike’s toll: Emmanuel Rosner, a Deutsche Bank analyst,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              estimated
             </a>
             that the work stoppages had cost the trio about $2.1 billion and wiped billions off their market value in the past month.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Shares in Ford are up in premarket trading. Shares in G.M. and Stellantis have risen, too, in anticipation that they will also quickly reach accords with the union.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The deal isn’t done yet
             </span>
             — that is contingent on approval from Ford’s 57,000 union members. (They can go back to work in the meantime.) President Biden, who
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              joined an autoworkers’ picket line
             </a>
             last month, praised the preliminary accord as “historic.”
            </p>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             A.I. isn’t enough to reverse the tech slump
            </h2>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Meta reported impressive earnings yesterday, driven by healthy ad sales and steep cost cuts. But that doesn’t appear to have lifted investor concerns that artificial intelligence isn’t propelling tech stocks as much as promised.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Nasdaq futures are down 1 percent this morning
             </span>
             after the tech-heavy index fell to a five-month low yesterday on the back of a steep sell-off in Alphabet. Shares in Google’s parent company shed
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              over $165 billion in market value
             </a>
             — its worst one-day drop since March 2020 — after it reported lackluster results in cloud computing, which customers need to power their A.I. initiatives.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Meta offered only a brief respite from the gloom,
             </span>
             reporting
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              quarterly profits that more than doubled
             </a>
             year-on-year, to $11.6 billion. It also disclosed strong user growth, with Threads, its rival to Elon Musk’s X, now claiming nearly 100 million users.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             But its stock is down in premarket trading amid investor fears that the ad business faces a slowdown. “
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              The revenue outlook is uncertain
             </a>
             ” for next year as the economy teeters, Susan Li, Meta’s C.F.O., told analysts yesterday.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              And Meta faces more unknowns.
             </span>
             The company’s “year of efficiency” appears headed to an end, as it prepares to
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              hire more engineers
             </a>
             , particularly those with A.I. expertise. Whether investors will welcome the end of cost-cutting to focus on A.I. is uncertain.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             There’s a clearer picture for the company’s Reality Labs division, which focuses on the metaverse. Losses there are expected to carry on into 2024.
            </p>
           </td>
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                <img class="css-17i7zb3" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2023%252F10%252F26%252Fmultimedia%252F26db-sbf-blgp%252F26db-sbf-blgp-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1qvyyL:qopUuIYgE_UmB1SMqGS9oyd3zLQNw-DsuAMJcaQMs3c" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;height:auto;padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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                 <span class="css-2zlgwg" style="margin:0;font:normal 12px georgia,serif;color:#666">
                  Sam Bankman-Fried, the former C.E.O. of the crypto trading exchange FTX, is set to testify in his fraud trial.
                 </span>
                 <span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  Andrew Kelly/Reuters
                 </span>
                </span>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Bankman-Fried prepares to take the stand
            </h2>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Sam Bankman-Fried’s criminal fraud trial resumed yesterday with his lawyers dropping the bombshell that he would
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              testify in the coming days
             </a>
             , a big legal gamble.
            </p>
           </td>
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       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Testifying is not uncommon for defendants in white-collar criminal fraud cases.
             </span>
             Elizabeth Holmes, founder of the blood-testing start-up Theranos, and
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
             </span>
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Ken Lay
             </a>
             and
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Jeff Skilling
             </a>
             , the former heads of Enron, have all taken the stand to defend themselves in recent years. (And just yesterday, Donald Trump
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              testified in his civil business fraud case
             </a>
             in New York about a gag order violation.)
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Their testimony didn’t seem to help much.
             </span>
             Holmes and Skilling
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
             </span>
             were found guilty and sentenced to prison. Lay was also convicted, but he died before sentencing.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Bankman-Fried has repeatedly turned to the media to tell his side of the story since his arrest last year. But taking the stand and portraying himself as a “visionary genius” could backfire,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Renato Mariotti
             </a>
             , a partner at Bryan Cave Leighton Paisner and
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
             </span>
             former prosecutor, told DealBook. The prosecution will also be waiting to capitalize on perceived misstatements or inconsistencies in Bankman-Fried’s story, Mariotti added.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              In addition to Bankman-Fried, the defense is planning to call three witnesses.
             </span>
             One is Joseph Pimbley, a financial services consultant, who is expected to testify about the finances of the crypto exchange FTX and its sister trading firm, Alameda Research. Those businesses, founded by Bankman-Fried, went bust, costing customers and investors billions. Bankman-Fried has pleaded not guilty.
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td align="left">
            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             A Bahamian lawyer involved in the case will also testify, as will an expert on the preservation of corporate records. Bankman-Fried is expected to testify after them.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             A tricky endeavor for Silver Lake
            </h2>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
         <tbody>
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           <td align="left">
            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Shares in the entertainment conglomerate Endeavor shot up as much as 25 percent after hours yesterday after its main backer, the private equity titan Silver Lake, said it was exploring a bid to take the company private.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Silver Lake is in prime position to make the move, since it owns 71 percent of the voting stock . But a deal to take full control of Endeavor, the Hollywood powerhouse of Ari Emanuel, may still be tricky.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              It’s clear why Endeavor wants to sell:
             </span>
             The company has long contended that it’s undervalued by public markets. Despite owning the talent agencies WME and IMG, as well as a controlling stake in TKO, the parent of
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Ultimate Fighting Championship and World Wrestling Entertainment
             </a>
             , Endeavor’s shares are down 35 percent since going public two years ago.
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Endeavor can thank a rival for potentially resetting price expectations.
             </span>
             The French billionaire François-Henri Pinault last month bought a majority stake in Creative Artists Agency, reportedly at a $7 billion valuation.
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Endeavor’s market capitalization is currently $8.5 billion — but nearly $7 billion of that is composed of the stake in TKO, suggesting that investors aren’t assigning much value to the bulk of Endeavor’s business.
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Silver Lake will have to navigate questions about conflicts of interest.
             </span>
             As both bidder and seller, it will have to prove that the sales process is completely fair. (It and Michael Dell
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              faced lawsuits
             </a>
             from minority investors over a similar deal to take Dell private a decade ago.)
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
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       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Such conflicts are usually handled by a special board committee. But Endeavor is set up as an
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Up-C
             </a>
             , which means that investors including Emanuel own shares in both Endeavor
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              and
             </span>
             a parent company. That may make it harder to figure out which shareholders are truly independent for deal approval purposes, making extra scrutiny from the courts likely.
            </p>
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            <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:8px 0 25px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
             THE SPEED READ
            </h3>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Deals
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Country Garden of China was deemed to have
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                defaulted on an interest payment
               </a>
               , raising questions about the future of the embattled real estate giant. (Bloomberg)
              </span>
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             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The billionaire financier Bill Ackman reportedly made a $200 million profit from his
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                bet against U.S. Treasury bonds
               </a>
               . (FT)
              </span>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Policy
             </span>
            </p>
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            <ul class="css-27qc8p" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Is Ken Griffin, billionaire financier and Republican megadonor, turning his attention
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                from Ron DeSantis to Nikki Haley
               </a>
               ? (Insider)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The G.O.P. donor Harlan Crow
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                forgave a $267,230 loan
               </a>
               that he made to Justice Clarence Thomas, according to a Senate inquiry, raising questions about ethics and taxes. (NYT)
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Best of the rest
             </span>
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            <ul class="css-27qc8p" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Shell plans to
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                cut 200 jobs
               </a>
               in its clean energy business, the latest sign that oil giants are
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                de-emphasizing efforts
               </a>
               to transition away from fossil fuels. (CNBC, NYT)
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               “Inside Google’s Plan to Stop Apple From
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                Getting Serious About Search
               </a>
               ” (NYT)
              </span>
             </li>
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