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DealBook: New Mideast economics
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<div style="width:100%;margin-bottom:31px;font:12px/12px georgia,serif">
October 14, 2025
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-style:italic">
Good morning. Andrew here. For the last eight years, I’ve been working on a book about 1929. I sought to write an in-the-room, character-driven narrative about that remarkable period in history, similar to my chronicle of the financial crisis of 2008, “Too Big to Fail.” Along the way, as I combed through transcripts and diaries in the archives, the parallels between the economics and politics of the 1920s and of today became almost eerie.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-style:italic">
As
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
“1929” publishes
</a>
<span style="font-style:italic">
today, I’ve written an
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
essay for The New York Times Magazine
</a>
<span style="font-style:italic">
, which will be in print this weekend, about some of those connections. This isn’t to say we will see a repeat of 1929. But there are some important lessons from that period that we shouldn’t forget to keep that from happening. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
Sign up here.
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)
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<img alt="A large crowd of people is seen on a street surrounded by destroyed buildings and rubble." class="css-3vswge" height="400" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F10%252F14%252Fmultimedia%252F14db-gaza-final-hzcb%252F14db-gaza-final-hzcb-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjA0NDM4NDEuNzQ4MjY1NX0:1v8drV:sKBeutQJouB97oeV3Ahs25HAgubLCtqMINWhBg1bD2s" style="width:100%;height:auto;display:block;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:8px" width="600"/>
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<span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
A fragile cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas has led to speculation over potential investments to rebuild Gaza.
</span>
<span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
Saher Alghorra for The New York Times
</span>
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<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
Peace, and deals, in the Middle East?
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
President Trump yesterday
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
declared the war in Gaza over
</a>
<span>
, even as big questions lingered over whether the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas would lead to a lasting peace.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The obstacles are many. Regional powers remain far apart on Gaza’s future. Security on the ground is precarious, with no clear idea of how to disarm fighters.
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
</span>
<span>
And then there are the questions of what it will cost to rebuild, and who will pay.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
But optimists hope that if the war ends, peace in Gaza could usher in a new wave of deal-making, including for mega-projects that had been frozen during the war, Vivienne Walt writes.
</span>
</p>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Some big deals were affected by the fighting.
</span>
<span>
BP and the Abu Dhabi-based ADNOC were closing in on an agreement to acquire a 50 percent stake in the Israeli company NewMed Energy, which oversees some of the mammoth natural gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean. But the
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
$2 billion deal was suspended
</a>
<span>
last year as Israeli bombs pummeled Gaza.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
“It was just too toxic for the U.A.E. to deepen economic relations with Israel at the time,” Jamie Ingram, a Middle East analyst and managing editor of the economic newsletter MEES, told DealBook. “This peace agreement could start to unlock investments,” he added.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The war did not stifle all business in the region.
</span>
<span>
Despite the global outrage over the war in Gaza, trade continued among countries that
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
signed the 2020 Abraham Accords
</a>
<span>
.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Israel did
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
$3.2 billion in trade
</a>
<span>
with the United Arab Emirates last year, up 11 percent year over year, according to The Times of Israel, citing government statistics. (That excluded software and government-to-government deals.)
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Among the big focuses of trade:
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
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<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
The U.A.E. has invested billions in new data centers to power its artificial intelligence ambitions — infrastructure that could see business from Israel’s tech industry. “You could see some real concrete tie-ups,” Ingram said.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Morocco
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
agreed this year to buy $120 million worth of military drones
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
from Israel Aerospace Industries, as Israel was seeking to turn its defense-tech expertise into a booming export.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
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</tbody>
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<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Chevron and Israeli energy companies signed a $35 billion deal with Egypt in August,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
agreeing to double
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
natural gas exports from the eastern Mediterranean by 2029 and positioning Israel to be a regional energy power.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Rebuilding a shattered Gaza will be costly.
</span>
<span>
That effort — including the construction of water and sanitation networks, hospitals, schools and thousands of homes —
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
could cost $53 billion
</a>
<span>
, the World Bank estimated in February.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The first projects could
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
start within months
</a>
<span>
, with financial support from Brussels, according to news reports.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
That may set off a scramble for lucrative contracts,
</span>
<span>
with big potential investors eyeing a huge opportunity. “My concern is you end up with backroom deals with private investment funds, Egypt, the Palestinian Authority and Israel,” Hugh Lovatt, an expert on Israeli and Palestinian issues for the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DealBook.
</span>
</p>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
<tbody>
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</td>
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<td style="padding:0;font-size:0;border-top:8px solid #000">
<h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
<span>
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
</span>
</h3>
</td>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Wall Street giants report solid results.
</span>
<span>
Just in:
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
JPMorgan Chase
</a>
<span>
easily beat analysts’ expectations on the strength of robust trading revenues and higher investment banking fees last quarter.
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
</span>
<span>
Shares in
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Goldman Sachs
</a>
<span>
fell in premarket trading despite the company’s results surpassing Wall Street forecasts. With a blackout on official government data during the shutdown, investors are turning to the banks for clues about the economy.
</span>
</p>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Silver soars while cryptocurrency slides.
</span>
<span>
The precious metal
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
set a record
</a>
<span>
yesterday, hitting $50.13 a troy ounce, as its annual performance outstrips even gold’s. It’s another sign that investors are seeking safe-haven assets amid renewed economic turbulence. Falling on the wrong side of the move is crypto, with
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Bitcoin sliding 12 percent
</a>
<span>
over the past week and other tokens dropping even more sharply.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The C.E.O. of First Brands resigns.
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Patrick James stepped down
</a>
<span>
from the bankrupt auto-parts maker as the fallout from its collapse
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
continued to spread
</a>
<span>
across the financial industry. James will be replaced on an interim basis by Charles Moore.
</span>
</p>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
<tbody>
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<td height="20">
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
The spat grows
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Investors are again weighing the possibility that the Trump administration’s efforts to reach a trade pact with China will come up short.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Rhetoric from Washington and Beijing, which has run hot and cold over the past week, has just gotten scalding with the latest comments by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Concerns about those tensions are showing in the markets this morning: Global stocks, S&P 500 futures and crude oil prices are in the red.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The latest:
</span>
<span>
Bessent
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
lashed out at China
</a>
<span>
in an interview with The Financial Times, warning that new restrictions on exports of rare-earth and other critical minerals could backfire. “Maybe there is some Leninist business model where hurting your customers is a good idea, but they are the largest supplier to the world,” he told The FT. “If they want to slow down the global economy, they will be hurt the most.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Hours earlier, Bessent had
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
suggested that relations were fine
</a>
<span>
, even expressing confidence that President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China were still set to meet this month to smooth over some of their differences.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Beijing isn’t backing down.
</span>
<span>
“
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
China’s position is consistent
</a>
<span>
,” a spokesperson for the country’s Commerce Ministry said today. “If there’s a fight, we’ll fight to the end; if there’s a talk, the door is open.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The Commerce Ministry is seen as a hard-liner influence within Beijing, seeking more say on the economy and trade talks, according to The FT, which adds that the ministry’s positions are beginning to alarm some close to Trump’s negotiators.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Both sides are continuing to escalate as well:
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
The Trump administration today began
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
charging a fee on Chinese ships
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
that dock at American ports, which is meant to weaken China’s global dominance in commercial shipping and shipbuilding.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Beijing
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
is imposing sanctions
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
on the American business entities of Hanwha Ocean, a South Korean shipping giant. Shares in Hanwha Ocean fell 6 percent today in Seoul.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Wall Street sees trouble ahead.
</span>
<span>
The S&P 500 could sink by as much as 12 percent (from yesterday’s close) if the U.S. and China don’t reach a truce by next month’s deadline, when retaliatory tariffs announced by Trump would kick in, Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
warned yesterday
</a>
<span>
.
</span>
</p>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
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<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
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<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
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</table>
<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
OpenAI’s tightrope act
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Another day, another mega-deal by OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT: It signed a partnership with Broadcom — its third with a major chipmaker in a month.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
But the more transactions that OpenAI strikes, the more complicated the increasingly vast business network around the artificial intelligence giant gets.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Yesterday’s deal further underscores OpenAI’s
</span>
<span>
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
data center ambitions.
</span>
<span>
The start-up will design chips with Broadcom and plans to start deploying them around the second half of next year. The goal: putting in play about 10 gigawatts’ worth of chips — enough to power millions of households. (
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Also involved in the project is Arm
</a>
<span>
, the chip designer controlled by SoftBank, according to The Information. Shares in Broadcom and Arm soared yesterday.)
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The deal came after OpenAI struck agreements to use several gigawatts’ worth of chips from Nvidia and AMD. Unlike those transactions, no equity is changing hands with Broadcom.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
OpenAI’s deal-making is setting up a tricky tightrope act:
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
The start-up is building a
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
team of rivals
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
to build out its data centers, leading to some unusual circumstances. For instance, money from the Nvidia investments could arguably be directed toward purchases of AMD chips — and in designing chips with Broadcom, OpenAI is
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-style:italic">
reducing
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
its reliance on Nvidia and AMD.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
The Nvidia deal will
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
dilute OpenAI’s existing investors
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
, including Microsoft, SoftBank and venture capital firms like Thrive Capital, The Financial Times notes. But OpenAI argues that everyone benefits if the agreement expands business: “Most people would prefer to have a smaller piece of a bigger pie,” an unnamed executive told The FT.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Expect more deals from OpenAI.
</span>
<span>
Among them will be ways to further support its data center initiatives, including
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
$25 billion in financing
</a>
<span>
for a 500-megawatt facility in Argentina. There will also be transactions to keep funding OpenAI’s huge running costs, something that skeptics worry about given the company’s enormous losses.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
But one of the start-up’s big business partners isn’t worried:
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
“Of course”
</a>
<span>
OpenAI can afford to pay $60 billion a year for cloud computing, Clay Magouyrk, a C.E.O. of Oracle, told CNBC.
</span>
</p>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
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<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
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<tbody>
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<td style="text-align:center">
<img alt="Three people are seen seated below a large blue screen that portrays the photographs of the 2025 Nobel Prize of Economics winners." class="css-xsf469" height="333" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F10%252F14%252Fmultimedia%252F14db-nobel-hqzw%252F14db-nobel-hqzw-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjA0NDM4NDEuNzQ5Mzg4Mn0:1v8drV:Gf9R3BgqfQKrmZA0ZkfKf5ouaaPYB5pgA9E3phCGR7k" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-top:6px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:12px">
<span class="css-1wuwhda" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:left">
<span class="css-1hnedf7" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt were awarded the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics.
</span>
<span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
Anders Wiklund/TT News Agency, via Associated Press
</span>
</span>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
The Nobel Prize that explains how we got rich
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
This year’s Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt for work that explains how the world has sustained — for the first time in history — two centuries of economic growth.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
In other words, they answer the question:
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
How did humans get so rich
</a>
<span>
?
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Mokyr explained that sustained economic growth requires two types of knowledge.
</span>
<span>
The first type is propositional knowledge, which is about knowing why things work, through fields like physics, mathematics and biology. The second is procedural knowledge, which is about knowing how to do things, like cook or operate a loom. At the start of the Industrial Revolution, Mokyr, an economic historian, argued that the two forms of knowledge were applied in a sustained and symbiotic way that led to two centuries of growth.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
“What Mokyr taught economists is that it’s not knowledge per se that makes the difference, but the way it is organized,” Anton Hughes, a historian,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
wrote
</a>
<span>
for the Substack “Works in Progress.” Mokyr received one half of the Nobel.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Aghion and Howitt explained the role of “creative destruction,”
</span>
<span>
an endless process in which new products displace older products. Aghion and Howitt, who split the second half of the award, argue that “competition for profit is what causes you to put in the effort to make a better product,” Brian Albrecht, the chief economist for the International Center for Law & Economics, told DealBook.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
“That in turn drives economic growth,” he added. For example, the
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
release of the iPhone
</a>
<span>
decimated BlackBerry’s market share.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The laureates warned that growth is not inevitable.
</span>
<span>
Immigration and
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
</span>
<span>
openness to trade are key components for growth, the winners
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
told The Times
</a>
<span>
. Aghion expressed optimism that A.I. could be a large growth driver, but favored policies that promoted competition and did not consolidate power to just a few winners.
</span>
</p>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
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<tr>
<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-style:italic">
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<h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
<span>
THE SPEED READ
</span>
</h3>
</td>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Deals
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Rayonier agreed to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
buy PotlatchDeltic
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
, a rival owner of timberland, for about $3.4 billion in stock. (Joint press release)
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
“Most
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
U.S. I.P.O.s Remain Stuck In Limbo
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Despite S.E.C.’s Shutdown Fix” (Bloomberg)
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Politics, policy and regulation
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
“Trump Allies Sold Sponsorships to What Appeared to Be a Treasury Event.
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
It Wasn’t.
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
” (WSJ)
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Democrats’ warnings about the costs of the government shutdown
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
aren’t helping them win points with voters
</a>
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about the broader economy, a new poll found. (Politico)
</span>
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Taylor Swift set another record
</a>
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with the debut of her latest album, “The Life of a Showgirl.” (Variety)
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</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
. (NYT)
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4 days, 16 hours ago - nytdirect@nytimes.com
DealBook: New Mideast economics
Also, trade war talk gets hotter again.View in browser|nytimes.comOctober 14, 2025Good morning. A...