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   DealBook: Private equity’s private credit problem
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   Also, oil prices storm back.
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             March 12, 2026
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         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Good morning. Andrew here.
         </span>
         <span>
          We’re going deep on the private credit freakout — and why there might be reason to be nervous about another corner of finance.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          We’re also focused on oil prices’ bounce-back and what that means for how the Fed thinks about interest rate cuts. More below. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Sign up here.
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          )
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            <span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
             Many on Wall Street worry that lenders like Blue Owl Capital aren’t the only potential casualties of a private credit bust.
            </span>
            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Brendan McDermid/Reuters
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Private credit isn’t the only pain point
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Hand-wringing over private credit has become
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          a parlor game
         </a>
         <span>
          on Wall Street, with major lenders seeing
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          their stocks hit
         </a>
         <span>
          and popular funds suffering
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          significant
         </a>
         <span>
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          withdrawals
         </a>
         <span>
          , now including at a fund
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          run by Morgan Stanley
         </a>
         <span>
          . The unease about the $1.7 trillion industry has investors and regulators asking: What happens when private credit breaks?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          It’s the right question. But many on Wall Street are quietly reminding one another about who else is at risk.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Private credit lenders won’t lose money before private equity firms do.
         </span>
         <span>
          That’s how the capital stack of companies work: Equity is the first in line for losses. Before lenders like Apollo Global Management, Blue Owl Capital or Ares Management lose a dollar on their loans if a portfolio company fails, the private equity owners will already have been hit.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Consider: In 2024, the roughly $4 billion in equity that Vista Equity Partners had in the education software company Pluralsight was
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          essentially reduced to zero
         </a>
         <span>
          when it handed the company over — to private credit lenders.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Who should we be watching?
         </span>
         <span>
          Perhaps firms like
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Vista and Thoma Bravo
         </a>
         <span>
          , which helped lead what became a decade-long deal boom for enterprise software companies. Those businesses were loaded up with debt, as investors bet that recurring revenue and sticky customers would make the leverage manageable.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          That worked for years, because of rising valuations, cheap money and a seemingly insatiable appetite for the software-as-a-service business model. Until now. Here’s why:
         </span>
        </p>
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              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Interest rates are higher, and the economy is weakening;
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Software valuations have fallen;
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The window to sell these businesses is largely shut;
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                And investors fear that artificial intelligence tools like Anthropic’s Claude Code will
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                disrupt the sector
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                .
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Private credit lenders have meaningful protections,
         </span>
         <span>
          including seniority in the capital structure and loan covenants. (Of note: Thoma Bravo has reportedly started making moves to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          limit creditor power plays
         </a>
         <span>
          at its investments.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          That said, private equity executives say their portfolios are healthy.
         </span>
         <span>
          Robert Smith, Vista’s founder,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          wrote to investors
         </a>
         <span>
          last month that a vast majority of companies it owns aren’t being battered by A.I.-powered competitors. “We feel this volatility is being driven primarily by sentiment and uncertainty, not fundamental performance,” he wrote.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          And debt investors can have less tolerance for losses than equity counterparts, Gustavo Schwed, a professor of finance at the N.Y.U. Stern School of Business noted. Debt can trade at a discount, while the equity wouldn’t necessarily be impaired right away, he told DealBook.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Note that JPMorgan Chase has reportedly
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          marked down the value
         </a>
         <span>
          of some loans in private credit borrowers’ portfolios, according to The Financial Times.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Those involved have an incentive to stick their heads in the sand.
         </span>
         <span>
          Private equity firms want to avoid panicking their investors. Private credit funds want to avoid taking write-downs. Portfolio companies don’t want to renegotiate their loans.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          And most quietly hope that rates ease and exits reopen, allaying fears before they become a crisis.
         </span>
        </p>
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </span>
           </h3>
          </td>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Washington State lawmakers pass a “millionaires’ tax.”
         </span>
         <span>
          The legislation will impose a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          9.9 percent annual tax
         </a>
         <span>
          on personal earnings above $1 million, which is expected to hit about 20,000 households; Gov. Bob Ferguson, a Democrat, is expected to sign it into law. The bill imposes Washington State’s first income tax, but critics argue it will drive wealthy taxpayers out of the state; Jeff Bezos and
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Howard Schultz
         </a>
         <span>
          are among those who have left.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Anthropic is reportedly discussing a joint venture with private equity giants.
         </span>
         <span>
          The artificial intelligence start-up is negotiating with a group including Blackstone — run by Steve Schwarzman, who’s close to President Trump — and Hellman &amp; Friedman about creating a business to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          sell its Claude software
         </a>
         <span>
          to the firms’ portfolio companies, The Information reports. The talks suggest that big companies are still willing to work with Anthropic despite its fight with the Pentagon.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          President Trump is said to have ordered a renewed defense of law firm punishments.
         </span>
         <span>
          The Justice Department’s move to appeal a court ruling that overturned executive orders that imposed sanctions on four law firms, after initially dropping that plan,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          came at Trump’s behest
         </a>
         <span>
          , according to The Wall Street Journal. Several White House officials reportedly wanted to drop the matter after a string of defeats in court.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Steve Tisch plans to cede his stake in the New York Giants.
         </span>
         <span>
          Tisch will transfer his ownership interest in the N.F.L. team
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          to his children
         </a>
         <span>
          , after more details of his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein emerged. (He’s still expected to be involved in the team’s operations.) Separately, the chair of the House Oversight Committee suggested that more people who made “significant transactions” with Epstein
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          could be called to testify
         </a>
         <span>
          before lawmakers.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          René Redzepi steps down from Noma after accusations of prior abuse.
         </span>
         <span>
          The
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          celebrity chef’s move
         </a>
         <span>
          , along with an apology posted on Instagram, came after The Times reported on accusations about workplace abuse at his restaurant.
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Protesters have demonstrated
         </a>
         <span>
          outside a Noma pop-up restaurant in Los Angeles, where a meal costs $1,500 a head; sponsors including American Express have pulled out of the event.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
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           <td height="10">
           </td>
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            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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            <span style="text-align:center">
             <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="margin:0 auto">
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                <td style="line-height:0;font-size:0">
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                  <img alt="Ad" border="0" class="css-63f6sn" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fliveintent.newyorktimesinfo.com%252Fimp%253Fs%253D269018%2526li%253DDK%2526m%253Ddfbfebeec3e396a6cb1a8b032a80246c%2526p%253DDK_20260312%2526stpe%253Ddefault%2526li_coord%253Ddesktop%2526collapse_width%253D600/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZsaXZlaW50ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3NzMzMTYzODUuOTk0MzE1Nn0:1w0ebB:7sjEqjiqwPx8q6hN-eq2L--NxfRhMMfq3aa0dbnZvpU" style="display:block;width:100%;max-width:600px" width="600"/>
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        </table>
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           <td style="text-align:center">
            <img alt="A large column of fire is seen at night above a vessel caught ablaze." class="css-xsf469" height="745" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2026%252F03%252F12%252Fmultimedia%252F12db-oil-wbch%252F12db-oil-wbch-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NzMzMTYzODUuOTk0NTk0M30:1w0ebB:uBoZ-BmULUIDKxxJqli4UygVHZdrOVuRN4ba4LiA7kw" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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           <td style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-top:6px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:12px">
            <span class="css-1wuwhda" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:left">
             <span class="css-1hnedf7" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
              A vessel burning. Strikes on oil tankers have added to jitters to the global market.
             </span>
             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
              Associated Press
             </span>
            </span>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Oil’s wild ride continues
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Investors are bracing for another gut-wrenching day. Oil prices are climbing, and stocks and bonds are selling off amid what the International Energy Agency called the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          biggest-ever disruption
         </a>
         <span>
          in the oil market.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped above $100 per barrel overnight, before drifting slightly lower. This is despite governments around the world agreeing to release
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          a record 400 million barrels
         </a>
         <span>
          from strategic reserves — though that’s roughly equivalent to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          less than three weeks’ worth of supply
         </a>
         <span>
          that normally transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The wild swings have traders grappling with how high oil will climb.
         </span>
         <span>
          One
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          worst-case projection
         </a>
         <span>
          : $164.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “I think it’s going to be volatile,” Helima Croft, the global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told DealBook’s Brian O’Keefe. “The key question is, when does the market believe that this is a longer-term outage and not a short-duration event?”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The latest:
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Iraq
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                shut down all oil terminal operations
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                after a fatal attack on two tankers off the coast of Iraq. Key export terminals in
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Bahrain
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                and
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Oman
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                also suspended operations
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                amid escalating threats. Several banks, including Citigroup and Standard Chartered,
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                advised staff in Dubai to stay home
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                .
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The attacks on commercial vessels have
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                cut ship traffic by 90 percent
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                through the Strait of Hormuz, the I.E.A. said today. Iran vowed to “
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                never allow even a single liter of oil
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                ” to pass through the waterway.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                With the price of gasoline
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                up 11 straight days
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , the U.S. yesterday said it would release
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                172 million barrels
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                from its strategic reserves. The Energy Department said it would take about four months for the supplies to fully enter the market. (The move came after Chris Wright, the energy secretary, told fellow Group of 7 members that it was premature to intervene, only for President Trump to
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                reverse course
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                .)
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Tapping into the emergency reserves has prompted the market to recalculate how long the war might last. Though it was intended to ease the pressure on prices, the size of the stockpile release signals that the war is a bigger problem than traders might have anticipated. “So it can cut both ways,” Croft said.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Potential U.S. Navy escorts for Hormuz traffic remains a big question.
         </span>
         <span>
          Though Trump has floated the idea, the U.S. has been
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          turning down requests
         </a>
         <span>
          to offer escorts, The Wall Street Journal reports.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “We keep hearing that it’s a complex operation, and right now the naval assets are not there to both conduct the military operations and do an escort service,” Croft told DealBook.
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Fed watch: Goldman Sachs now thinks the central bank will next cut interest rates in
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                September instead of June
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , citing uncertainty about inflation and the war. The futures market this morning sees just one cut this year.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
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           <td style="border-top:0 solid #dcdcdc;padding-top:15px">
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            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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                <td style="line-height:0;font-size:0">
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                <td style="line-height:0;font-size:0">
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                  <img alt="Ad" border="0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fliveintent.newyorktimesinfo.com%252Fimp%253Fs%253D791919%2526li%253DDK%2526m%253Ddfbfebeec3e396a6cb1a8b032a80246c%2526p%253DDK_20260312%2526stpe%253Ddefault%2526li_coord%253Dmobile%2526collapse_width%253D480/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZsaXZlaW50ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3NzMzMTYzODUuOTk1MTE3N30:1w0ebB:oAcsrLrywqw_PTirtUVEGSkKWQN8WBXnQPfCpA2sl0I" style="display:block;width:100%;max-width:480px" width="480"/>
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           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td height="20">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          “A.I. is not very popular in the U.S. right now.”
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          —
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          Sam Altman
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          , the C.E.O. of OpenAI. At a BlackRock conference in Washington he cited rising electricity bills — which critics have blamed on A.I. data centers — and layoffs attributed to businesses’ adoption of A.I. A recent NBC News poll showed that 57 percent of American voters believed that the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          risks of A.I. outweighed its benefits
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Tariff refunds, by the numbers
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The Trump administration is not backing down on tariffs, despite a defeat last month at the Supreme Court. Yesterday, the White House
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          announced an investigation
         </a>
         <span>
          into unfair trading practices by 16 of the largest U.S. trading partners, a potential first step to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          introducing punishing new measures
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The administration faces a different tariff deadline today.
         </span>
         <span>
          Its lawyers are
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          set to update a federal court on its timeline
         </a>
         <span>
          for issuing refunds for its invalidated tariffs, which were justified using a 1977 law known as IEEPA. President Trump has been clear that he opposes returning the money, and the administration is expected to suggest that the process will be so difficult it could take years.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Here’s a by-the-numbers look at the complexity of issuing refunds:
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                More than 53 million:
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The number of entries for goods subject to the tariffs that have since been invalidated, according to the administration.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                Roughly $166 billion:
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                How much the government collected under the emergency duties.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                $650 million per month:
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The interest accruing on that money, according to court filings. By law, it must also be returned to businesses.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                As many as 4,431,161 hours:
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The time it could take to manually process all of the refund requests, according to the administration.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          There may be a shortcut.
         </span>
         <span>
          Brandon Lord, the executive director of the trade programs directorate at U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which processes and refunds the tariffs, said the agency could trim four million hours from the processing time once it completes a computer systems upgrade.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          More than one trade expert told The Times, however, that Lord’s projected timeline — 45 days — was “aspirational.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                In related news, a Costco Wholesale shopper
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                sued the warehouse club
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                yesterday, claiming that it owes customers refunds related to the invalidated tariffs. The lawsuit is seeking class-action status on behalf of all U.S. Costco customers.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             THE SPEED READ
            </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Deals
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Tilman Fertitta, the casino and hospitality magnate, is said to be in talks to buy Caesars Entertainment
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                for roughly $7 billion
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , beating out Carl Icahn. (WSJ)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Cursor, the A.I. coding start-up, is reportedly aiming to nearly double its valuation to
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                roughly $50 billion
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , as fund-raising talks continue. (Bloomberg)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Revolut, the big European fintech company, secured a
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                full British banking license
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                after a yearslong application process. (FT)
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
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          Politics, policy and regulation
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                In layoff news: Oracle
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                set aside $500 million
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                for restructuring costs, bringing the total reserves to $2.1 billion for the fiscal year, as the tech giant is expected to cut jobs, while Atlassian cited A.I. in announcing that it was laying off
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                10 percent of its staff
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                . (FT)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Senate Democrats are reportedly drafting legislation to set
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                legal guardrails on the use of A.I.
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                for mass domestic surveillance and fully autonomous weapons, issues at the heart of Anthropic’s fight with the Pentagon. (Axios)
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Best of the rest
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              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                “A.I. Isn’t Lightening Workloads. It’s
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Making Them More Intense
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                .” (WSJ)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Thanks to Bad Bunny, Brazilian funk and K-pop, English
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                is losing its stranglehold
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                on pop music, according to Spotify. (BBC)
               </span>
              </li>
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