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   DealBook: Private goes public
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             July 19, 2025
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          Good morning. Andrew here. The question we’re exploring this morning is whether the future of investing lies predominantly in private markets rather than public ones. DealBook contributor Ian Frisch delves into this topic, as financial firms work to expand access to private companies and the Trump administration is said to be considering allowing 401(k) investments in private markets. This could certainly be a boon, but it also presents significant challenges.
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          Also in this edition: Adam Rogers, a longtime tech journalist, talks with one of the authors of a new study with a novel theory explaining why big tech companies are avoiding acquisitions.
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          (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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             Robinhood is trying to make it easier for more people to invest in private companies.
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             Brendan McDermid/Reuters
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          The next frontier
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              By Ian Frisch
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          There’s a new darling on Wall Street: private markets.
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          Because that’s where the party is now. Companies are staying private for longer — the number of publicly traded companies has dropped by nearly half over the past three decades, with nearly 1,500 start-ups worldwide currently boasting a valuation of $1 billion or more — and, according to the global consultancy Bain &amp; Company,
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          private market assets have more than tripled since 2013
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          . The firm expects them to grow twice as fast as public assets in the future, reaching $62 trillion globally by 2034.
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          Historically, private equity investments were accessible only to wealthy and experienced investors. But in recent years, interest has soared among the retail class.
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          “This is just the beginning,” said the senior vice president of Robinhood Crypto, Johann Kerbrat, who is leading Robinhood’s efforts to make private equity tradable on its platform.
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Washington appears to be on board.
         </span>
         <span>
          Investments in private companies have typically been reserved for “accredited investors” — people that earn more than $200,000 a year or have a net worth of at least $1 million. The requirement is meant to protect everyday investors from high-risk investments “There’s not a lot of clarity, you can’t get your money out, and you might lose all your money,” said Jonathan Foster, the C.E.O. at Angeles Wealth Management.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Atkins indicated in May he planned to expand private markets access for retail investors. “Financial innovation sometimes means getting out of the way of capital formation,” he said.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The White House is reportedly finalizing an executive order allowing 401(k) retirement savings plans to invest in private equity, according to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          The Wall Street Journal
         </a>
         <span>
          . That would ease the legal concerns that have kept private equity out of the U.S. defined contribution market, which has grown from $9.6 trillion in 2022 to $12.4 trillion in 2024.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          New firms specialize in a secondary market for private shares.
         </span>
         <span>
          Trading platforms such as Forge Global, Destiny, Augment, Hiive, and EquityZen act as middlemen between early employees of private companies looking to sell their shares and public investors hoping to put their money in the private entity. Forge, for example, currently offers investment opportunities in roughly 200 hot-shot private companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Figma and Stripe — with nearly 2,000 companies on the firm’s radar.
         </span>
        </p>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          While these platforms require investors to be accredited, they have made it easier to find private shares (sometimes
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          without permission
         </a>
         <span>
          from the companies that issued them).
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          In March, Forge lowered its minimum investment threshold to just $5,000. “We believe in broadening access to all investors,” said the company’s chief strategy officer, Howe Ng, adding that Forge’s total trading volume for the first quarter of 2025 increased by 132 percent over the prior quarter, topping out at $692.4 million.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Tokens could open access for even unaccredited investors.
         </span>
         <span>
          Last month, Robinhood announced a rollout in Europe of tokenized equities, which are blockchain-based derivatives of public and private assets that can be traded like stocks or cryptocurrency. As part of the launch, the retail trading platform gave away tokens of OpenAI and SpaceX, which aren’t yet tradable but, according to the company, hold as much value as an equity stake. (OpenAI said in a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          social media post
         </a>
         <span>
          that the tokens are not equity in the company.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Robinhood plans to tokenize thousands of private companies and other private assets in the future. “The beauty of this technology is that we can adapt it to any financial instruments,” Kerbrat said.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          He called private markets “the next frontier to democratizing investing.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Don’t forget E.T.F.s, mutual funds, and 401(k)s.
         </span>
         <span>
          Traditional investment vehicles have also latched on to the trend of private market access. Exchange-traded funds such as $XOVR and $ARKVX hold shares in private equity funds that have exposure to popular private technology companies, and Forge recently applied for S.E.C. approval of an interval fund that will track 60 privately held, late-stage venture-backed U.S. companies, including Chime, Circle, Kraken and SpaceX.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The world’s largest fund managers are creating products aimed at selling private market exposure to mom-and-pop investors saving for retirement. Blackrock Inc. recently introduced a target-date fund that includes private equity and credit, and has invested roughly $30 billion on acquisitions to further expand into private markets. Empower, which manages $1.8 trillion, will likewise offer private assets in retirement plans in the near future.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          On Friday, JPMorgan Chase began expanding its research offerings to include private companies
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Where does it go from here?
         </span>
         <span>
          It depends on whom you ask. Angeles Wealth Management’s Foster fears that broadening access to private markets opens the door for highly speculative derivative securities that play into retail investors’ worst impulses. “Wall Street will keep creating more and more products to create more and more implicit leverage to feed that gambling instinct,” he said.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The S.E.C. understands this. Despite the chairman’s support for innovation in this space, the agency recently posted a reminder that the rules still apply, especially for synthetic versions of private equity. “As powerful as blockchain technology is, it does not have magical abilities to transform the nature of the underlying asset,” wrote Hester Peirce, a Republican commissioner. “Tokenized securities are still securities.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Still, because the underlying asset is a private company, financial transparency could fall short compared to public stocks, leaving the retail investor to close the knowledge gap. “I think the customer can make a lot of the decisions by themselves,” Robinhood’s Kerbrat said.
         </span>
        </p>
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
            </span>
           </h3>
          </td>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Crypto is surging after the industry reached a Washington milestone.
         </span>
         <span>
          Following a monthslong effort that was nearly derailed by
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          ultraconservative House Republicans
         </a>
         <span>
          , President Trump signed the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          first major crypto law
         </a>
         <span>
          yesterday. A separate bill that would establish cryptocurrency market regulations has cleared the House, but whether it will survive in the Senate remains unclear.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The Trump administration continues its attacks on the Fed chair.
         </span>
         <span>
          Markets briefly dipped this week and major bank C.E.O.s made statements
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          defending Federal Reserve independence
         </a>
         <span>
          after
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          The Times reported
         </a>
         <span>
          that Trump brandished to House Republicans a draft letter firing the Fed chair. While the central bank is expected to hold rates steady at its next meeting, the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          path forward is less certain
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Chevron completes its purchase of Hess.
         </span>
         <span>
          To close the $53 billion deal, the company
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          won a legal dispute with Exxon
         </a>
         <span>
          , which claimed it had the right to bid for a stake in a valuable Guyana oil project held by Hess. Mike Wirth, the company’s chief executive,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          told Bloomberg
         </a>
         <span>
          the ruling will pave the way for more oil deals.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Democratic lawmakers question timing of “The Late Show” cancellation.
         </span>
         <span>
          The announcement that CBS would end Stephen Colbert’s late night talk show came days after the host criticized the network’s parent company, Paramount, for
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          paying President Trump $16 million to settle a lawsuit
         </a>
         <span>
          . The show was
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          racking up losses of tens of millions of dollars a year
         </a>
         <span>
          , according to two people familiar with the show’s finances, and CBS said its cancellation was “purely a financial decision against a challenging backdrop in late night.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Where has all the M&amp;A gone?
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          In the mythology of Silicon Valley, the initial public offering is the gold-standard exit for a start-up. But the number of I.P.O.s has dwindled over the last 25 years, replaced almost completely by acquisitions.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          And now, even that exit has exited. In the last five years, the number of acquisitions has gone off a cliff.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
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           <td style="text-align:center">
            <img alt="" class="css-xsf469" height="549" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F07%252F19%252Fbusiness%252F19DB-chart-2%252F19DB-chart-2-jumbo.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NTI5MjY0OTEuOTAxNzM4NH0:1ud6Fv:rmPtbWWYz_vO1DZUa_Ac7Tmir3lR-1-JPWbFXXxLfwQ" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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           <td style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-top:3px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:12px">
            <span class="css-1wuwhda" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:right">
             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:0">
              The New York Times
             </span>
            </span>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Why the drop-off? In a new paper titled “
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          No Exit
         </a>
         <span>
          ,” a Vanderbilt law professor, Brian Broughman, and Cardozo law professors Matthew Wansley and Samuel Weinstein argue that the answer is fear of antitrust scrutiny — and the proof is in stealthy new deal-making, so-called reverse acquihires like Google’s recent
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          hollowing-out of the A.I. company Windsurf
         </a>
         <span>
          , and Big Tech’s A.I. sugar-daddy relationships with companies like OpenAI. Wansley talked to Adam Rogers about the deals that ate M&amp;A.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The dot-com bust and regulatory changes ended the era of the I.P.O. So what happened to acquisitions?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          In the 2000s and the 2010s, while I.P.O.s were in decline, acquisitions were on the rise — tracking the amount of money going into venture capital. The last few years, that starts to drop off, too. Our argument is that it’s out of fear that they’d get scrutiny from the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          In the years before 2020, there were, like, three start-up acquisitions that got scrutinized and challenged by the D.O.J. and F.T.C. After that, it’s 14.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          How do you know Big Tech got scared? That could be a statistical blip.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The compelling evidence is deal structures that we haven’t seen before. To me, the reverse acquihire is the smoking gun, because there is no reason to do a reverse acquihire unless you’re trying to evade antitrust enforcement.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Acquihires are common enough. What makes it an antitrust dodge?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          We think reverse acquihires are something new. A Big Tech company wants to acquire a start-up, but it’s worried that the D.O.J. or F.T.C. is going to challenge the deal. So instead, they get the founders and the core engineering team to leave the start-up and come work for them. But the V.C.s are not going to be happy about that, because they don’t want to see their investment walk out the door. So the Big Tech company says, OK, we’re going to pay the start-up to license their intellectual property.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          That seems fine. People change jobs. IP gets licensed.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          You have to understand, the license is fake. I mean, it’s real in the sense that it’s legally enforceable, but it is fake in the sense that they’re making the payment because they want to pay off the venture capitalists.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          But the license fee doesn’t go to the V.C.s, does it?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The clearest evidence that this is what’s going on is that right after the license deal goes through, the start-up, or the shell of the start-up that’s left, pays a dividend to its shareholders. Dividends are common in big public corporations, but they are vanishingly rare in start-ups. The dividends are proof that what big tech is trying to do is pay off the V.C.s. It’s an acquisition in substance, but not form.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          OK. Then what’s up with, say, Microsoft and OpenAI? That’s not a reverse acquihire.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          That’s a more complex phenomenon. It used to be that corporate venture capital would be one of many investors in a company, including traditional V.C.s. What happened with OpenAI and Anthropic is different. The checks that Microsoft has written to OpenAI and that Google and Amazon are writing to Anthropic are in the billions. We call that a “centaur,” half public and half private. Public corporations are dominating the capital structure of a private company. So, if you’re OpenAI or Anthropic, you are much more beholden to these large public companies.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          It is hard to think of an A.I. company that is truly independent from all of the incumbent big tech players.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          And we’ll know you’re right about antitrust fears if the acquisitions start again under the new, more merger-friendly F.T.C. and D.O.J., right?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The Trump administration has been sending mixed signals on antitrust. There is some evidence that players in the market think that antitrust scrutiny is going to relax. Google is
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          trying to do the Wiz deal again
         </a>
         <span>
          , right? But the persistence of the reverse acquihire structure suggests that they are still worried.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          As much as I would love it if the real world would cleanly test our thesis, I don’t think the Trump administration is going to give us that opportunity.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
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