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   DealBook: Swiss mess
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             October 3, 2022
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                  Signs of trouble.
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                  Arnd Wiegmann/Reuters
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             Credit Suisse’s rocky ride continues
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             Shares in Credit Suisse tumbled over 8 percent this morning, after the Swiss bank spent the weekend battling rumors about its financial weaknesses, despite
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              assurances from its C.E.O.
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             on Friday. Rumors among traders that the firm’s liquidity was in trouble sent its
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              credit default swaps
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             — securities that essentially gauge market perceptions of a company’s financial health — surging to a record, indicating deep concern.
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              Credit Suisse gave executives talking points to reassure wealth management clients.
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             The memo, which was sent over the weekend and was reviewed by DealBook, told executives to acknowledge the bank’s stock drop, but to add that the bank had $100 billion to cover losses, and that it had nearly $238 billion in high-quality liquid assets at the end of its second quarter. “Speculating that we have a liquidity issue simply would be completely false,” read one of the talking points.
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              But Credit Suisse has given investors reasons to worry over the years.
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             It’s principally a question of risk management: The firm took hits from the collapses of the investment firm Archegos, which cost it $5.5 billion, and of the lender Greensill, which led to another $1.7 billion in losses. Both scandals led to questions about Credit Suisse’s risk management, whose weaknesses were confirmed by an
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              internal report
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             .
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             Investors have other concerns, including lending to lower-rated corporate borrowers and weakness in core business areas like equity and debt capital markets and SPACs. More fundamentally, shareholders have worried that Credit Suisse is fundamentally incapable of competing against bigger Wall Street giants; the Swiss bank is reportedly weighing turnaround plans that would involve layoffs and potentially splitting its investment bank in three.
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              Not everyone is worried — yet.
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             Boaz Weinstein of the hedge fund Saba Capital
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              tweeted
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             yesterday that the speculation around Credit Suisse felt like “a concerted effort at scaremongering.”
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             But while Credit Suisse has set Oct. 27 as the date to formally unveil its turnaround plan — and reiterated that schedule to DealBook today — that may feel like a long time away. In the meantime, the firm risks damage like spooked wealth-management clients seeking to transfer their money elsewhere.
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             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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              Britain’s government backtracks on an unpopular tax cut.
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             Prime Minister Liz Truss
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              abandoned plans
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             to abolish the nation’s top tax rate of 45 percent on high earners. The announcement lifted the pound, but the fate of other parts of Truss’s market-shaking agenda remains unclear.
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              Brazil’s presidential election heads to a runoff.
             </span>
             The right-wing president, Jair Bolsonaro,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              outperformed expectations
             </a>
             , pitting him against a leftist predecessor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. A Bolsonaro victory could lead to further deregulation in Latin America’s largest democracy.
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              A Chinese tech billionaire avoids a sexual-assault trial.
             </span>
             Richard Liu, the founder of the retailer JD.com,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              settled a lawsuit
             </a>
             filed by a former University of Minnesota student accusing him of raping her in 2018. The trial, seen as a test of the #MeToo movement in China, had been set to begin today.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Tesla’s quarterly sales set a record.
             </span>
             The electric carmaker said it
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              sold 343,830 vehicles
             </a>
             worldwide in the third quarter, despite production and shipping challenges. But those sales
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              missed expectations
             </a>
             , suggesting Tesla’s financial results for the quarter could fall short as well. Tesla shares fell more than 4 percent in premarket trading.
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              A British official blames social media for a teenager’s suicide.
             </span>
             The coroner overseeing the case of Molly Rose Russell, a 14-year-old who died in 2017, said platforms like Instagram had
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              contributed to her death
             </a>
             . It was perhaps the first instance of internet companies being legally blamed for suicide.
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             No end in sight to the bear market sell-off
            </h2>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Stocks are set to open the fourth quarter this morning where they left off on Friday: in the red. Once again, investors are selling risky assets, including European stocks. S&amp;P 500 futures, too, indicate another rough trading day.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The prospect of higher interest rates and slowing global growth continue to rock investor confidence. The S&amp;P 500 on Friday closed out the third quarter down 5.3 percent, a third consecutive losing quarter. The benchmark index is nearly 25 percent lower year-to-date.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Here are some of the biggest losers (and one winner) from the most recent quarter:
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Investors haven’t seen a stock sell-off this brutal since the global financial crisis. According to Charlie Bilello, founder of Compound Capital Advisors, stocks have
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              entered their longest losing streak
             </a>
             since the bear market of 2007 to 2009.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Government bonds, corporate debt and commodities are slumping too, leading to predictions that a broad downturn could continue through the fourth quarter. Last week, Michael Hartnett, Bank of America’s chief investment strategist, told clients that “we are tactical bears,” and that markets will not rebound until central banks begin to shift away from their current policies of aggressive rate increases. Hartnett and his team now forecast that the S&amp;P could fall to 3,333, roughly 7 percent below Friday’s close.
            </p>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Florida needs Washington
            </h2>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Hurricane Ian is expected
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              to cost billions
             </a>
             , and rebuilding
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              could take years
             </a>
             . Facing such devastation, Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, has traded his anti-left rhetoric for
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a more diplomatic tone
             </a>
             as he seeks President Biden’s help. The shift has prompted
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              accusations of hypocrisy
             </a>
             . When Hurricane Sandy hit the Northeast in 2012, DeSantis, then a congressman, voted against aid,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              calling the assistance fiscally irresponsible
             </a>
             .
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The governor says post-Ian aid is justified. That puts the state in a familiar position of seeking federal handouts.
            </p>
           </td>
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        </table>
       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Natural disasters are common to Florida
             </span>
             .
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              According to FEMA
             </a>
             data, Florida has declared more disasters since 1953 than all but four other states. Here’s where it ranks:
            </p>
           </td>
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        </table>
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           <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
            <ul class="css-27qc8p" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Texas: 371 total, 258 fires
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               California: 360 total, 278 fires
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Oklahoma: 219 total, 106 fires
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Washington: 192 total, 128 fires
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Florida: 171 total, 67 fires, 52 hurricanes
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The state has been a top recipient of FEMA funds in recent years.
             </span>
             Of the
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
             </span>
             $45 billion in non-COVID disaster relief distributed by FEMA between 2017 and 2020, Florida took in the second-largest haul, according to
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              an analysis by Lending Tree
             </a>
             . The top five recipient states were:
            </p>
           </td>
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        </table>
       </div>
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            <ul class="css-27qc8p" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Texas: $7.7 billion
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Florida: $6.3 billion
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               California: $4 billion
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               North Carolina: $1.3 billion
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Georgia: $600 million
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Biden goes to Florida on Wednesday.
             </span>
             The president last visited the state when the Surfside condo collapsed last year, and he pledged assistance then, too. The president and governor have spoken several times recently, and Biden “
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              was inviting
             </a>
             ” requests for support, according to DeSantis. This weekend, after
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              traveling with FEMA
             </a>
             ’s administrator, Deanne Criswell, the governor called her “very supportive” and said state and federal officials were working well together.
            </p>
           </td>
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           <td align="left">
            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             “On things that matter most, get ready for a lot of 6-3s.”
            </h2>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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           <td align="left">
            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              —
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               Irv Gornstein
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              , the executive director of the Supreme Court Institute at Georgetown Law, on what to expect as the Supreme Court’s new term begins today.
             </span>
            </p>
           </td>
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           <td align="left">
            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Saudi Arabia could deal Biden a blow
            </h2>
           </td>
          </tr>
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        </table>
       </div>
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           <td align="left">
            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             OPEC Plus, the oil producers’ group, may
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              announce a large production cut
             </a>
             when it meets on Wednesday. Such a move would clearly be aimed at shoring up declining global crude prices. But it would also signal a rebuke of President Biden by Saudi Arabia, OPEC Plus’s de facto leader.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Producers may cut output by 500,000 to one million barrels a day,
             </span>
             or roughly 1 percent of global supply, according to analyst estimates. Such a significant move would be meant to signal dissatisfaction with global oil market dynamics.
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              Whether the cartel can follow through is unclear.
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             The group has been falling short of its own production targets for months now. Russia, a member of OPEC Plus, will face more punishing sanctions on output later this year.
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             which has called on OPEC Plus to keep oil flowing to contain crude prices. Biden went so far as to visit Saudi Arabia in July, despite his criticism of the kingdom’s role in the 2018 murder of the dissident Jamal Khashoggi. The plan also shows the Saudis’ apparent interest in keeping Russia on board, despite efforts by the West to punish Moscow for the war in Ukraine.
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             from crucial aviation parts and restrict sales by Raytheon and Boeing. Khanna wrote, “We are not helpless. The Saudis depend on us.”
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                Disney added Carolyn Everson
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               , a former senior executive at Meta, to its board as part of a settlement with the activist investor Dan Loeb. (Bloomberg)
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               The C.E.O. of the SPAC seeking to take Donald Trump’s social media company public
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                urged the former president
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               to promote a vote that would delay the deal. (CNBC)
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               Improbable, a metaverse start-up backed by SoftBank, is near a deal to
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                raise £100 million ($112 million)
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               in new capital after losing £152 million last year. (FT)
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               Kim Kardashian paid $1.26 million to settle charges by the S.E.C. that she had
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                unlawfully promoted a crypto security
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               . (S.E.C.)
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                put courts in charge
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               of shaping the U.S. cannabis industry. (Politico)
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                hurt global financial stability
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               , according to the former Obama Treasury official Sarah Bloom Raskin. (FT)
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               “For a Woman on Wall Street,
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                Crude Jokes
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               Weren’t the Worst of It” (NYT)
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                Dan Wieden
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               , the ad-industry legend who helped create Nike’s “Just Do It” campaign, died on Saturday. He was 77. (Insider)
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               Visual artists say they’re increasingly
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                abandoning Instagram
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               as the platform puts more emphasis on video. (NYT)
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                Swiss chocolatier prevailed
               </a>
               over the German discounter. (NYT)
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