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   DealBook: The Bernanke Nobel debate
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             October 11, 2022
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                  The Bernanke years, revisited.
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             Debating Bernanke’s legacy
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             Of the three people who won the
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              Nobel prize for economics
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             yesterday, the one who stood out was the former Fed chair Ben Bernanke. Unlike the vast majority of laureates, Bernanke was able to actually apply his research — on banks and financial crises — to a real-world scenario: the 2008 market meltdown.
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             Bernanke’s work as head of the Fed was given only a glancing reference in the prize citation, but the award resurrected the debate over his handling of the financial crisis.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Supporters say Bernanke helped prevent a meltdown.
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             In quickly setting up hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of bailout programs for banks and unleashing a wave of economic stimulus, Bernanke helped prevent the Great Recession from becoming a Great Depression, his backers say. His work also pioneered a whole set of tools for central banks to boost their economies, including quantitative easing.
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               “Mr. Bernanke’s contribution to economics can only be understood as a function of both his research and his leadership of the Fed,” wrote
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                Greg Ip of The Wall Street Journal
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               , “combining intellectual heft with small-p political acumen.”
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               “There is no doubt that his understanding of the precise nature of the crisis saved the global financial system in 2008,” wrote
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                Stuart Trow of Bloomberg Opinion
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               .
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               “I’ve been arguing since 2008 that the Fed did it right,” Andrew said on CNBC yesterday.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              But others say Bernanke still has a lot to answer for.
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             Even his supporters acknowledge that, as a Fed governor from 2002 to 2005, Bernanke missed the warning signs of the subprime housing crisis. Critics draw a direct line from his actions in 2008 to soaring inflation and economic woes today.
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               “Suppressing interest rates to historic lows and flooding the economy with bank reserves via quantitative easing distorted markets for every form of credit in ways economists still don’t understand — and then the Fed did the same only more so when the pandemic hit in 2020,” wrote
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                The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board
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               “This is a bankruptcy moment for central banking and the economics Nobel,” tweeted
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                Sridhar Vembu
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               , the billionaire C.E.O. of the software company Zoho.
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               Bloomberg Opinion’s
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                John Authers
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               offered a more measured take: “It’s strangely provocative for the Nobel committee to decide to make him the award at this juncture.”
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             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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              The Fed’s vice chair commits to fighting inflation.
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             Lael Brainard said yesterday that the central bank was taking note of rising global economic risks — but was focused on
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              raising interest rates
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             to tame rising prices. Meanwhile, Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase warned that the U.S. could
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              enter a recession
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             by the middle of next year.
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              The Bank of England expands its purchases of British government bonds.
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             The central bank will now buy
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              inflation-linked bonds
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             for the first time, hoping to avert “fire sales” by pension funds. It also warned that dysfunction in the government bond market posed “a material risk to U.K. financial stability.”
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              A union rejects President Biden’s rail compromise.
             </span>
             The Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees Division of the Teamsters, which has 12,000 members,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              failed to ratify
             </a>
             the labor deal brokered by the White House last month. If more unions follow suit, the U.S. could suffer a debilitating rail strike.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The nasal version of AstraZeneca’s Covid vaccine fails in a clinical trial.
             </span>
             The formulation generated antibody responses in
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              only a minority of trial participants
             </a>
             . The results dampen hopes for a nasal vaccine, which would be easier to administer than injections.
            </p>
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             Continue reading the main story
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              A prominent billionaire investor renounces his Russian citizenship.
             </span>
             Yuri Milner, whose firm DST backed the likes of Facebook and Snapchat, said he had
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              given up his ties to Russia
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             in August. Milner has long stressed that he has had Israeli citizenship since 1999 and made nearly all his wealth outside of Russia.
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Welcome to the meh-taverse
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Meta holds its annual developers’ conference today, almost a year after Mark Zuckerberg pivoted what had been Facebook into “a metaverse company,” committing billions to creating a virtual world where we can work, play and socialize.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Zuckerberg hailed the metaverse as the next “generation of the internet.” Wall Street too is bullish, with Goldman Sachs last year
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              calling it
             </a>
             an “$8 trillion market opportunity.” Shareholders so far aren’t buying it, sending the stock plummeting nearly 60 percent since the big shift.
            </p>
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                <img class="css-17i7zb3" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2022%252F10%252F11%252Fbusiness%252F11DB-FB2021%252F11DB-FB2021-articleLarge.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1oiE40:o7G5WL2DmNM65u0LcY0LSjikTpk5j5UFGUEez2rhkEM" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;height:auto;padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0"/>
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                 </span>
                 <span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:0;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  The New York Times
                 </span>
                </span>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Zuckerberg warned that it could take years for mainstream consumers to buy into the metaverse. The challenge: Even teens are on the fence, according to Piper Sandler’s
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              biannual survey
             </a>
             on the consumption habits of thousands of American teenagers. They found:
            </p>
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             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               26 percent of teens surveyed own a V.R. device, but just 5 percent use it daily.
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               48 percent are either unsure or “uninterested” in the metaverse.
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Meta’s real-world losses are ballooning.
             </span>
             Reality Labs, the Meta division tasked with turning the metaverse into a big business, is still operating in the red. It’s racked up $5.7 billion in losses so far this year and over $10 billion last year, according to company disclosures. The division has implemented a
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              hiring freeze
             </a>
             after reportedly looking to cut expenses by at least 10 percent in the next few months.
            </p>
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                <img class="css-17i7zb3" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2022%252F10%252F11%252Fbusiness%252F11DB-billionsdollars%252F11DB-billionsdollars-articleLarge.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1oiE40:o7G5WL2DmNM65u0LcY0LSjikTpk5j5UFGUEez2rhkEM" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;height:auto;padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0"/>
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                 </span>
                 <span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:0;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  The New York Times
                 </span>
                </span>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Even Meta staffers acknowledge the rough start.
             </span>
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              More than a dozen
             </a>
             current and former Meta employees told the Times’s Ryan Mac, Sheera Frankel and Kevin Roose that the early stumbles were becoming a big distraction. Vishal Shah, the executive in charge of the metaverse division, wrote on an internal message board that he was disappointed in how few workers were using Horizon Workrooms, the company’s virtual meeting app.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             “Why don’t we love the product we’ve built so much that we use it all the time?” he asked. “The simple truth is, if we don’t love it, how can we expect our users to love it?”
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Meta has more fundamental problems.
             </span>
             Facebook reported its first
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              year-on-year quarterly revenue decline
             </a>
             in July, as the company faces a slumping advertising market and the ascendance of the video app TikTok, which is more popular with young internet users.
            </p>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Musk’s take on content moderation
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Even as arbitrage traders are putting good-but-not-great
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              60 percent odds
             </a>
             on Elon Musk closing his $44 billion Twitter acquisition by month’s end, he seems to be thinking ahead about how he’ll run the platform. Musk weighed in yesterday on
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              the Twitter suspension
             </a>
             of Ye, the musician formerly known as Kanye West, for his antisemitic rant over the weekend. The intervention may have soothed Ye, but it’s generating plenty of questions and concerns elsewhere.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Musk, the counselor-in-chief.
             </span>
             “Talked to ye today &amp; expressed my concerns
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
             </span>
             about
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
             </span>
             his recent tweet, which I think he took to heart,” Musk
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              tweeted yesterday.
             </a>
             He had welcomed Ye back to Twitter on Saturday before his antisemitic comment, and had stayed silent on the matter until yesterday.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Musk is no fan of Twitter suspensions.
             </span>
             “I am against censorship that goes far beyond the law,” he
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              tweeted
             </a>
             in April. “If people want less free speech, they will ask the government to pass laws to that effect.” Using that bar, Musk would likely let Ye’s tweet stand,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              experts told The Washington Post
             </a>
             , since it would fall under First Amendment protections. Meanwhile, states
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              like Texas
             </a>
             are pushing to allow individuals to sue when a platform takes down their content.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Musk’s less-is-more approach to content moderation has its limits.
             </span>
             Even everyday Twitter users wondered how Musk will pull it off.
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              “
             </span>
             Musk’s plan to not enforce any Community Rules but instead try to personally talk each user out of doing bad things seems not scalable,” one
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              joked
             </a>
             . Indeed, creating a content policy that can handle a vast range of potential problems has been a core challenge for Twitter. “It’s an enormously complicated challenge for any company to do content moderation at scale,” Vijaya Gadde, Twitter’s top lawyer and safety expert,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              said in 2019 on Joe Rogan’s podcast.
             </a>
             “It’s not easy.”
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Let’s see what Musk thinks — in as soon as three weeks.
            </p>
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             Lifting the curtain on political donations
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             In the wake of the 2020 presidential election and riot at the Capitol, corporate giants have looked more closely at their political contributions and become more transparent about where the money goes. Companies have increasingly faced intense scrutiny for donating to politicians and groups that don’t align with their own stated values.
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             “As we head into a very consequential election, we find companies are much more sensitive to their spending and taking steps to manage the risks,” Bruce Freed, president of the Center for Political Accountability, told DealBook.
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             Every year, the C.P.A. and the Zicklin Center for Business Ethics Research at Wharton
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              score S&amp;P 500 companies
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             on their accountability and transparency around contributions and build an index out of the results. This year there is an uptick in companies’ scrutiny of their own political giving.
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              Companies are drawing more lines and increasing disclosure.
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               Sixty percent of S&amp;P 500 companies, or 300 firms, either fully or partially disclosed political spending this year.
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               Thirty-one percent, or 156 companies, said they wouldn’t make direct contributions to state and local candidates, as well as political parties and committees — a record since the index started.
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               In total, more than three-quarters, or 385 companies, took some action to control or provide more transparency on political giving, also an index record.
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               AT&amp;T, HP and Visa were in the small group ranked at the top in terms of disclosure and accountability on contributions. Tesla, DISH Network and Domino’s Pizza were at the bottom.
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             Despite improvements, increased transparency is needed, Allison Herren Lee, a former S.E.C. commissioner, writes in a foreword to the report: “The political spending decisions currently being made inside U.S. corporations implicate nothing short of the survival of democracy in the United States.”
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               , a fellow medical-diagnostics company, for more than $10 billion. (WSJ)
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                deal to buy Denbury
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               , which owns carbon dioxide pipelines useful for carbon-capture services. (Bloomberg)
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                Jennifer Siebel Newsom
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               , the wife of Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, will testify at Harvey Weinstein’s trial in Los Angeles. (NYT)
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                a 28 percent tax
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               on gains on crypto holdings held for less than a year. (Bloomberg)
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                President Xi Jinping is reshaping China
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               as he prepares to claim an unprecedented third term. (NYT)
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