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   DealBook: The circular economy
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   Also, signs of a shutdown détente?
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             October 7, 2025
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          Good morning. Andrew here. Breaking: The parent company of the N.Y.S.E. just agreed to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, the big prediction market operator. We have details on that deal and much more below. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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          )
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             Dado Ruvic/Reuters
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          A vendor financing flashback?
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         <span>
          S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq futures have dipped into the red this morning — but AMD appears to be riding high again, thanks to its huge new deal with OpenAI.
         </span>
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          It was the latest move by OpenAI to deploy by some counts
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          more than $1 trillion
         </a>
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          into the artificial intelligence ecosystem, an expansive investment spree that has fueled bullishness about the industry. Such spending has lifted the stock market again and again, but concerns are growing in some sectors about the durability of the A.I. boom.
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          Putting OpenAI’s spending in context:
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                Deals with AMD, Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave and others promise to give the ChatGPT maker more than
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                20 gigawatts
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                of computing power over the next decade, roughly equivalent to that of 20 nuclear reactors, The Financial Times calculates.
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The electricity needed to support that compute could cost about
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                $1 trillion
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , The FT adds.
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                OpenAI is valued at about $500 billion, generated about
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                $4.3 billion in sales
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                in the first half of the year, and
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                burned $2.5 billion
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                during that same time,
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The Information reported
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                last month.
               </span>
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          Skeptics are also worrying about the circular nature of some deals.
         </span>
         <span>
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          We’ve pointed out
         </a>
         <span>
          the vendor financing-ish quality of the up-to-$100-billion Nvidia deal, in which the chipmaker pledged to invest in OpenAI — money that would then go toward buying more of its processors.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The AMD deal announced yesterday also has a circular element to it. In exchange for agreeing to buy AMD chips for its data centers, OpenAI will receive a warrant in that chipmaker that amounts to a 10 percent stake. As the value of AMD stock grows, OpenAI could use its gains to … well, buy more AMD processors.
         </span>
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         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Some analysts and investors note that vendor financing was prevalent during the dot-com boom,
         </span>
         <span>
          obscuring the true nature of demand for the industry’s offerings — something that they worry could also overstate the robustness of the A.I. ecosystem.
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          Jim Chanos
         </a>
         <span>
          , the prominent short seller, wrote on social media of the AMD deal, “Don’t you think it’s a bit odd that when the narrative is ‘demand for compute is infinite,’ the sellers keep subsidizing the buyers?”
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          (Others are feeling more sanguine: “We don’t think this risk is present today, and we’re skeptical this will occur in the long term, since A.I. demand is both real and booming, but it bears watching,” wrote
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Brian Colello
         </a>
         <span>
          , a senior equity analyst for Morningstar.)
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          But how long can this last?
         </span>
         <span>
          The answer depends in large part on whether OpenAI can afford its spending spree. The start-up’s president, Greg Brockman, told Bloomberg Television that it was working on the issue. “We look at equity and debt and all kinds of ways to pay for it,” he said.
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          Critics say that the company is playing with fire. “OpenAI is in no position to make any of these commitments,” Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. Davidson, told The FT.
         </span>
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           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td height="20">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          If it fails, that could have dire consequences for the increasingly broad and yet also tightly interconnected ecosystem the company is building.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
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           </td>
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          <td style="padding:0;font-size:0;border-top:8px solid #000">
           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </span>
           </h3>
          </td>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The N.Y.S.E.’s owner takes a big stake in Polymarket.
         </span>
         <span>
          The Intercontinental Exchange agreed to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          invest up to $2 billion in the prediction market
         </a>
         <span>
          at an $8 billion valuation. The deal comes amid growing financial interest in online betting markets after they shot up in popularity following last year’s U.S. presidential election; Polymarket has also sought to start doing business in the U.S., and partnering with the Big Board’s parent company may aid in that effort.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Elon Musk names a new C.F.O. for xAI.
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Anthony Armstrong
         </a>
         <span>
          , a former head of global technology M.&amp;A. at Morgan Stanley who advised Musk on his takeover of Twitter, will become the artificial intelligence start-up’s financial chief, according to The Financial Times. In his new role, Armstrong will be tasked with helping xAI gather the resources to compete with bigger rivals like OpenAI, as well as with assisting with the rebuilding of its X social media division’s ad business.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The White House takes a stake in a Canadian mining firm.
         </span>
         <span>
          Shares in Trilogy Metals are up nearly 200 percent in premarket trading today, after the Trump administration said it would take a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          10 percent stake in the miner
         </a>
         <span>
          . The move is part of U.S. efforts to secure supplies of critical minerals, though the strategy chief of the mining giant BHP warned that
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          “nationalistic tendencies”
         </a>
         <span>
          were complicating deal-making in the industry.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td height="10">
           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-top:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr aria-hidden="true">
           <td>
            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
             <img alt="Ad" border="0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fliveintent.newyorktimesinfo.com%252Fimp%253Fs%253D1053700%2526li%253DDK%2526m%253Ddfbfebeec3e396a6cb1a8b032a80246c%2526p%253DDK_20251007%2526stpe%253Ddefault/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZsaXZlaW50ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3NTk4MzkzMjguNTk0ODE4Nn0:1v66bI:3HzQVyRbNADKZ7FSyhyMhevz_piDJKs900JGohwp8A8" style="max-width:96px;margin-bottom:7px"/>
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            <span style="text-align:center">
             <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="margin:0 auto">
              <tbody>
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                <td style="line-height:0;font-size:0">
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           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td height="20">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The E.P.A. is sued for canceling solar grants.
         </span>
         <span>
          Solar energy firms, unions and nonprofit groups
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          took the agency to court
         </a>
         <span>
          over the termination of $7 billion in grants intended for the installation of solar panels in low- and moderate-income households. The lawsuit, which accuses the E.P.A. of illegally revoking the money under the Solar for All program without congressional approval, escalates the White House’s efforts to claw back billions of dollars in climate funding approved during the Biden administration.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The S.E.C. is said to investigate AppLovin over how it collected user data.
         </span>
         <span>
          The regulator has focused on whether AppLovin, a mobile advertising tech company, violated service agreements with partners by
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          pushing more targeted advertising than was allowed
         </a>
         <span>
          , Bloomberg reports. The investigation came after a whistle-blower complaint and short-seller reports accusing the company of harvesting proprietary information to track users, according to Bloomberg. AppLovin’s shares fell more than 14 percent on the report.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td height="10">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td height="8" style="background-color:#000;font-size:0;line-height:0" width="100%">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td height="20">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Shutdown update
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          President Trump briefly appeared to take a step toward negotiating an end to the government shutdown with Democrats as the stoppage approached seven days.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          With the first signs of dialogue, political observers eased back their expectations of a lengthy standoff, at least a little.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Here’s the latest:
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Trump told reporters in the White House yesterday that there were continuing negotiations with the Democrats that could
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                “lead to very good things”
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                and that he would “like to see a deal made for great health care.” Senator Chuck Schumer, the minority leader, said that the claim wasn’t true, but that Democrats were
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                ready to negotiate a resolution
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                that extended Obamacare health insurance past the end of the year. Trump then walked back his statement, writing on social media that he was happy to negotiate with Democrats on their “Failed Healthcare Policies, or anything else” — if they
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                voted to reopen the government
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                first.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The Senate voted for a fifth time to block efforts to end the shutdown.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Air travelers faced delays at airports in Denver and Newark because of a
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                shortage of air traffic staff
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                . Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said that there had been a “slight tick-up” in sick days taken by air traffic controllers, who work without pay during shutdowns. (In previous shutdowns, absenteeism tripled for air traffic controllers.) Duffy also warned that the Essential Air Service, a federal program that subsidizes air travel to rural areas, will run out of funding by Sunday unless the government reopens.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Are the odds of a negotiated end to the shutdown improving?
         </span>
         <span>
          Roughly a third of bettors in a Kalshi contract expect the government to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          remain closed for more than 25 days
         </a>
         <span>
          , down from yesterday.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          “We’re definitely on a bit of a sugar high in the U.S. economy right now.”
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          — Ken Griffin of Citadel, on how worries about the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          safety of dollar-denominated assets
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          have driven investors to safe-haven assets
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          like gold
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          , which is near $4,000 per ounce. Griffin added that the flight to safety was “really concerning.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Universities enter their austerity era
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Some of the country’s most prestigious universities are planning for potential funding shortfalls after the Trump administration froze billions in research grants and threatened to end or limit federal support.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Any hope from university officials that the president would soften his stance appeared dashed last week when the administration urged nine schools to sign a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          so-called compact
         </a>
         <span>
          to freeze tuition, cap international student enrollment and abide by other demands in exchange for federal funding priority.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The cuts will turn into a “crisis” within a few years, Cristian Tiu, an associate professor of finance at the State University of New York at Buffalo who specializes in college endowments, told Niko Gallogly. Tiu said universities have been left to “re-budget themselves.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Cutting costs.
         </span>
         <span>
          Some of the targeted universities have announced layoffs, hiring freezes, program cuts and financial aid freezes, among other budgeting measures.
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                Washington University in St. Louis
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                announced last week
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                that it had laid off more than 300 employees and eliminated nearly 200 vacant positions, which has saved $52 million annually, the school said.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                Brown
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , one of the nine schools that received the Trump administration’s “compact” letter,
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                announced late last month
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                that it planned to shave $30 million from its budget, in part by laying off 48 employees and eliminating 55 vacant roles.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                Yale
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                announced last week
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                that it was delaying major projects and offering a retirement incentive program for staff. “We are entering a period of significant financial headwinds,” the provost, Scott Strobel, and other administrators wrote in
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                a memo
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                .
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Seeking liquidity.
         </span>
         <span>
          Chief investment officers at Brown and Northwestern
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          said at a recent Bloomberg conference
         </a>
         <span>
          that with private equity in a continued deal drought, they were tapping into secondary markets for cash, following similar moves by
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Yale
         </a>
         <span>
          ,
         </span>
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                The regional lender Fifth Third agreed to
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                buy Comerica for $10.9 billion
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                , creating a giant new bank with $288 billion in assets. (Bloomberg)
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                JPMorgan Chase
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                named Conor Hillery and Matthieu Wiltz
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                as its European chiefs, succeeding Filippo Gori, who had been doing the job from New York. (FT)
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                expected I.P.O.s of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
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                , sometimes amid strange circumstances. (WSJ)
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                In trade news: President Trump said that
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                25 percent tariffs on heavy truck imports
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                would begin Nov. 1, while
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                Canadian boycotts
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                of U.S. spirits have cut exports to that country by 85 percent (Bloomberg)
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                “
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                ‘The glory days are over
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                ’: consultants in Saudi Arabia curb expansion plans” (FT)
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                Leo Hindery Jr.
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , the cable TV deal maker who helped engineer AT&amp;T’s $50 billion purchase of TCI and led the Yankees’ YES Network, died last month. He was 77. (NYT)
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                Gen Z-ers are
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                escaping screen domination
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                by falling in love with CDs, flip phones and digital cameras (WSJ)
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