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   DealBook: The costs of the strikes on Iran
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   Also, pressure grows on Anthropic.
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             March 2, 2026
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          Good morning. Andrew here.
         </span>
         <span>
          The past few days have been head-spinning. We break down the global economic implications of the attack on Iran: what it means for oil prices and trade, and what instability in the region could mean.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          We’re also still trying to make sense of the Pentagon’s decision to end its contract with Anthropic — while declaring the company a supply chain threat — and how OpenAI swooped in to make its own deal with the government. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Sign up here.
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          )
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            <span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
             Fears of a prolonged and wider war in the Middle East have gripped global markets.
            </span>
            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Altaf Qadri/Associated Press
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Global fallout
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran continued for a third day as President Trump told The Times that the military campaign could
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          last up to five weeks
         </a>
         <span>
          . The prospect of a prolonged war is spooking global markets.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The latest:
         </span>
        </p>
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              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Stocks across Asia and Europe sank this morning, and S&amp;P 500 futures are under pressure. The sell-off hit the tech, banking and travel sectors, while
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Persian Gulf airport closures
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                snarled traffic in the region and beyond.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Defense and energy stocks are up, alongside safe-haven assets like 10-year Treasury notes and the U.S. dollar.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Energy prices have surged, with Brent crude, the global benchmark, trading above $78 a barrel.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                European natural gas prices
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                climbed roughly 28 percent
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                as ship traffic, including vessels carrying crude and liquefied natural gas, was effectively halted around the Strait of Hormuz, the vital trade route bordering Iran.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Other fallout:
         </span>
         <span>
          Since Saturday, Iranian military forces have taken aim at
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          commercial ships in the Persian Gulf
         </a>
         <span>
          , plus
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          oil infrastructure
         </a>
         <span>
          and hotels, including
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          the luxury Fairmont Dubai
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Maersk
         </a>
         <span>
          , the shipping giant, is rerouting some ships away from the Red Sea, and Amazon temporarily
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          shuttered a data center
         </a>
         <span>
          in the United Arab Emirates.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The volatility is forcing banks and hedge funds to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          rethink staffing in a region
         </a>
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
         </span>
         <span>
          that has become a magnet for Western capital.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Analysts are gaming out the costs.
         </span>
         <span>
          Investors largely took last year’s attacks on Iran, which lasted 12 days,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          in stride
         </a>
         <span>
          . But if Washington is intent on regime change in Iran, this campaign could carry a higher toll. (
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Three American F-15E fighter jets
         </a>
         <span>
          were shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses today in an apparent friendly-fire incident, U.S. officials said.) Trump said yesterday that strikes “will continue until
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          all of our objectives are achieved
         </a>
         <span>
          .”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Several oil analysts, including those at WoodMackenzie and RBC Capital Markets, see Brent crude trading
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          at or above $100 per barrel
         </a>
         <span>
          if the war drags on.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          That could slam households and businesses.
         </span>
         <span>
          U.S. energy prices have been subdued for some time. But for every $10 a barrel increase in the cost of oil, the price at the pump could
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          rise by up to 30 cents a gallon
         </a>
         <span>
          , Amy Myers Jaffe, director of the Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab at New York University, told The Times.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Such a prospect could tie the Fed’s hand.
         </span>
         <span>
          Several central bank officials have already warned that inflation remains uncomfortably high. Investors now predict that the Fed will next cut interest rate cuts in July, not June.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Could inflation force Trump to recalibrate?
         </span>
         <span>
          The affordability crunch looks set to be a pivotal issue ahead of midterm elections. “I would expect Trump to go to great lengths to prevent a lasting surge in energy prices that could hurt him at home,” Holger Schmieding, an economist at Berenberg, wrote in a note to investors this morning.
         </span>
        </p>
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </span>
           </h3>
          </td>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The Trump administration tries to slow down tariff refunds.
         </span>
         <span>
          The Justice Department
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          asked a federal appeals court
         </a>
         <span>
          late on Friday to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          wait at least 90 days
         </a>
         <span>
          before ruling on a wave of refund requests filed by businesses after the Supreme Court ruled many of the Trump administration’s levies invalid. The request came hours after President Trump wrote on social media about his aversion to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          refunding that money
         </a>
         <span>
          , and asked about a “rehearing” of the case.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Retail investors pull back from private credit.
         </span>
         <span>
          New investments in funds aimed at individuals
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          dropped 40 percent
         </a>
         <span>
          in January compared with December, to $3.2 billion, The Financial Times reports. The drop in fund-raising and increase in withdrawals has come amid concern about the health of the industry, particularly its
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          significant exposure to software companies
         </a>
         <span>
          at risk of being disrupted by artificial intelligence.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Sales of BYD vehicles plunge in February.
         </span>
         <span>
          The Chinese electric vehicle maker reported that it sold just over 190,000 cars in the month,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          down 41 percent
         </a>
         <span>
          year-on-year and the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          steepest drop
         </a>
         <span>
          since the Covid-19 pandemic, in large part because of sliding domestic sales. It underscores the need for BYD and other Chinese E.V. giants to expand overseas as demand in their home market falls; some in the U.S., like Ford, would like to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          partner with them
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Greg Abel suggests Berkshire Hathaway might do more deals.
         </span>
         <span>
          In his
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          first letter to shareholders
         </a>
         <span>
          as C.E.O. of the conglomerate, Abel noted that Berkshire had more than $370 billion in cash and hinted that some of it may go toward M.&amp;A.: “We will always aim for ownership of productive businesses over U.S. Treasuries.” Berkshire reported nearly $67 billion in profit for 2025, the last year in which Warren Buffett was C.E.O., representing a 25 percent year-on-year drop.
         </span>
        </p>
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           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-top:15px">
           </td>
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           <td>
            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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           <td style="padding-bottom:15px;border-bottom:0 solid #dcdcdc">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td height="10">
           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td height="8" style="background-color:#000;font-size:0;line-height:0" width="100%">
           </td>
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        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Anthropic vs. the Pentagon
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The fallout from the Pentagon’s all-but-declaring war on Anthropic — while signing a deal with OpenAI, the artificial intelligence giant’s archrival — hasn’t fully settled just yet.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Anthropic now finds itself potentially battling the Trump administration to preserve a huge part of its business. And more broadly, the future of the government’s relationship with the A.I. industry has grown fuzzier.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The latest:
         </span>
         <span>
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Anthropic said it would sue
         </a>
         <span>
          over the Pentagon’s designating it a supply chain risk, meaning that other companies cannot use its software for their military work. Adding extra urgency was President Trump’s order to all federal agencies to stop using Anthropic’s Claude software — and then Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declaring that
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          no
         </span>
         <span>
          government contractor can do any business with the company.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Dean Ball, a former A.I. adviser to the Trump administration, called it “simply
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          attempted corporate murder
         </a>
         <span>
          .” But some legal experts said that
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Hegseth’s legal authority
         </a>
         <span>
          only extends to contractors’ military work.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Meanwhile,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          OpenAI has defended
         </a>
         <span>
          its willingness to sign a deal with the Pentagon, saying technical safeguards it would put in place will achieve much of what Anthropic had sought.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Of note: Despite Trump and Hegseth’s attacks on Anthropic, the military used Claude-based A.I. tools to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          help carry out the strikes on Iran
         </a>
         <span>
          , according to The Wall Street Journal.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The back story:
         </span>
         <span>
          Anthropic officials believed on Friday that they were
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          close to a compromise
         </a>
         <span>
          with the Pentagon ahead of a 5:01 p.m. Eastern deadline, The Times reports. One remaining issue was a request that the department give a legally binding promise that it wouldn’t use A.I. tools on unclassified commercial data.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But Emil Michael, the Pentagon official leading negotiations, was irked by Dario Amodei, Anthropic’s C.E.O., not being immediately available to speak — and had already largely negotiated an agreement with OpenAI.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Several big questions now hang over the A.I. industry:
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                Does OpenAI’s agreement resolve the concerns raised by Anthropic?
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                OpenAI said that several safeguards it had built in — including contract language and a solely cloud-based offering — were sufficient limits on government use. But some observers argue that existing laws could
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                still allow for mass domestic surveillance
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , while promises of cloud-only control had
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                plenty of loopholes
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                . Anthropic executives also felt that their current software
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                couldn’t safely control
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                autonomous lethal weaponry.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                What will employees at other Big Tech companies do?
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Many have publicly put
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                pressure on their leaders
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                to support Anthropic. (OpenAI said it doesn’t support designating its competitor as a supply chain threat.) Will they keep that up now?
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                Who’s in the driver’s seat about A.I. use?
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Many business leaders have argued that government policymakers, not unelected executives, should have say over life-or-death matters like military actions. But how much influence can A.I. companies have over potentially dangerous uses of their technology?
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          What lies ahead for Anthropic?
         </span>
         <span>
          The company has sought to reassure customers following Hegseth’s threat. The A.I. developer, which had single-handedly driven billion-dollar volatility in the stock market, had planned on going public this year, potentially leapfrogging OpenAI. Have those plans — which could help bolster its financial strength — been rocked by the latest fight?
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
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           <td height="10">
           </td>
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           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-top:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr aria-hidden="true">
           <td>
            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          “There are easier ways to make $2.8 billion.”
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          — Ted Sarandos, the co-C.E.O. of Netflix, on speculation that the streaming giant’s aim in bidding for Warner Bros. Discovery was to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          drive up the price for its rival, Paramount,
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          and then walk away with a breakup fee. Sarandos also estimated that Paramount would need to cut more than $16 billion in costs to handle the debt it will borrow to finance the deal.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          The new earnings buzz phrase: ‘K-shaped’ economy
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Corporate earnings calls have a lingo of their own. It’s standard for executives to talk about
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          top-line growth
         </span>
         <span>
          , reveal their
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          learnings
         </span>
         <span>
          , and bemoan
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          headwinds
         </span>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But in recent months, a buzzy new phrase has suddenly taken hold: the “K-shaped” economy. It describes a sharp divide between prosperous high-income U.S. consumers, and everyone else.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          For most of last year, “K-shaped” came up on earnings calls less than once per month on average, according to data from the market intelligence platform AlphaSense. But starting in October, it began to spike in frequency. “K-shaped” has already been mentioned on 59 earnings calls in the first two months of 2026, Niko Gallogly reports.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center">
            <img alt='A bar chart shows the rise in companies making reference to "K-shaped" economic concerns.' class="css-xsf469" height="511" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2026%252F03%252F02%252Fbusiness%252F02db-chart-final%252F02db-chart-final-jumbo.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NzI0NTYxNDguMDg4MjU1Mn0:1vx2oO:7Y7H9Q7wce7V_W5zthjkcc1g5biqtHpdUNaskb-5-sc" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          What’s behind the K-shaped trend?
         </span>
         <span>
          The top 10 percent of U.S. households now account for nearly half of all spending, according to Moody’s Analytics. That spending power is driven in part by soaring stock market returns, which makes its way back into the pockets of wealthier households.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          At the same time, inflation and wage stagnation is putting a “massive squeeze” on middle- and lower-income earners, Ben Harris, the vice president and director of Economic Studies at Brookings, told DealBook. That has been
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          driving the political conversation
         </a>
         <span>
          as Democrats and Republicans try to paint themselves as the party with solutions for America’s affordability crunch.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Recently, some economists have
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          splashed cold water
         </a>
         <span>
          on the K-shaped narrative, citing data that consumption levels are stable across income groups. But, that hasn’t stopped executives from name-checking the phenomenon:
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                In the second half of 2025,
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                Walmart
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                saw “more of the diversion between the spending at the upper income level versus the lower income level,” the company’s C.F.O., John David Rainey, told investors this month. That’s “consistent with this narrative around a K-shaped economy.”
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Last month,
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                PayPal
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                lowered its profit expectations for the year ahead as merchant sales slumped, particularly among lower- and middle-income consumers. “Part of this can be attributed to macro factors and a K-shaped economy,” the company’s interim C.E.O., Jamie Miller, told analysts.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                In response to a question about the K-shaped economy,
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                Mondelez’s
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                C.E.O., Dirk Van de Put, warned that the bulk of consumers are “worried about overall affordability,” spending “more money on the basics” like milk and bread and less on snacks.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
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         DEALBOOK WANTS TO HEAR FROM YOU
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          How are tariffs impacting your company?
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          We’d like to know how the tariffs are affecting your business. Have you changed suppliers? Negotiated lower prices? Paused investments or hiring? Have the tariffs helped your business? Please
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          let us know
         </a>
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          . Your response may be used in a future newsletter.
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          We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support.
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             THE SPEED READ
            </span>
           </h3>
          </td>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Deals
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
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            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The Toyota group
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                reached a deal
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                with Elliott Investment Management to
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                privatize its largest subsidiary
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                after raising its offer by nearly 10 percent. (Bloomberg)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                JPMorgan Chase reportedly cut some “
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                high-touch” trading functions
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                it provided for Citadel Securities after Ken Griffin’s firm hired a JPMorgan executive to lead a competing service. (FT)
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Technology and artificial intelligence
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
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            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                “A New Threat to Power Grids:
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Data Centers Unplugging
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                at Once” (WSJ)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Nvidia joined an alliance with Nokia, SoftBank and T-Mobile to ensure 6G wireless networks are
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                friendly to A.I
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                . (Bloomberg)
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Best of the rest
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Blackstone paid its C.E.O. and co-founder, Steve Schwarzman,
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                $1.24 billion last year
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , which was
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-style:italic">
                almost
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                a record. (Bloomberg)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                “He’s Reese’s Biggest Advocate — and
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Hershey’s Biggest Headache
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                ” (WSJ)
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
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             Brian O'Keefe
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             , Managing Editor, New York
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             Bernhard Warner
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             @BernhardWarner
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