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   DealBook: The market’s rebuttal
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   Also, what’s riding on the SpaceX I.P.O.
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             April 2, 2026
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          Good morning. Andrew here.
         </span>
         <span>
          President Trump’s address to the nation did not seem to be inspiring the confidence he was hoping for. Futures are pointing lower as it appears that the war in Iran will continue with no clear end in sight. We’re also taking a look at another war of sorts: Today is the first anniversary of the so-called Liberation Day tariffs. And we examine the details and the stakes of SpaceX’s I.P.O. filing.
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Finally, please join me in congratulating my friend and colleague Michael de la Merced. Tomorrow is Michael’s 20th anniversary with The Times and DealBook. He has been a linchpin of this team for two decades; I am constantly in awe of his talent and judgment. (We’re off tomorrow and will see you again on Saturday. Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Sign up here.
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          )
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            <span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
             Investors were largely unimpressed with President Trump’s address on the war in Iran.
            </span>
            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Doug Mills/The New York Times
            </span>
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Falling flat with investors
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          President Trump pitched
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          his vision of the war in Iran
         </a>
         <span>
          last night. Most investors aren’t buying it.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          In his 19-minute address, Trump reiterated his threats against Tehran, saying the U.S. would bomb the country “back to the stone ages, where they belong.” But he
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          offered little new detail
         </a>
         <span>
          on how Washington would exit the war while containing the economic fallout that has rattled markets and that
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          threatens global growth
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          That ambiguity is now resonating through the markets as hopes of a rapid end to the fighting fade.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The latest:
         </span>
        </p>
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              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil,
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                climbed to near $108 a barrel
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                this morning, after briefly falling below $100 yesterday. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, surged above $108 a barrel.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                S&amp;P 500 futures are sharply lower, erasing much of yesterday’s gains.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Bonds are selling off amid investor fears of lower growth and higher inflation.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Iranian officials are
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                skeptical of engaging
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                in substantial negotiations over ending the war, U.S. intelligence has determined, and
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                rejected Trump’s assertions
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                that its missile and drone system abilities had been severely degraded.
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Israel
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                and some
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Persian Gulf countries
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                reported drone and missile strikes this morning.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
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            <img alt="A line chart show the spike in the price of West Texas Intermediate since the start of the war in the Middle East in late February." class="css-xsf469" height="536" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2026%252F04%252F02%252Fbusiness%252F02db-chart%252F02db-chart-jumbo.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NzUxMzAxNzIuMzQ3MDQ5NX0:1w8GRo:04lz54eTY75hqzPMQ1IRXh5y5owvy0dJoDAMVLfRkaw" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Trump asserted that the war was “nearing completion,”
         </span>
         <span>
          reiterating a previous, if somewhat vague, timeline that the fighting would continue for roughly three weeks. He again urged countries that use the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial conduit for oil and natural gas shipments that Iran has effectively blockaded — to “take care of that passage.” (The Financial Times reported, citing unnamed sources, that Trump threatened to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          halt weapons shipments and supplies to Ukraine
         </a>
         <span>
          unless European countries moved to help fully reopen the strait.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “We will be helpful,” Trump added in his speech, “but they should take the lead in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          He claimed that the waterway would reopen “naturally” when the fighting stops. “Gas prices will rapidly come back down,” he added. “Stock prices will rapidly go back up.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Analysts say it’s more complicated than that.
         </span>
         <span>
          In a best-case scenario, oil and gas shipments from the region would take weeks to return to prewar level of 20 million barrels per day, Claudio Galimberti, the chief economist at Rystad Energy, an independent energy consulting firm, wrote in a research note last night.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The return to normal, he added, is “not automatic.”
         </span>
        </p>
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </span>
           </h3>
          </td>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Investors await tomorrow’s jobs report.
         </span>
         <span>
          The U.S. stock market will be closed for Good Friday, but there will still be keen interest in the March payrolls report; economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          employers added 60,000 jobs last month
         </a>
         <span>
          . Lackluster data could put the Fed in a bind, signaling an economic slowdown as war in the Middle East potentially accelerates inflation.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          G.M.’s sales slump.
         </span>
         <span>
          America’s biggest carmaker reported that first-quarter
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          sales fell roughly 10 percent year on year
         </a>
         <span>
          . The release, which comes as some dealers warn that consumers are feeling the pinch of rising gas prices, leaves the company struggling to figure out how to turn around its fortunes. Up next: Tesla reports its
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          quarterly numbers this morning
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Eli Lilly gets F.D.A. approval for its weight-loss pill.
         </span>
         <span>
          The drugmaker’s stock jumped
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          on the news
         </a>
         <span>
          that a second daily oral GLP-1 treatment has been cleared for sale. Analysts are closely watching to see by how much pill-based versions of GLP-1 drugs expand the weight-loss market.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
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           <td>
            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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           </td>
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        </table>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
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           <td height="10">
           </td>
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           <td height="8" style="background-color:#000;font-size:0;line-height:0" width="100%">
           </td>
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          <tr>
           <td height="20">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center">
            <img alt="Elon Musk wearing a black SpaceX hoodie." class="css-xsf469" height="357" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2026%252F04%252F02%252Fmultimedia%252F02db-musk-ftwq%252F02db-musk-ftwq-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NzUxMzAxNzIuMzQ3NjA2NH0:1w8GRo:lRS0htzgAQ99pavnMibciM6FjYcITP3U3Wh8PGL_rDQ" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-top:6px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:12px">
            <span class="css-1wuwhda" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:left">
             <span class="css-1hnedf7" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
              Elon Musk — and a host of others — stand to gain a lot if SpaceX’s I.P.O. goes according to plan.
             </span>
             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
              Matt Rourke/Associated Press
             </span>
            </span>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          The stakes of the SpaceX I.P.O.
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          NASA isn’t the only one launching big things these days. (More on that below.) SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket, satellite and artificial intelligence company, has
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          filed confidentially for an initial public offering
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          If all goes to plan, the deal would be more than just the biggest I.P.O. ever. It could also lay the groundwork for more technology giants — including Anthropic and OpenAI — to go public at astronomical valuations, too.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          What we know so far:
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                SpaceX is aiming to go public in June.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                It may seek to raise up to $75 billion from the offering, dwarfing the $29 billion that Saudi Aramco raised in 2019. It’s hoping for a valuation surpassing $1.75 trillion.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The company is
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                weighing a dual-class stock structure
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                that would potentially give select shareholders — including Musk — outsize voting control, Bloomberg reported. It may also reserve a big portion of shares, perhaps 30 percent, for retail investors.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The company is an unusual behemoth.
         </span>
         <span>
          It consists of SpaceX, the rocket giant that also owns the Starlink satellite internet company; xAI, Musk’s A.I. lab; and X, the social network once known as Twitter.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Starlink is an important part of the equation, given its dominance of the satellite internet market. “Starlink is the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          only reason this valuation is defensible
         </a>
         <span>
          ,” Shay Boloor, the chief market strategist at Futurum Equities, told Reuters.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          A lot is riding on the I.P.O.:
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                A successful offering would demonstrate that investors have the appetite for mega-listings, at a time when
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                plenty more are on deck
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                . (That said, markets are volatile now, which isn’t usually a great time for I.P.O.s.)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Wall Street banks have been eagerly waiting to shepherd these giants to market, collecting big underwriting fees and significant prestige.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The I.P.O.s of SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI could also generate windfalls for their employees, at least on paper. The three companies alone could collectively mint more than 16,000 millionaires, according to the research firm Sacra.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Going public could give xAI a funding edge over Anthropic and OpenAI, which are much bigger, since SpaceX would be able to tap the public equity and debt markets more easily.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:0 solid #dcdcdc;padding-top:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr aria-hidden="true">
           <td>
            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
             <img alt="Ad" border="0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fliveintent.newyorktimesinfo.com%252Fimp%253Fs%253D1061896%2526li%253DDK%2526m%253Ddfbfebeec3e396a6cb1a8b032a80246c%2526p%253DDK_20260402%2526stpe%253Ddefault/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZsaXZlaW50ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3NzUxMzAxNzIuMzQ3NzMwOX0:1w8GRo:4Rqs-kulPWIzZtnfGDB_mFJmXF09ZMmqH5RAoXsLAXg" style="max-width:96px;margin-bottom:7px"/>
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            <span style="text-align:center">
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              <tbody>
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                <td style="line-height:0;font-size:0">
                 <a class="css-sdwaa1" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline" tabindex="-1" target="_blank">
                  <img alt="Ad" border="0" class="css-63f6sn" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fliveintent.newyorktimesinfo.com%252Fimp%253Fs%253D791919%2526li%253DDK%2526m%253Ddfbfebeec3e396a6cb1a8b032a80246c%2526p%253DDK_20260402%2526stpe%253Ddefault%2526li_coord%253Ddesktop%2526collapse_width%253D600/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZsaXZlaW50ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3NzUxMzAxNzIuMzQ3ODYzMn0:1w8GRo:xKbTbpbBpCwDOtyhlAWNkCK7JiF9l3zDyaQffemrHro" style="display:block;width:100%;max-width:600px" width="600"/>
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            </span>
           </td>
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           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td height="20">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center">
            <img alt="The NASA Space Launch System takes off from Kennedy Space Center, flames and smoke pouring out as it lifts up." class="css-xsf469" height="333" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2026%252F04%252F02%252Fmultimedia%252F02db-artemis-ii-vqkw%252F02db-artemis-ii-vqkw-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NzUxMzAxNzIuMzQ4MTM2NH0:1w8GRo:660E02XImTbkvqk9ICxLiVTmMk-H3DPSDGG0GCQc5tw" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-top:3px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:12px">
            <span class="css-1wuwhda" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:right">
             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:0">
              Kenny Holston/The New York Times
             </span>
            </span>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Pic of the day
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          NASA’s Artemis II mission
         </a>
         <span>
          is underway after a rocket blasted off from Florida yesterday, carrying four astronauts on the first crewed operation to the moon in more than 50 years. Much is at stake, with the U.S.
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          racing against China
         </a>
         <span>
          to establish a lunar outpost and set the new rules for space exploration.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Artemis II has already overcome one snag: a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          briefly malfunctioning toilet
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center">
            <img alt="President Trump holding up a big list of tariff rates in front of a large American flag at the White House last year." class="css-xsf469" height="333" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2026%252F04%252F02%252Fmultimedia%252F02DB-liberationday-anniversary-lhwb%252F02DB-liberationday-anniversary-lhwb-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NzUxMzAxNzIuMzQ4Mzg4fQ:1w8GRo:eZRFAVsdvPiO5VTjPYxFw29dmQQ5cm0xksIAPHoMoYM" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-top:6px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:12px">
            <span class="css-1wuwhda" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:left">
             <span class="css-1hnedf7" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
              President Trump revealing tariff rates in the Rose Garden at the White House last April.
             </span>
             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
              Carlos Barria/Reuters
             </span>
            </span>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Grading Year 1 of Trump’s tariffs
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Today is the first anniversary of “Liberation Day,” President Trump’s seismic trade policy move that has been seared into the minds of economists, business leaders and traders.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          A reminder:
         </span>
         <span>
          Trump declared that he was raising the effective tariff rate on U.S. imports to its
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          highest average level in over a century
         </a>
         <span>
          via a 1977 law known as IEEPA. Business groups and top trading partners protested. Stocks and bonds plunged, wiping away
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          more than $2 trillion
         </a>
         <span>
          in market value overnight. Economists and C.E.O.s predicted
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          recession was nigh
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But a week later, Trump
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          abruptly reversed course
         </a>
         <span>
          on his most bruising levies — the first of what market watchers would later call
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          TACO
         </a>
         <span>
          moments.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The Supreme Court declared the IEEPA tariffs unlawful in February, though the administration has vowed to appeal and to continue taxing imports under different measures. FedEx, Costco and more than 1,000 other U.S. companies are suing to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          claw back more than $100 billion
         </a>
         <span>
          in refunds.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          DealBook talked to economists and trade experts to get their take on the ramifications as Trump’s trade war rumbles on. (The Trump administration is expected to announce as soon as today
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          100 percent levies on some pharmaceutical products
         </a>
         <span>
          , The Financial Times reports.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Glenn Hubbard, professor of finance and economics at Columbia Business School:
         </span>
         <span>
          “The world didn’t end,” admitted Hubbard, a chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under George W. Bush. But he added that he cost of the levies has been borne almost entirely by Americans.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Asked if the tariffs have led to any positive outcomes, Hubbard said: “I’m sure there have been, at the level of individual firms. But I don’t see it sectorally.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          While he disagreed with those who argue that the tariffs signaled the end of globalization, he said trade was being rewired in favor of regional blocs. “The question for the U.S. is how not to get left out.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Gita Gopinath, a professor of economics at Harvard:
         </span>
         <span>
          Gopinath,
         </span>
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
         </span>
         <span>
          a former first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, gave Trump’s tariffs “overall negative” marks. She called the levies a tax that was overwhelmingly paid by U.S. importers and their customers. And there’s no sign they’ve bolstered America’s manufacturing base, one of Trump’s stated aims, she said.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The trade negotiations did force countries with high tariffs, like India, to lower theirs. But Gopinath disputed the administration’s claims that the tariffs generated significant revenue. They’re expected to bring in
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          more than $300 billion this year
         </a>
         <span>
          , which she called too “small” to put “the U.S. debt on a sustainable path.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Gabriel Rodriguez, president of A Customs Brokerage, in Doral, Fla.:
         </span>
         <span>
          The levies have taken a bite out of his business; Rodriguez told DealBook that his firm paid $130 million in tariff duties on behalf of clients last year, up from $27 million in 2024.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But it’s the unknowns — will the administration seek a patchwork of temporary tariffs to replace IEEPA ones or will refunds be paid? — that have forced many clients to hold off on big investments and forgo significant new business projects. “From the importer perspective, it’s been chaos,” he said.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Justin Wolfers, a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan:
         </span>
         <span>
          “Whatever your theory of tariffs may be, the design of these tariffs as implemented didn’t serve it,” Wolfers said. To bring back onshore manufacturing, eh said, companies must be convinced that they’ll have a leg up over international competitors in the future, not just today.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Because Trump bypassed Congress and established them through executive order, the current tariffs are unlikely to survive long term, Wolfers said. “It all disappears on Day 1 of the next Democratic administration. It might even disappear in the next Republican administration.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Oren Cass, the founder and chief economist of American Compass, a conservative economic research organization:
         </span>
         <span>
          Cass has broadly supported Trump’s tariffs, and largely believes they’re a success. They have rewired expectations that globalization was the norm for international trade, he argued, and they’ve led to commitments to invest more in the country — though whether those pledges come to fruition remains to be seen.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Naysayers, Cass said, were wrong to think the policy “would be an economic apocalypse.” That said, he acknowledged that some of Trump’s promises haven’t come to pass. At least, not yet.
         </span>
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             THE SPEED READ
            </span>
           </h3>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          Deals
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The beauty giants Estée Lauder and Puig are reportedly closing in on a
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                mostly stock-based deal
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                to combine, potentially creating a formidable challenger to L’Oreal. (Bloomberg)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                KKR said it had
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                raised about $23 billion
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                for its latest North American private equity fund, a record for the region. (KKR)
               </span>
              </li>
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          Politics, policy and regulation
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        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                President Trump has weighed
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                firing Attorney General Pam Bondi
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                and floated replacing her with Lee Zeldin, the head of the E.P.A. (NYT)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                “How the Threat of A.I. Is Fueling a
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                New Political Alliance
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                ” (Politico)
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
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          </tbody>
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         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Best of the rest
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
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              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The insurance giant State Farm is facing criticism from Trump over
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                its response to the Los Angeles wildfires
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                last year. (WSJ)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Robot umpires are already having a
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                decisive impact
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                on M.L.B. games, leaving
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                human umpires
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                and
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                players
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                struggling to adapt to the new technology. (The Athletic, WSJ)
               </span>
              </li>
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             , Senior Editor, Rome
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