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   DealBook: The math behind Adams’s exit
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             September 29, 2025
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          Good morning. Andrew here. Wall Street and the New York business community got its wish when Mayor Eric Adams dropped his re-election bid. But the truth is that it is probably too late to change the outcome, which clearly favors Zohran Mamdani, the democratic socialist who is the Democratic nominee for mayor.
         </span>
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          Andrew Cuomo will most likely pick up much of Adams’s support, but it is still a small number of votes. And consider this: The louder the business community speaks out against Mamdani, the more it could backfire and raise his popularity among other voters. We’ve got a lot more on all of this below, as well as new details about what could be the largest leveraged buyout deal in history. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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          Sign up here.
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          )
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            <img alt="Mayor Eric Adams is seen turning to his right with his left hand fingering the microphone on a lectern." class="css-3vswge" height="400" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F09%252F29%252Fmultimedia%252F29db-adams-wzkg%252F29db-adams-wzkg-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NTkxNDc0NjMuMjQxNjU5Nn0:1v3CcB:nATvg_Hw6NuLQiDcnjgU8-r6EbmxmJb64Hehwboc7-Y" style="width:100%;height:auto;display:block;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:8px" width="600"/>
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            <span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
             Mayor Eric Adams has called it quits on his re-election campaign.
            </span>
            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Jefferson Siegel for The New York Times
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          The field narrows
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Mayor Eric Adams has
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          called off his re-election bid
         </a>
         <span>
          , after weeks of pressure to drop out.
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          That could help Andrew Cuomo, who has drawn support from high-powered donors who want to stop Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee. But it’s unclear whether Adams dropping out will get them what they want.
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          “Despite all we’ve achieved, I cannot continue my re-election campaign,”
         </span>
         <span>
          Adams said in a nearly nine-minute video yesterday. He blamed “continued media speculation about my departure” and his inability to get public matching funds. (That said, there were numerous scandals that have dogged his administration, as well as Adams’s divisive efforts to court President Trump.)
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Adams didn’t endorse any candidates,
         </span>
         <span>
          though the video he posted on social media omitted sharp criticism of Cuomo that were in prepared remarks circulated to the news media beforehand. In those remarks, Adams said that politicians who waffled on key issues and sought to push others aside in their quest for power “cannot be trusted.”
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Their exclusion left open the possibility that Adams might eventually endorse Cuomo.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Adams had felt pressure from wealthy business leaders,
         </span>
         <span>
          who had increasingly come to believe that the mayor and Cuomo were splitting the anti-Mamdani vote. Among them was Bill Ackman, who had held talks with both Adams and Cuomo before backing the former governor.
         </span>
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          The Trump administration even weighed in, discussing a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          potential ambassadorship for Adams
         </a>
         <span>
          if he dropped out, The Times has reported.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “Thank you @ericadamsfornyc for your service for our city and for stepping aside when the time was right!”
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Ackman wrote on social media
         </a>
         <span>
          yesterday.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Will it matter?
         </span>
         <span>
          Recent polling showed Mamdani drastically ahead when he faced Cuomo, Adams and the Republican candidate, Curtis Sliwa.
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          The math changes
         </a>
         <span>
          if the field narrows, The Times’s Nate Cohn previously reported.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But Sliwa is still in the race, and has shown no interest in dropping out despite calls by Ackman and others. And even with polling analyses suggesting that Cuomo has a better chance now, bettors in prediction markets — which have been praised for correctly nailing the outcome of the 2024 presidential election — think Mamdani is still highly likely to win. His odds of winning are currently at
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          85 percent on Polymarket
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Mamdani himself appears unfazed. “To Andrew Cuomo, you got your wish: You wanted Trump and your billionaire friends to help you clear the field,”
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          he said in a video
         </a>
         <span>
          posted to social media. “But don’t forget, you wanted me as your opponent in the primary, too, and we beat you by 13 points. Looking forward to doing it again on November 4th.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
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           </td>
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </span>
           </h3>
          </td>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          President Trump is set to meet today with congressional leaders as a shutdown looms.
         </span>
         <span>
          Both parties
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          seem far apart
         </a>
         <span>
          before a deadline to reach a funding agreement. Democrats want to see health care benefits extended and are proposing to reverse cuts to Medicaid, while Trump has threatened to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          fire scores of government employees
         </a>
         <span>
          if a deal isn’t reached. Investors are growing concerned that a shutdown could interrupt the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          release of government data
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Could Microsoft become a new target for presidential retribution?
         </span>
         <span>
          Trump said the company should fire Lisa Monaco, a top official in the Obama and Biden administrations whom it hired as a president of global affairs. Microsoft has mostly stayed in Trump’s good graces, but Monaco’s hiring was pointed out by the right-wing influencer Laura Loomer, who urged the president to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          cancel the tech giant’s government contracts
         </a>
         <span>
          — and Trump has become
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          even more combative
         </a>
         <span>
          toward those out of his favor.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The heat is rising for Jay Powell.
         </span>
         <span>
          Trump, who has repeatedly harangued the Fed chair for not lowering interest rates, posted on social media on Saturday a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          cartoon depicting him firing Powell
         </a>
         <span>
          . The broadside comes as several Fed policymakers, including Powell himself, have expressed concerns about making too many rate cuts as inflation hovers above the central bank’s 2 percent target. Many economists increasingly expect Trump to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          replace Powell with a loyalist
         </a>
         <span>
          when the chair’s term expires in May.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
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           <td height="10">
           </td>
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           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-top:15px">
           </td>
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            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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         <tbody>
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          A megadeal at an inflection point for private equity
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Electronic Arts, the struggling video game maker, is closing in on a deal to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          take itself private
         </a>
         <span>
          , at a valuation of around $50 billion. That would be perhaps the largest leveraged buyout, breaking a record set during the height of the private equity boom in 2007.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But a transaction would occur a time when the private equity industry’s fortunes are diverging.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          What we know so far:
         </span>
         <span>
          The Times and others have reported that Electronic Arts is
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          in talks to sell itself
         </a>
         <span>
          to a group that includes Silver Lake, the tech-focused private equity giant; the Public Investment Fund, the Saudi sovereign wealth fund that already owns a roughly 10 percent stake; and Affinity Partners, the investment firm founded by Jared Kushner in 2021.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The potential L.B.O. would be supported by
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          more than $20 billion
         </a>
         <span>
          worth of financing arranged by JPMorgan Chase, according to The Financial Times.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The potential takeover comes at a time of optimism for deal-making.
         </span>
         <span>
          Wall Street has largely shaken off its worries about tariffs and uncertain application of antitrust enforcement. Big deals have been struck in recent months, including Union Pacific’s
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          $85 billion takeover of Norfolk Southern
         </a>
         <span>
          and Keurig Dr Pepper’s
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          $18 billion acquisition of Peet’s
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Investors are also clamoring for a piece of the financing package that JPMorgan is arranging, according to The F.T. “It’s the perfect time to do this deal,” one unnamed lender told the newspaper. “There’s so much demand for paper.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          But the private equity industry itself is a tale of two halves.
         </span>
         <span>
          The winners, including Silver Lake, Blackstone, Apollo Global Management, KKR and EQT, are riding high, striking deals and raising huge funds.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Others are struggling on multiple fronts. They’re finding it harder to find attractive takeover candidates,
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          and
         </span>
         <span>
          to cash out investments they have already made, which makes it trickier to return money to impatient investors. That has translated into trouble for some firms in
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          raising new funds
         </a>
         <span>
          , an ominous sign.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The industry could see a “natural washout,”
         </span>
         <span>
          according to Jim Zelter, Apollo’s president. “I think there’s many, many P.E. funds that are out there that have raised their most recent fund and
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          don’t realize it’s their last fund
         </a>
         <span>
          ,” he said at a conference this month.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Meanwhile, as the potential Electronic Arts deal illustrates, the winners might just keep on going.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          “The scale of this investment and the fact that it’s being made into only one customer raises the question of — are they stimulating artificial demand, which won’t be sustained over time and could produce some severely negative returns down the road?”
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          —
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          David Yoffie
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          , a professor at Harvard Business School and a former Intel board member, on where Nvidia’s huge investment spree, including a pledge last week to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, could be distorting just how much demand there is for its chips.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Exclusive: Coinbase takes on the banks
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Crypto companies spent heavily to get the Genius Act passed this summer, a landmark law that established regulations for stablecoins. Now, they’re lobbying hard to preserve that victory.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Coinbase this morning introduced an influence campaign aimed at U.S. senators, Niko Gallogly is first to report. Its message? Don’t let the banks close a provision that is key to crypto companies’ stablecoin business, an area of digital finance that some predict could
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          grow to roughly $2 trillion by 2028
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The campaign is the latest escalation in a high-stakes policy fight between the crypto and banking industries.
         </span>
         <span>
          Congress passed the Genius Act in July, a law intended to bring stablecoins — digital tokens tied to stable financial assets, including the dollar and U.S. Treasury securities — into the mainstream.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But the law prohibits stablecoin issuers like Circle and Tether from paying interest on those assets, as banks do with many ordinary deposit accounts. The crypto companies got around this by offering customers other financial incentives. For example, Coinbase customers who hold USDC (the stablecoin issued by Circle) can earn
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          4.1 percent in “rewards.”
         </a>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Banks are pushing back.
         </span>
         <span>
          They argue that such earnings are an unregulated payment. Their lobbyists have called it an “
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          interest loophole,
         </a>
         <span>
          ”
         </span>
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
         </span>
         <span>
          and have
         </span>
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          asked Congress
         </a>
         <span>
          to put an end to the practice.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The stakes are immense.
         </span>
         <span>
          Consumers could move as much as $6.6 trillion from bank deposit accounts into stablecoins if stablecoins were interest-bearing, the Treasury Department
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          has estimated
         </a>
         <span>
          . Such a shake-up “would end up increasing lending costs and reducing loans to businesses and consumer households,” the Bank Policy Institute, a banking trade group, warned in a letter last month.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Coinbase, for one, wants to mobilize crypto investors against the banks.
         </span>
         <span>
          Its new campaign makes use of
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          playful social media videos
         </a>
         <span>
          and email and push notifications to its millions of customers. “I think the reaction should be quite intense” from crypto users, Faryar Shirzad, the chief policy officer at Coinbase, told DealBook.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The campaign is being organized in partnership with the nonprofit organization Stand With Crypto, an industry group that is backed by Coinbase and other industry players that became
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          a huge lobbying force
         </a>
         <span>
          for crypto-friendly politicians, including President Trump.
         </span>
        </p>
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             THE SPEED READ
            </span>
           </h3>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Deals
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Occidental Petroleum is said to be in talks to
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                sell its OxyChem petrochemicals division
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                for roughly $10 billion. (FT)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The crypto exchange Kraken is reportedly looking to raise funding
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                at about a $20 billion valuation
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
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                an estimated $22 million
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