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   DealBook: The rate debate
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   Also, Kimmel’s return draws fire from Trump.
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             September 24, 2025
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          Good morning. Andrew here. If you were to cast an actor to play Brendan Carr, the F.C.C. chair, whom would you choose? Jimmy Kimmel picked Robert De Niro for a skit in his return to the airwaves last night. The show’s return infuriated President Trump, who wrote on social media, “I think we’re going to test ABC out on this. Let’s see how we do. Last time I went after them, they gave me $16 Million.” Trump added, “This one sounds even more lucrative.”
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          We’ve got a full rundown of the latest developments and what they portend for politics, business and free speech. If you were Bob Iger, Disney’s C.E.O., what would you have done? (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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          Sign up here.
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          )
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            <img alt="Jay Powell, the Fed chair, is seen seated at a long desk looking over his glasses, to his left." class="css-3vswge" height="400" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F09%252F24%252Fmultimedia%252F24b-powell-zgfb%252F24b-powell-zgfb-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NTg3MTcxNjEuNzU1NDE5NX0:1v1Ofp:gB6c4WSIFjrgviC1n1vCIqftA2eGWysdAFxrCayh0x4" style="width:100%;height:auto;display:block;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:8px" width="600"/>
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             Jay Powell, the Fed chair, has warned that the Fed faces “no risk-free path.”
            </span>
            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Eric Lee for The New York Times
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          The Fed’s “challenging situation”
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          Inflation and unemployment in the U.S. are both rising, and that’s created a division within the Fed itself over which issue to prioritize.
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          The conundrum has been front and center this week as policymakers from the central bank hit the speaking circuit.
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          The Fed faces a “challenging situation,”
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Jay Powell
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          , its chair, said yesterday, after it lowered the benchmark lending rate last week by a quarter point. Cutting interest rates to bolster the labor market could reignite inflation if done too quickly. But holding rates steady could drive employers to hold back on hiring. “Two-sided risks mean that there is no risk-free path,” he added.
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          His comments prompted a stock sell-off as some investors began to question whether the Fed would lower borrowing costs significantly this year and next, as President Trump has been pushing. (Potentially aggravating things, Powell characterized equities as “
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          fairly highly valued
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          .”)
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          Not everybody is on board with Powell’s view.
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         <span>
          Fed policymakers have forecast two more cuts this year, but some Trump appointees on the rate-setting committee
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          want bolder action
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          . They include:
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               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Michelle Bowman
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , the Fed’s vice chair for supervision. Though she voted in favor of the quarter-point cut, she suggested yesterday that the Fed should speed up the pace of more reductions “to address decreasing labor market dynamism and emerging signs of fragility.”
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                Stephen Miran
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , a Trump economic adviser who is now a temporary Fed governor, called for multiple jumbo-size cuts on Monday to reduce the benchmark rate to around 2.5 percent. That’s roughly two percentage points below current levels.
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          Trump, who has been trying to exert more control over the Fed, said in July on social media that the benchmark rate was “
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          AT LEAST 3 Points too high
         </a>
         <span>
          .”
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Still, Powell appears to be speaking for the majority.
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Austan Goolsbee
         </a>
         <span>
          , the Chicago Fed president, warned that with inflation above the Fed’s 2 percent target, “I think we need to be a little careful with getting all really up-front aggressive.”
         </span>
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          That puts added focus on the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index
         </span>
         <span>
          , the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, which is set for release on Friday. Many economists expect to see the “core” reading — which strips out volatile food and fuel costs — to have ticked up by 2.9 percent on an annualized basis.
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           <td height="20">
           </td>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          At the heart of the rate debate is the economic fallout from Trump’s trade war. Powell said yesterday that there were signs that tariffs were pushing up prices, but added that the effect on consumers had shown up “later and less than we expected” in the data.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </span>
           </h3>
          </td>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Paramount Global reportedly plans to hire President Trump’s former antitrust chief.
         </span>
         <span>
          The media company run by David Ellison is set to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          hire Makan Delrahim
         </a>
         <span>
          , who led the Justice Department’s antitrust division during the first Trump administration, for a major role, according to The New York Post. Hiring Delrahim, who had already been advising Ellison in his efforts to buy control of Paramount, could help the media mogul in his plans for further consolidation.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Tech giants announce billions in data-center plans.
         </span>
         <span>
          OpenAI announced plans to partner with SoftBank and Oracle in
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          building five sites
         </a>
         <span>
          across the country, as part of its Stargate initiative. Meanwhile, shares in Alibaba, the Chinese internet titan, jumped to their highest level in nearly four years after the company
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          raised its forecasts
         </a>
         <span>
          for its A.I. spending above the $53 billion level it had set in February.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Tether is said to pursue a $500 billion valuation in new funding.
         </span>
         <span>
          The stablecoin issuer is in talks to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          raise up to $20 billion
         </a>
         <span>
          in a new round, according to Bloomberg. At $500 billion, the crypto company’s valuation would match that of OpenAI, the world’s most valuable privately held start-up. But while Tether has benefited from the Trump administration’s pro-crypto policies, it faces obstacles including growing competition and falling interest rates.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
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          <tr aria-hidden="true">
           <td>
            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Kimmel vs. Trump
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          After nearly a week off the air, Jimmy Kimmel again took the stage of his late-night show, and a national TV audience — minus some major national markets.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          return of “Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
         </a>
         <span>
          looks like it’s again pitting Disney, which had pulled the show last week after the chair of the F.C.C. made implied threats to ABC and its broadcast affiliates, against the Trump administration.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          “I’m not sure who had a weirder 48 hours, me or the C.E.O. of Tylenol,”
         </span>
         <span>
          Kimmel said in
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          an opening monologue
         </a>
         <span>
          that was by turns defiant, joking and somber. Here are some highlights:
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                “It was never my intention to make light of the murder of a young man,” Kimmel said, his voice breaking, addressing criticisms of comments he made about the shooting of Charlie Kirk.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                “A government threat to silence a comedian the president doesn’t like is anti-American,” addressing implied threats to ABC and its affiliates by Brendan Carr, the F.C.C. chair. (Kimmel sarcastically called Carr a “genius” and likened his words to those of a “mob boss.”)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                “I want to thank the people who don’t support my show and what I believe, but support my right to share those beliefs anyway,” mentioning figures like the commentator Ben Shapiro and Senator Ted Cruz, Republican of Texas.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                He teared up in describing how Erika Kirk, Kirk’s widow, said that she forgave the shooter. “That is an example we should follow,” Kimmel said.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Kimmel said he disagreed with Disney for pulling his show, but praised the company for defending him over the years. “Unfortunately, and I think unjustly, this puts them at risk,” he said.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          But Kimmel’s show wasn’t aired live in all national broadcast markets.
         </span>
         <span>
          Nexstar and Sinclair, which together own about 20 percent of ABC affiliates, including those in the Seattle and the Washington D.C. areas, pre-empted the show.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          It isn’t clear whether or when Nexstar or Sinclair would resume showing “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” Barring the show for too long could put the broadcasters in
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          breach of their contracts
         </a>
         <span>
          with ABC. That could lead Disney to moving its programming to other stations in Nexstar or Sinclair markets, potentially whacking their bottom lines.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          What’s the Trump administration’s next move?
         </span>
         <span>
          Before Kimmel returned to the air, the president made his displeasure clear: “I think we’re going to test ABC out on this. Let’s see how we do,”
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          he wrote on social media
         </a>
         <span>
          , saying that he had already extracted a $16 million settlement from ABC. (It was
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          actually $15 million
         </a>
         <span>
          .)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Carr supported Sinclair’s decision
         </a>
         <span>
          not to air Kimmel’s show, writing on X, “We need to keep empowering local TV stations to serve their communities of license.” All signs suggest the F.C.C. chair will continue to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          go after media companies
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          “That caught everyone off guard.”
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          —
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          Jamie Dimon
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          of JPMorgan Chase, who said he and other business leaders were trying to understand how the Trump administration’s sudden changes to the H-1B visa program may affect its staff. The venture capitalist Michael Moritz called the decision “
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          chaotic and half-baked
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          ” and warned that it could hurt U.S. start-ups.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Trump’s game changer at the U.N.?
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          President Trump’s speech before the U.N. General Assembly was long in length and long on grievance. But he surprised many in attendance when he appeared to offer a potential olive branch to Brazil, a major trading partner, and later threw his support behind Ukraine on social media.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Those shifts are being felt in global markets.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The latest:
         </span>
         <span>
          European defense stocks rallied this morning after Trump appeared to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          reverse his stance
         </a>
         <span>
          on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Kyiv was in a position to “fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form” he wrote on social media. “With time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO, the original Borders from where this War started, is very much an option,” he added.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          That’s a reversal from August, when Trump called on Ukraine to cede land to end the war. Investors have apparently taken the view that he wants to see Ukraine’s military keep fighting. (Trump also called Russia a “paper tiger,” and wrote that Vladimir Putin and his country were in “BIG economic trouble.”)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Volodymyr Zelensky
         </a>
         <span>
          , Ukraine’s president, declared the Trump message a “game changer.” That said, European officials worry that Trump is trying to wash his hands of the conflict, which he had promised to end quickly.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Is Trump also shifting gears on Brazil?
         </span>
         <span>
          The country faces 50 percent tariffs on its U.S. exports, which could remap the global trade in
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          soybeans
         </a>
         <span>
          ,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          coffee and steel
         </a>
         <span>
          . During his U.N. speech, Trump blamed the sky-high tariffs on Brazil practicing “censorship” and “judicial corruption.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But Trump said yesterday that he planned to meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva next week, after an encounter with Brazil’s president at the U.N. “At least for 39 seconds, we had excellent chemistry,”
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Trump said
         </a>
         <span>
          , adding such a vibe is important to him whenever he’s weighing a deal.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The price of
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          coffee futures fell
         </a>
         <span>
          , and the country’s currency, the real, rallied against the dollar.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          A Trump ally wasn’t so lucky.
         </span>
         <span>
          A day after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the U.S. would do “what is needed” to help stabilize Argentina’s troubled economy, Trump appeared to set limits on what he’s willing to do, despite having met with the country’s president, Javier Milei.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “We’re going to help them,” Trump said of Argentina. “
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          I don’t think they need a bailout
         </a>
         <span>
          .”
         </span>
        </p>
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             THE SPEED READ
            </span>
           </h3>
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          Deals
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                $7.6 billion worth of I.P.O.s
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                priced in the U.S. in September, making it the biggest month for such deals since 2021. (Bloomberg)
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                Wall Street Is Poaching Bankers
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                in a Red-Hot Job Market” (WSJ)
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                to Work’: Koreans Describe Georgia Raid” (NYT)
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                build a $6.5 billion plant
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                in Texas to help make its obesity pill, after President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on imported drugs. (CNBC)
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                that have forced them to sell electric vehicles, saying the goals were “simply not achievable.” (Bloomberg)
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                “Peter Thiel Wants Everyone to Think More
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                ” (WSJ)
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                promoting the release of her forthcoming album has already sold more than $15 million in presale tickets, after her Eras Tour concert film earned $260 million at the box office. (Vanity Fair)
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                Five Pearls of Wisdom
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                From a Legend of Financial Writing” (NYT)
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