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   DealBook: Trump sees “a mess”
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   Also, Oracle is rattling tech investors again.
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            <div style="width:100%;margin-bottom:31px;font:12px/12px georgia,serif">
             December 18, 2025
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         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Good morning. Andrew here.
         </span>
         <span>
          Breaking:
         </span>
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
         </span>
         <span>
          Trump Media &amp; Technology Group, the publicly traded company that owns Truth Social, just announced that it was merging with TAE Technologies, a private company developing fusion technology. If you’re scratching your head, so are we.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          What does a media company have to do with fusion? Probably nothing, despite the unusual claim by the companies that they are building an “uncancellable infrastructure to secure free expression online for Americans, and now we’re taking a big step forward toward a revolutionary technology that will cement America’s global energy dominance for generations.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The better explanation is that Trump Media is using its overvalued stock to add a speculative fusion company to its business portfolio. It raises the question about why TAE would prefer to go public through this Trojan Horse transaction rather than do so on its own. And, of course, we will have to dig into the various personalities behind the deal, and questions about the role the White House will play in advancing and regulating the fusion industry. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Sign up here.
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          )
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            <span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
             President Trump went on the offensive last night in a prime time address seeking to reframe the discussion around America’s affordability crunch.
            </span>
            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Doug Mills/The New York Times
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Crunch time
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Framed by festive holiday decorations, President Trump tried to flip the narrative on an issue that has
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          dented his approval ratings
         </a>
         <span>
          and looms large before midterm elections next year: America’s affordability crunch.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          In Trump’s
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          18-minute prime time address
         </a>
         <span>
          last night, the president placed ample blame for it on his predecessor, Joe Biden, while offering surprise giveaways, too, including a promise to send $1,776 “
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Warrior Dividend
         </a>
         <span>
          ” checks to U.S. soldiers, paid for by his tariffs.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          “Eleven months ago, I inherited a mess, and I’m fixing it,”
         </span>
         <span>
          the president said, rattling off at times overstated statistics of falling prices and wage gains. But will the American public buy Trump’s message that they and the economy are better off under his leadership?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          There is reason to doubt it. For starters, the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          unemployment rate rose
         </a>
         <span>
          and wage growth fell last month, the latest jobs report showed; and a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          fact-check by The Times
         </a>
         <span>
          found many of Trump’s talking points to be exaggerations and outright fibs.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Trump also promised that “our prices are coming down dramatically,” and that his economic policies would mean Americans would soon find cheaper groceries, pharmaceuticals, mortgage payments and more.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Those words could be tested today.
         </span>
         <span>
          The Consumer Price Index report set to be released this morning is expected to show that inflation remains
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          stubbornly above the Fed’s 2 percent
         </a>
         <span>
          target. Watch what the report says about
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          health care costs
         </a>
         <span>
          , too. There’s now
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          a mini rebellion
         </a>
         <span>
          afoot in Trump’s party involving the suspension of Obamacare subsidies, which threatens to jack up insurance premiums for millions of Americans.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          And then there’s tariffs.
         </span>
         <span>
          Some polls show that Americans largely
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          disapprove of the levies
         </a>
         <span>
          . But Trump yesterday said tariffs helped the administration close billions of dollars in investment deals with businesses. “Companies know that if they build in America, there are no tariffs,” he said.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Trump inherited a headache from Biden: a split-screen economy.
         </span>
         <span>
          “The affluent are fine, if not thriving, while lower-income households struggle with high rent payments, rising delinquencies and job uncertainty,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, wrote in a client note this week. “The K-shaped economy will likely persist in the coming year.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Those conditions may lead the Fed to lower borrowing costs next year,
         </span>
         <span>
          a move that Trump has been chiding policymakers to do.
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Christopher Waller
         </a>
         <span>
          , a Fed governor on Trump’s shortlist to become the next central bank chair, said yesterday that he saw room for more rate cuts. But, he added, there’s “no rush” to do so.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Anticipation that the Fed will lower rates to bolster the labor market has helped underpin an impressive run for the S&amp;P 500, which hit
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          another record last week
         </a>
         <span>
          . But if the hiring slowdown continues, so, too, will the political debate over the true state of the economy.
         </span>
        </p>
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </span>
           </h3>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Wall Street pledges matching funds for “Trump accounts.”
         </span>
         <span>
          BlackRock said it would
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          match the U.S. government’s $1,000 contribution
         </a>
         <span>
          into the investment accounts for children known as “Trump accounts,” while the billionaire investor Ray Dalio and his wife, Barbara Dalio, announced that they would add $250 to the accounts of
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          about 300,000 children in Connecticut
         </a>
         <span>
          . Chime Financial, the fintech firm, also said it would
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          match the U.S. contributions
         </a>
         <span>
          for its workers’ children. Separately, the biggest overall donation of the year, however, was the Nike co-founder
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Phil Knight’s $2 billion pledge
         </a>
         <span>
          — for cancer research.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          An activist investor plans a flurry of transactions.
         </span>
         <span>
          Elliott Investment Management has
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          built a stake of over $1 billion
         </a>
         <span>
          in Lululemon Athletica and is lining up a potential C.E.O. candidate to run the struggling athletic apparel retailer, according to The Wall Street Journal. The activist investor is also
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          eyeing a multibillion-dollar I.P.O.
         </a>
         <span>
          of Barnes &amp; Noble and Waterstones, the bookstore chains it controls, on the market in London or the U.S., The Financial Times reports. And according to Bloomberg, it is
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          wooing investors in Toyota Industries Corporation
         </a>
         <span>
          in a buyout fight.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Warner Bros. Discovery has a tough message for Paramount.
         </span>
         <span>
          The
         </span>
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
         </span>
         <span>
          Warner Bros. board yesterday urged its shareholders to reject Paramount’s hostile takeover bid, signaling its preference for Netflix’s offer. One of its misgivings: Warner Bros. would want Larry Ellison, the Oracle co-founder and the father of Paramount Skydance’s C.E.O., David Ellison, to personally guarantee the part of
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Paramount’s $77.9 billion bid
         </a>
         <span>
          that comes from his revocable family trust as a kind of insurance option. Despite yesterday’s setback, Paramount
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          has refused to surrender
         </a>
         <span>
          in its fight for Warner Bros.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Trump Media &amp; Technology Group’s shares soar on a deal to merge with a nuclear energy company.
         </span>
         <span>
          The holding company for Truth Social
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          will combine with TAE Technologies
         </a>
         <span>
          , a nuclear fusion company, in a deal valuing the combined entity at
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          more than $6 billion
         </a>
         <span>
          . Trump Media &amp; Technology shares rose 31 percent in premarket trading on the news.
         </span>
        </p>
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Oracle’s slump rekindles A.I. jitters
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          If investors needed a target for their rising angst about artificial intelligence spending, they appear to have found one in Oracle. Shares of the cloud computing giant tumbled more than 5 percent yesterday, stoking A.I. bubble concerns that contributed to a broader hit to tech stocks.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Investors sold on news that
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Blue Owl Capital had pulled out
         </a>
         <span>
          of financing a $10 billion Oracle data center in Michigan. (That said, Blackstone and Bank of America
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          could jump in with funding
         </a>
         <span>
          , according to Bloomberg.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Oracle’s plight contrasts with some other A.I. players.
         </span>
         <span>
          Shares in Micron jumped 8 percent in premarket trading today, after the company delivered
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          an upbeat revenue forecast
         </a>
         <span>
          as demand for its memory chips remains especially robust with A.I. developers. And OpenAI has held discussions to raise more money at a valuation of
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          around $750 billion
         </a>
         <span>
          , The Information reported, well above its $500 billion valuation in October.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center">
            <img alt="A line chart shows the relative performance of Oracle's stock versus the S&amp;P 500 this year." class="css-xsf469" height="536" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F12%252F18%252Fbusiness%252F18db-chart%252F18db-chart-jumbo.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjYwNjI4NDIuMTg2NTEwNn0:1vWDcY:Sou0wbptUIjVKCot9mhivz-gs3n3ZzZrybDvYVsNv1g" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Traders have grown nervous
         </span>
         <span>
          about the scale of Oracle’s debt-financed A.I. spending plans. Last week’s
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          earnings report
         </a>
         <span>
          , in which revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations while costs exceeded them, further spooked the market.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Oracle is borrowing huge amounts as it aims to compete with tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon to supply developers computing power to build their A.I. models. That includes its involvement in
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          the Stargate Project
         </a>
         <span>
          , a joint venture that includes OpenAI and SoftBank and that plans to invest up to $500 billion in A.I. infrastructure.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Oracle’s new investment-grade bonds have been trading like junk bonds
         </span>
         <span>
          . And one measure of its credit risk — Oracle’s credit default swaps — has ballooned to the most precarious level
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          since the financial crisis
         </a>
         <span>
          in 2009. That threatens to make its A.I. buildout more expensive.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Then there was the bombshell buried in Oracle’s 10-Q report:
         </span>
         <span>
          $248 billion of lease-payment
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          commitments for data centers
         </a>
         <span>
          and cloud capacity arrangements, a splurge that far outpaces its peers.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The company’s 10-K annual report detailed the risk:
         </span>
         <span>
          “If we overestimate customer demand or our data center capacity needs, we could be locked into multiyear commitments for excess data center space, resulting in lower profitability and cash flows.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The markets are overreacting
         </span>
         <span>
          , says Dave Novosel, a senior analyst at Gimme Credit, a ratings firm. Oracle’s business operation is profitable enough, he says, to cushion any blow from an A.I.-driven cash burn.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “When you see negative free cash flow of $20 billion, that’s a cause for concern,” Novosel told DealBook. “That’s a red flag. And I saw the red flag, too. But as I analyzed it, I said, ‘They can still get away with this.’”
         </span>
        </p>
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          The A.I. start-up Lovable secures a big raise
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Artificial intelligence is rapidly disrupting software development. There’s perhaps no clearer example of that than Lovable, the A.I. start-up that allows users to quickly spin up websites and apps — no coding necessary.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The company will announce this morning that it has
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          raised $330 million in new financing
         </a>
         <span>
          . Lovable’s C.E.O., Anton Osika, detailed his plan to use that funding in an exclusive interview with DealBook’s Niko Gallogly.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The new round values Lovable at $6.6 billion
         </span>
         <span>
          , more than triple its $1.8 billion valuation set by investors in July. The investment was led by CapitalG and Menlo Ventures, and also includes Khosla Ventures, Accel, EQT and others.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Lovable, based in Stockholm, was founded in 2023 by Osika and Fabian Hedin. Osika — who has been building software since the age of 12 — came up with the idea after making a coding assistant for software engineers. “I realized, oh, you should not build this for engineers, you build it for the 99 percent” of people who don’t code, Osika told DealBook.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Lovable’s growth has been dramatic
         </span>
         <span>
          since it introduced its latest product in November 2024. It now has $200 million in annual recurring revenue, up from $100 million in July, and about 320,000 paying customers. Lovable, which is not profitable, offers a free tier of its service as well as monthly subscriptions of $25 for individuals and $50 for businesses.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The $330 million in new funding will be spent achieving two goals: integrating Lovable with other software providers and improving Lovable’s engineering abilities so that customers aren’t just making product demos or mock-ups but introducing products on Lovable-built software. To achieve that goal, the company expects to double its 120-person team in the next 12 months.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Competition is fierce.
         </span>
         <span>
          Existing web design and prototyping developers like Figma and Replit are investing heavily in coding products similar to Lovable. And the bigger competitive threat may come from the larger A.I. companies, such as Google, OpenAI and Anthropic, that make the models that start-ups like Lovable use as the backbone of their technology.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Competing with OpenAI or Google requires building a “beloved layer” of software that can sit on top of those companies’ models and that customers want to pay for, said Matt Murphy, a partner at Menlo Ventures. With Lovable, he added, “the numbers speak for themselves.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          At least for now.
         </span>
        </p>
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            <span>
             THE SPEED READ
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          Deals
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        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Medline Industries’ shares soared
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                in trading debut yesterday, after the medical supplier raised $6.3 billion in the biggest listing since 2021,
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               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                raising hopes for the I.P.O. market
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                . (WSJ, Bloomberg).
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Comcast had reportedly
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               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                made a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                that would have involved a merger of Comcast’s NBCUniversal division valuing the combined entity at $81 billion. (Bloomberg)
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                The real estate company Howard Hughes Holdings will
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