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   DealBook: “Very bad” future
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   Also, the Fed faces challenges in Iran and Trump.
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             March 16, 2026
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          Good morning. Andrew here.
         </span>
         <span>
          Oil prices are jumping amid fears that it could take much longer to resolve the Strait of Hormuz situation than the Trump administration has suggested. I spoke with William H. McRaven, a retired admiral who oversaw the raid that killed Osama Bin Laden. He told me that it could take more than a month to get ships and other military equipment to the area to demine the strait. Even then, many boats may not want to take the risk of navigating the waterway. We might need to settle into the idea of expensive oil for quite some time. More below.
         </span>
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         <span>
          Meanwhile, I’m in Los Angeles post-Oscars. Here’s something to think about: Some Hollywood executives and actors who attended the ceremony told me they were making bets on Kalshi before — and during — the event. How do you feel about that? Let me know. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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          Sign up here.
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          )
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             Paralyzed ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt the global energy market as well as geopolitics.
            </span>
            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Benoit Tessier/Reuters
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         <span>
          Strait talk
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          With no clear end in sight to the war in Iran, President Trump is pressuring other nations to get involved to try to limit the economic toll.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Trump reserved his strongest words for NATO
         </span>
         <span>
          , telling The Financial Times that the alliance faced a “
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          very bad” future
         </a>
         <span>
          if it did not do its part to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil exports flows through the strait. And the war has virtually paralyzed maritime traffic, sending fuel prices soaring since the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began on Feb. 28.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          In the same interview, the president also suggested that
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          he “may delay” talks
         </a>
         <span>
          , set for the coming weeks, with President Xi Jinping of China if Beijing doesn’t help in easing the bottleneck. That comes as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          meeting with He Lifeng
         </a>
         <span>
          , China’s vice premier, in Paris today to address the countries’ many trade differences, which involve agriculture exports, critical minerals and more.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The latest:
         </span>
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                U.S. stock futures point to gains, but the S&amp;P 500 “is on the cusp of true pullback territory,” Lori Calvasina, the head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note to investors yesterday, noting markets’ growing concerns about the war.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, briefly topped
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                $106 a barrel
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                in choppy trade this morning.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Trump told NBC News yesterday that Iran “
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                wants to make a deal
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                .” But Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, later
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                vowed to continue the fight against the U.S. and Israel
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                .
               </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The Hormuz coalition idea is already facing uncertainty.
         </span>
         <span>
          Japan and Australia have said they
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          have no plans
         </a>
         <span>
          to send warships; Britain, the E.U. and South Korea were noncommittal. India is
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          holding direct talks
         </a>
         <span>
          with Iran about getting safe passage, according to the FT, an offer that Tehran has already extended to China.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Trump and his administration have also put the media on notice.
         </span>
         <span>
          Brendan Carr, the chair of the Federal Communications Commission, threatened to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          revoke broadcasters’ licenses
         </a>
         <span>
          over their coverage of the war after accusing them of “running hoaxes and news distortions.” Trump later supported Carr in a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          post social media
         </a>
         <span>
          in which he went after several of his perceived enemies, including news outlets and late-night comedians.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Meanwhile, the price of the war is climbing.
         </span>
         <span>
          Gas prices continued rising, hitting an average of
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          $3.72 a gallon
         </a>
         <span>
          . Chris Wright, the energy secretary, said yesterday there were “
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          no guarantees
         </a>
         <span>
          ” that oil prices would fall in the coming weeks.
         </span>
        </p>
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </span>
           </h3>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Warner Bros. dominates the Oscars.
         </span>
         <span>
          The studio racked up
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          nearly a dozen Academy Awards
         </a>
         <span>
          last night, highlighted by “One Battle After Another” (which won best picture and best director, among other honors) and “Sinners” (Michael B. Jordan received an Oscar for best actor). The wins cap a banner year for the studio before Paramount’s planned takeover of its parent company; that merger deal has drawn opponents
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          like the Teamsters
         </a>
         <span>
          union and several attorneys general.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Meta reportedly plans major layoffs.
         </span>
         <span>
          Shares in Mark Zuckerberg’s social media giant rose more than 2 percent in premarket trading this morning after Reuters reported that the company
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          could lay off about 20 percent
         </a>
         <span>
          of its some 79,000 employees. It would be the latest round of tech layoffs, as companies try to offset their huge investments in artificial intelligence. Separately, shares of the overall “Magnificent Seven” group of tech giants — which includes Meta —
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          fell into correction territory
         </a>
         <span>
          on Friday, dropping to more than 10 percent below their October high.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          U.S. airline executives push Congress to end the partial government shutdown.
         </span>
         <span>
          The C.E.O.s of 10 major U.S. airlines and aviation companies
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          warned lawmakers
         </a>
         <span>
          that it was “simply unacceptable” that Transportation Security Administration officers
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          missed their first full paycheck
         </a>
         <span>
          last week after Congress failed to approve Department of Homeland Security funding amid a standoff that involves immigration enforcement rules. Union officials warned that
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          airport delays could worsen
         </a>
         <span>
          before the busy spring break travel period.
         </span>
        </p>
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          The Fed conundrum
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          It’s shaping up to be a momentous week for market watchers. Some of the world’s biggest central banks, including the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, will hold policy meetings.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Economists see them standing pat on interest rates. But investors are bracing for what the central bank chiefs say about how the war in the Middle East could affect growth and inflation.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          In short:
         </span>
         <span>
          Europe and Asia are expected to feel the pain from the war more acutely than the U.S., which could force central banks in Europe to delay cuts or even
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          raise
         </span>
         <span>
          rates this year.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          There’s drama hanging over the Fed, too.
         </span>
         <span>
          On Friday,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          a federal judge rejected subpoenas
         </a>
         <span>
          issued by the Justice Department as part of a criminal investigation into Jay Powell, the Fed chair, related to his role in the renovation of the central bank’s headquarters. The decision could be a major blow against President Trump’s efforts to use the legal system to exert pressure on the Fed.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “There is abundant evidence that the subpoenas’ dominant (if not sole) purpose is to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the president or to resign and make way for a Fed chair who will,” the judge, James Boasberg, wrote in the decision.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The Trump administration’s response could muddle Fed succession.
         </span>
         <span>
          Powell’s term as chair is set to expire in May. And Trump’s pick to replace him — Kevin Warsh —
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          faces obstacles
         </a>
         <span>
          . Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, reiterated on Friday that he would block Trump’s choice to lead the Fed as long as the investigation continues.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Trump’s orbit isn’t backing down.
         </span>
         <span>
          Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney in Washington overseeing the case and a Trump loyalist behind the legal push against Powell, vowed to appeal the decision and file a motion requesting Boasberg to reconsider.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Watch for questions about Powell’s future at the news conference on Wednesday.
         </span>
         <span>
          He could stay on as a Fed governor until the end of January 2028. Speculation about him serving his full term has become a hot topic again, fueled by the release of new legal filings about the case alongside the decision on Friday.
         </span>
        </p>
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             DealBook Quiz
            </span>
           </h3>
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         </tbody>
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Gulf airlines take a hit
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          This question comes from a recent Times article. Click an answer to see if you’re right. (The link will be free.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          For business travelers, the Persian Gulf region has become a crucial hub partly because of the rise of three major airlines: Emirates in Dubai; Etihad Airways in Abu Dhabi; and Qatar Airways in Doha. Roughly 227 million travelers flew to, from or through the region last year. But the war in Iran has disrupted numerous flights, including briefly today at Dubai International Airport after what the authorities called “
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          a drone-related incident
         </a>
         <span>
          .”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Before that episode, how many flights to and from the Middle East have been canceled since the war began on Feb. 28?
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Almost 33,000
               </a>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Roughly 39,500
               </a>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Nearly 46,000
               </a>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                More than 52,000
               </a>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
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            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Worldview: What’s next for sanctions?
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The Trump administration’s decision last week to temporarily suspend sanctions on Russian oil continues to ripple across the globe.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Moscow is welcoming the development. European leaders, though, are up in arms about the prospects of Russia using the windfall profits to fund the war in Ukraine.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Legal experts and economists are closely watching what this might mean for the future of a widely used foreign policy tool.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The war in Iran has been a boon for Russia
         </span>
         <span>
          , which predominantly sells steeply discounted oil to countries like India and China. The recent spike in oil prices will bring Russia tens of billions of dollars in additional revenue, Harsh Pant, a vice president at Observer Research Foundation, a research organization based in New Delhi, wrote on
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          the Indian news outlet NDTV
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Few are declaring sanctions dead
         </span>
         <span>
          . But European officials worry that their suspension could be long-lasting. “We see the easing of sanctions on oil, on Russia, by the U.S.
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          is a dangerous precedent
         </a>
         <span>
          ,” Kaja Kallas, the top E.U. diplomat, said today.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          But the respite for Moscow could be fleeting.
         </span>
         <span>
          Russia’s
         </span>
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
         </span>
         <span>
          oil industry is creaking, with aging infrastructure and sky-high borrowing rates, according to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Igor Lipsits
         </a>
         <span>
          , a Russian economist. “Russia has reached a point where the oil business is unprofitable,” Lipsits wrote
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          in The Moscow Times
         </a>
         <span>
          shortly before the war in Iran began.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          “Shadow fleet” ships are worth watching.
         </span>
         <span>
          There may be about 215 million barrels of Russian oil on about 370 vessels, according to the Israeli maritime
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          intelligence data firm Windward
         </a>
         <span>
          and Vortexa, an energy-cargo tracking firm. Almost half of the vessels already faced sanctions from the U.S., Britain and the E.U.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “Some already-loaded cargoes are being allowed to complete delivery, while sanctioned vessels themselves remain exposed to interdiction and enforcement action,” Windward wrote in an analysis to clients on Friday.
         </span>
        </p>
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                Triton Partners
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               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                raised €5.5 billion
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                (about $6.3 billion) for its largest buyout fund to date amid a tough fund-raising environment and accusations of inappropriate workplace behavior. (Bloomberg)
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