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   DealBook: What inflation problem?
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   Also, a mega-merger in the grocery aisle.
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             October 14, 2022
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              Good morning. JPMorgan Chase
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              <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               beat profit estimates
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              — but also reported higher-than-expected reserves for future loan losses. Wells Fargo
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               also surpassed analyst forecasts
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              . Shares of both were up in premarket trading. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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              )
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                  Lucas Jackson/Reuters
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             Another “roller coaster” day in the markets
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             You’d have to go back to March 2020, in the early days of the Covid pandemic, to find a trading session more volatile than yesterday’s. The extreme rebound in stocks left Wall Street veterans struggling to explain exactly what happened.
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              The fireworks started ahead of the opening bell
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             when the
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Consumer Price Index report
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             showed core inflation hit a 40-year high last month. Investors sold on the news as they anticipated the Fed would have little choice but to continue with a series of jumbo interest rate increases to stabilize prices. But about an hour into the trading day, the selling stopped, and the buy orders started flowing in — and just kept coming.
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             Lloyd Blankfein, the former C.E.O. of Goldman Sachs, summed up just how out of whack the trading was. “This is one of those trading days where if you had the news in advance (above-expected C.P.I.), you REALLY would have lost a lot of money,”
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              he tweeted
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             .
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             Here’s a review of what went down and what to expect next.
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              30,038.72.
             </span>
             That’s where the Dow Jones industrial average closed yesterday, a ho-hum gain of 2.8 percent. But inside that big number was another startling one: a 1,508-point trough-to-peak intraday rebound. The S&amp;P 500 jumped by a similar amount, gaining more than 5 percent from its early-session low.
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             “The term roller coaster is one of the most overused, lazy terms to describe markets, but the last 24 hours are best summed up by being a major roller coaster ride and actually home to one of the biggest intraday turnarounds in living memory,” Jim Reid, a markets strategist at Deutsche Bank, said in his morning note today.
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              What happened?
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             Reid cited the theory,
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              shared by Bloomberg
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             , that automatic buy orders may have kicked in once the S&amp;P had fallen to a level 50 percent below the high reached in the most recent bull market. Another theory: investors got caught in a classic squeeze. Yes, the bears pounced on the disappointing C.P.I. data. But then strong quarterly results from airlines, including Delta, later in the day gave investors even more incentive to buy.
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              Investor exuberance spread to Asia and Europe this morning
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             . Hong Kong-listed tech stocks gained more than 5 percent in the morning session and the Stoxx Europe 600 was 1 percent higher at the open, before both gave up some of their gains. At 7 a.m. Eastern time, U.S. futures were gaining once again.
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             Investors will face another data-packed session today: The closely watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey comes out at 10 a.m. Eastern. Before that, we get a raft of bank earnings.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              China prepares to crown President Xi Jinping.
             </span>
             The nation’s Communist Party congress on Sunday will officially give him an unprecedented third term,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              cementing his control
             </a>
             over the government. But Xi must still confront a slowing economy, tensions with Washington and continuing struggles with the coronavirus.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Senator Elizabeth Warren criticizes Wells Fargo over instant-payment fraud rates.
             </span>
             Warren pointed to what she said was a
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              high rate of fraud claims
             </a>
             from customers of the bank who use the Zelle platform. Wells Fargo pushed back on her accusations, the latest that criticize Zelle — which is owned by major banks — for letting scams flourish.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Twitter seeks information on the S.E.C.’s inquiry into Elon Musk.
             </span>
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Court filings released yesterday
             </a>
             show that the company is looking to obtain more correspondence between Musk and
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              regulators
             </a>
             about their investigation of the deal. The regulatory inquiry, which is focused on Musk’s antics like tweeting that he “cannot move forward” with the deal, had
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              already been disclosed
             </a>
             .
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Netflix finally unveils its ad-supported service.
             </span>
             The company announced
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Basic With Ads
             </a>
             , which will cost $6.99 a month and show four to five minutes of advertising per hour. Shares in Netflix jumped 5 percent on the news, as investors hope it will revive the company’s faltering fortunes.
            </p>
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              Amazon’s latest sales event falls flat.
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             Analysts said the company’s 48-hour “Prime Early Access” sale likely
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              drew fewer orders
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             than the more established Prime Day event in July. It’s a sign that Amazon may face growing difficulty in spurring price-conscious consumers to keep spending during the economic slowdown.
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             A megamerger in the grocery aisles
            </h2>
           </td>
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        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Kroger agreed this morning
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              to buy Albertsons
             </a>
             for about $24.6 billion, including debt, creating a grocery goliath with revenues of more than $200 billion. News of the deal, one of the biggest ever in the retail sector, took industry insiders by surprise given the intense amount of regulatory scrutiny it is likely to generate. Core inflation is soaring, with food prices
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a particular culprit
             </a>
             . The Biden administration last year
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              vowed to step up regulatory oversight
             </a>
             of segments of the food chain, starting with meatpackers, where corporate concentration is believed to be keeping profits and retail prices high.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The merger raises a number of questions.
            </p>
           </td>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              “Why now?”
             </span>
             was the big question on bankers’ minds yesterday. Albertsons effectively put itself up for sale in
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              February
             </a>
             as it struggled to contend with its larger rivals (Kroger, Walmart). And its largest investor, the private equity firm Cerberus, has tried to sell its stake
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              plenty
             </a>
             of
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              times
             </a>
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              before
             </a>
             . The deal could be costly for Kroger’s, threatening, for example, its
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              investment-grade debt rating
             </a>
             in a period of rising interest rates. And, with the midterm elections less than four weeks away, a merger like this that would be felt by so many American households is likely to become a hot-button political issue.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Would selling stores be enough to get the deal done?
             </span>
             Wells Fargo analysts estimated that Albertsons
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              would have to sell roughly a quarter of its stores
             </a>
             and pointed to significant overlap between the two chains, particularly on the West Coast. Lina Khan, chair of the F.T.C., has expressed doubts on whether divestitures are sufficient to allay antitrust concerns. “They’re going to face a level of scrutiny that grocery mergers have not in the past,” William Kovacic, a former F.T.C. chairman,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              told The Times
             </a>
             .
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Could it lead to lower prices?
             </span>
             Since the start of the pandemic, grocers have been caught in a tug of war between suppliers determined to raise prices to lock in profits, and shoppers struggling with inflation. The deal could give Kroger and Albertsons more leverage with consumer brands, while also shrinking their costs. “We surmise that cost synergies are likely a major factor driving these talks, in addition to increased size and scale to compete with the pocketbooks of Walmart and Amazon,” wrote Arun Sundaram, an analyst at CFRA Research.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             That’s assuming of course that they can close the deal.
            </p>
           </td>
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       </div>
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           </td>
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           </td>
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        </table>
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           <td align="left">
            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             U.K. markets bet on a tax U-turn
            </h2>
           </td>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Prime Minister Liz Truss of the U.K. has
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              fired Kwasi Kwarteng
             </a>
             , her finance minister and an architect of her deeply unpopular fiscal package, according to media reports this morning. That comes as markets have increasingly bet on a withdrawal of the package’s unfunded tax cuts, one that could be announced today.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Kwarteng headed home early from Washington,
             </span>
             where he had been attending a meeting of the International Monetary Fund.
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              His unscheduled departure
             </a>
             seemed to excite the financial markets. The pound rebounded, to about $1.13, as did the price of government bonds. The rally in gilts, as the bonds are known, is all the more impressive considering that a Bank of England gilt-market rescue program expires today.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Critics, from investors to a
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              former Bank of England governor
             </a>
             to the
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              president of the I.M.F.
             </a>
             , have stressed for weeks that Truss’s tax cuts couldn’t survive political reality. Borrowing costs for the British government and British homeowners alike have climbed over the past month, amid worries that the cuts would lead to overheated inflation,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              forcing the Bank of England
             </a>
             to raise interest rates higher than planned.
            </p>
           </td>
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        </table>
       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Britain’s government is as unstable as ever.
             </span>
             Lawmakers are openly (if anonymously) wondering if Truss herself can survive a humiliating reversal, and some are even
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              proposing new leaders
             </a>
             . (It’s worth noting that actually replacing her right now would be extraordinarily tricky.)
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Investors may get their wish on a tax-cut reversal, but they must still confront a government with little credibility or political support — one that still faces rising inflation, an energy crisis and other economic problems with no easy solutions.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
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        </table>
       </div>
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           </td>
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        </table>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             “I don’t know if it could be a soft landing — I don’t think so, but it might.”
            </h2>
           </td>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              —
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               Jamie Dimon
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              of JP Morgan Chase, on the recession risk facing the United States.
             </span>
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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           </td>
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        </table>
       </div>
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           <td align="left">
            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Musk to Pentagon: Time to pick up the Starlink tab
            </h2>
           </td>
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        </table>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Elon Musk won plaudits when SpaceX donated Starlink satellite internet terminals to Ukrainian forces seeking to repel Russian invaders. But he is now insisting that the
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              U.S. pay more for the service
             </a>
             , drawing the ire of Washington and Kyiv.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              SpaceX cited fast-rising costs in a letter to the Pentagon,
             </span>
             CNN reports. Ukraine is using some 20,000 Starlink units, which the company estimated would cost more than $120 million for the rest of the year and up to $400 million over the next 12 months. SpaceX can’t fund the system “indefinitely *and* send several thousand more terminals,” Musk
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              tweeted
             </a>
             following the report.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              SpaceX’s request has annoyed the Pentagon
             </span>
             . Most of Ukraine’s terminals, and some of the monthly service charges, were at least partially paid for by Western governments including the U.S., the U.K. and Poland, as well as through crowdfunding drives. An unnamed U.S. official complained to CNN that SpaceX had sought good publicity by offering Starlink while relying on others to foot that bill. (Starlink has already been criticized for
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              service outages
             </a>
             in Ukraine.)
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              Musk and Ukraine aren’t getting along.
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             Officials including President Volodomyr Zelensky criticized Musk after he suggested a peace plan that would have required Ukraine to permanently cede Crimea and other regions to Russia.
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             But Musk’s habit of needling Ukrainian officials shows little sign of stopping. In response to a tweet about the CNN report, Musk said he was
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              “just following” the recommendation
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             of a Ukrainian ambassador who had told him to get lost, in profane terms.
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              Relying heavily on a famously mercurial billionaire
             </a>
             for crucial war equipment — or rockets for spaceflight — raises potentially troubling policy concerns for sovereign countries, writes The Financial Times’s Gillian Tett.
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               Skydance, the movie production company behind “Top Gun: Maverick” that was founded by the son of Larry Ellison,
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                was valued at $4 billion
               </a>
               in a financing round led by KKR. (FT)
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               Venture capitalists, short on investing opportunities in private companies, are
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                buying public stocks instead
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               . (WSJ)
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               Goldman Sachs is now offering
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                high-yield savings accounts
               </a>
               for Apple Card holders. (TechCrunch)
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               New York’s attorney general publicly questioned whether the Trump family had
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                formed a new company in Delaware
               </a>
               to shift assets out of New York State. (NYT)
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               Colleges have failed to
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                adequately disclose their relationships with banks
               </a>
               , potentially driving students into costly and unnecessary services, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. (WSJ)
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               The S.E.C.
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                accused National Realty Investment Advisors
               </a>
               and four executives of running a Ponzi-like fraud scheme. (S.E.C.)
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             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               “Why Ian May Push Florida Real Estate Out of Reach for
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                All but the Super Rich”
               </a>
               (NYT)
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               Meet Daniella Cavallo, the union official who is quietly one of
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                the most powerful figures at Volkswagen
               </a>
               . (FT)
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               A Scottish philosophy professor at Oxford University has unexpectedly become a
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                guru to Silicon Valley and Wall Street moguls
               </a>
               . (NYT)
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