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   DealBook: Ye’s test for Twitter
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   Also, a rough quarter for earnings?
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             October 10, 2022
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                  Ye’s return to Twitter didn’t last long.
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                  Nina Westervelt for The New York Times
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             To Ye, or not to Ye
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Ye, the designer and musician formerly known as Kanye West, showed this weekend why Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter and his vision of free speech could become problematic for the platform.
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             The scandal
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              began offline
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             last week, when Ye wore a T-shirt bearing the words “White Lives Matter” — a phrase that the Anti-Defamation League has labeled “white supremacist” — at his Paris fashion show. He sent models down the runway in the same shirts.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The response was swift.
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             Adidas said on Thursday that it was reviewing its relationship with Ye, and the musician Sean Combs, the rapper known as Diddy,
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              criticized him
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             publicly for the shirts. Ye responded by declaring “war,” and said Combs had acted under the control of Jewish people. For that comment, Instagram, owned by Meta, restricted Ye’s access to his account.
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              Mayhem then ensued on Twitter.
             </span>
             Ye returned to the social network on Saturday after a two-year absence. Yesterday he posted an antisemitic rant, including a menacing-sounding threat that he would soon be going “death con 3 On JEWISH PEOPLE.” He also accused Mark Zuckerberg, the C.E.O of Meta, which owns Instagram, of getting him removed from the platform. All that earned him another trip to the penalty box. Twitter ultimately hit Ye with a temporary suspension from the platform.
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              What would Musk do in this situation?
             </span>
             Musk has promised to take a different approach to content moderation if he ends up owning Twitter. It’s unclear what he has in mind, but his comments about wanting to build the “
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              de facto public town square
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             ” to uphold democracy and free speech suggest he’ll support a more free-flowing exchange of ideas, even if that
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              turns off some advertisers
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             . Others
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              aren’t so sure
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             Musk would ever allow Twitter to turn into a toxic sewer.
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              Where does Musk stand on the Ye controversy?
             </span>
             Hard to know. Musk extended the mercurial artist a hearty “
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Welcome back to Twitter, my friend!
             </a>
             ” greeting on Saturday, and has said nothing about him since.
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             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Ben Bernanke is awarded the Nobel economics prize.
             </span>
             The former Fed chair and two other academics were recognized for their
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              research into banks and financial crises
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             . Their insights “have improved our ability to avoid both serious crises and expensive bailouts,” the chair of the prize committee
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              said
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             .
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Russia launches missile strikes across Ukraine.
             </span>
             The
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              attacks on several cities
             </a>
             , including the capital, killed at least five people and knocked out power. They were an apparent retaliation for a blast that damaged a key bridge connecting Russia and the Crimean peninsula.
            </p>
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              South Carolina pulls money from BlackRock over E.S.G.
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             The state’s treasurer plans to
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              withdraw $200 million
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             from the firm by year end, joining states like Louisiana and Utah. Red states have committed to pulling investments to
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              punish the firm
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             over its commitment to environmental investing policies.
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              Harvey Weinstein’s second sex crimes trial begins today.
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             The disgraced movie mogul faces 11 charges in
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              a trial
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             in Los Angeles. He faces life imprisonment if convicted, regardless of whether his conviction in New York is overturned on appeal.
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Why Elon Musk may have little wiggle room
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             All manner of questions still swirl around Elon Musk’s off-again-on-again $44 billion takeover bid for Twitter. One big puzzler: What was Musk thinking in returning to the $54.20-per-share offer
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              after negotiations for a cut-price deal fell apart?
             </a>
             That he
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              really
             </span>
             didn’t want to do his deposition is one theory. DealBook has another one.
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              What we know about renegotiation talks:
             </span>
             Possibly at the suggestion of the super-agent Ari Emanuel (who was friendly with both Musk and the Twitter board member Egon Durban), the two sides had talks last month about renegotiating the deal. Conversations ultimately settled around a deal that
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              reportedly
             </a>
             would have shaved about $4 billion from the asking price. We know a little bit about why those talks fell apart: Twitter was focused on certainty around closing the deal, and wouldn’t let up on litigation. Could that be a reason Musk walked away?
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              What if a $4 billion cut was actually
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              more
             </span>
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              expensive for Musk?
             </span>
             The banks that are on the hook to lend Musk $12.5 billion to finance the deal may have viewed any reopening of negotiations as a possible out — to either walk away or revise the terms of their loans to Musk. That’s what happened in 2007 during the
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              leveraged buyout of HD Supply
             </a>
             after the loan market
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              imploded
             </a>
             . Similarly, the financing environment has worsened since Musk first struck the deal, and the banks are now staring down a potential
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              $500 million in losses
             </a>
             .
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Had Musk pushed Twitter to redo the deal, the banks could have tried to reprice their loans at higher interest rates, pushing financing costs up for the billionaire. Or they could have pushed to reduce the total amount of debt they funded, making Musk — who is on the hook for all of the remaining equity — personally responsible for a larger portion of the deal. (Most likely it would have been some combination of the two.) Was there a situation where shaving $4 billion off the total deal price was not actually worth it to Musk?
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The banks’ debt commitments appear to prevent him from altering the deal in “material” ways.
             </span>
             That could give banks a “decent argument” to push for revised debt arrangements, since judges often view price as material, said Eric Talley, a professor at Columbia Law School. Regardless of what happened in recent weeks, a price cut may now be even less likely. Twitter is asking Musk for interest on every extra day the deal drags on past last month’s shareholder vote endorsing the transaction. That means it is costing Musk more than $54.20 with each passing day.
            </p>
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             A rough quarter awaits investors
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             It’s earnings season, with the S&amp;P 500 heavyweights PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines and the big banks set to report third-quarter results this week. Investors’
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              big fear
             </a>
             : Companies will reveal that the combination of inflation and slowing economic growth has eaten into profits.
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              It’s a mixed picture.
             </span>
             Just 65 companies in the S&amp;P 500 have warned that third-quarter results are likely to disappoint, according to the market data firm FactSet, while 41 companies have delivered earnings upgrades. And S&amp;P 500 companies are expected to report that on average, revenue jumped by nearly 9 percent last quarter. But profits are only expected to grow by 2.4 percent, the most lackluster increase since the worst days of the Covid pandemic in 2020.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Almost all of the earnings growth is coming from the energy sector.
             </span>
             Of the 11 sectors in the S&amp;P 500, only four — energy, airlines, real estate and consumer discretionary industries like restaurants and hotels — are expected to show overall growth. The bottom lines of energy companies are expected to jump an average of 117 percent versus a year ago, which is the biggest increase of any sector. Without the 21 energy companies in the S&amp;P 500, the bottom lines of the remaining companies would actually drop, by 4.2 percent on average, according to Bank of America.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The strong dollar is bad news for multinational companies.
             </span>
             Although the recent rise in the dollar is a boon to U.S. travelers, it’s bad news for exports, which make up about 40 percent of sales for S&amp;P 500 companies. A strong dollar means American goods are more expensive to overseas buyers, and less profitable back home when foreign revenues are converted into dollars. John Butters, a senior earnings analyst at FactSet, says that of companies fessing up to earnings problems, about half have pointed to the dollar as a contributing factor.
            </p>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             “There is a risk that almost everything Mark has outlined about the metaverse is right, except the timing is farther out than he imagined.”
            </h2>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              —
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               Matthew Ball
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              ,
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              a Silicon Valley investor who has advised Mark Zuckerberg, warning that Meta faces a big timing risk as it bets billions on constructing a virtual world where users can play, work and socialize.
             </span>
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
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        </table>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             PayPal gets burned in the culture wars
            </h2>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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             PayPal stumbled into the culture wars late last week when an apparently errant policy update set off an uproar over whether the company was seeking to police users over misinformation.
            </p>
           </td>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The trouble began on Friday,
             </span>
             when The Daily Wire, a conservative news site,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              reported
             </a>
             that a pending update to PayPal’s acceptable use policy would include a fine of up to $2,500 for users who “promote misinformation.” The report gained traction in right-wing circles, where some critics accused PayPal of censoring conservatives.
            </p>
           </td>
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             PayPal has been
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              outspoken on political and social issues
             </a>
             , including discrimination and hate speech, drawing the ire of conservatives. Right-wing critics say the company has gone too far in banning some accounts, including the Free Speech Union, a group that says it stands against “cancel culture.” (That decision
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              was reversed
             </a>
             .)
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              There was blowback from some surprising quarters.
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             Conservative activists said they would stop using PayPal amid the uproar. But the critics were joined by David Marcus, a former president of the company, who
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
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             : “@PayPal’s new AUP goes against everything I believe in. A private company now gets to decide to take your money if you say something they disagree with. Insanity.” To which
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Elon Musk, a PayPal co-founder, replied
             </a>
             , “Agreed.” That said, PayPal’s
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              existing acceptable use policy
             </a>
             already bars users from using the service for activities that involve promoting hate, violence or “racial or other forms of intolerance that is discriminatory.”
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              PayPal said the document was published in error.
             </span>
             “PayPal is not fining people for misinformation and this language was never intended to be part of our policy,” a spokeswoman for PayPal said in a statement. “We’re sorry for the confusion this has caused.” The spokeswoman declined to comment on the origins of the wording or why it was withdrawn.
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               The vaping company Juul added
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                two corporate restructuring experts to its board
               </a>
               as it weighs a potential bankruptcy filing. (Bloomberg)
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                narrowed its claims
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               against Meta in its lawsuit opposing the company’s takeover of the virtual reality start-up Within Unlimited. (WSJ)
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               The U.S. and Germany are publicly pushing the World Bank to
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                do more to address climate change
               </a>
               . (FT)
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               New York City declared a
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                state of emergency
               </a>
               over a migrant crisis it said could cost at least $1 billion to deal with. (NYT)
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               Britain’s government will
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                unveil its fiscal plan
               </a>
               and economic forecasts on Oct. 31, nearly a month ahead of schedule, amid pressure from investors and lawmakers. (Bloomberg)
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               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                California’s bullet-train project
               </a>
               has become a multibillion-dollar nightmare. (NYT)
              </span>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Why Elon Musk’s dream of a WeChat-like super-app in the U.S.
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                may not fly
               </a>
               . (TechCrunch)
              </span>
             </li>
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               Whistle-blowers accused EY of
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                whitewashing suspicious trades
               </a>
               on behalf of a client. (FT)
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             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The electric carmaker
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Rivian recalled 13,000 vehicles
               </a>
               — nearly all of those it has delivered thus far — over an issue that could affect steering. (NYT)
              </span>
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               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Nikki Finke
               </a>
               , the Hollywood journalist who founded Deadline and often acerbically called out movie executives, died yesterday. She was 68. (Deadline)
              </span>
             </li>
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               Your new iPhone might think you’ve been in a car crash — when you’ve really
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                just ridden a roller coaster
               </a>
               . (WSJ)
              </span>
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