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   The investing week ahead |
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               👋 Hi Sarah. Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead and what you might've missed last week.
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               Down To Business
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               Let’s get right to it: a key US jobs report is set to hit the inbox, and this glimpse into company payrolls tends to say a lot about the health of the world’s biggest economy.
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                        🔍 The focus this week: The US job market
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                        🗂️ On Friday, the US will release its monthly labor report – one of the most closely watched data releases. It’ll show how many jobs the economy added in March, whether unemployment is still creeping higher, and whether wage growth is still running hot enough to keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) feeling cautious about cutting interest rates.
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                        The timing isn’t ideal. February’s report was a disappointment – the economy lost 92,000 jobs, instead of adding the 50,000 or 60,000 that were forecast. And to make matters worse, employment gains made in December and January were revised down, shaving a further 69,000 jobs off the original tallies.
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                        ► The Fed will be paying close attention. The central bank has made it clear: it wants to see real signs of softness in the job market before it starts moving again to cut lending rates. So a strong March report could push those trims further out. Another weak one, though, would likely bring forward expectations for rate trims later this year – and that could pull down the US dollar and Treasury yields with it.
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                       <p data-block-key="7oh49" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Still, while Friday's report will grab headlines, investors are already thinking beyond it. After all, the data is backward-looking, capturing a snapshot from earlier in the month. Meanwhile, new pressures are building in the economy that could nudge the labor market up or down.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="91kog" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        🛢️ Energy is one of them. With diesel above $5 a gallon – thanks to the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz – costs are rising across freight, manufacturing, and agriculture. And when margins get squeezed, hiring tends to follow. Trucking, food production, and other industries with thin cost structures are especially exposed, and that could start showing up in payroll figures if prices stay elevated.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="5o3ob" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
                        🤖 And then there’s AI. More companies are pointing to automation, not weak demand, as the reason for slower hiring – particularly in areas like information services, professional roles, and back-office functions. And that distinction matters. An economy that’s growing but hiring less is a different problem than one that’s contracting outright. And it’s not really what the Fed's models were built for – which is part of the reason why policymakers are cautious about reading too much into any single report.
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                        📅 On the calendar
                       </p>
                       <ul style="padding: 0; margin: 0; list-style-type: disc; margin-left: 19px;">
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                         <b>
                          Monday:
                         </b>
                         Eurozone economic confidence (March).
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="afmks" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Tuesday:
                         </b>
                         Japan unemployment (February), Japan retail sales (February), Japan industrial production (February), China manufacturing PMI (March), eurozone inflation (March), US consumer confidence (March), US job openings and labor turnover survey (February).
                         <b>
                          Earnings
                         </b>
                         : Nike.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="193c1" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Wednesday:
                         </b>
                         Japan business sentiment (Q1), eurozone unemployment (February), US retail sales (February), US manufacturing PMI (March).
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="bc6n4" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Thursday:
                         </b>
                         US trade balance (February).
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="4628d" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0;">
                         <b>
                          Friday:
                         </b>
                         China services PMI (March), US labor market report (March). Markets closed in the US, UK, and Europe.
                        </li>
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                        👀 What you might’ve missed last week
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                        <b>
                         🌐 The World
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                        War doesn't just disrupt oil – it disrupts dinner. The Gulf Region supplies a big share of the world's urea, an important nitrogen fertilizer. With the Strait of Hormuz shipping waterway effectively closed, urea’s price is now up almost 50%, compared to a month ago. Corn is up 10% over the same period. The broader worry is that higher fertilizer and energy costs will work their way through the entire food supply chain and show up on grocery store shelves.
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                        <b>
                         🇺🇸 The US
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                        BlackRock CEO Larry Fink didn't mince words last week. Speaking to the BBC, he said if Iran continues to threaten the Hormuz shipping lanes, oil could climb to $150 – and tip the world into recession. Crude prices pulled back by 4% on Wednesday after reports that the US had sent Iran a 15-point ceasefire proposal. That said, the war has all but halted oil and LNG shipments through the Hormuz waterway – in what the IEA has called the biggest supply disruption in history.
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                        🇪🇺
                        <b>
                         Europe
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                        Europe is feeling the effects of another nearby conflict. The euro zone's composite PMI fell to a ten-month low of 50.5 in March, barely above 50 – the threshold that separates growth from contraction. Business surveys across the US and Japan told the same story, as the war simultaneously slows growth and pushes consumer prices higher. Gasoline is up more than 10% across the EU and diesel over 20%, and the European Central Bank has started to warn about a coming inflation increase.
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