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               👋 Hi Sarah. Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead and what you might've missed last week.
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               Welcome To The Club
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               The eurozone just reported its biggest jump in inflation since 2022, and it’s not going to be the only one.
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                        🔍 The focus this week: US inflation
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6az05" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        On Friday, the US will release its inflation data for March, and with the war in Iran disrupting global shipping and forcing up prices on oil and other things, investors are bracing for bad news.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="bmsff" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        The eurozone’s already shown the world what this might look like: consumer prices there
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         rose
                        </a>
                        2.5% in March, up from February’s 1.9%, driven mostly by higher energy costs. And with oil and diesel prices rising globally, the very real concern is that America and other economies might soon find themselves in a similar boat.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="90nd1" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        That’s particularly important in the States because inflation there was already proving stubborn. It’s been sitting well above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) 2% inflation target, which is why policymakers have been cautious about cutting interest rates too quickly.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="fn89j" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        ► Energy
                        <i>
                         really
                        </i>
                        drives things.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="t0c0" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Rising fuel costs tend to ripple across the economy – making transportation, food, manufacturing, and just about everything else more expensive. If March’s data starts to reflect that kind of spillover, it will suggest that inflation isn’t just taking its time slowing down – but is actually accelerating again.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="eb4a7" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        ► But expectations are the real headache.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="aqjip" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Short-term inflation expectations have been climbing, and the geopolitical backdrop could push them even higher. Longer-term expectations are still fairly chill, but it's the short-term numbers that tend to move markets and influence buying activity.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="fdt38" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        That’s more important than it might seem. When households and businesses expect higher inflation:
                       </p>
                       <ul style="padding: 0; margin: 0; list-style-type: disc; margin-left: 19px;">
                        <li data-block-key="6ubql" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         Workers push for higher wages
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="e33gb" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         Companies raise prices in anticipation
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="e3nm8" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0;">
                         Consumers bring forward spending
                        </li>
                       </ul>
                       <p data-block-key="27s1s" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="20puq" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        That dynamic can root inflation where it sits, making it harder to bring back down.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="712uk" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        ► That’s why sentiment matters too.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="19ldi" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Alongside the consumer price index (CPI), investors will also be checking out the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – which surveys folks on their short- and long-term inflation expectations. If those shift higher, it adds to the risk that inflation will stick around longer than anyone wants.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="1cl4h" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
                        ⚠️ The stakes are high. A bigger-than-expected rise in inflation – or a sharp jump in expectations – could give the Fed pause, pushing interest rate cuts further out and lifting bond yields. On the other hand, a milder result would suggest that, despite the turmoil in energy markets, underlying inflation is still easing.
                       </p>
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                        📅 On the calendar
                       </p>
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                        <li data-block-key="gn5an" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Monday:
                         </b>
                         US services PMI (March). Markets closed in the UK and Europe.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="f3o73" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Tuesday:
                         </b>
                         Japan household spending (February), US durable goods orders (February).
                        </li>
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                         <b>
                          Wednesday:
                         </b>
                         Eurozone retail sales (February), Federal Reserve meeting minutes.
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         Delta Air Lines.
                        </li>
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                         <b>
                          Thursday:
                         </b>
                         US personal income and outlays (February), US personal consumption expenditures price index (February).
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="4espm" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0;">
                         <b>
                          Friday:
                         </b>
                         China inflation (March), US inflation (March), US factory orders (February), US consumer sentiment (April).
                        </li>
                       </ul>
                      </div>
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                        👀 What you might’ve missed last week
                       </p>
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                        <b>
                         🌏 Asia
                        </b>
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                       </p>
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                        The Iran war’s economic damage is no longer confined to oil markets – it’s starting to show up across the global economy. In China, smaller export-focused factories are already feeling the squeeze from higher fuel, freight, and raw material costs. Across Asia, manufacturing is still growing, but it’s clearly losing steam as energy disruptions push prices up and governments start preparing for a longer-lasting shock. And because Asia sits at the heart of global manufacturing, when cost pressures build there, they rarely stay there.
                       </p>
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                       </p>
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                        <b>
                         🌎 North America
                        </b>
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                       </p>
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                        Over in the US, a different side of the same story is starting to emerge. New data showed that job openings fell and hiring slowed in February to its weakest pace since 2020, suggesting employers were already cautious even before the current hostilities began in the Middle East. Now, with uncertainty rising and oil prices pushing operating costs higher, businesses may become even more reluctant to hire. That leaves the Fed facing a difficult mix: softer labor demand on one hand, but renewed inflation risks on the other. Put it together, and the global economy is starting to look a bit like stagflation-lite – slower growth, stickier inflation, and fewer easy decisions for central banks.
                       </p>
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                    Stay classy ✌️
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                    Your Finimize Analyst team
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