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   The Fed’s meeting and the investing week ahead |
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               👋 Hi Sarah. Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead and what you might've missed last week.
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               Last Call
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               The year’s nearly done, but the Federal Reserve still has one more decision to make before closing time.
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                        🔍 The focus this week: The Fed’s year-end meeting
                       </p>
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                        <b>
                         📅 The Federal Reserve (Fed) meets this week for its final decision of the year, and investors think they know which way it’s leaning.
                        </b>
                        They’ve laid odds on a 90% chance of another interest rate cut. After all, the job market’s weakened, growth risks have crept up, and borrowing rates are sitting uncomfortably high for an economy that’s clearly cooling. Inflation is still well above the Fed’s 2% target, and policymakers aren’t exactly unanimous in their outlook, but they mostly agree on one thing: the bigger risk is keeping rates too high for too long.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="d8edn" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <b>
                         🧐 Still, you can’t say the data’s been crystal clear.
                        </b>
                        The government shutdown has made key releases messier than usual. So while some of the Fed’s members think the US is in a real slowdown, others aren’t so sure. And that group’s been warning that back-to-back cuts could heat inflation back up again. With that debate still raging, there’s still a chance that the Fed will keep rates right where they are – for now.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="3vhcp" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <b>
                         🔮 But, honestly, the bigger question isn’t about this meeting – it’s about what comes next.
                        </b>
                        The Fed is facing its widest disagreement in years about where the “neutral rate” is – basically, the level where interest rates stop pushing the economy up or down. The policymakers’ estimates now span the broadest range in over a decade, and that disagreement matters: it makes the path forward harder to map. See, the Fed’s key rate is already near the upper edge of some officials’ neutral-rate estimates, so every new cut becomes a tougher sell.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="cpn4o" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
                        <b>
                         🫧 And while everyone’s focused on the rate cut odds, there’s a subplot bubbling up: liquidity.
                        </b>
                        The Fed just wrapped up balance-sheet tightening, and money markets are starting to feel the pinch. So the Fed may soon roll out “reserve management purchases” – small, technical buys of ultra-short Treasury bills to keep things running smoothly. It’s not stimulus; it’s more like maintenance. But if it suddenly becomes the headline, you’ll know why.
                       </p>
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                        📅 On the calendar
                       </p>
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                        <li data-block-key="gn5an" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Monday:
                         </b>
                         China trade balance (November).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         Oracle.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="a2snt" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Tuesday:
                         </b>
                         US job openings (September and October).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         GameStop.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="7japt" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Wednesday:
                         </b>
                         Fed interest rate decision, China inflation (November).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         Adobe.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="f34re" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Thursday:
                         </b>
                         US PPI (October and November).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         Broadcom, Costco, Lululemon.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="d553c" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0;">
                         <b>
                          Friday:
                         </b>
                         UK economic growth (October).
                        </li>
                       </ul>
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                    If you want to find Asia’s best investments, you need to think local.
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                   While global investors crowd into the same mega-cap trades, Aberdeen Asia Focus PLC focuses on an overlooked, growth-focused pocket: well-run, under-the-radar Asian small caps.
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                   Their team is on the ground – meeting founders, walking factory floors, and spotting what you won’t see from a Bloomberg terminal.
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                   That insight creates a high-conviction portfolio built to catch early-stage growth in markets that move fast.
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                   You don’t have to be local to invest local: Aberdeen Asia Focus PLC is listed on the London Stock Exchange.
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                    *Aberdeen Investment Trust’s Important information
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                    Risk factors you should consider prior to investing:
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                   The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up and investors may get back less than the amount invested.
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                   Past performance is not a guide to future results.
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                    Other important information:
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                   Issued by abrdn Fund Managers Limited, registered in England and Wales (740118) at 280 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 4AG. The company is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK.
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                        👀 What you might’ve missed last week
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                        <b>
                         💵 The US
                        </b>
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                        Anthropic just got even more serious about going public. The AI startup has hired Wilson Sonsini – the Silicon Valley firm that handled Google and LinkedIn’s listings – and early chatter suggests it wants to beat OpenAI to the market. Word is, the Claude-maker is already lining up a funding round that would value it above $300 billion. Nothing’s locked in yet, and 2026 is still the earliest likely launch date, but the wheels are clearly turning for what could be one of the biggest IPOs in history.
                       </p>
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                        US private employers cut 32,000 jobs in November, and that was a major disappointment, considering economists had forecast a slight
                        <i>
                         gain
                        </i>
                        in new jobs. Small businesses did most of the slashing, shedding 120,000 roles. ADP, which compiles the monthly data, called that drop a “canary in the coal mine”, which doesn’t bode well for the economy. But it does strengthen the case for a third Fed rate cut when policymakers meet this week.
                       </p>
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                        💶
                        <b>
                         Europe
                        </b>
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                        Eurozone inflation crept up to 2.2% in November, overshooting the European Central Bank’s target for a third straight month. Services inflation stayed stubbornly hot at 3.5%, prices in Germany added even more fuel to the fire, and core inflation just didn’t budge from its 2.4% pace. The data all but guarantees that the ECB will stand pat on rates this month, though traders are still expecting more rate cuts next year.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="2leem" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
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                        💴
                        <b>
                         Japan
                        </b>
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                        Japan, meanwhile, saw the yield on its 10-year bond pop to 1.92% – its highest level since 2007. And it saw its 30-year yield jump briefly to a record 3.44%, before sliding lower again after a blockbuster auction. Behind the scenes, investors were bracing for some hefty stimulus spending and another potential rate hike from the Bank of Japan. The volatility shows a market waking up to the idea that the country might finally be ready to adopt a real rate-hiking cycle – one with potential spillovers far beyond its shores.
                       </p>
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                    Your Finimize Analyst team
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