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   Plus: Don’t put off your job search.
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               Monday, December 15, 2025
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               Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images
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               Good morning, Quartz readers! It’s Shannon Carroll with the Daily Brief. Today, mortgages stay grumpy after another Fed cut, December job seekers quietly discover the hiring cheat code, holiday shoppers squeeze budgets between sales and tariffs, and a new survey crowns the foulest-mouthed English-speaking nation.
               <span class="ql-cursor">
                
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              <span style="font-size:18px;color:#168DD9">
               HERE'S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
               <span class="ql-cursor">
                
               </span>
              </span>
             </h2>
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             <div>
              <strong style="font-size:16px;color:#000000;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               Costco’s whales are doing the heavy 
lifting.
              </strong>
              <span style="font-size:16px;color:#000000;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               Executive Members now drive 74.3% of sales, turning a warehouse club into a case study in how asset-rich households keep spending while
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="everyone else tightens up." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;font-size:16px;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFF;text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">
               everyone else tightens up.
              </a>
              <span style="font-size:16px;color:#000000;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               
              </span>
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20px;line-height:1.5;vertical-align:top;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#000000;mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
             <div>
              <strong style="background-color:#FFFFFF;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px">
               Alarm bells are ringing over H200 exports.
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:#FFFFFF;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px">
               From Warren on the left to Graham and Hawley on the right, lawmakers say letting Nvidia ship 
advanced chips to Chinese customers risks boosting Beijing’s
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="AI and military ambitions." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;background-color:#FFF;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">
               AI and military 
ambitions.
              </a>
             </div>
            </td>
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             <div>
              <strong style="font-size:16px;color:#000000;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               People are feeling festive and financially cornered.
              </strong>
              <span style="font-size:16px;color:#000000;font-family:Helvetica 
Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               Polls show Americans cutting back, hunting the cheapest options, and financing the rest on plastic even as tariffs and high prices undercut Trump’s
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="promises of quick relief." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;text-decoration:none;font-size:16px;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFF;" target="_blank">
               promises of quick relief.
              </a>
             </div>
            </td>
           </tr>
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             <div>
              <strong style="background-color:#FFFFFF;font-family:Helvetica 
Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px">
               Southwest is finally flirting with the lounge life.
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:#FFFFFF;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px">
               The carrier is teaming up with Chase to build its first lounge in Honolulu and explore a network, angling for business travelers long pampered
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="by Delta, United, and American." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;background-color:#FFF;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">
               by Delta, United, and American.
              </a>
             </div>
            </td>
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                  SPONSORED
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                   Let’s be honest — marketing can feel like a full-time job on top of your actual full-time job. But it doesn’t have to.
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                   Constant Contact’s AI tools are built to do the heavy lifting, like brainstorming fresh ideas and creating new content, in basically no time.
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               HOME ECONOMICS
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              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               The Fed cut rates again last week — its third straight cut of 2025 — taking the federal funds target range to 3.5%–3.75%. 
But while mortgage shoppers may have heard “cut” and pictured “cheaper,” mortgages don’t take hints from the Fed funds rate; they mostly track the 10-year Treasury yield. The immediate market reaction to the headline news was basically a shrug: 30-year fixed mortgages barely moved, drifting from 6.35% to 6.26% in two days and still sitting above the 6.13% level after October’s cut. Fed chair Jerome Powell also made clear that his Fed is in no mood for a cutting spree, projecting a single quarter-point cut in 
2026.
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              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               What moves mortgage rates is the messy stuff — inflation, jobs data, geopolitics, and plain old supply-and-demand for loans. And that backdrop is why the “rate cuts = instant housing relief” theory keeps failing its exams. Unemployment has climbed to 4.4%, with 7.6 million Americans out of work. Employers have announced more than 1.17 million job cuts through November, a 54% jump from the first 11 months of 2024 and the highest level in five years. Tariffs are working the other
side of the ledger, with an average per-household tax increase of about $1,100 in 2025 and $1,400 in 2026. Against that backdrop, cheaper mortgages come with a warning label: “You want the 5% mortgage rate, but do you want what comes with it?” said Colin Robertson, the founder of The Truth About Mortgage blog.
              </span>
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             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               Housing forecasts for 2026 sketch out a slow thaw rather than a snapback. Industry watchers expect 30-year fixed rates to hover just above 6% while moderating home prices and 
incomes that finally catch up nudge affordability in the right direction. “Sales will increase only slightly because affordability will improve just enough to lure some on-the-fence buyers,” according to a new Redfin report. “Still, even without drastic declines in borrowing costs, 2026 is a year for small wins,” said Kara Ng, senior economist with Zillow Home Loans. “Affordability is set to gradually improve as modest rises in home values mean that incomes can catch up.” For anyone trying to time that moment, the better move is to watch the 
data, not the stagecraft. “Focus less on the Fed, more on the economic data,” Robertson said, and keep one eye on the 10-year — because that’s the number that actually answers your lender’s call.
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="Quartz’s Deborah Kearns has more on the 
rate cut that didn’t turn into relief." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;font-size:16px;text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">
               Quartz’s Deborah Kearns has more on the rate cut that didn’t turn into relief.
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                   Semafor Technology
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                    Subscribe for free.
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               SEASON'S MEETINGS
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               December may look like a hiring graveyard on the calendar, but the numbers say it’s actually more of a cheat code. “According to the data we track, there’s actually quite a bit of hiring activity in December as 
companies anticipate Q1, 2026 needs,” said Lacey Kaelani, CEO of job-search-engine platform Metaintro. At the same time, applicant volume drops by 20% to 25% because most people assume “no one hires” at year-end. “For those job seekers who actively apply during December, this ends up offering a huge opportunity with less competition,” Kaelani said. If you’re willing to send résumés while everyone else is wrapping presents, you’re basically skipping the line.
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               Recruiters know it — and 
love it. “Companies often have use-it-or-lose-it headcount to fill, and proactive candidates stand out far more easily in a quieter inbox,” said Margaret Bui, a talent acquisition manager at U.K.-based Mixmax. “As a recruiter, I’ve extended offers in the last week of December and started new interview processes over the holidays. The candidates who are visible now are the ones getting those calls.” Kaelani warns that January is “a time when everyone returns to job searching at the same time,” which means “three or four times as many applicants 
for the same position” and “recruiters and hiring managers are inundated with applications in January.” Wait for the “fresh start,” and you’re walking into a stampede.
              </span>
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             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               Use parties and family gatherings as low-stakes networking — “sending a holiday email or card to targeted members of your network may spark a conversation that could lead to career advice or even a connection to someone who is hiring,” said MaryAnne Hyland of Adelphi University. Bui says to tighten your LinkedIn 
headline, send warm outreach now, and book chats “after the holidays” so you’re already in motion when January rolls around. Career coach Steven Lowell tells job seekers to ignore “no longer accepting applications” labels and remember “we’re in a global economy,” where “you can't treat your job search as a part-time project and expect full-time results.” He landed his first post-college job as a toy demonstrator at FAO Schwartz by asking a manager on the spot. He added, “Job seeking never goes on vacation.”
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="Quartz’s Brian O’Connell has more on the LinkedIn refresh and warm-outreach note that can set you up for next year." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;font-size:16px;text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">
               Quartz’s Brian O’Connell has more on the LinkedIn refresh and warm-outreach note that can set you up for next 
year.
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Mortgages in a mood
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