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Daily 2026-04-11
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All metrics are as of the latest market close.
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S&P 500
</td>
<td class="s23">
0.10% ▼
</td>
<td class="s24">
6,818
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="s22">
GOLD
</td>
<td class="s23">
0.89% ▼
</td>
<td class="s24">
$4,775
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="s22">
BITCOIN*
</td>
<td style="font-size:12px;color:#16B166;font-weight:500;font-family:Trispace,monospace;width:30%;vertical-align:baseline;padding:10px 0 0 0">
2.08% ▲
</td>
<td class="s24">
$73,293
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" style="font-size:10px;font-family:Trispace,monospace;color:#7F879C;padding:0">
*24-hour change
</td>
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<td class="s20">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="" width="100%">
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<td align="left" class="s9">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="color:#000000;font-family:Inter,sans-serif;font-size:13px;line-height:22px;table-layout:auto;width:100%;border:none;" width="100%">
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<td class="s22">
FTSE 100
</td>
<td class="s23">
0.07% ▼
</td>
<td class="s24">
10,596
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="s22">
BRENT OIL
</td>
<td class="s23">
1.57% ▼
</td>
<td class="s24">
$94.41
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="s22">
US BONDS*
</td>
<td class="s23">
0.02% ▲
</td>
<td class="s24">
4.31%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" style="font-size:10px;font-family:Trispace,monospace;color:#7F879C;padding:0">
*10-year government yield
</td>
</tr>
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<div style="font-family:Inter,sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-weight:700;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;color:#181c25;">
WALL STREET FEAR GAUGE INDEX
(
<a style="font-weight:400;font-family:Trispace,monospace">
VIX
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)
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<p data-block-key="10zqs">
🌧️ Prediction markets are turning weather into a tradable asset
</p>
<p data-block-key="bvn4m">
📈 Inflation is on the rise around the world
</p>
<p data-block-key="babth">
⚱️ Gold hasn’t been glittering, but this trade might be
</p>
<p data-block-key="1f9co">
<b>
👇 Keep reading to find out more
</b>
</p>
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<mj-raw>
<span class="s18">
👀
</span>
<span class="s19">
Today's headlines
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Over/Under The Weather
</span>
</mj-raw>
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<p data-block-key="aovfe">
<b>
What’s going on here?
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="cvv98">
Weather prediction markets are booming – and investors, scientists, and bettors want to know if they can out-predict the weatherman.
</p>
<p data-block-key="7eru4">
<b>
What does this mean?
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="f2jsh">
People will bet on anything – elections, sports, whether Elon Musk will buy OnlyFans. And
<a>
prediction markets
</a>
, that gray zone between Wall Street and Vegas, are where they do it. Lately, platforms like
<b>
Kalshi
</b>
and
<b>
Polymarket
</b>
have been turning everyone’s go-to small-talk topic into a tradable asset.
</p>
<p data-block-key="9pdfh">
🔺 Weather’s not a massive category – volumes on a
snowstorm in New York last January were just $6 million on Polymarket, a drop in its billion-dollar bucket. But it’s getting attention. Firms that offer tailored forecasts for private clients are starting to compare the market’s wagers against their own models, while climate researchers are investigating whether prediction market bets could beat traditional forecasting.
</p>
<p data-block-key="4a40m">
<b>
Why should I care?
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="6kcjl">
<b>
<i>
The bigger picture:
</i>
</b>
<i>
Only
thing predictable about the weather is…
</i>
</p>
<p data-block-key="b1t57">
Accurate forecasting matters to picnickers and investors alike: heatwaves and cold snaps boost power demand, hurricanes snarl supply chains, and extreme weather drives insurance claims.
</p>
<p data-block-key="eo00k">
Prediction sites won’t replace mathematical modeling – but they might turn weather expectations into a live market signal. See, the odds move not just because of what’s happening, but also because of what people
<i>
think
</i>
is going to happen. Prediction markets distill those stakes into probabilities that investors and businesses could use to gauge risks.
</p>
<p data-block-key="bt83p">
<b>
<i>
For markets:
</i>
</b>
<i>
Severe weather warning.
</i>
</p>
<p data-block-key="1a9k7">
Prediction markets can be fun, but risky: you can lose money fast when you’re up against players with better data. Hey, the folks betting on temperatures and tornadoes might be weather-forecasting tech bros.
</p>
<p data-block-key="bls6m">
⚠️ Plus, the anonymity of these wagers also makes insider trading – illegally using private info to profit before everyone else – easier. One anonymous user bet $72,000 on a US-Iran ceasefire minutes before it was announced, for a $200,000 payout. So it’s dangerous to treat prediction markets as trustworthy signals – even about snowfall in Central Park.
</p>
</div>
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<div style="font-family:Inter,sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;color:#000000;">
You might also like ⇢
<a>
Prediction Markets Are Booming. Here Are The Risks.
</a>
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<span class="s19">
Sponsored by CoinShares
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<h3 data-block-key="2i2xv">
<b>
You don’t need another argument for whether to own crypto – you need a clean way to plug it into your portfolio without guesswork.
</b>
</h3>
<p data-block-key="7pck1">
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2. The higher-octane route that aims to turn crypto’s chaos into extra returns.
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The ETF With A Golden Touch
</span>
</mj-raw>
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<p data-block-key="pr7ai">
Selloffs tend to reveal a lot – fear, uncertainty, shifting sentiment. But now and then, they lay bare something else entirely:
<a>
opportunity
</a>
.
</p>
<p data-block-key="8okbj">
That’s what happened with the recent pullback in gold. The move has
opened up what I think is an attractive entry point into gold mining stocks, which is why I added a
<a>
gold miners ETF
</a>
to the Finimize portfolio two weeks ago.
</p>
<p data-block-key="1ch8i">
At the time, I went with a half-sized position in the
<b>
VanEck Gold Miners ETF
</b>
(or, for non-US investors, the
<b>
VanEck Gold Miners
UCITS ETF
</b>
). And now, I’m
<a>
ready
</a>
to push that to a full-sized position.
</p>
<p data-block-key="7ir53">
That’s today’s Research:
<a>
what’s driving gold, and
why miners are the smartest way to play it
</a>
.
</p>
<p data-block-key="6fevn">
<a>
<b>
Read or listen to the Research here
</b>
</a>
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Russell Burns
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<mj-raw>
<span class="s18">
👀
</span>
<span class="s19">
Today's headlines
</span>
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<mj-raw>
<span class="s33">
Oil Shock Meets Sticker Shock
</span>
</mj-raw>
</div>
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<div class="s30">
<p data-block-key="mrmdd">
<b>
What’s going on here?
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="70sh2">
Fresh data out on Friday showed that US inflation rose at its fastest pace in two years, as the war in Iran started to show through in prices.
</p>
<p data-block-key="elbms">
<b>
What does this mean?
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="8o8fh">
Consumers paid even more for things than the experts had expected – and energy costs were to blame for much of that. Inflation
rose to 3.3% in March, much loftier than February’s 2.4%, as the ripple effects from the conflict in the Middle East pushed the cost of fuel higher. Look at the energy category alone: prices popped by 12.5%.
</p>
<p data-block-key="b0uoa">
▶ Strip out food and energy, though, and things looked a bit calmer – the “core” inflation gauge came in at just 2.6%.
</p>
<p data-block-key="3ghrs">
<b>
Why should I care?
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="b6llg">
<b>
<i>
Bigger picture:
</i>
</b>
<i>
Inflation itself is like a
major export.
</i>
</p>
<p data-block-key="e622p">
Of course, it’s not just a US problem. On Friday, China’s data showed producer prices – what they charge for goods right at the factory gate – rose 0.5% from a year earlier, ending a three-year streak of
<i>
deflation
</i>
(inflation’s more evil twin). But that’s because more expensive oil spills over into factory expenses. Chinese consumer prices, on the other hand, stayed fairly tame in March. But it could be that businesses are swallowing higher
production costs, rather than passing them on to consumers – and that could come back and bite them in the profit margins later on.
</p>
<p data-block-key="2st51">
<b>
<i>
Zooming out:
</i>
</b>
<i>
Europe did try to warn everyone.
</i>
</p>
<p data-block-key="95go4">
Last week, the eurozone was the first out of the gate with a March inflation report, and it gave the world a heads-up. Consumer prices jumped sharply to 2.5%, up from 1.9% the month before. The bloc relies heavily on energy imports from the
Middle East, so it’s especially vulnerable to disruptions there.
</p>
</div>
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You might also like ⇢
<a>
Six Popular Inflation Hedges, And The Ones Most Likely To Work Now
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<mj-raw>
<span class="s18">
✨
</span>
<span class="s19">
Sarah's Digest
</span>
</mj-raw>
</div>
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<tr>
<td align="left" class="s36">
<div class="s30">
📺
<a>
YouTube Is Raising Premium Prices In The US Again
</a>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s5">
<div class="s37">
The latest hike lifts Individual and Family plans, betting subscribers will pay more for ad-free viewing and Music perks as streaming costs keep rising.
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s36">
<div class="s30">
🎬
<a>
Netflix’s Next Growth Engine Looks A Lot Like Advertising
</a>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s5">
<div class="s37">
Analysts think faster ad sales, better targeting, and higher US prices could lift Netflix’s 2026 revenue and margins — with more upside if live and interactive ads catch on.
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s36">
<div class="s30">
🎵
<a>
Ackman’s $64 Billion Universal Music Bid Runs Into Bollore
</a>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s5">
<div class="s37">
Pershing Square’s non-binding offer faces a key hurdle: Bollore’s near-32% stake can block a deal, and analysts doubt he’ll sell or back a US-listed restructure.
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s36">
<div class="s30">
🚀
<a>
SpaceX Starts Fitting Out Its Texas Chip-Packaging Plant
</a>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s5">
<div class="s37">
The Bastrop site is gearing up to package Starlink RF chips in-house, a step toward Musk’s bigger plan to expand SpaceX’s semiconductor footprint in Texas.
</div>
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</tr>
</tbody>
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<td align="left" class="s31">
<div class="s17">
<mj-raw>
<span class="s19">
Finimize Awards
</span>
</mj-raw>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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</td></tr></table>
<![endif]-->
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="s10" role="presentation">
<tbody>
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<td class="s11">
<a target="_blank">
<img alt="Finimize Awards" class="s12" height="auto" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Ffinimize-img.imgix.net%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fchivas-assets.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com%252Fstatic%252Fimages%252Ffinancial_awards_are_broken_brighter.original.png%253Ffit%253Dclip%2526h%253DNone%2526ixlib%253Dpython-3.1.2%2526w%253D768%2526s%253D24cd4f204cd3de54b55af4f6d112a501/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZmaW5pbWl6ZS1pbSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NzU4NjA3NzguMzQ1OTk1fQ:1wBKVm:0QwAlQ16J3QqkJ-AOneKTCR8IOCsM3f1P2Ti2PUrtWo" width="568"/>
</a>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" style="font-size:0px;padding:0;padding-right:0;padding-bottom:16px;padding-left:0;word-break:break-word;">
<div class="s30">
<h3 data-block-key="hyeek">
Financial service awards aren’t usually earned – they’re bought.
</h3>
<p data-block-key="63or8">
Big names – you know the ones – have the money to make sure they end up with the trophies. That’s not fair.
</p>
<p data-block-key="5sbtu">
Help us fix a broken system.
</p>
<p data-block-key="47in9">
Cast your
<a>
vote here
</a>
and decide who's really earned some recognition.
</p>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" style="font-size:0px;padding:16px 0;word-break:break-word;">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="border-collapse:separate;line-height:100%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#204CE9" role="presentation" style="border:1px solid #030303;border-radius:1000rem;cursor:auto;mso-padding-alt:10px 25px;background:#204CE9;" valign="middle">
<a style="display:inline-block;background:#204CE9;color:#ffffff;font-family:Inter,sans-serif;font-size:13px;font-weight:700;line-height:1.2;margin:0;text-decoration:none;text-transform:none;padding:10px 25px;mso-padding-alt:0px;border-radius:1000rem;" target="_blank">
<span class="s7">
Vote here
</span>
</a>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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<td align="left" class="s31">
<div class="s17">
<mj-raw>
<span class="s18">
🖋️
</span>
<span class="s19">
Quote of the day
</span>
</mj-raw>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="s4" role="presentation" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s5">
<div class="s30">
<strong>
"Don't despair. Despair suggests you are in total control and know what is coming. You don't – surrender to events with hope."
</strong>
– Alain de Botton (a British-Swiss philosopher)
</div>
</td>
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<![endif]-->
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<tbody>
<tr>
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="s4" role="presentation" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s31">
<div class="s17">
<mj-raw>
<span class="s18">
🎯
</span>
<span class="s19">
On Our Radar
</span>
</mj-raw>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s29">
<div class="s30">
<p data-block-key="aaghi">
<b>
1. Is BTS still K-pop?
</b>
It’s pop, sure, but some wonder if the Korean megastars are
<a>
losing their identity
</a>
.
</p>
<p data-block-key="7qbd9">
<b>
2. Well, that’s… useful.
</b>
Male octopuses have a
<a>
“mating arm”
</a>
.
</p>
<p data-block-key="6i9ag">
<b>
3. Lunar land grab.
</b>
With Artemis II, the question of
<a>
who owns the moon
</a>
becomes a lot more relevant.
</p>
<p data-block-key="gk5c">
<b>
4. Buzz.
</b>
What happens when
<a>
70,000 bees
</a>
take up residence in your home.
</p>
<p data-block-key="ffg9b">
<b>
5. Focus.
</b>
<a>
I spy
</a>
with my little eye…
</p>
</div>
</td>
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</td>
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<td align="left" class="s5">
<div class="s30">
Stay classy, Sarah 😉 This issue of the Daily Brief was curated by
<a style="color:inherit;font-weight:inherit">
Reda
</a>
and
<a style="color:inherit;font-weight:inherit">
Linda
</a>
. Got an idea? A question?
<a>
Get in touch
</a>
.
</div>
</td>
</tr>
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<![endif]-->
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<![endif]-->
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<tr>
<td align="left" class="s31">
<div class="s17">
<mj-raw>
<span class="s18">
💌
</span>
<span class="s19">
THAT WAS GREAT FOR US... HOW WAS IT FOR YOU?
</span>
</mj-raw>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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<![endif]-->
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<![endif]-->
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<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="center" class="s38">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="s39" role="presentation">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#f8f9ff" class="s40" role="presentation" valign="middle">
<a class="s41" target="_blank">
<span aria-hidden="true" role="img">
🔥
</span>
Hot stuff
</a>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<!--[if mso | IE]>
</td><td class="" style="vertical-align:top;width:189.33333333333337px;">
<![endif]-->
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="s4" role="presentation" width="100%">
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<td align="center" class="s38">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="s39" role="presentation">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#f8f9ff" class="s40" role="presentation" valign="middle">
<a class="s41" target="_blank">
<span aria-hidden="true" role="img">
👍
</span>
Just alright
</a>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</td>
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</tbody>
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</div>
<!--[if mso | IE]>
</td><td class="" style="vertical-align:top;width:189.33333333333337px;">
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<td align="center" bgcolor="#f8f9ff" class="s40" role="presentation" valign="middle">
<a class="s41" target="_blank">
<span aria-hidden="true" role="img">
😒
</span>
...Meh
</a>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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</div>
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