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No country for rate cuts
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Plus: Another inflation warning sign.
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Thursday, March 19, 2026
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Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images
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Fed keeps interest rates steady as Iran war sends oil prices higher
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The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the second consecutive meeting in which monetary policymakers left rates unchanged.
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<div>
The decision by the Federal Open Market Committee came as the central bank weighs conflicting pressures: inflation that has run above its 2% target for five years and is now being
pushed higher by energy costs from the Iran war, alongside a labor market that has sent mixed signals, with a relatively strong January jobs report followed by a weaker February.
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The rate decision follows a wholesale inflation reading that came in well above forecasts, prompting futures markets to move any expected rate cut to December at the earliest. Odds of a reduction at the December meeting fell to about 60%. The shift is significant: As recently as before Feb. 28, markets had fully priced in rate reductions at the
June and September meetings. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect officials to pencil in two quarter-point rate cuts for 2026, up from the single cut projected in December.
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None of the recently released inflation data released so far captures price increases tied to the war, which has snarled the critical Strait of Hormuz and rattled global energy markets.
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Read more on Quartz
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Will the Fed hold rates steady all year?
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Yes, inflation is too sticky
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<!--[if mso]><a href="https://www.ne16.com/t/10455545/222404108/9396488/1/1009235/?abb9e380=NGYzZmQyODYtMmZhOS00YzdjLWFkYzktMzQyOGNhZmI3ZDBl&f5d63f87=REIlMjAwMy0xOQ&x=e933854e" target="_blank"
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No, we'll get at least one cut
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<!--[if mso]><a href="https://www.ne16.com/t/10455545/222404108/9396489/1/1009235/?abb9e380=NGYzZmQyODYtMmZhOS00YzdjLWFkYzktMzQyOGNhZmI3ZDBl&f5d63f87=REIlMjAwMy0xOQ&x=e6d5c781" target="_blank"
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Forget cuts. We're getting a rate hike
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<!--[if mso]><a href="https://www.ne16.com/t/10455545/222404108/9396490/1/1009235/?abb9e380=NGYzZmQyODYtMmZhOS00YzdjLWFkYzktMzQyOGNhZmI3ZDBl&f5d63f87=REIlMjAwMy0xOQ&x=9096ee72"
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Oil hits $108 a barrel as Israel attacks Iranian energy sites.
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Iran pledged to retaliate by striking energy infrastructure in neighboring countries after Israeli strikes hit Iran's largest gas processing complex in Bushehr Province.
Citi warns prices could hit $150 if disruptions continue.
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<a data-linktext="Trump waives an obscure law to slow soaring gas prices." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#105C8E;" target="_blank">
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President Donald Trump has issued a temporary 60-day
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The e-commerce giant plans to slash the number of packages it ships
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Bob Iger officially steps down as Disney CEO.
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Josh D'Amaro, the longtime head of Disney's theme parks, takes over as Iger transitions into a senior advisor position.
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Producer prices rose 0.7% in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — more than double the 0.3% increase economists had forecast and the fastest monthly gain since August 2023. On a
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1 week, 4 days ago - hi@e.qz.com
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