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   US data and what to know for the week ahead. |
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               👋 Hi Sarah. Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead and what you might've missed last week.
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               Ohhh K
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               Investors are about to get an up-close look at some key data and find out what kind of shape the US economy’s in.
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                        🔍 The focus this week: The shape of the US economy
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6az05" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        On Friday, we’ll see how the world’s biggest economy finished 2025, when its fourth-quarter growth figures land.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="a393i" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        🔻 The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         GDPNow
                        </a>
                        model, which updates in real time as new indicators roll in, estimates that growth clocked in at a punchy 3.7% annualized pace. That’d be slower than the previous quarter’s 4.4% pace, but still plenty healthy.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="1qte4" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        🔻 Wall Street economists aren’t quite buying it. They’re expecting a more sluggish 2.5%. And that caution isn’t totally unfounded. Retail sales, for example, unexpectedly stalled in December, hinting that consumers – who power two-thirds of the US economy – had eased off their credit cards as the year closed.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="3170m" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        ► But the bigger question here isn’t how much Americans are spending – it’s
                        <i>
                         how many of them
                        </i>
                        are shopping at all. Stock market gains have padded wealthier households’ portfolios, giving them the confidence to keep traveling, dining out, and splurging. But the majority of Americans, who rely more on wage growth than investment gains, don’t have that cushion.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="7jq24" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        ► That disconnect is why talk about a “K-shaped economy” has grown louder. The term refers to an economy where the wealthy and invested are watching their financial trajectory rise, while everyone else sees theirs fall. It’s not just inequality in a general sense, but a divergence that gets worse over time – even when the economic data suggests that things are fine.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="77dsj" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <b>
                         📊
                        </b>
                        The data backs this up. The richest 10% of Americans now account for 50% of all US consumer spending – the highest share in records going back to 1989 and well above the 37% seen three decades ago. On the flip side, lower-income households have been forced to pull back on basics, work more, and juggle steeper borrowing costs. They’re also increasingly falling behind on their debts. Delinquency rates across mortgages, credit cards, and other household loans, for example, rose to 4.8% last quarter, the highest level since 2017, with lower-income and younger borrowers falling behind the fastest.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="7fg5e" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
                        That matters because a K-shaped setup changes how the economy behaves. Growth leans on a wealthy few, making it more fragile. And if asset prices slip, spending can fall fast, risking a nasty string of consequences.
                       </p>
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                        📅 On the calendar
                       </p>
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                         <b>
                          Monday:
                         </b>
                         Japan economic growth (Q4). US markets are closed for George Washington's birthday. China’s markets are closed all week for the Chinese New Year holiday.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="b098p" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Tuesday:
                         </b>
                         UK labor market report (December), eurozone economic sentiment (February).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         Medtronic, Palo Alto Networks.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="blr9c" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Wednesday:
                         </b>
                         Japan trade balance (January), UK inflation (January), US durable goods orders (December), US industrial production (January).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         Booking Holdings.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="7tcan" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Thursday:
                         </b>
                         US trade balance (December), eurozone consumer confidence (February).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         Deere, Walmart, Newmont.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="bb9si" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0;">
                         <b>
                          Friday:
                         </b>
                         Japan inflation (January), Japan PMIs (February), UK retail sales (January), eurozone PMIs (February), UK PMIs (February), US economic growth (Q4), US personal income and outlays (December), US PMIs (February).
                        </li>
                       </ul>
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                        👀 What you might’ve missed last week
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                         🌎 The US
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                        The US economy delivered a surprise start to the year, adding 130,000 jobs in January – nearly double forecasts – while unemployment dipped to 4.3%, and wages rose faster than expected. The report was delayed by a few days, thanks to a partial government shutdown that had investors squinting at patchy indicators in the meantime. But its eventual release suggested that the job market might be steadier than feared. Then again, it might not be: big downward revisions showed just 181,000 new jobs were added in all of 2025 – the weakest non-recession year since 2003.
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                         🌏 Asia
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                        TSMC’s January sales jumped 37% from a year earlier – flattered a bit by 2025’s Lunar New Year lull. (The holiday lands in February this time). Still, the trend is upward, and that bodes well for the contract chipmaker’s ability to deliver the roughly 30% growth it’s aiming for in 2026. Demand for advanced AI data center chips, mostly from Nvidia and AMD, fueled the bulk of the gain. To keep pace – and stay on course for that full‑year goal – the firm plans to spend up to $56 billion on expanding its capacity this year.
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                        Japan’s prime minister nailed down a rare two-thirds supermajority, giving the government unusual freedom to push through bigger spending, bolster stronger support for tech and defense, and deliver long-promised reforms. Investors took note: the Nikkei 225 hit a record high, while government bond prices fell as traders braced for heavier borrowing. The bigger twist could come next: if higher Japanese bond yields lure domestic investors home, money could flow out of debt markets elsewhere, pushing borrowing costs up worldwide.
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