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👋 Hi Sarah. Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead and what you might've missed last week.
</p>
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A Very British Problem
</h3>
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The UK government’s set to release a new national budget this week that could annoy literally everyone – markets included.
</p>
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<img alt="A Very British Problem" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Ffinimize-img.imgix.net%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fchivas-assets.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com%252Fstatic%252Fimages%252FWeekly-241125-VeryBritishProblem.original.jpg%253Ffit%253Dclip%2526h%253DNone%2526ixlib%253Dpython-3.1.2%2526w%253D768%2526s%253D148094f7cba65347659f6dd6d30298ae/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZmaW5pbWl6ZS1pbSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjM5MzkwMTUuMDY0NjQyMn0:1vNJ7H:HlXFhwwWPy1kECtxLzrd4rfg1k6DuatgtV5xFTXbfC8" width="100%"/>
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🔍 The focus this week: The UK’s finances.
</p>
<p data-block-key="6az05" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
<b>
Sure, Brits are known to keep calm, carry on, and all that.
</b>
But no one’s saying that’s going to be easy this week. The UK budget drops on Wednesday and the big question is just how painful the tax hikes will be.
</p>
<p data-block-key="8e8fq" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
<b>
Higher taxes are coming.
</b>
The British government needs to raise £30 billion ($39 billion) to plug a hole in its finances. The issue is, the more the taxman takes, the less folks have in their wallets – and that means less money flowing into the economy. The stock market’s wise to that, so already, domestically focused and growth-sensitive shares have been underperforming.
</p>
<p data-block-key="2toct" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
<b>
UK stock valuations are the cheapest among developed markets, but for a reason:
</b>
earnings growth’s been ho-hum, and the economic outlook, dire. A growth agenda in the budget – with things like tax incentives to encourage investment and boost productivity – could puff those valuations up a bit, but no one’s holding their breath.
</p>
<p data-block-key="d206f" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
<b>
Foreign exchange, or FX, traders are gearing up for fireworks, though
</b>
: one-week options on the UK pound have jumped to multi-month highs. But the real drama could come from the bond market. The reaction of British government bonds, or “gilts”, will tell you whether the market approves of the government’s budget and outlook. If there’s a selloff, the answer is no. And that could damage investor confidence all over again.
</p>
<p data-block-key="4v40f" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
<b>
And the UK’s not the only country dealing with budget drama.
</b>
The Japanese yen just slumped under the weight of a new $135 billion support package, aimed at boosting consumer spending. And the country’s long-term bond yields just hit highs not seen in 30 years. And that’s something to keep an eye on. After all, higher Japanese bond yields have a habit of knocking global asset prices around.
</p>
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📅 On the calendar
</p>
<ul style="padding: 0; margin: 0; list-style-type: disc; margin-left: 19px;">
<li data-block-key="gn5an" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Monday:
</b>
All quiet on the data front.
<b>
Earnings
</b>
: Zoom.
</li>
<li data-block-key="bu6f1" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Tuesday:
</b>
US consumer confidence (November).
<b>
Earnings:
</b>
HP.
</li>
<li data-block-key="d2df4" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Wednesday:
</b>
US economic growth (third quarter), US personal income (October).
<b>
Earnings:
</b>
Deere.
</li>
<li data-block-key="5pbmk" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Thursday:
</b>
US markets closed for pumpkin pie and football. European Central Bank minutes, Japan jobs (October), Japan industrial production (October), Japan retail sales (October).
</li>
<li data-block-key="90n2d" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0;">
<b>
Friday:
</b>
US markets close early. Walk off the pie.
</li>
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<a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
<h4 style="font-family: 'Poppins', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; font-weight: 700; line-height: 1.25; color: #171E27; color: rgba(23, 30, 39, 1); margin-bottom: 0; font-size: 20px; font-family: 'Poppins', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0;">
<img alt="State Street Investment Management at Modern Investor Summit" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Ffinimize-img.imgix.net%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fchivas-assets.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com%252Fstatic%252Fimages%252FMIS25-SpeakerAnnouncement-1920x1080-StateStreet.original.png%253Ffit%253Dclip%2526h%253DNone%2526ixlib%253Dpython-3.1.2%2526w%253D768%2526s%253D736d4aa81757036d0d57e5c4cfe03cfe/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZmaW5pbWl6ZS1pbSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjM5MzkwMTUuMDY0ODAwM30:1vNJ7H:jsGrOTFKTSdVkcIUg5oLfGAPKmcQIppZq6VkLinQFeU" width="100%"/>
</h4>
</a>
<h4 data-block-key="rab22" style="font-family: 'Poppins', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; font-weight: 700; line-height: 1.25; margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 24px; color: #171E27; color: rgba(23, 30, 39, 1); font-size: 20px; font-family: 'Poppins', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
If you want an idea of what might happen for you and your portfolio next year, you have two options.
</b>
</h4>
<p data-block-key="3oip8" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
1: Fly to Bali, see a psychic, and cement the predictions in some sort of fire ceremony.
</p>
<p data-block-key="b8f7" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
2: Come to our
<a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
Modern Investor Summit
</a>
, join Mike Arone’s session, and find out what he – State Street Investment Management’s chief investment strategist, with 31 years of experience in the field – predicts.
</p>
<p data-block-key="a9bar" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
<a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
We’ll see you there
</a>
. Our Summit, that is.
</p>
<p data-block-key="9n0vc" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
(Bali, too, if you’re buying the flights.)
</p>
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👀 What you might’ve missed last week
</p>
<p data-block-key="6z208" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
🌐
<b>
The World
<br/>
<br/>
</b>
Crypto’s rough patch got even worse. Bitcoin fell below $82,000, putting it on track for its worst month since its 2022 meltdown. Ether, meanwhile, slipped below $2,700, and smaller tokens followed suit. That left the total crypto market value below $3 trillion for the first time since April. But this asset class has a volatile history: it’s not the first time it’s experienced a sharp drawdown – and there’s no way it’ll be the last.
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🌎 The US
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Nvidia’s quarterly results sailed above investors’ lofty expectations. Revenue hit a record $57 billion – up 62% from the same time last year. The firm also revised its forecast for the current quarter up $3 billion to $65 billion, with demand for its powerful Blackwell chips still “off the charts”.
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Warren Buffett made a $4.3 billion bet on AI, buying a hefty stake in Alphabet and making it Berkshire Hathaway’s tenth-biggest holding. The pick says a lot about Alphabet’s recent momentum – with booming cloud revenue, a rising AI model, and big paper gains from its Anthropic investment.
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🌏
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Asia
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Tensions between China and Japan got a little more heated after Japan’s new prime minister hinted that the country would intervene in any conflict along the Taiwan Strait. China retaliated by suspending seafood imports, halting approvals for new films, and warning its citizens not to travel to Japan.
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13 hours ago - hello@finimize.com
And what to know for the investing week ahead | 👋 Hi Sarah. Here’s what you need to know for the ...