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   The World: A second China shock
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              By
              <a class="css-nanfcg" style="-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;border-bottom:1px solid #ccc;color:inherit">
               Katrin Bennhold
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          Good morning, world!
         </span>
         <span>
          When President Trump imposed steep tariffs on China this year, he said they were a response to the deindustrialization of America that had accompanied large-scale outsourcing to China — what some have called the “China shock.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Trump’s tariffs did prompt Chinese exports to the United States to fall by nearly 20 percent. Those exports, and more, are now going elsewhere in the world. This week, China’s trade surplus — the excess of exports to imports — officially surpassed $1 trillion, a level no country has ever reached.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Today my colleague Alexandra Stevenson, our Shanghai bureau chief, writes about the second China shock, and what that could mean for the developing countries experiencing it this time around.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Also:
         </span>
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                Hamas “still standing” in Gaza
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                A rejection of Russia’s demands
               </span>
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Ukraine’s recruitment ads
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            <img alt="Three workers on a car assembly line in a factory. " class="css-xsf469" height="500" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F12%252F09%252Fmultimedia%252F09-int-theworld-lede-vcqp%252F09-int-theworld-lede-vcqp-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjUyNTgyNDYuNTg5MDQ3N30:1vSqJC:QM-Hcl7yFHciGG9zsZrLZ4cuBDNAb-pek-YCOvB33mg" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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             <span class="css-1hnedf7" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
              A Geely manufacturing plant in Hangzhou, China.
             </span>
             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
              Chang W. Lee/The New York Times
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        <h2 style="color:#000;font:700 24px/31px nyt-cheltenham,georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          The second China shock
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="display:block;color:#333;font:400 18.5px/26px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          By Alexandra Stevenson
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Two decades ago, the Western world experienced what has come to be known as the “China shock.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Companies in the United States and Europe outsourced manufacturing to China until it became, in effect, their factory floor. China began exporting toys, clothes, gadgets and cars to the developed world at such a pace that it helped bring about the collapse of entire industries. Factories shut down. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of jobs were lost. Politically, the impact is still reverberating.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          We’re now starting to see a second China shock play out, one that looks different. This time, barred from the U.S. market by tariffs, and unable to sell enough to consumers at home, China is redirecting more of its exports to developing countries. It’s also setting up its own factories in some of these countries.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But if the first China shock was largely invited by the West — even if some policymakers have come to regret the consequences — this one is taking place in countries that have less control over how it unfolds. Compared with the developed world, these countries are also more dependent on manufacturing to keep their economies growing.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          And so the social consequences of the second China shock around the world are likely to be as profound as the first in the West. We’re starting to get a glimpse of what they might look like.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700">
          A manufacturing hegemon
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          More than 300,000 people in Indonesia’s garment factories and textile mills have lost their jobs to Chinese imports over the past two years, by one estimate.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          That’s when cheaper Chinese-made clothes and fabrics began streaming into the country. When one garment factory, in the city of Solo,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          shut down suddenly in March
         </a>
         <span>
          , 10,000 people were out of a job almost overnight.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Local businesses in Thailand have also been hurt. The central bank recently warned about the “flooding of Chinese exports” into Thailand and Southeast Asia, saying that the pressure had “become more severe due to China’s manufacturing overcapacity.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          In Africa, imports from China hit $60 billion in September, already surpassing the figure for the full year in 2024.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Official data released on Monday showed what insiders already knew: China this year has already run an annual trade surplus with the world
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          exceeding $1 trillion
         </a>
         <span>
          for the first time.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “China’s exports have been growing three times faster than global trade,” said Brad Setser, an economist at the Council on Foreign Relations. That kind of growth can’t happen without factories elsewhere closing down, he said.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          This time around, China isn’t exporting just cheap goods. It’s also exporting the factories themselves, largely to get around Trump’s tariffs, which are particularly high on products made in China.
         </span>
        </p>
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            <img alt="Two men working on an armchair in a factory." class="css-xsf469" height="500" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F11%252F11%252Fmultimedia%252F09-int-theworld-lede2-2%252F09-int-theworld-lede2-2-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjUyNTgyNDYuNTg5MTY4fQ:1vSqJC:id49f_Dq9VFrcJ0VBdUBDnAeTQpAuAha0c5wYuSsfJo" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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            <span class="css-1wuwhda" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:left">
             <span class="css-1hnedf7" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
              A furniture factory in Vietnam.
             </span>
             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
              Linh Pham for The New York Times
             </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          This part has had its upsides for local economies. It’s largely worked out well so far in Vietnam, in part because many of the industries that moved, like
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          footwear
         </a>
         <span>
          and
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          furniture
         </a>
         <span>
          , are labor intensive and need local workers.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But Malaysia is a case study in the perils of letting Chinese manufacturing become too dominant. Malaysia’s fledging local solar industry
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          was displaced by Chinese companies
         </a>
         <span>
          that built huge factories, employing tens of thousands of people.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Then the United States set up tariffs taking direct aim at Chinese solar exports coming via Southeast Asia. The Chinese companies were mothballed, and today, Malaysia’s solar industry is in ruins.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700">
          Unemployment and unrest
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Many of the countries where China is sending more of its exports are going through a steep slowdown in domestic manufacturing.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          They also have populations that skew young.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          These dynamics may already be contributing to tension that has bubbled up in places like Indonesia, where young protesters have expressed frustration over a lack of opportunities.
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             <span class="css-1hnedf7" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
              Protesters outside of parliament in Jakarta, Indonesia, in September.
             </span>
             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
              Ulet Ifansasti for The New York Times
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “There is definitely a risk that if Chinese exports keep flooding in, you might see more and more protests,” Priyanka Kishore, an economist in Singapore, said.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          This makes for a volatile combination with the anti-Chinese sentiment that lurks in Southeast Asia, where businesses run by ethnic Chinese hold much of the wealth. Thousands of angry workers burned foreign-owned factories in Vietnam in 2014 in anger over China’s attempts to control the South China Sea. In Indonesia, anti-Chinese riots broke out during the Asian financial crisis in 1998.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          More than two decades ago, the West welcomed the efficiency of China’s manufacturing machine, whose cheap labor enriched its businesses for years. It’s been grappling with the social and political repercussions ever since.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          There’s a lesson there for countries in Southeast Asia and elsewhere. Unlike the West, the countries bearing the brunt of the second China shock may not have asked for this. But they’re going to need to brace for impact anyway.
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             <span class="css-1hnedf7" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
              Hamas fighters near Khan Younis, Gaza, in February.
             </span>
             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
              Saher Alghorra for The New York Times
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          Hamas ‘still standing’ in Gaza
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          Since Israeli forces withdrew from parts of Gaza in October under a cease-fire deal, Hamas has moved quickly, sending its police forces out on the streets again.
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          Hamas now controls less than half of the territory in Gaza, with the rest occupied by Israel. Yet the militant group has managed to reassert its power. “It’s still standing,” said a former senior official in the Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic intelligence agency.
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          This swift regrouping presents a formidable obstacle
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          to the U.S. plan to rebuild a Gaza free of Hamas.
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              A temporary shelter in Thailand’s Buriram province yesterday.
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             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
              Sarot Meksophawannakul/Thai News Pix, via Agence France-Presse – Getty Images
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          At least five people were killed and hundreds of thousands were displaced in a new wave of border violence between Thailand and Cambodia.
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          Thai fighter jets bombed Cambodian targets yesterday
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          . The Thai military said the airstrikes were in response to an attack by Cambodia that killed at least one Thai soldier and injured eight others earlier in the day. The hostilities were a reminder of how intractable the rift between Cambodia and Thailand is.
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                since rebels
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                Paramount
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                to
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                of Ukraine rejected Russia’s demands for territorial concessions
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                as peace talks faltered
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                Attacks
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                on a kindergarten and hospital
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                in Sudan
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                killed 114 people
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                prison sentences to four Russian soldiers
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                for the
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                murder of an American man
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                who had worked as a propagandist for Moscow.
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                Armed men stole more than a dozen works
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                of art,
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              Kentaro Takahashi for The New York Times
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          Shichi-Go-San
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          — or 7-5-3 —
         </span>
         <span>
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          traditionally celebrates children reaching those milestone ages. As Japan’s fertility rate has plunged, shrines have begun honoring four-legged companions, like the three shown above. “People have shifted from having children to having pets,” one shrine visitor said.
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             MORNING READ
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             <img alt="A recruitment ad and Constant Méheut walking in the street and speaking to the camera. " class="css-xsf469" height="891" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F12%252F08%252Fmultimedia%252F09-int-theworld-rv%252F09-int-theworld-rv-jumbo.gif/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjUyNTgyNDYuNTkwNTg0fQ:1vSqJC:RpFUjRqfDqXOWA_roesfG-grWuly5MayAwv1_W7nhnE" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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             <span class="css-1hnedf7" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
              Click to watch the video.
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             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
              The New York Times
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          Early in the war with Russia,
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          My colleague Constant Méheut explains
         </span>
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          in the video above
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         <span>
          how the ads have evolved to reflect the country’s shifting moods over four years of war.
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             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:0">
              Joao Silva/The New York Times
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          Reweaving the fashion scene in South Africa
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          Laduma Ngxokolo created the luxury knitwear label MaXhosa Africa to bring traditional Xhosa patterns and motifs into the mainstream. Along the way, he disrupted the South African fashion scene, where most designers focus on Western-style clothing, and won fans including Michelle Obama and Beyoncé.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Ngxokolo’s commitment to South Africa and the Xhosa culture has guided his career. “We believe that our job is not to sell and that our job is to become cultural advocates,” he said.
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:700">
          Read more
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          Zaynab Issa’s smashed beef kebab with cucumber yogurt is
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            <img alt="Young men in black shirts and shorts playing basketball." class="css-xsf469" height="333" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F12%252F09%252Fmultimedia%252F09-int-theworld-quiz-fcvt%252F09-int-theworld-quiz-fcvt-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjUyNTgyNDYuNTkwOTQyNH0:1vSqJC:hxe2kgwUPVqfnvF4G2cAEySVRrHHIctNTE5DtKb1hNk" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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              Arlette Bashizi for The New York Times
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                Kumasi, Ghana
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