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   Plus, behind Nebius, Oracle, Alibaba, and Klarna’s rallies |
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               👋 Hi Sarah. Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead and what you might've missed last week.
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               At Any Rate…
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               Traders are almost certain the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at its next meeting… But the jury’s out on what will happen afterwards.
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                        🔍 The focus this week: Investors’ certainty expires after this month.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6az05" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <b>
                         The Fed’s chairman opened the door for a September rate cut a few weeks back.
                        </b>
                        At the time, plenty of folks dismissed it as a nod to the US president’s (loud) calls for easier policy. But the stats have supported the Fed’s premonition: inflation stayed steady (even with tariffs in play), while the labor market weakened. Remember, the Fed’s tasked with keeping inflation steady and employment to the max – and the latter is posing a bigger risk, at least for now.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="d07jd" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <b>
                         That suggests rate cuts.
                        </b>
                        And investors agree: they’re pricing in a more than 90% chance of a 25 basis point cut next week – and two more before the year’s out. Still, today’s near-certainty could be tomorrow’s mispricing.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="8nbtj" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        See, tariffs or an economic uptick could send prices higher, or geopolitics could rattle supply chains and energy markets. That could persuade the Fed to avoid any further rate cuts after September. Or, on the flip side, a bigger-than-feared economic lag could force the Fed to cut
                        <i>
                         more
                        </i>
                        aggressively.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="fn6ov" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <b>
                         Traders aren’t just torn about the following rate cuts.
                        </b>
                        They’re split between two opposing views of the economy, too. Some investors believe the worst is over and the economy’s on the road to recovery. Their proof points: companies improving their outlooks, a wider spread of fortunes across both small and big companies, resilient corporate balance sheets, and improving investor sentiment. On top of that, there’s the prospect of AI-fueled productivity and the potential for cheaper borrowing costs.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="cslhh" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        On the contrary, some traders are taking weak jobs data, stretched consumers, eye-watering stock valuations, and a soft housing market as warning signs. (Historically, they
                        <i>
                         have
                        </i>
                        been reliable indicators of economic slowdowns.) Add in inflationary risks from tariffs and government policies, and they’re skeptical of the Fed’s ability to cushion a downturn.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="dfh01" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
                        <b>
                         The Fed’s next move could influence the short-term mood, but it won’t settle the bigger debate.
                        </b>
                        Just remember this: rate cuts are always good for stocks
                        <i>
                         on paper
                        </i>
                        – but markets will only rally if economic growth and company earnings hold up. History shows that when cuts are designed to prevent a recession, the resulting returns are worse than in a steadier climate. So watch the data, stay flexible, and remember that a rate cut would be one step in a much bigger cycle.
                       </p>
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                    <b>
                     Insure your bitcoin like it’s your most valuable asset – because it probably is
                    </b>
                   </h4>
                   <p data-block-key="d4kvm" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
                    Your bitcoin stack could well be worth more than your car, your furniture… maybe even your house. And
                    <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                     life insurance that’s priced in bitcoin could help you protect it
                    </a>
                    , pass it on, and even unlock liquidity when you need it – all without selling a single sat. So spend 30 minutes with us and Meanwhile’s Jason Leibowitz to find out how.
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                       <p class="content-box-header mb-4" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; font-weight: 900; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        📅 On the calendar
                       </p>
                       <ul style="padding: 0; margin: 0; list-style-type: disc; margin-left: 19px;">
                        <li data-block-key="gn5an" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Monday:
                         </b>
                         China industrial production (August), China retail sales (August).
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="1hfis" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Tuesday:
                         </b>
                         UK unemployment rate (July), Germany economic sentiment (September), US retail sales (August).
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="efksl" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Wednesday:
                         </b>
                         US interest rates decision, UK inflation (August), US housing starts and building permits (August), Canada interest rates decision.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="8i382" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Thursday:
                         </b>
                         UK interest rate decision.
                         <b>
                          Earnings
                         </b>
                         : FedEx.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="7r1m1" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0;">
                         <b>
                          Friday:
                         </b>
                         Japan inflation (August), Japan interest rate decision, UK retail sales (August).
                        </li>
                       </ul>
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                      <div style="font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;;font-size:13px;line-height:1;text-align:left;color:#000000;">
                       <p class="content-box-header mb-4" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; font-weight: 900; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        👀 What you might’ve missed last week
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6z208" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        🇺🇲
                        <b>
                         The US
                        </b>
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="5nahl" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="880ns" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Headline US inflation was pretty much as expected, while producer prices – which influence the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge – dipped. Jobs data wasn’t quite as easy reading: August’s hiring barely budged, unemployment claims hit a four-year high, and previous payrolls were revised downward.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="3kmp7" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Meanwhile, Oracle unveiled strong orders for AI and cloud solutions, with massive contracts from major tech firms. (There’s also a rumored $300 billion deal with OpenAI.) The stock rallied up to 40% as a result. Some investors are wary of the firm’s stretched valuation, mind you, as well as its plans to spend a
                        <i>
                         ton
                        </i>
                        of cash in the next few years.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="d5pus" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Klarna had its long-anticipated initial public offering (IPO) after years of stuttering and false starts. The stock was priced at $40, but rose as high as 30% above the IPO price. They then settled around 15% higher than the initial price by the end of day one. That valued the fintech at just under $20 billion – and while that’s well below its 2021 peak, the listing was widely seen as a successful re-entry to the public eye.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="5llb4" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="1qh2a" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        🇪🇺
                        <b>
                         Europe
                        </b>
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="11kv8" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="fjii4" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        The European Central Bank has made
                        <i>
                         eight
                        </i>
                        rate trims since last June. However, Europe’s central bank left rates unchanged for a second straight meeting, with the president saying risks are now “more balanced” and policy is “in a good place”. Markets got the message: investors are now betting the cuts are finished.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="aellh" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="eeu4" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Dutch AI infrastructure firm Nebius announced a five-year deal with Microsoft, which could stretch to $19.4 billion. Investors pushed the stock up around 50% after the news, continuing a rally that’s already more than doubled the shares’ value this year. Nebius also plans to raise $3 billion for new data centers, supporting its spot in the AI infrastructure ranks. (Psst: our analyst Russell
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         profiled this stock
                        </a>
                        over a month ago).
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="8i4ir" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="1nj48" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <b>
                         🇬🇧 The UK
                        </b>
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="em932" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="57ijd" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        UK households’ inflation expectations jumped to their highest in two years. Brits are bracing for price rises of 3.6% over the next year and 3.8% in five years – even though the economy stalled in July. The combination of resilient inflation and fading economic growth has sparked “stagflation” fears. Now, the Bank of England is in a bind. Cut rates too far, and it could fuel inflation. Keep policy too tight, and it risks choking an already fragile economy.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="b9m88" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="885f3" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <b>
                         🇨🇳 China
                        </b>
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="2aceo" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="bts1i" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
                        Alibaba shares jumped more than 10% this week, extending this year’s 80% rally in 2025. The company raised $3.2 billion through a convertible bond (a sort of stock-bond hybrid) due 2032. Most of the proceeds will fund what it calls China’s biggest AI cloud buildout, with the rest supporting international stores and e-commerce. Seemingly, Alibaba’s AI ambitions were enough to offset investors’ concerns about its core retail business, which is still weighing on profit margins.
                       </p>
                      </div>
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