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   Trump’s big bet in Argentina
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   The winners and losers from a bailout
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              <strong style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               The winners and losers from a bailout
              </strong>
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              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               For Javier Milei, it’s a good thing he
married rich.
              </span>
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              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               The Argentine leader’s political marriage to President Donald Trump has paid off with a major American bailout of his imperiled libertarian-minded reforms. It’s an extraordinary show of U.S. financial firepower for a country stuck in chronic economic crisis and long shunned by many foreign investors.
              </span>
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              <br/>
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              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other Trump administration officials have signaled staunch support for Milei ahead of Argentina’s national legislative elections on Oct. 26. The rescue package is poised to consist mainly of a $20 billion swap line that operates similarly to credit. The Trump administration, though, hasn’t closed off the possibility of doing even more, such as dipping into the Treasury's exchange stabilization fund to 
fortify an embattled Argentine peso.
              </span>
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              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Bessent has doubled down and signaled Treasury’s willingness to do what’s necessary to steady an unruly economy. At the moment, the American financial lifeline doesn’t appear to have any strings attached. Bessent, though, emphasized in
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="a CNBC interview" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               a CNBC interview
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              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               on Thursday that the administration is “giving them a swap line, we’re not putting money into Argentina.”
              </span>
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              <br/>
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              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               The U.S. hasn’t attempted a financial rescue of this scale to a foreign government since it
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               extended a $20 billion loan
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              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               to prevent a Mexican default three decades ago. Yet Trump’s remarkable show of support is a fresh demonstration of
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               his willingness to pick winners and losers
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              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               — not just in corporate America, but among nations as well, with Argentina taking outsized importance among U.S. allies.
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              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               “Argentina’s economy is important to a handful of hedge fund investors and I suppose a few international wine negociants,” Peter Harrell, a White House 
economist in the Biden administration, told me. “And of course to the people of Argentina. But I don’t see any systemic risk here.”
              </span>
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              <span style="color:#9B9B9B">
               Trump and Milei at the United Nations General Assembly in New York. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
              </span>
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              <strong style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Milei meets MAGA
              </strong>
             </h2>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Milei and his MAGA-friendly government are the biggest winners by far. He has effusively praised Trump and taken cues from him, unlike most other heads of state. The Argentine president was
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               the first foreign
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               leader to meet Trump after his election victory. Milei also attended Trump’s inauguration and the
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               pair met
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               at the Conservative Political Action Conference in February. Now Milei has landed his first White House visit with Trump on Oct. 14,
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               per the
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Argentine government.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Milei earned many admirers on the right
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               for undertaking a blitz
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               of free-market reforms. Those included slashing government subsidies and regulations, in addition to thinning public sector ranks by 50,000 employees. In return, Trump has referred to Milei as his “favorite president” and offered an endorsement for his re-election.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               A Truth Social post from Trump is certainly prized currency in Republican politics. But it won’t carry the same value among voters in Buenos Aires and in neighboring provinces.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Those voters strongly rebuffed Milei’s party in Buenos Aires 
provincial elections in early September. It unnerved investors who sharply sold off the Argentine peso in tandem with government bonds, setting off a familiar stretch of volatility in the country’s financial markets. The Argentine central bank had to embark on a $1 billion spending spree over three days to prop up the peso, depleting scarce foreign currency reserves in the process.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               News of the U.S. bailout prompted a 10% rally for the peso. But that boost might be short-lived since the currency once again slumped this week, underscoring the unpredictable cycle that the U.S. is stepping into.
               <span class="ql-cursor">
                
               </span>
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Investors prefer Milei over his
Peronist-led opposition, since they’re fearful of a restoration of the unrestrained spending policies that contributed to Argentina’s chaotic economy. Argentina is
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               rich in
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               strategic resources 
like lithium, holding the world’s third-largest reserves, in addition to shale oil and copper. Despite that enormous natural resource wealth, foreign investment
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               has been slow
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               to ramp up even under Milei.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               “Argentine assets are far more valuable with Milei in power than under Peronist or Kirchnerist leadership,” said Taylor Selden, a U.S. investor living in Buenos Aires. “A $100 asset in a normal country might be worth $40–50 under the Peronists and
closer to $20 under hard-left Kirchnerists.”
              </span>
             </p>
             <h2 style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly;Margin:0;line-height:1.8;font-family:Arial;font-size:20px;color:#000;">
              <strong style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               ‘Trump gets a two-fer’
              </strong>
             </h2>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Several U.S. investment firms including Fidelity, Pimco, and Discovery Capital Management 
could come out ahead amid the recent turbulence,
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               per Bloomberg
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               . That has caught the attention of Democrats like Sen. Elizabeth Warren of 
Massachusetts. She already sent a letter to Treasury
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               demanding more
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               information about the bailout.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               “Evidently, the hedge fund that will benefit is the one that has Treasury Secretary Bessent’s good friend managing it,” Warren told me,
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               referring
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               to Rob Citrone, the co-founder of Discovery Capital Management. Citrone and Bessent were once professional associates in the investment world.
              </span>
              <strong style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
              </strong>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               In the years since, Citrone has
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               bet big
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               on Argentine bonds and Milei, though he hasn’t added to his portfolio since September’s Argentine elections.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               “Donald Trump gets a two-fer here,” Warren said. “He gets to bail out his political ally in Argentina, who is very unpopular and in big trouble, and his treasury 
secretary apparently gets to help his hedge fund buddies.”
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               
              </span>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Citrone’s Discovery Capital Management declined to comment.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Anger at the bailout extends to the Republican side as well. In particular, it upset GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               after China secured
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               a deal to snap up Argentine soybeans. The surprise agreement further shut out American soybean farmers
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               who haven’t sold
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               a single bushel to China since May, a casualty of
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               Trump’s ongoing trade wars
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               .
              </span>
             </p>
             <h2 style="mso-line-height-rule:exactly;Margin:0;line-height:1.8;font-family:Arial;font-size:20px;color:#000;">
              <strong style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               ‘This gives China more leverage’
              </strong>
             </h2>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Signs of dissent are bubbling up within the Trump administration. In an Associated Press photo, Bessent
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               was pictured
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               in the midst of an apparent text exchange with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins about the bailout. She raised alarm about Beijing buying Argentine soybeans: “
              </span>
              <span style="color:#0C0C0C;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               This gives China more leverage on us,” the message said.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#0C0C0C;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               The Treasury Department and Agriculture Department did not respond to Quartz’s request for comment.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Trump is trying to solve a riddle that no one has cracked by wading into the Argentine economy. The International Monetary Fund
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               has provided
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               23 loan packages to Argentina since 1958, but its economy never fully developed into a mature one. What it developed instead was a
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               reputation
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               as a serial defaulter. Argentina is the largest debtor nation in the IMF, far outpacing even the second on the list: war-torn Ukraine. The IMF
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               extended its
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               latest $20 billion loan to Argentina only five months ago.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Monica de Bolle, an ex-IMF economist now at the Peterson Institute for International 
Economics, compared the Argentine economy to a sphinx that has devoured macroeconomists for decades. Now the U.S. is in the same position as the IMF: a lender of last resort.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               “It's risky,” de Bolle told me, “just from the fact that the U.S. is giving Argentina a lot of money without any guarantee that it's going to get repaid.”
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 
1.8">
              <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               —Joseph Zeballos-Roig
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <em style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Joseph Zeballos-Roig is Quartz’s Washington Correspondent. Email him at
              </em>
              <em style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#1155CC;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               <a data-linktype="Email" style="color:#1155CC" target="_blank">
                jzeballos-roig@qz.com
               </a>
              </em>
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               and follow him on X at
              </em>
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               <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC" target="_blank">
                @josephzeballos
               </a>
              </em>
              <em style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               .
              </em>
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              </em>
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