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   What worries Larry Summers
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   The former treasury secretary on inflation, recessions risks, and more
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               October 16, 2025
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               Larry Summers hasn’t stopped worrying about inflation.
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               Four years ago, the former Clinton-era treasury secretary was ahead of the curve in predicting price increases after the Biden 
administration enacted a $1.9 trillion COVID stimulus and recovery package. His prediction was correct. But liberal economists sparred over his diagnosis and pointed to the role of pandemic-snarled supply chains in driving up prices.
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                  A message from the Harvard Business School
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                   HBS Executive Education—General Management Program
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                  The
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                    General Management Program
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                  offers a comprehensive view of the
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                  organization. Accelerate the leadership transition by blending full-time, personalized learning with practical application on the job—maximizing your learning and return on investment.
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              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:20px">
               Today, Summers sees a U.S. economy staying sturdy despite President Donald Trump’s
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               tariffs
              </a>
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:20px">
               ,
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               his attacks
              </a>
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:20px">
               on the Federal Reserve, 
and his
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               staggering interventions
              </a>
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:20px">
               into businesses. He says business leaders should be more active in recognizing the self-inflicted threats to U.S. economic growth, which resemble a populism more common in Latin 
America.
               <span class="ql-cursor">
                
               </span>
              </span>
             </p>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:20px">
               The International Monetary Fund warned this week that
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:20px" target="_blank">
               the AI spending boom might mirror the dot-com bubble
              </a>
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:20px">
               of the late 1990s, which burst at the start of the 2000s. Summers didn’t want to lean into the comparison, but suggested companies’ AI spending still has room to grow.
              </span>
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              <br/>
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              <span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:16pt">
               I spoke with Summers last week to gauge his views on the state of America’s economy. Here’s some of what he said, lightly edited and condensed for clarity.
              </span>
              <a data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#1155CC;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:16pt" target="_blank">
               Visit qz.com tomorrow for more from our interview
              </a>
              <span style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:16pt">
               .
              </span>
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               Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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              <strong style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Quartz Washington
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               : The U.S. economy has been surprisingly resilient in the face of Trump's tariffs. Are you worried about a recession at this point? And feel free to cite a 
statistic that you think hasn't gotten enough attention lately.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <strong style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Larry Summers
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               : “I think it's very difficult to read the economy right now. I am, if anything, a bit more worried about inflation than I am about recession, given the strength of most categories of consumption spending, most categories of business investment and the relatively expansionary posture of 
monetary and fiscal policy and some signs of rising inflation expectations. I think the greater risks are on that side.
              </span>
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              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               “I certainly see that the labor market is weakening. But some of that has to do with reduced labor supply associated with border policies, rather than reduced labor demand. I do think that the economy has proven more resilient with respect to tariff policies and other unusual government interventions in the economy,
such as Fed bashing-and taking shares in individual companies than I would have expected.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               “I attribute the ‘better than I would have expected’ performance to three things. First, experience, particularly in Latin America, suggests that populist policies often have relatively good outcomes in the very short run, even as they portend very poor long term outcomes. Second, there is an increased sense that in the face of sharp market 
reactions, policies will be reversed. Third, any policy headwinds are being offset by tailwinds coming from greater optimism about technology, particularly artificial intelligence.”
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <strong style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Quartz Washington:
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Going back to the earlier part of your response — you're more worried about inflation and in the short term. How do you think Jerome Powell and the Fed are doing in 
balancing the risk between a softening labor market and rising inflation? Should they have waited to lower interest rates?
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <strong style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Summers: “
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               A few years ago, I had a very strong view that the Fed was way behind the curve on inflation in 2021. Any view I have today is much less strong and definitive. I do think that the Fed is tilting more towards easing than would be my 
instinct, given the balance of risks — in part because I believe that the neutral interest rate is closer to 4%. So I am not bought into the idea that monetary policy at current rates is meaningfully restrictive.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               “My view is supported by the fact that most financial conditions indicators are flashing pretty bright green.”
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <strong style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Quartz Washington:
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Continuing on that theme of monetary policy, you signed on to the amicus brief defending Fed independence not long ago with three former Fed chairs and many other bipartisan economic officials. Can we expect to see more instances of collective action like that in the weeks and months ahead?
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <strong style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Summers: “
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               I think that was a judgment. That amicus brief came together because of a widely shared concern about a particular issue that was before the Supreme Court. There's certainly no ongoing coalition with plans to make more statements. But I'm sure as events develop, people will consider what's best to do.”
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <strong style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Quartz Washington:
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Fed independence is basically a sacrosanct thing in the U.S. economy. And I'm wondering if more business leaders should step out and defend the Fed? Citadel CEO Ken Griffin wrote a WSJ op-ed last month. But other than that, it's been pretty muted from the business community.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <strong style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Summers: 
“
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Every business leader has to make their own judgments. I do think that our business community has a strong interest in policies being carried out within a broad American tradition of respect for law and depoliticization of economic policies, whether those be Federal Reserve policies, regulatory, or other policies. I think it would be helpful If more people in the business community were to recognize the possible dangers of nationalist populist economics of the Latin American 
variety, to which we seem increasingly prone.”
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <strong style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Quartz Washington:
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               As someone who is of Latin American descent — my family is Peruvian — I've been very intrigued by your answers recently that you're worried about the nationalist, populist policies of Latin America, creeping into the United States. I know you've mentioned Peronism in the past, the dangers of 
Peronism in the U.S.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <strong style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Summers:
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               “For much of my career, I have been commenting on how important it would be, and how valuable it would be, if Latin American countries became more like the United States in terms of having secure transfers of power at elections, independent judiciaries, fiscally prudent budget policies, independent central banks, economies 
[relatively] open to the rest of the world. Policies based on open capitalism and open markets rather than crony capitalism and open societies where dissent is not punished by legal authorities.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               “I've always felt that Latin America would prosper more if it evolved in those directions. And until quite recently, I had not really contemplated the possibility of convergence in the other direction, with the United States becoming 
more like Latin America. That is, to my mind, a troubling prospect, made more troubling by the fact that the United States, unlike any of the countries in Latin America, is a superpower with major global responsibilities.”
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <strong style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Quartz Washington
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               : Gold hit record highs this past week. What does that tell us about the status of the dollar and investors' confidence in the
U.S.? Might we be entering a post-dollar era where U.S. currency no longer reigns supreme?
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <strong style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Summers
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               : “The dollar value is defined relative to other currencies. While we certainly have our enormous number of challenges, we also have some very strong fundamentals that make us an attractive place to invest capital. Major alternatives to the dollar, like the euro, the 
yen, and the Chinese renminbi have very serious challenges as well. I think it's probably a good idea to think of the strength of gold as commentary on the dollar and more a commentary on very broad concerns about political intrusion in economies.”
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <strong style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Quartz Washington:
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Companies have made enormous investments in AI this year, and the ensuing AI spending boom has 
fueled anxiety about a bubble that will pop sooner or later. Are we experiencing a situation comparable to the dotcom bust of the early 2000s?
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <strong style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Summers:
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               “I think every investor will have to make their own judgment about how to think about analogies with the 1990s. There are certainly arguments that would suggest that. But one could also make arguments suggesting 
that we're currently in a place like we were in in 1997, when expansion had substantial room to run and when there was substantial market appreciation yet to happen.
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.8">
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               “It's noteworthy that we're in a quite rare confluence, the circumstance where earnings are rising quite rapidly and interest rates are falling. So I am sure we have not seen the last technological bubble. But whether we are near the end of an expansion or one that has 
some substantial room to run is not a judgment I'm prepared to make with any definiteness. In general, I would advise people against attempting to time markets.”
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.38">
              <span style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               —Joseph Zeballos-Roig
              </span>
             </p>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <p style="line-height: 1.38">
              <em style="background-color:rgba(0,0,0,0);font-size:20px">
               Joseph Zeballos-Roig is Quartz’s Washington Correspondent. Email him at
               <a data-linktype="Email" target="_blank">
                jzeballos-roig@qz.com
               </a>
               and follow him on X at
               <a data-linktype="Normal" target="_blank">
                @josephzeballos
               </a>
               .
              </em>
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