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           Lifetime Value (LTV) predicts the amount a customer will spend on your product or service before churning.
          </p>
          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           It’s used to calculate Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) and other metrics.
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          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           It’s important. That’s why we hear about it a lot in SaaS.
          </p>
          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           But LTV is hard to measure accurately for growing SaaS and subscription companies.
          </p>
          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           The simple formula for LTV
           <strong>
            (LTV = Average Monthly Revenue Per User / User Churn)
           </strong>
           is actually misleading because of the blindness of the churn metric.
          </p>
          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           Let me quickly demonstrate how the LTV metric is misleading using a simulation of a hypothetical company’s business metrics.
          </p>
          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           Imagine Company A is a growing SaaS subscription business. Company A is defined by the following characteristics:
          </p>
          <ul style="margin:1em 0;margin-left:1em;padding:0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4;list-style-position:outside !important;list-style-position:inside">
           <li style="padding:0 0 0 1em;margin:0;margin-left:1em">
            <span>
             Average subscription lifetime is 3.7 years
            </span>
           </li>
           <li style="padding:0 0 0 1em;margin:0;margin-left:1em">
            <span>
             Average subscription fee is $20 per month
            </span>
           </li>
           <li style="padding:0 0 0 1em;margin:0;margin-left:1em">
            <span>
             The LTV is $904 (We know this by calculating 3.7 years (45.2 months) x $20)
            </span>
           </li>
           <li style="padding:0 0 0 1em;margin:0;margin-left:1em">
            <span>
             The number of sign-ups per month is increasing each month by 1%
            </span>
           </li>
          </ul>
          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           Let’s assume that Company A continues with these characteristics for 100 months. After 100 months, Company A would then have:
          </p>
          <ul style="margin:1em 0;margin-left:1em;padding:0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4;list-style-position:outside !important;list-style-position:inside">
           <li style="padding:0 0 0 1em;margin:0;margin-left:1em">
            <span>
             Double the number of signups on average each month
            </span>
           </li>
           <li style="padding:0 0 0 1em;margin:0;margin-left:1em">
            <span>
             LTV will still be $904
            </span>
           </li>
          </ul>
          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           The LTV doesn’t change because we have designed the simulation with an LTV of $904 as a parameter.
           <br/>
           ​
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           The graph below comes from the simulation of Company A’s business metrics over time, showing Active Subscribers over time:
          </p>
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                ​
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           With the increasing sign-ups, our active customer population rockets upward, as expected. Sweet!
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          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           But how does our simple LTV calculation fare?
          </p>
          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           Typically, the simple LTV is calculated as follows:
          </p>
          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           <strong>
            Simple LTV = Average Monthly Revenue Per User / User Churn
           </strong>
          </p>
          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           We can easily calculate a value for churn using the data from our simulation by pulling the total number of users at any given time.
          </p>
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           Let’s calculate the simple LTV metric over time for Company A:
           <br/>
           ​
          </p>
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                ​
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           ​
           <br/>
           The graph above shows Company A’s LTV calculation over time, where the dotted blue line is the LTV parameter of $904, and the yellow line is the simple LTV calculation according to the formula above.
          </p>
          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           The simple LTV calculation is way off.
          </p>
          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           In fact, the simple LTV calculation converges with the true value only after about ten years.
          </p>
          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           <strong>
            Even after five years into this simulation, our LTV estimates are off by as much as 50%
           </strong>
           .
          </p>
          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           Why?
          </p>
          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           The simple LTV formula is sensitive to a changing customer population, even though the customer population size should have nothing to do with the lifetime value of the individual.
          </p>
          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           This is because the simple LTV formula depends on churn, and the churn metric itself is sensitive in environments with rapidly changing population size.
          </p>
          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           Keep reading to find a more accurate method to calculate LTV using statistical models.
           <br/>
           ​
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           And if you haven’t already, check out the other articles in our Price Optimization in SaaS series:
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           1.
           <a rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color:#6078ff" target="_blank" url-id="1399652928">
            Price Optimization: An Introduction
           </a>
           ​
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          <p style="margin:1em 0;font-size:18px;line-height:1.5em;font-family:Arial,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,'Segoe UI',Roboto,Oxygen-Sans,Ubuntu,Cantarell,'Helvetica Neue',sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px;line-height:1.4">
           2.
           <a rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color:#6078ff" target="_blank" url-id="1399652929">
            Customer Retention
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           ​
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           3.
           <a rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color:#6078ff" target="_blank" url-id="1399652930">
            Why You Should Experiment &amp; What Data to Use
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           ​
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           4.
           <a rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color:#6078ff" target="_blank" url-id="1399652931">
            What does Churn tell us?
           </a>
           ​
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           ​
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           Cheers,
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