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   Your Friday Briefing: The future of the climate
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   Both the most devastating and the most optimistic scenarios now seem unlikely.
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             October 28, 2022
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             By
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              Natasha Frost
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            <p style="font:13px/18px arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:.2px;color:#000;margin-bottom:0">
             Writer, Briefings
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             Good morning. The climate’s future is becoming less uncertain.
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                 <span class="css-2zlgwg" style="margin:0;font:normal 12px georgia,serif;color:#666">
                  A wind farm in California. The shift toward renewable energy has made the most apocalyptic climate scenarios less likely.
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                 <span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  Devin Oktar Yalkin for The New York Times
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            <h2 style="color:#000;font:700 24px/31px nyt-cheltenham,georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             A new climate reality comes into view
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             With the world already 1.2 degrees hotter than in preindustrial times, scientists believe that
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              warming this century will most likely fall between two or three degrees
             </a>
             ,. A U.N. report released this week ahead of the COP27 climate conference in Egypt confirms that range. Decarbonization has made the most terrifying predictions improbable, while the most hopeful ones have been foreclosed by tragic delay.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             That scenario is an improvement over earlier projections, but it still
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              translates into severe disruption
             </a>
             . With each fraction of a degree of warming, tens of millions more people worldwide will be exposed to life-threatening heat waves, food and water scarcity, and flooding. Globally, unified action on climate change continues to be a challenge.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have had a positive climate impact, according to the International Energy Agency: The energy crisis caused by the war is likely to speed up the transition from fossil fuels toward cleaner technologies. But that shift is not happening fast enough to avoid dangerous levels of global warming, the agency said.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              Analysis:
             </span>
             “It’s notable that many of these new clean energy targets aren’t being put in place solely for climate change reasons,” said Fatih Birol, the I.E.A.’s executive director. “Increasingly, the big drivers are energy security as well as industrial policy — a lot of countries want to be at the leading edge of the energy industries of the future.”
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                <img class="css-17i7zb3" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2022%252F10%252F28%252Fmultimedia%252F28AM-brf-euro-Ukr-Putin-1-5add%252F28AM-brf-euro-Ukr-Putin-1-5add-articleLarge.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1ooHUI:A7FsnPt3KZgUsgO2PqxXTbK6V8GcniIpzCbkLptavYo" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;height:auto;padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0"/>
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                 <span class="css-2zlgwg" style="margin:0;font:normal 12px georgia,serif;color:#666">
                  President Vladimir Putin said there were “at least two Wests,” one of which was trying to impose “pretty strange” values on the world.
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                  Pool photo by Pavel Barykin
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             Putin rails against ‘Western elites’
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             In a speech
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              seemingly aimed at conservatives outside of Russia
             </a>
             , President Vladimir Putin said that Russia’s battle was with “Western elites,” not with the West itself. Many of the themes of his speech were familiar, but they took on particular resonance given the growing dissent, in the U.S. and internationally, over the costs of the war.
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             “There are at least two Wests,” Putin said, contrasting what he saw as one of “traditional, mainly Christian values” with one that was “aggressive, cosmopolitan, neocolonial, acting as the weapon of the neoliberal elite” and trying to impose its “pretty strange” values on the rest of the world.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Putin portrayed Russia as threatened by the possible expansion of NATO and the values of its liberal democracies, but denied that Moscow was preparing to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. “We have no need to do this,” he said. “There’s no sense for us, neither political nor military.”
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              Analysis:
             </span>
             “This is a trick — it shouldn’t make anyone relax,” Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian political analyst, said, noting that Putin has blamed the West and its support of Ukraine for every escalation in the war. “His goal is to show that escalation is the product of Western policies.”
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              In other news from the war:
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
               Fearing
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                aggression from Belarus
               </a>
               , Ukraine said it had increased its troop presence in the north.
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             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
               Russian loyalists
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                stole the bones of Prince Grigory Aleksandrovich Potemkin
               </a>
               — an inspiration to Putin — from Ukraine.
              </span>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
               The Biden administration outlined a program to keep the weapons it has sent Ukraine
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                from ending up on the black market
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               .
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                 <span class="css-2zlgwg" style="margin:0;font:normal 12px georgia,serif;color:#666">
                  Quarterly changes in U.S. gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation.
                 </span>
                 <span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  By The New York Times | Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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            <h2 style="color:#000;font:700 24px/31px nyt-cheltenham,georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             A cloudy economic forecast
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             The U.S. economy grew slowly over the summer, adding to fears of a looming recession while simultaneously
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              keeping alive the hope that one might be avoided
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             . And in Europe, the European Central Bank
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              imposed another large interest rate increase yesterday
             </a>
             , as policymakers tried to quickly quell the region’s record-high inflation.
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             In the U.S., gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, increased by 0.6 percent after six months of decline, slightly exceeding forecasters’ expectations. That suggests that a path to a “soft landing,” in which policymakers cool off red-hot demand without snuffing out the recovery entirely, remains open, but narrow.
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             Forecasts in Europe, where prices continue to rise, are less positive. “Over the winter it will also become increasingly apparent that the eurozone economy has entered a significant recession,” economists at the bank Berenberg predicted. They expect policymakers to raise rates only twice more.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              Ripple effects:
             </span>
             Rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve have
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              hurt other currencies
             </a>
             — including those of Japan, China and India — by making it harder for foreign borrowers with debt in U.S. dollars to repay their loans.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              Quotable:
             </span>
             “Ignore the headline number — growth rates are slowing,” Michael Gapen, the chief U.S. economist for Bank of America, said. “It wouldn’t take much further slowing from here to tip the economy into a recession.”
            </p>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
               Israel and Lebanon, which are technically still at war, signed
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                a maritime agreement
               </a>
               regulating their rights to gas reserves at sea.
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
               The Dutch government is investigating reports that
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Chinese law enforcement agencies are illegally operating offices in the Netherlands
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               to police Chinese citizens overseas.
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               Britain’s national equality body instructed schools that
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                students should not be stopped from wearing natural Afro hairstyles
               </a>
               .
              </span>
             </li>
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                  Alexis Huguet/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
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               European leaders have been converging on Africa’s capital cities, eager to find
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                alternatives to Russian natural gas
               </a>
               . Above, a drilling operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
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             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
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               After more than a year of wrangling, Iraq’s Parliament approved a new government. But while this ends the deadlock, it
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                perpetuates a system plagued by corruption and dysfunction
               </a>
               .
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               For a second day in a row, tens of thousands of demonstrators protested across Iran against
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                the country’s authoritarian clerical rule
               </a>
               .
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               After months of lawsuits and fighting, Elon Musk
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                closed his $44 billion deal to buy Twitter
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               last night.
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             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
               The International Monetary Fund announced
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                a $3 billion loan to Egypt
               </a>
               , the fourth such bailout in six years, and one that will not cover its enormous debts.
              </span>
             </li>
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            The Week in Culture
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               Skechers said it
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                escorted Kanye West
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               , who has repeatedly made antisemitic statements, from its offices after he showed up there unannounced. Many wonder
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                whether his music can withstand the backlash
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               ;
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                fans are considering
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               stepping away, too.
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               Apple
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                barred Spotify’s audiobook service
               </a>
               from its app store three times, the latest skirmish in a feud between the companies over Apple’s restrictions on developers.
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             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
               The Santa Fe County Sheriff’s Office delivered its
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                report on the fatal shooting of a cinematographer
               </a>
               on the set of “Rust,” in which a gun that Alec Baldwin was holding went off.
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
               A
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                demonstrator in The Hague glued his head
               </a>
               to Vermeer’s “Girl With a Pearl Earring,” the latest climate protest to target a world-renowned painting.
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
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            A Morning Read
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                <img class="css-1ag4mtp" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2022%252F10%252F28%252Fmultimedia%252F28AM-brf-euro-Mars-1-dfd9%252F28AM-brf-euro-Mars-1-dfd9-articleLarge.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1ooHUI:A7FsnPt3KZgUsgO2PqxXTbK6V8GcniIpzCbkLptavYo" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;height:auto;padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0"/>
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                  NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Arizona, via Associated Press
                 </span>
                </span>
               </td>
              </tr>
             </tbody>
            </table>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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         <tbody>
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             ’Twas the night before Christmas, and all over Mars, not a creature was stirring, ’gainst a backdrop of stars.
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
         <tbody>
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Until everything shook, that is. An exquisitely sensitive NASA seismometer dutifully recorded the burst of seismic vibrations and then dispatched the marsquake data, a gift of science, to Earth the next day.
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              But what was this seismic event
             </a>
             ?
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
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       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <h3 class="css-1fceny0" style="color:#000;font:700 16px/24px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
             SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC
            </h3>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              Playing for a country you barely know:
             </span>
             For athletes with dual nationality, representing a country you didn’t grow up in can raise questions around cultural identity. The current reality is a consistent run of players
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              representing a country they’ve never even visited
             </a>
             .
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              Manchester City women stop wearing white shorts:
             </span>
             And they aren’t alone. Multiple teams
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              will no longer wear white shorts
             </a>
             as part of a commitment to help players “feel comfortable and perform at their highest level” while on their periods.
            </p>
           </td>
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        </table>
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              Bleak times for La Liga in Champions League:
             </span>
             After an evening that descended into farce,La Liga was left with just
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              one club in the Champions League’s final 16
             </a>
             . At this point, Spanish clubs have been knocked off their perch by European rivals. It’s a sobering stretch in the history of a proud league.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              From The Times:
             </span>
             Major League Baseball is considering adopting an automated strike zone system as soon as 2024, potentially ending the era of umpires at the World Series. Take your turn behind the plate:
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Are you more accurate than a major league umpire
             </a>
             ?
            </p>
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            <h3 class="css-1fceny0" style="color:#000;font:700 16px/24px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
             SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICA
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                  A demonstration in Addis Ababa last weekend in support of Ethiopia’s armed forces.
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                  Amanuel Sileshi/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
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            <h2 style="color:#000;font:700 24px/31px nyt-cheltenham,georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             High-stakes talks on Ethiopia
            </h2>
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         </tbody>
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       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             After nearly two years of civil war, representatives from the Ethiopian government and rebel forces in the country’s Tigray region began holding formal peace talks this week. If the negotiations fail, it may
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              exacerbate a conflict
             </a>
             in which thousands have been killed and millions displaced.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Little has emerged so far from the talks, which are being held in South Africa and mediated by former African leaders on behalf of the African Union. Tigrayans in exile have said they have little hope that the talks will end the fighting, which began
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              after a contested election
             </a>
             .
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             “Ethiopia faces multiple challenges including major climatic stresses, an economy in deep distress, partly due to the war, and a number of other rebellions,” Murithi Mutiga, the Africa program director at the International Crisis Group, said.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             “It can’t afford a yearslong war on its borders,” he added. “A collapse in the talks will mean even more carnage in a war that’s already one of the world’s deadliest.”
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              — Lynsey Chutel, a reporter based in Johannesburg
             </span>
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             PLAY, WATCH, EAT
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            What to Cook
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                 <span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:0;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  Christopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Monica Pierini.
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             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Pasta e lenticchie
             </a>
             is peasant food with luxurious flavors.
            </p>
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            What to Listen to
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Revisit Stevie Wonder’s
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              landmark 1972 album “Talking Book”
             </a>
             on its 50th anniversary.
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            Comedy
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             Nick Kroll, Hasan Minhaj and others try to
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              mine fresh insights from parenthood
             </a>
             in new specials.
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            Now Time to Play
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             Here’s
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              today’s Mini Crossword
             </a>
             , and a clue: Drink with green and black varieties (three letters).
            </p>
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             And here are
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              today’s Wordle
             </a>
             and
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              the Spelling Bee
             </a>
             .
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              You can find all our puzzles here
             </a>
             .
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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