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   An impossible job for Warsh
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   Plus: New York's retreat from its own climate law.
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          Tuesday, June 16, 2026
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           The new Fed chair's first big test pits Trump against the bond market
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          Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is heading into his first 
Federal Open Market Committee meeting facing pressure from two directions: a bond market betting that interest rates need to rise and a president insisting they should fall.
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          Holding the benchmark rate in its current 3.5% to 3.75% range at the June 16-17 meeting is the near-universal expectation on Wall Street, as officials try to gauge how the energy-price fallout from the Iran war is working its way through the broader economy. But Warsh's post-meeting statement and press conference will be parsed closely for signals 
about where the central bank is headed next.
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          Markets have shifted sharply in recent weeks. Despite some easing of rate-hike bets after news of a ceasefire deal, options markets were still assigning about an 80% probability to at least one quarter-point increase before year's end, according to Bloomberg. The two-year Treasury yield is trading above 4%, topping the Fed's own policy rate, while 30-year bonds sit at levels not seen since 2007.
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          One phrase in particular will draw scrutiny. The 
so-called easing bias signals that the Fed is still inclined to cut rates, and Warsh may drop it. That would fit his broader effort to make the Fed less predictable about future moves.
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                            Yes. Inflation is stickier than expected
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                           <!--[if mso]><a href="https://www.ne16.com/t/10875343/222404108/9983072/1/1009235/?abb9e380=NGYzZmQyODYtMmZhOS00YzdjLWFkYzktMzQyOGNhZmI3ZDBl&f5d63f87=REIlMjAwNi0xNg&x=bf0ba145" 
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                            No. Hiking would hurt the economy
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                           <!--[if mso]><a href="https://www.ne16.com/t/10875343/222404108/9983073/1/1009235/?abb9e380=NGYzZmQyODYtMmZhOS00YzdjLWFkYzktMzQyOGNhZmI3ZDBl&f5d63f87=REIlMjAwNi0xNg&x=cfc105b9" target="_blank"
style="-webkit-border-radius: 6px; -moz-border-radius: 6px; border-radius: 6px; color: #FFFFFF; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px;  border: none; display: block; ">No. Hiking would hurt the economy</a><![endif]-->
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               <a data-linktext="Iran peace deal sends oil prices to their lowest point in months." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#105C8E" target="_blank">
                Iran peace deal sends oil prices to their lowest point in months.
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              A preliminary U.S. agreement with Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of the world's seaborne oil and gas. The passage
had been closed since the conflict began, pushing energy costs higher.
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               <a data-linktext="Vance expects the Strait of Hormuz to be toll-free long term." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#105C8E" target="_blank">
                Vance expects the Strait of Hormuz to be toll-free long term.
               </a>
              </strong>
              Vice President JD Vance said traffic in the waterway had already picked up and that further negotiations would settle the technical details of the arrangement. Shipping groups say the deal lacks clarity on safe routes and timing.
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               <a data-linktext="Fox agrees to buy streaming platform Roku for $22 billion." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#105C8E" target="_blank">
                Fox agrees to buy streaming platform Roku for $22 billion.
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              Fox will pay $160 per share in a cash and stock transaction expected to close in 2027. Together, the two companies would become the third largest player in the U.S. by viewing share. Roku's
platform reaches more than 100 million households.
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               <a data-linktext="Nvidia joins the AI borrowing frenzy with its biggest bond sale ever." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#105C8E" target="_blank">
                Nvidia joins the AI borrowing frenzy with its biggest bond sale ever.
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              The $20 billion deal is expected to be more than four times the size of its two previous bond offerings combined. Tech giants have raised hundreds of billions for AI data centers, and Nvidia's chips are powering that buildout.
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               <a data-linktext="Anthropic lobbies Trump officials to restore two AI models." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#105C8E" target="_blank">
                Anthropic lobbies Trump officials to restore two AI models.
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              President Donald Trump issued the export controls after Amazon researchers found a 
security flaw in one model. Anthropic says the vulnerability is minor. The shutdown comes as the company prepares for a public stock offering.
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