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👋 Hi Sarah. Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead and what you might've missed last week.
</p>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Poppins', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; font-weight: 700; line-height: 1.25; margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 24px; color: #171E27; color: rgba(23, 30, 39, 1); font-size: 24px; font-family: 'Poppins', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
The Whole Enchilada
</h3>
<p data-block-key="hcwxd" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
Some weeks, investors get a single piece of news to chew on. But this one’s more of a fully loaded situation.
</p>
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<img alt="The Whole Enchilada" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Ffinimize-img.imgix.net%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fchivas-assets.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com%252Fstatic%252Fimages%252FWeekly-240426-BigBanksBigTech.original.jpg%253Ffit%253Dclip%2526h%253DNone%2526ixlib%253Dpython-3.1.2%2526w%253D768%2526s%253D2398acab1413c7b7386781b372a79dad/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZmaW5pbWl6ZS1pbSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NzcyNDMyNjUuMzQ0NzM3OH0:1wH89x:OPVrBVuZsgRpwKz458bK3pf8D-ipzxrKnRjpL9EgYwo" width="100%"/>
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🔍 The focus this week: Hyperscalers and policymakers
</p>
<p data-block-key="6az05" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
📆 Five of the world’s most valuable companies will post quarterly results, and four of its most important central banks will decide what to do with interest rates – all in just three days. Any one of these could move markets on its own. Together, they make for one of the biggest weeks of the year.
</p>
<p data-block-key="6977f" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
► Let’s start with earnings.
<b>
Amazon
</b>
,
<b>
Alphabet
</b>
,
<b>
Meta
</b>
, and
<b>
Microsoft
</b>
all report on Wednesday, followed by
<b>
Apple
</b>
on Thursday. Between them, they make up a huge chunk of the S&P 500, so what they say tends to ripple well beyond tech.
</p>
<p data-block-key="3pt3q" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
And for Wednesday’s foursome, investors might care less about revenue and profit – and more about how much they’re spending. Those hyperscalers – the huge cloud-computing providers driving the AI boom – have said they’ll spend close to $700 billion on the data centers this year. That’s an eye-watering figure – about double what they spent two years ago and big enough to leave a dent in their accounts. Some analysts now see Amazon's free cash flow swinging into the red this year: Morgan Stanley’s estimating a $17 billion deficit, while Bank of America pegs it closer to $28 billion. So investors are asking the obvious question… when (and how) does all this spending start paying off?
</p>
<p data-block-key="2g82e" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
Those giants have said cloud growth, AI products, and better ad targeting will make all the spending worth it. And share prices suggest investors are giving them the benefit of the doubt, at least for now. Amazon is up 13% this year, Alphabet 7%, and Meta 4%. Microsoft is the laggard, off 8%. Apple, meanwhile, is roughly flat – but that’s less about AI, more about China, consumers, and iPhone demand.
</p>
<p data-block-key="eg998" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
► And then there's the central bank announcement spree. The
<b>
Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of Japan, European Central Bank,
</b>
and
<b>
Bank of England
</b>
all meet within a 48-hour window. And yes, all four are expected to hold. But "hold" doesn't mean "nothing to see here".
</p>
<p data-block-key="bgmfb" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
The Fed is the main event. US inflation came in hot in March – mostly because of higher oil and gas prices. The labor report was surprisingly firm, too, with a whopping 178,000 new jobs added and unemployment ticking down to 4.3%. That's about as tidy a case for "leave interest rates alone” as the central bank could ask for. The real question now is how the Fed’s chief talks about what’s next. Some analysts, including at JPMorgan, don't see the next move arriving until
<i>
next year
</i>
– and, remarkably, they say it could be a hike rather than a cut. Any hint of that, and investors won’t love it. They’ll send stocks lower, and Treasury yields higher.
</p>
<p data-block-key="c1eta" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
The other three central banks will fill in the global picture. The Bank of Japan was looking like it might hike interest rates this month, but Middle East tensions and higher oil prices have given policymakers reason to wait until June – which is likely to weigh on its currency, the yen. And the European Central Bank, which has done most of its cutting already, is now being watched for signs of a hike. The Bank of England, meanwhile, is expected to leave rates as they are, with inflation there getting steamier.
</p>
<p data-block-key="kfou" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
➕ Put it all together and the week comes down to two tensions. First: whether AI spending starts looking like it might pay off fast enough to justify all those hundreds of billions being thrown at it. And second: whether sticky inflation seems to be pushing central banks from "holding" to "hiking". Either one could reset the tone for the rest of the quarter.
</p>
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📅 On the calendar
</p>
<ul style="padding: 0; margin: 0; list-style-type: disc; margin-left: 19px;">
<li data-block-key="gn5an" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Monday:
</b>
China industrial profits (March).
</li>
<li data-block-key="7sa9b" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Tuesday:
</b>
Bank of Japan interest rate decision, Japan unemployment (March), US consumer confidence (April).
<b>
Earnings:
</b>
Coca-Cola, GM, Booking, Starbucks, Visa.
</li>
<li data-block-key="7h1kc" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Wednesday:
</b>
Eurozone economic confidence (April), US durable goods orders (March), Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
<b>
Earnings:
</b>
Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Qualcomm.
</li>
<li data-block-key="6lebd" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Thursday:
</b>
Japan retail sales and industrial production (March), China PMIs (April), eurozone economic growth (Q1), eurozone inflation (April), eurozone unemployment (March), European Central Bank interest rate decision, Bank of England interest rate decision, US economic growth (Q1), US personal income and outlays (March).
<b>
Earnings:
</b>
Apple, Mastercard, Merck, Eli Lilly, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Caterpillar.
</li>
<li data-block-key="facke" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0;">
<b>
Friday:
</b>
US manufacturing PMI (April).
<b>
Earnings:
</b>
Chevron, ExxonMobil.
</li>
</ul>
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👀 What you might’ve missed last week
</p>
<p data-block-key="6z208" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
<b>
💵 The US
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="fo2i8" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
</p>
<p data-block-key="44avm" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
<a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
<b>
Tesla
</b>
</a>
pulled off a surprise in an otherwise scrappy quarter. The EV maker actually brought in $1.4 billion more cash than it spent – a big deal, because analysts had expected it to
<i>
burn through
</i>
$1.4 billion instead. The main reason: a temporary setback on AI and new factory projects meant that Tesla’s money wasn’t flying out the door quite as quickly as some folks feared. Though that may soon change. In the meantime, car deliveries did rise 6.3% from last year, but that wasn’t enough to impress Wall Street, especially with cheaper rivals gaining ground and US tax credits now gone. But what investors really care about is whether Elon Musk's self-driving push can start making real money. Early moves in Houston and Dallas – plus a possible green light for Tesla's full self-driving in Europe – suggest those wheels might be in motion.
</p>
<p data-block-key="fjcjs" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
</p>
<p data-block-key="8ea8q" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
<b>
💷 The UK
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="etqsh" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
</p>
<p data-block-key="b5cf3" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
The
<b>
British economy
</b>
just
<a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
got hit
</a>
from two sides. Inflation rose to 3.3% in March from 3%, mostly driven by higher fuel prices. At the same time, the prices factories pay for materials shot up 4.4% in a single month, which is usually a clue that higher shop prices are on the way. UK consumers, needless to say, aren’t loving it: a closely watched survey of economic optimism just hit its worst reading since 1978, which is somehow even worse than during the 2008 financial crisis. That leaves the Bank of England in a tough spot. Raise interest rates to fight inflation, and it risks tipping the economy into recession. Hold off, and inflation could stick around for years.
</p>
<p data-block-key="akgei" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
</p>
<p data-block-key="4jj7h" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
<b>
💴 Japan
</b>
</p>
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<b>
Japanese factories
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are suddenly busy this month, with a key manufacturing survey hitting its highest level in four years. And that sounds good until you get to the reason why. Factories are stockpiling and churning out more goods because they're worried about supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. Business confidence has hit its lowest ebb since the pandemic crisis, growth in the services sector has struck an 11-month low, and raw-material costs have jumped at their fastest pace in over three years. And that makes the Bank of Japan's next interest rate move especially tricky.
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