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Daily 2026-07-15
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All metrics are as of the latest market close.
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" width="100%">
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<td class="s20">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="" width="100%">
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<td align="left" class="s9">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="color:#000000;font-family:Inter,sans-serif;font-size:13px;line-height:22px;table-layout:auto;width:100%;border:none;" width="100%">
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<td class="s22">
S&P 500
</td>
<td class="s23">
0.36% ▲
</td>
<td class="s24">
7,571
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="s22">
GOLD
</td>
<td class="s25">
0.06% ▼
</td>
<td class="s24">
$4,067
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="s22">
BITCOIN*
</td>
<td class="s25">
0.02% ▼
</td>
<td class="s24">
$64,961
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" style="font-size:10px;font-family:Trispace,monospace;color:#7F879C;padding:0">
*24-hour change
</td>
</tr>
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="" width="100%">
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<td align="left" style="font-size:0px;padding:10px 25px;padding-top:0;padding-right:0;padding-bottom:0;padding-left:0;word-break:break-word;">
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</tr>
</tbody>
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" width="100%">
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<td class="s20">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="" width="100%">
<tbody>
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<td align="left" class="s9">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="color:#000000;font-family:Inter,sans-serif;font-size:13px;line-height:22px;table-layout:auto;width:100%;border:none;" width="100%">
<tbody>
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<td class="s22">
FTSE 100
</td>
<td class="s25">
0.16% ▼
</td>
<td class="s24">
10,512
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="s22">
BRENT OIL
</td>
<td class="s23">
1.43% ▲
</td>
<td class="s24">
$85.94
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="s22">
US BONDS*
</td>
<td class="s23">
0.04% ▼
</td>
<td class="s24">
4.58%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" style="font-size:10px;font-family:Trispace,monospace;color:#7F879C;padding:0">
*10-year government yield
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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</td>
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<div style="font-family:Inter,sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-weight:700;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;color:#181c25;">
WALL STREET FEAR GAUGE INDEX
(
<a style="font-weight:400;font-family:Trispace,monospace">
VIX
</a>
)
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<p data-block-key="10zqs">
<b>
🐢
</b>
China posted its slowest economic growth in three years
</p>
<p data-block-key="e94kd">
<b>
🔥 FOR PRO MEMBERS:
</b>
FX’s carry trades haven’t looked this good in ages
</p>
<p data-block-key="d32lo">
🛒 Stripe and Advent reportedly made an offer for PayPal
</p>
<p data-block-key="bvg40">
<b>
👇 Keep reading to find out
more
</b>
</p>
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👀
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Today's headlines
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<mj-raw>
<span class="s34">
Stuck In The Slow Lane
</span>
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</div>
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<img alt="Stuck In The Slow Lane" class="s12" height="auto" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Ffinimize-img.imgix.net%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fchivas-assets.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com%252Fstatic%252Fimages%252Feditorial-150726-china_1.original.png%253Fauto%253Dformat%2526fit%253Dcrop%2526h%253D600%2526ixlib%253Dpython-3.1.2%2526w%253D1200%2526s%253Dc26a7b7343851614e8dc22fcf14539c3/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZmaW5pbWl6ZS1pbSIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODQxNTI5NjUuNzU2Mzg3NX0:1wk7gj:4JCjgHC_3j9cIdd_IHnjuq8dcpJdynTunJyy30zeDR8" width="568"/>
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<p data-block-key="j9xil">
<b>
What’s going on here?
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="2jevu">
China's economy grew just 4.3% in the second quarter – its weakest pace in three years and below the government's 4.5% to 5% target range.
</p>
<p data-block-key="7cee9">
<b>
What does this mean?
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="ebebo">
China’s economy is running on two tracks.
</p>
<p data-block-key="1bk1g">
🔺 Factories are zooming along, fueled by global demand for
AI hardware and green tech – exports jumped 27% in June over the year before, the strongest rise since 2021.
</p>
<p data-block-key="1mqlr">
🔻 But the domestic economy is stuck in traffic. Consumer spending is weak, the property market is still sluggish, and business investment is dropping fast – funding for new factories, roads, and buildings fell 5.7% in the first half of the year.
</p>
<p data-block-key="6oan4">
▶ That cranks up pressure on China’s policymakers to produce some meaningful stimulus
at their meeting later this month: cheaper borrowing, bigger infrastructure budgets, property market support – or tax cuts, subsidies, and bailouts.
</p>
<p data-block-key="ehuec">
<b>
Why should I care?
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="e8c8">
<b>
<i>
Zooming in:
</i>
</b>
<i>
Great timing.
</i>
</p>
<p data-block-key="fkn8a">
Chinese exporters have been racing to ship goods before July 24th, when a temporary 10% US tariff expires and higher duties are expected to kick in. That might have inflated the country’s
figures, so the export boom may fade next quarter.
</p>
<p data-block-key="aetjj">
<b>
<i>
Zooming out:
</i>
</b>
<i>
Limping out of deflation.
</i>
</p>
<p data-block-key="2mj1t">
China's broadest measure of inflation turned positive last quarter for the first time since early 2023, ending nearly three years of falling prices. And on paper, that’s great news.
</p>
<p data-block-key="58k56">
🔻 Deflation is economically toxic. When prices keep dropping, consumers delay purchases in hopes of a better deal
later. Shrinking revenue means companies cut wages or jobs, while the burden of
<i>
existing
</i>
debt grows (for consumers and companies alike). That deflationary spiral can last decades – just ask Japan.
</p>
<p data-block-key="p84r">
▶ So escaping deflation should ease hefty mortgages and local government debts, revive corporate revenues, and give policymakers more room to breathe.
</p>
<p data-block-key="57dt3">
⚠️ But this turnaround owes more to higher energy costs from the Iran war than to a
genuine recovery in homegrown demand. China’s not out of the woods yet…
</p>
</div>
</td>
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<td align="left" class="s5">
<div style="font-family:Inter,sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;color:#000000;">
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<img alt="Insight" class="s12" height="auto" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Ffinimize-img.imgix.net%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fchivas-assets.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com%252Fstatic%252Fimages%252FInsight-150726-GS_1.original.png%253Fauto%253Dformat%2526fit%253Dclip%2526h%253DNone%2526ixlib%253Dpython-3.1.2%2526w%253D1200%2526s%253De5681ff40597e7fee01ba7c34595281d/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZmaW5pbWl6ZS1pbSIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODQxNTI5NjUuNzU3MDEzfQ:1wk7gj:lkwjKO1GD9U03Yd-HG7Ac_VsGc0VC6FrgkQvGSfvOxk" width="536"/>
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<td align="left" class="s30">
<div class="s31">
<p data-block-key="pr7ai">
Currency investors love a good
<a>
carry trade
</a>
. And right now, according to Goldman Sachs, they're getting one of the best setups in more than 20 years.
</p>
<p data-block-key="6siac">
That's a big deal because
carry trades are one of the most popular strategies in the $9.5 trillion-a-day currency market, allowing investors
<a>
to profit
</a>
from differences in countries' interest rates.
</p>
<p data-block-key="5qd8i">
Here's why the opportunity looks especially compelling now – and
<a>
how to take advantage
</a>
of it.
</p>
<p data-block-key="8pdbp">
That’s today’s Insight:
<a>
carry trades haven’t looked this good in a long, long time
</a>
.
</p>
<p data-block-key="dhp7s">
<a>
<b>
Read or listen to the Insight here
</b>
</a>
</p>
<p data-block-key="73b1q">
<a>
<b>
Or sign up for a free one-week trial of Finimize Pro
</b>
</a>
</p>
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<a style="color:#4C5469;font-weight:400">
Reda Farran, CFA
</a>
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👀
</span>
<span class="s19">
Today's headlines
</span>
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<mj-raw>
<span class="s34">
Paying For PayPal
</span>
</mj-raw>
</div>
</td>
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<td align="center" class="s5">
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<a target="_blank">
<img alt="Paying For PayPal" class="s12" height="auto" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Ffinimize-img.imgix.net%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fchivas-assets.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com%252Fstatic%252Fimages%252Feditorial-150726-stripe-v2_1.original.png%253Fauto%253Dformat%2526fit%253Dcrop%2526h%253D600%2526ixlib%253Dpython-3.1.2%2526w%253D1200%2526s%253D2789c6e3d2f4fb1978c61cb796b49188/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZmaW5pbWl6ZS1pbSIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODQxNTI5NjUuNzU3Mjc0Nn0:1wk7gj:ggsi5qXu7SQiczsJ5GYB-Orxe6CI5KJfK3IIWtDutBc" width="568"/>
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<div class="s31">
<p data-block-key="vhgpk">
<b>
What’s going on here?
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="f8ubt">
Payments processor
<b>
Stripe
</b>
and private equity firm
<b>
Advent
</b>
reportedly put in a bid for
<b>
PayPal
</b>
– one that values the digital payments giant at $53 billion.
</p>
<p data-block-key="a1q9e">
<b>
What does this mean?
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="2f7r">
The duo offered $60.50 per share, around 28% above the stock’s Tuesday close. That’s well below
the $73-a-share that PayPal’s stock fetched a year ago, and miles off its 2021 peak. Financing for the deal is already lined up, and the pair plan to split ownership of PayPal equally.
</p>
<p data-block-key="ffubn">
▶ No word yet on whether PayPal is even entertaining the offer.
</p>
<p data-block-key="4lj4v">
<b>
Why should I care?
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="32q6j">
<b>
<i>
Zooming in:
</i>
</b>
<i>
PayPal’s reset.
</i>
</p>
<p data-block-key="dc329">
Online marketplace
<b>
eBay
</b>
snapped up the internet’s
original checkout button way back in 2002. But by 2015, PayPal was struggling to compete with
<b>
Apple
</b>
and
<b>
Google’s
</b>
payments systems, not to mention rivals like
<b>
Block’s
</b>
Square and buy-now-pay-later specialist
<b>
Klarna
</b>
. So eBay spun it off into an independent company to try to kickstart growth – but that only worked for a short time.
</p>
<p data-block-key="e76bh">
▶ Now, PayPal’s got a new CEO who’s planning to cut costs by $1.5 billion and reorganize the company into three
operating units. The question is whether this bid will put the kibosh on those plans before he can reboot the business.
</p>
<p data-block-key="dn6er">
<b>
<i>
Zooming out:
</i>
</b>
<i>
Stripe’s bid for PayPal adds up.
</i>
</p>
<p data-block-key="5ung2">
Stripe provides payments plumbing to its solid client base of sizable companies – 90% of firms in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index use it, along with 80% of those in the Nasdaq 100. And Stripe’s growing fast. The company processed $1.9
<i>
trillion
</i>
in payments last year, a 34% increase from 2024. That’s boosting its valuation: the privately held company was worth $159 billion in February, up from $106.5 billion last year.
</p>
<p data-block-key="e0qku">
▶ But Stripe lacks PayPal’s deep consumer base, distribution, and brand recognition. So with PayPal looking cheap (to Stripe, at least), clicking “buy” now makes sense.
</p>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s5">
<div style="font-family:Inter,sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;color:#000000;">
You might also like ⇢
<a>
Stablecoins Aren’t Just For Crypto Bros Anymore
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<div class="s17">
<mj-raw>
<span class="s19">
Sponsored By Cboe
</span>
</mj-raw>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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<![endif]-->
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<a target="_blank">
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<div class="s31">
<p data-block-key="nyvod">
The overall US stock market looked pretty calm during the week beginning July 6th. But that calm hid a lot of
<a>
action underneath
</a>
.
</p>
<p data-block-key="6nhil">
The
<b>
Cboe
</b>
<b>
Volatility
</b>
<b>
Index
</b>
, or VIX Index, fell by 0.8 points to around 15 over the week, leaving it near the
<a>
lowest level
</a>
so far this year. That’s telling: the VIX Index is a forward-looking measure of expected market volatility, based on a basket of S&P 500 Index
options, so it gives a read on how much movement investors are pricing in for the broader US stock market.
</p>
<p data-block-key="5p4ml">
Put simply, investors weren’t anticipating
<a>
a particularly bumpy ride
</a>
for the index itself...
</p>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" style="font-size:0px;padding:10px 25px;word-break:break-word;">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="border-collapse:separate;line-height:100%;">
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<span class="s7">
Read on
</span>
</a>
</td>
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<mj-raw>
<span class="s18">
✨
</span>
<span class="s19">
Sarah's Digest
</span>
</mj-raw>
</div>
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<div style="font-family:Trispace,monospace;font-size:12px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;color:#5E6984;">
What others like you are reading today...
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s37">
<div class="s31">
🪨
<a>
BlackRock’s $192 Billion Quarter Shows ETFs Still Matter
</a>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s5">
<div class="s38">
Record assets hit $15.34 trillion, while Larry Fink also pointed to steadier private credit as BlackRock pushes deeper into higher-fee alternatives.
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s37">
<div class="s31">
🏭
<a>
ASML Plans A Big Capacity Expansion For AI Chips
</a>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s5">
<div class="s38">
The chip-equipment giant lifted its 2026 revenue target to €43-45 billion and said its EUV tool capacity through 2027 is already mostly booked.
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s37">
<div class="s31">
🤖
<a>
OpenAI’s First Gadget Could Be A Screen-Free AI Home Companion
</a>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s5">
<div class="s38">
Bloomberg says OpenAI is building a portable smart speaker with a camera and sensors, just as Apple accuses it of trade-secret theft.
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s37">
<div class="s31">
🛢️
<a>
Stocks Look Past Softer Inflation, Even As Oil Ticks Up
</a>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s5">
<div class="s38">
June’s CPI fell 0.4% and PPI dropped 0.3%, while Brent crude rose to $85.04 as Middle East tensions stayed in focus.
</div>
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<h3 data-block-key="f10gz">
<b>
Outthink the crowd
</b>
</h3>
<p data-block-key="6odr1">
You’ve made it this far, so we’re going to assume you like your
<a>
investing ideas
</a>
with a bit more intellect
and a bit more depth. And we like that about you.
</p>
<p data-block-key="berjf">
So, since we seem to be getting along, you might want to get to know
<a>
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Pro ideas
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Take Intel. Back in October 2024, one of our analysts called it “ridiculously undervalued” and too important to fail. The stock has
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</p>
<p data-block-key="bd52r">
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Take a look at Pro
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<td align="left" class="s32">
<div class="s17">
<mj-raw>
<span class="s18">
🖋️
</span>
<span class="s19">
Quote of the day
</span>
</mj-raw>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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</td></tr></table>
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<![endif]-->
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<tbody>
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="s4" role="presentation" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s5">
<div class="s31">
<strong>
"The strength of the team is each individual member. The strength of each member is the team."
</strong>
– Phil Jackson (an American basketball coach)
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="s4" role="presentation" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s32">
<div class="s17">
<mj-raw>
<span class="s18">
🎯
</span>
<span class="s19">
On Our Radar
</span>
</mj-raw>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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<![endif]-->
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<![endif]-->
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<tbody>
<tr>
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<table role="presentation" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tr><td class="" style="vertical-align:top;width:568px;">
<![endif]-->
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s30">
<div class="s31">
<p data-block-key="aaghi">
<b>
1. The Desire Path.
</b>
The running race that’s 35 kilometers of
<a>
making it up as you go along
</a>
.
</p>
<p data-block-key="c3dnh">
<b>
2. Haglund’s deformity.
</b>
Why some players are
<a>
cutting the heels
</a>
off their cleats at the World Cup.
</p>
<p data-block-key="d8bof">
<b>
3. How rude.
</b>
AI has the potential to
<a>
make us all jerks
</a>
.
</p>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</td>
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</tbody>
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<![endif]-->
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<tbody>
<tr>
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<![endif]-->
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="s4" role="presentation" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s5">
<div class="s31">
Stay classy, Sarah 😉 This issue of the Daily Brief was curated by
<a class="s39">
Theodora
</a>
,
<a class="s39">
Russell
</a>
, and
<a class="s39">
Linda
</a>
. Got an idea? A question?
<a>
Get in touch
</a>
.
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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<![endif]-->
</td>
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<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="" role="presentation" style="width:600px;" width="600"><tr><td style="line-height:0px;font-size:0px;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;">
<![endif]-->
<div class="s0">
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="s1" role="presentation">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="direction:ltr;font-size:0px;padding:0 16px;text-align:center;">
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<table role="presentation" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tr><td class="" width="600px">
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<![endif]-->
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<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="s15">
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<table role="presentation" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tr><td class="" style="vertical-align:top;width:568px;">
<![endif]-->
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="s4" role="presentation" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s32">
<div class="s17">
<mj-raw>
<span class="s18">
💌
</span>
<span class="s19">
THAT WAS GREAT FOR US... HOW WAS IT FOR YOU?
</span>
</mj-raw>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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<![endif]-->
</td>
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<![endif]-->
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<tbody>
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<td align="center" class="s40">
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<span aria-hidden="true" role="img">
🔥
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Hot stuff
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