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   Climate: Early-Onset El Niño
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              A graduate student collecting coral samples off Christmas Island, in Kiribati, this month. Coral bleaching was widespread in the area during the last strong El Niño.
             </span>
             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
              Christopher Peters/Florida State University
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        <h1 style="color:#000;font:400 30px/37.5px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 12px">
         <span>
          Early-Onset El Niño
         </span>
        </h1>
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             <p style="font:13px/18px arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:.2px;color:#000;font:600 13px/18px arial,sans-serif;margin-bottom:3px">
              By
              <a class="css-nanfcg" style="-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;border-bottom:1px solid #ccc;color:inherit">
               David Gelles
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          About 1,000 miles south of Hawaii, the first signs of El Niño have come to Kiribati, an island nation in the central Pacific Ocean.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Alyssa Atwood, an associate professor in the Earth, ocean and atmospheric science department at Florida State University, is there now, deyesploying sensors to monitor ocean heat and salinity, and to track the bleaching of the its magnificent coral reefs.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Already, around Christmas Island, one of this nation’s 33 atolls and islands, the ocean surface temperature is 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, warmer than usual for this time of year, compared with the previous 30 years. And as much as 10 percent of the corals appeared bleached in a series of dives over the past few days, Atwood said.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Bleaching occurs when corals become so stressed that they lose the symbiotic algae they need to survive. Bleached corals can recover, but if the surrounding water stays too hot for too long, they die.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “We expect this to get worse and worse and worse until the end of this year,” she said. “This is just the tip of the iceberg.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          That’s because the El Niño event that’s underway is expected to be one of the strongest ever recorded, and it has not yet peaked.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          El Niño is a naturally occurring surge of heat in the Pacific Ocean that usually reaches maximum intensity between December and February. It happens every two to seven years, and it typically spikes global temperatures and scrambles weather patterns around the world.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          This year’s event is already strong and having big effects, nudging up global temperatures and causing dry spells and crop failures on multiple continents, my colleagues Raymond Zhong and Chico Harlan
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          wrote in an article this week
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <h3 style="color:#000;font:400 20px/27.5px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span style="font-weight:700">
          What we know and what we don’t
         </span>
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            <span class="css-14cus5q" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;text-align:left">
             <span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
              The Parliament Hill area in northwest London this week.
             </span>
             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
              Henry Nicholls/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          While scientists expect this to be a very strong El Niño, it’s still not entirely clear whether man-made global warming is intensifying the phenomenon.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The El Niños of the past few decades have been comparably strong, Ray and Chico wrote. But the variables that combine to create an El Niño are complex, and some experts argue that the recent trend could just be a random signal.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          What is clear is that El Niño’s burst of heat, boosted by climate change or not, is arriving at a moment when global temperatures are already at record highs.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          As Eric Niiler wrote in a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          separate article this year
         </a>
         <span>
          , the past 11 years have been the hottest since record-keeping began. Last year was either the second or third hottest on record, depending on which record is used, he reported, with global average temperatures 1.43 degrees Celsius higher than preindustrial levels. The year 2024 was the hottest, at 1.55 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          All that heat has led to more intense storms, floods, fires and droughts. All of which could become even more intense in the months ahead.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          El Niño will magnify those conditions in some regions and could lift global temperatures to record levels next year, as the heat from the Pacific spreads around the world, Ray and Chico wrote.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Atwood said she hoped the data she was gathering in Kiribati could help scientists understand how man-made global warming is affecting El Niños.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “We don’t know what the human fingerprint is on these systems, which is why we have to be out here actually measuring these things in real time, documenting them as much as possible,” she said. “Because these things are happening now on top of background warming in the climate system.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <h3 style="color:#000;font:400 20px/27.5px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span style="font-weight:700">
          What we’re seeing around the world
         </span>
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              Members of Alyssa Atwood’s research team en route to a dive site.
             </span>
             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
              Neda Mobasher/Florida State University
             </span>
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          In Kiribati, El Niño appears to be taking a toll already. Christmas Island, usually very dry this time of year, has been battered by heavy rainfall in recent weeks. During the last very strong El Niño, from 2015 to 2016, heavy rains in the country led to an uptick in mosquito-borne illnesses, including dengue fever and chikungunya virus.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          And back then, more than 90 percent of the coral reef around Christmas Island was bleached. The good news, Atwood said, is that much of that coral has recovered over the past decade.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          In Panama, normally one of the wettest countries on Earth, some areas haven’t had a major storm since early May. Ethiopia’s fertile highlands are enduring one of their driest summer stretches in four decades. And India had its fifth-driest June since the country’s modern rain records began in 1901.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “It affects weather all around the globe,” Atwood said. “And the bigger the event, the more pronounced those effects get.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          In the coming months, we’ll bring you regular updates about how this event is reshaping the globe and what the science tells us about the climate connection. So stay tuned.
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              The Arctic is warming faster than any other region on Earth.
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              Olivier Morin/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
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          Trump administration kills a flagship Arctic report
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          The Trump administration has pulled federal funding for an annual report on the changing environment of the Arctic, where rapid warming is upending ecosystems, reconfiguring trade routes and scrambling geopolitics.
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          The assessment, known as the Arctic Report Card, drew on the expertise of hundreds of scientists and other specialists around the world. Every year for the past two decades, it provided a checkup on the health of the region, which is heating up at several times the pace of the rest of the globe. Sea ice has dwindled. Snow cover has shrunk. Glaciers are thinning out. Tundra vegetation has grown more abundant, leading to wildfires that burn through huge areas. —
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          Raymond Zhong
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                  Europeans, Braced for 5th Heat Wave of 2026, Have Had Enough
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                  With temperatures set to soar as high as 109 degrees Fahrenheit (43 Celsius) this week, Europeans and tourists say that summer in Europe has lost its appeal.
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                  Kryssi Whitehurst
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