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DealBook: D.C. corporate chaos
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<div style="width:100%;margin-bottom:31px;font:12px/12px georgia,serif">
June 30, 2026
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Good morning. Andrew here.
</span>
<span>
Over the last three decades, I’ve interviewed dozens of commissioners from major U.S. agencies, including the F.T.C., the F.C.C. and the S.E.C. Historically, these bodies promoted robust internal debates, anchored by independent commissioners who served as vital checks and balances. That era effectively ended yesterday.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The Supreme Court has declared that executive power gives the president the authority to reshape these agencies at will. Many are framing this as a short-term political win for President Trump, viewing it through a narrow, partisan lens. That misses the bigger picture: This will persist long after his administration.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The real casualty here is economic growth. Without internal pushback or regulatory continuity between administrations, businesses face an era of unpredictable policy whiplash — making long-term strategic planning much more complicated. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Sign up here.
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<span>
)
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<span class="css-14cus5q" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;text-align:left">
<span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
The Supreme Court has largely amplified presidential power, potentially making it harder for businesses to navigate Washington.
</span>
<span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
Tierney L. Cross for The New York Times
</span>
</span>
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<td height="20">
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</table>
<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
What the presidency won yesterday
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Many defenders of the Fed breathed a sigh of relief when the Supreme Court rejected
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
President Trump’s
</span>
<span>
bid to immediately fire
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Lisa Cook
</span>
<span>
as a governor of the central bank.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
But in a related ruling, the high court
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
expanded presidential control
</a>
<span>
over nominally independent federal agencies. And Cook may enjoy only a short respite from Trump’s legal attacks.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The Supreme Court did affirm the Fed’s political independence.
</span>
<span>
From the
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
5-4 majority decision
</a>
<span>
:
</span>
</p>
<p class="css-14jlz04" style="font:17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 50px 15px;color:#666">
<span>
What matters is that the Federal Reserve remains consistent with the principles that underpin the First and Second Banks — namely, that monetary policy should not be subject to political interference.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:20px 0 15px">
<span>
The majority said that Trump’s efforts to fire Cook — which he based on unsubstantiated allegations of mortgage fraud that haven’t led to legal charges — denied her any ability to formally challenge the accusations.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
On the surface, that’s good news for Kevin Warsh,
</span>
<span>
the new Fed chair. In his first news conference as the institution’s leader, Warsh
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
sounded hawkish on rates
</a>
<span>
, despite being nominated by a president who has explicitly called for lowering them.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
More secure political independence for the Fed would mean that
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Warsh has a freer hand
</a>
<span>
in rates policy.
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
The odds of Fed policymakers’ raising rates at their meeting in September are
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
at about 63 percent
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
But Trump can still go after Cook,
</span>
<span>
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
The Times notes
</a>
<span>
:
</span>
</p>
<p class="css-14jlz04" style="font:17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 50px 15px;color:#666">
<span>
The justices did not clearly articulate the full legal criteria that would allow Mr. Trump to fire Ms. Cook, who denies any wrongdoing and has never been charged with a crime. Nor did they wager an opinion on the exact allegations against her. And the court majority did not even prescribe the exact venue in which Ms. Cook should be allowed to respond to the allegations.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:20px 0 15px">
<span>
“It’s an invitation for more meddling,” Peter Conti-Brown, an expert on Fed governance, told The Times. He added, “This saga is not over.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
That raises the question of
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic">
how much
</span>
<span>
cover Warsh really has. Indeed, Trump,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
in a social media post
</a>
<span>
yesterday, called the decision “strictly procedural” and warned that “we will take appropriate action immediately.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Presidential power over federal agencies grew significantly yesterday.
</span>
<span>
Legal experts pointed to the Supreme Court’s affirming of the president’s ability to fire independent government regulators — despite laws and a
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
previous high court decision
</a>
<span>
that protected those officials.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
While the case specifically addressed the dismissal of
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Rebecca Kelly Slaughter
</span>
<span>
as a commissioner at the F.T.C., the ruling was widely interpreted as giving carte blanche to the president to oust officials at more than two dozen agencies that have long operated with political insulation.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
For companies, navigating federal regulators will probably get more unpredictable.
</span>
<span>
Political independence was meant to give regulatory agencies more stability across administrations.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The emerging system, experts say, means that those overseers will be more closely aligned to a president’s agenda.
</span>
</p>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td height="30">
</td>
</tr>
<td style="padding:0;font-size:0;border-top:8px solid #000">
<h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
<span>
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
</span>
</h3>
</td>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The billionaire Warren Buffett is said to pause his donations to the Gates Foundation.
</span>
<span>
He will
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
skip his regular midyear donation
</a>
<span>
while the foundation’s ties to
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Jeffrey Epstein
</span>
<span>
are reviewed by the law firm WilmerHale, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing anonymous sources. (The inquiry is expected to finish this summer.)
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Bill Gates
</span>
<span>
has faced harsh criticism for his long relationship with the sex offender since the release of the Epstein files in January.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
A Chinese businessman linked to Steve Bannon is sentenced for fraud. Guo Wengui
</span>
<span>
, who became an anti-Communist crusader after fleeing to the U.S., was
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
sentenced to 30 years
</a>
<span>
in prison for defrauding investors of hundreds of millions of dollars that he used to buy a Bugatti supercar, a Connecticut mansion and more. Elsewhere,
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Carl Rinsch
</span>
<span>
, a Hollywood director who was
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
convicted of defrauding Netflix
</a>
<span>
of $11 million, was sentenced to 30 months in prison.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Strategy, the big Bitcoin investment vehicle, makes a U-turn on crypto.
</span>
<span>
The onetime software company — whose leader,
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Michael Saylor
</span>
<span>
, once advised, “
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Never sell your Bitcoin
</a>
<span>
” — said that it would
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
raise $1.25 billion by selling Bitcoin
</a>
<span>
. The cryptocurrency has lost half its value since October, putting pressure on the company after it sold stock, convertible bonds and preferred shares to buy Bitcoin. Its shares are down 80 percent from their peak in November 2024.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
An Anthropic-backed super PAC makes a huge cash haul.
</span>
<span>
Public First Action said today that it has
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
raised $80 million to date
</a>
<span>
, including $20 million over the last 10 days. That’s despite the organization’s taking a black eye from the defeat of
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Alex Bores
</span>
<span>
, a Democratic congressional candidate who helped pass artificial-intelligence safety regulations in New York, in the state’s primaries last week.
</span>
</p>
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<td style="text-align:center">
<img alt="SpaceX executives, employees and investors (some of whom are dressed in astronaut costumes) gathered behind a white lectern featuring the Nasdaq logo, with SpaceX's ticker and "NasdaqListed" written on a sign behind theme. " class="css-18ei5jy" height="333" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2026%252F06%252F30%252Fmultimedia%252F30db-spacex-vqtl%252F30db-spacex-vqtl-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODI4MjEzNzIuMTc2ODU0MX0:1weXHQ:vSpfPoP9EMM8xk3Pif8FnsF5zJo_Y9a3xkFshxfeqSk" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:8px" width="500"/>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="css-1b9cqt1" style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-bottom:15px;line-height:14px">
<span class="css-14cus5q" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;text-align:left">
<span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
The SpaceX I.P.O. was just one of several blockbuster transactions announced in the first half of 2026.
</span>
<span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
Andres Kudacki for The New York Times
</span>
</span>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
A big half-year for deals
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
For deal-making, 2026 is proving to be a banner year — and it’s only halfway through.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
There were obvious blockbusters, notably SpaceX’s record-shattering mega-I.P.O. and NextEra Energy’s announced $119.7 billion takeover of Dominion Energy.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The boom is a sign that, despite geopolitical upheaval this year, Wall Street has been able to land big transactions. Here’s what to know about the flurry of deals that have defined 2026.
</span>
</p>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center">
<img alt="A bar chart showing the value of global M.&.A. deals from 2016 to 2026, with bars showing Jan. 1 to June 29 of each year, and a line chart showing the number of global M.&.A. deals from 2016 to 2026, with lines showing Jan. 1 to June 29 of each year." class="css-18ei5jy" height="625" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2026%252F06%252F29%252Fbusiness%252Fdealbook%252F30-db-ma-deals%252FoakImage-1782765801296-jumbo.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODI4MjEzNzIuMTc3MDE4NH0:1weXHQ:4G91UPqYCfm7Gxj6_S7AiKPzyLHpfIJR9EnOCaBZR8c" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:8px" width="500"/>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="css-1b9cqt1" style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-bottom:15px;line-height:14px">
<span class="css-14cus5q" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;text-align:left">
<span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
Source: LSEG.
</span>
<span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
Christine Zhang/The New York Times
</span>
</span>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Mergers
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The value of deals announced worldwide so far this year hit $2.77 trillion as of June 29, according to LSEG, up 48 percent year-on-year and the highest amount of M.&A. during the first half of a year since 2002.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
That’s thanks to a surge in giant transactions: Forty-seven deals, collectively worth about $1.3 trillion, were valued at $10 billion or more, up an astounding 62 percent year-on-year. (The actual number of deals, however, was 23,975, down 9 percent year-on-year and a third consecutive drop.)
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Contributing to the mega-M.&A. numbers:
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Deal makers say that ebullient stock markets have fortified companies’ war chests, while their underlying businesses are performing strongly.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Regulators’ greater acceptance of M.&A. has also encouraged boardrooms to make riskier bets, like NextEra’s bid for Dominion. “Many corporates perceive they have a window in which to attempt to affect something transformational,”
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Matt McClure
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
, a global co-head of investment banking at Goldman Sachs, told DealBook.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Investors are still pushing companies to focus on corporate clarity, as shown by Comcast’s announced breakup. “Boards are thinking as hard about what they shouldn’t own as what they should, with investors increasingly rewarding businesses that have a more focused strategic story,”
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Charlie Bouckaert
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
, the global head of M.&A. at JPMorgan Chase, told DealBook.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center">
<img alt="A bar chart showing the proceeds of global I.P.O.s from 2016 to 2026, with bars showing Jan. 1 to June 29 of each year, and a line chart showing the number of global I.P.O.s from 2016 to 2026, with lines showing Jan. 1 to June 29 of each year." class="css-18ei5jy" height="625" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2026%252F06%252F29%252Fbusiness%252Fdealbook%252F30-db-ipos%252FoakImage-1782765945428-jumbo.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODI4MjEzNzIuMTc3MTk2N30:1weXHQ:kSF3ZcnNib1WvXceF2Y8Y3xmA_X2YzpoCjFyBXRtsU0" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:8px" width="500"/>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="css-1b9cqt1" style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-bottom:15px;line-height:14px">
<span class="css-14cus5q" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;text-align:left">
<span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
Source: LSEG.
</span>
<span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
Christine Zhang/The New York Times
</span>
</span>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
I.P.O.s
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
About $169 billion worth of initial offerings have been carried out worldwide so far this year, up an eye-popping 246 percent year-on-year, and the second-best first-half performance since 2021.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
As with M.&A., the actual number of I.P.O.s fell year-on-year to 514 offerings, down for a fourth year in a row.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
This year may have more gigantic I.P.O.s in store, including the possible market debut of Anthropic. (The Times reported that OpenAI now appears likely to stage its I.P.O. next year rather than in 2026 — the prospect of which was enough to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
dent the stocks of its planned lead underwriters
</a>
<span>
, Goldman and Morgan Stanley.)
</span>
</p>
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<tbody>
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</td>
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<table width="100%">
<tbody>
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<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
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<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
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<img alt='A yellow sign is shown that says "Now Hiring."' class="css-18ei5jy" height="333" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2026%252F06%252F30%252Fmultimedia%252F30db-ai-jobgrowth-cztb%252F30db-ai-jobgrowth-cztb-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODI4MjEzNzIuMTc3ODE3fQ:1weXHQ:d7twepjixejELMfUN6_mgAQVRxCRtp8z_R7yu97bvgs" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:8px" width="500"/>
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<td class="css-1b9cqt1" style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-bottom:15px;line-height:14px">
<span class="css-14cus5q" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;text-align:left">
<span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
A new study found that companies spending heavily on A.I. had increased their head count.
</span>
<span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times
</span>
</span>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
A.I. could actually be creating more jobs
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
What if artificial intelligence leads to more, not fewer, jobs for human employees? A paper released today by Ramp, a financial start-up, and Revelio Labs, a work force data firm, provides evidence that the technology may be doing so, at least for white-collar positions.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The study found a 10 percent increase in head count growth over a two-year period among the top third of A.I. spenders in the survey, Niko Gallogly reports.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Entry-level jobs had the biggest gains.
</span>
<span>
The findings run counter to the idea, popularized by some A.I. executives, that the technology
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
could lead to a jobs-pocalypse
</a>
<span>
. Entry-level positions grew by 12 percent among high A.I.-adopting firms.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Why? Demand for young talent is “intuitive,” Ara Kharazian, Ramp’s lead economist and an author of the paper, told DealBook. Companies are looking to leverage the unique skill set of recent grads who are part of the first
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
A.I.-native
</a>
<span>
generation, he said.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
More crucial findings from the study,
</span>
<span>
which compared trends in spending and hiring data from 22,000 Ramp customers:
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Firms that spent only moderately on A.I. did not see head count growth. That may be because the more expensive A.I. systems, like coding agents, drive bigger productivity gains that lead to more hiring, the authors hypothesized.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Hiring growth took place across job categories. Sales positions saw the biggest gains, followed by administrative and engineering roles.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
While the paper found that A.I. spending correlated with an increase in head count,
</span>
<span>
it did not prove that A.I. was the cause of that growth. Other factors, like a surge in demand for a company’s product, could also lead to an uptick in hiring.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Contradictory conclusions:
</span>
<span>
The paper’s findings run counter to a
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
prominent labor study
</a>
<span>
by the Stanford economist Erik Brynjolfsson. Using data from the payroll software provider ADP, Brynjolfsson found a 16 percent drop in employment for workers aged 22 to 25 in A.I.-exposed sectors since the release of ChatGPT.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Ramp’s results are also not in sync with research by the Yale Budget Lab.
</span>
<span>
“We don’t yet see any clear evidence from our analysis that A.I. is disrupting the labor market,” Ryan Nunn, the lab’s director of research, told DealBook.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
So far, studies tallying the economic effect of A.I. on the labor market range from “positive to negative to everything in between,” Nunn said.
</span>
</p>
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<h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
<span>
THE SPEED READ
</span>
</h3>
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Deals
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
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<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Rocket Lab agreed to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
buy Iridium Communications
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
, in a deal that values the satellite communications company at $8 billion, as it seeks to compete with Amazon and
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Elon Musk’s
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Starlink. (Bloomberg)
</span>
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<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
“Elliott’s Acolytes: How
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Paul Singer’s
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Hedge Fund
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Became a Spinout Factory
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” (FT)
</span>
</li>
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Pro-Trump conservative groups are reportedly preparing to push the F.C.C. and its chair,
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Brendan Carr
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, to
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revoke Disney’s broadcast TV licenses
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. (Politico)
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from a $16 billion rail tunnel project to connect New York and New Jersey. (WSJ)
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Best of the rest
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$180,000 Tech Salaries
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Are No Longer Enough” (NYT)
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hybrid vehicles are soaring
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5 days, 9 hours ago - nytdirect@nytimes.com
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