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   DealBook: The meltdown continues
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   Also, affordability weighs on Washington and Wall Street.
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             <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline" title="DealBook">
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             November 21, 2025
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          Good morning. Andrew here. The stock market has been on a roller coaster this week, despite Nvidia’s better-than-expected earnings. What’s driving the disconnect? The truth is that inflation remains persistent (which makes the Fed reluctant to lower interest rates). But at the same time, unemployment appears to be climbing (in which case, you’d want the Fed to lower rates).
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          All the while, stock valuations are near record highs — leading some on Wall Street to say that a comedown could be due. On Main Street, though, the watchword of the moment is “affordability.” We get into all of this below along with some A.I. hacks that a C.E.O. uses to get feedback about his own work. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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          Sign up here.
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          )
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             The recent sell-off in crypto and tech stocks has rattled global markets.
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            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Brendan McDermid/Reuters
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          “Fallen apart”
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        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Buckle up. Global stocks and Bitcoin are
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          falling again
         </a>
         <span>
          today as Wall Street tries to make sense of the volatile trading that has rocked the markets in recent days.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Market veterans see several potential catalysts, including doubts about the Fed’s interest rate policy, jitters about artificial intelligence and spillover from a crypto sell-off. Some analysts are also
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          growing antsy
         </a>
         <span>
          that strong quarterly results from Walmart and Nvidia failed to restore market calm.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The latest:
         </span>
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                Stocks in Asia and Europe are down broadly.
               </span>
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                S&amp;P 500 futures point to a choppy open. That’s after the benchmark index suffered its biggest intraday swing yesterday — a peak-to-trough drop of roughly 3.5 percent — since April, when President Trump’s tariffs announcement triggered a major sell-off.
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The Nasdaq, which sank 2.2 percent yesterday, is on pace for its worst week since April.
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The CBOE Volatility Index, or so-called VIX fear gauge, also spiked to April levels.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Bitcoin briefly
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                fell below $82,000
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , extending its bear-market slump.
               </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Are tech valuation jitters to blame?
         </span>
         <span>
          Nvidia’s stellar results have so far failed to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          dispel investor concerns
         </a>
         <span>
          over Big Tech’s lavish spending on A.I. On Wednesday, Jensen Huang, the company’s C.E.O., pushed back firmly against bubble talk during a call with analysts.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Privately he grumbled that “
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          the market did not appreciate
         </a>
         <span>
          ” what Nvidia had just pulled off.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “If we delivered a bad quarter, if we’re off by just a hair, if it just looked a little bit creaky, the whole world would’ve fallen apart,” Huang told employees yesterday, according to Business Insider. (But Cathie Wood, the prominently bullish tech investor, cheered the results, with one of her funds
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          buying a slug of Nvidia shares
         </a>
         <span>
          yesterday.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Is the Fed also a factor?
         </span>
         <span>
          Anna Paulson, the Philadelphia Fed president, was the latest central bank official
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          to caution against
         </a>
         <span>
          bold action on interest rates.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Futures traders currently see just a 33-percent chance that the Fed would cut rates next month, fueling investor fears that higher-for-longer borrowing costs could dampen appetite for risky assets.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Is crypto playing a role, too?
         </span>
         <span>
          Bitcoin is on an 11-day losing streak and has fallen more than 30 percent in the past six weeks. Given the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          record level of leveraged trading
         </a>
         <span>
          in digital tokens, some market watchers are worrying that investors are being forced to sell other assets, like stocks, to cover crypto margin calls.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “I think crypto is a canary in the coal mine,” Salman Ahmed, the global head of macro strategy at Fidelity, told Bloomberg Television this morning.
         </span>
        </p>
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </span>
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         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          U.S. banks are said to have scrapped a $20 billion bailout plan for Argentina.
         </span>
         <span>
          JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup have dropped an effort to create an
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          enormous loan for the embattled South American nation
         </a>
         <span>
          as part of the Trump administration’s efforts to help President Javier Milei, according to The Wall Street Journal. The banks are now reportedly weighing a $5 billion repurchase plan for Argentina to exchange investments for dollars and later issue bonds to repay the lenders.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The Trump administration reportedly pushed Davos organizers to change their agenda.
         </span>
         <span>
          President Trump agreed to attend the World Economic Forum in person in January — after organizers made assurances that
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          certain issues wouldn’t be featured prominently
         </a>
         <span>
          at the gathering of political and business leaders, according to The Financial Times. Among the topics that U.S. officials asked to be played down or avoided: female empowerment, climate change and international development finance.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          First-round takeover bids for Warner Bros. Discovery are in.
         </span>
         <span>
          Netflix, Paramount and Comcast all
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          submitted offers for the media giant
         </a>
         <span>
          by a deadline yesterday, The Times reports. Paramount emphasized it wanted to buy all of Warner Bros. to create a new entertainment colossus; Comcast is seeking to buy Warner Bros.’ Hollywood studio and combine it with Universal, which it owns; and Netflix has made an unusual pledge to continue releasing Warner Bros. movies theatrically.
         </span>
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          The economy’s affordability albatross
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          For politicians and business executives alike, the message of the times can be summed up in one word: affordability.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          It is the topic that has dominated the White House’s economic policies and messaging since Democrats scored unexpectedly big gains in elections earlier this month. (It’s also expected to be a major topic of today’s scheduled meeting between
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          President Trump and Zohran Mamdani
         </a>
         <span>
          , New York City’s mayor-elect.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          It’s also weighing heavily on consumer-facing companies.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Signs of the times:
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
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             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Target’s chief commercial officer, Rick Gomez, mentioned “affordability” four times in his opening remarks during the retailer’s earnings call this week. “Sentiment is at a three-year low amid concerns about jobs, affordability and tariffs,” he told analysts, noting that the company had lowered its prices on “thousands” of foods and other items.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Doug McMillon, Walmart’s departing C.E.O., told analysts yesterday that “lower-income families have been under additional pressure of late.”
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                John David Rainey, Walmart’s C.F.O., put things starkly: The difference in wage growth between high- and low-income households last month, he said, “was as large as it’s been in almost a decade.”
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Data from Bank of America published this month showed that 29 percent of lower-income households were now
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                living paycheck to paycheck
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                .
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Consumer sentiment dropped nearly 30 percent
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                year-on-year earlier this month, according to preliminary survey data from the University of Michigan. (Updated results are due out this morning.)
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Even higher-income households are making adjustments.
         </span>
         <span>
          They’re feeling more confident than their less-affluent counterparts. The University of Michigan researchers found that sentiment among the top third of consumers, as determined by the size of their stock holdings, went up 11 percent between October and November.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But McMillon noted that upper- and middle-income households were driving Walmart’s growth, and that the retailer will “continue to benefit from higher-income families choosing to shop with us more often.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          How much longer will affordability loom over Trump’s domestic policy agenda?
         </span>
         <span>
          The president has
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          already made moves
         </a>
         <span>
          , such as lowering tariffs on some food items, to address Americans’ affordability concerns.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But one of his most prominent recent promises — $2,000 tariff “dividend checks” to be sent to Americans — may face longer odds of becoming reality, after the Congressional Budget Office found that his levies will reduce deficits by
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          $1 trillion less than previously estimated
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          And companies warned that they remained on guard for price-increase drivers. McMillon told analysts yesterday that Walmart would “continue working to resist the upward pressure on our cost of goods.”
         </span>
        </p>
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          In the family
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Whether it be through
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          crypto or real estate deals
         </a>
         <span>
          , the Trump family has had a banner year in business since Donald Trump became president in January.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Now The Times has found that the family of Howard Lutnick, the Commerce secretary, has experienced a similar boom in deals.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          The investigation
         </a>
         <span>
          focuses on the secretary’s sons, Kyle and Brandon, who have profited from a series of projects that their father has boosted during his role as a federal official.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          There was no evidence that Lutnick had intervened in policy discussions
         </span>
         <span>
          with the intention of driving business to his family, The Times found. But as he promoted one top administration priority — the construction of artificial intelligence data centers — business has flowed to Newmark Group, a real estate firm controlled by Cantor Fitzgerald where Lutnick was the C.E.O. until this year.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The deal-making from Washington has also drawn in at least one major Republican donor and U.S. trading partners.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          From the report:
         </span>
        </p>
        <p class="css-14jlz04" style="font:17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 50px 15px;color:#666">
         <span>
          In that role, Mr. Lutnick has twisted the arms of American allies, dangling policy favors in exchange for investments in U.S. industrial projects. At times, these tactics have created opportunities for his family’s clients to gain access to much-needed foreign capital, The Times found.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p class="css-14jlz04" style="font:17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 50px 15px;color:#666">
         <span>
          Mr. Lutnick, for example, demanded that the South Korean government invest billions of dollars in U.S. industry to reduce tariffs.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:20px 0 15px">
         <span>
          Newmark recently announced it had completed more than
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          $25 billion worth of data center deals
         </a>
         <span>
          in the past year, taking a fee on each transaction. “We are having our best year ever,” Brandon Lutnick said at a conference in Switzerland last month.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
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            <img alt='A blue bubble with white text that reads, "How do you use A.I.? What are your best use cases?" The bubble underneath indicates a pending response.' class="css-xsf469" height="167" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F06%252F27%252Fbusiness%252Fdb-talking-ai-new%252Fdb-talking-ai-new-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjM3Mjk5ODguNzI1MjI3Nn0:1vMQjs:dJ0q1q1T2ts_c-Rl4myv1x1xB4d3HJY2LCc2amqrGG0" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Talking A.I. with the C.E.O. of Booking.com
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          Every week, we’re asking a leader how he or she uses artificial intelligence. Glenn Fogel, who leads Booking Holdings, the parent company of brands including Booking.com, Kayak and OpenTable, told DealBook’s Sarah Kessler that A.I. helps critique his communication style. His answers have been condensed and edited.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          How do you personally use A. I.?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          If you put a recording of a presentation or meeting into an A.I. model and ask it to analyze what you could have done better, it will give you feedback. And it’s not trying to suck up to the boss. It has been very honest to me at times, and I’m glad it’s just between me and the model.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Have you given any directives to your team about what you want them to do with A. I.? I’ve talked with some C.E.O.s who, for example, have set goals for increasing productivity by a certain percentage.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Everything is so new and changing so rapidly that it’s hard to guess the future. It can be difficult to measure productivity increases, even after the fact.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          For example, we believe we are coding more efficiently. But the actual writing of the code is only one part of a developer’s job. You can ask how many lines of code are produced by each developer. But that’s probably not a good measurement, because some of the code that’s produced by an A.I. model is very verbose. And so do you now have to do more checking of the code because it is produced by a model?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          It’s not easy to pinpoint how much efficiency has really been created. We know it has. But to come back with a measurement, that is not so easy to do yet.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          What does that difficulty mean for your decision-making?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          It doesn’t inhibit us. But in our budget process, it’s more difficult. How many more developers do we think we’ll need next year? I guess the conclusion is it just requires us to be very, very agile.
         </span>
        </p>
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            <span>
             THE SPEED READ
            </span>
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         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Deals
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Abbott Laboratories agreed to
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