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   DealBook: Trump’s Tehran TACO?
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   Also, Jefferies may draw a takeover bid.
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             March 24, 2026
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         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Good morning. Andrew here.
         </span>
         <span>
          About 24 years ago, I flew to Minneapolis to report on what was then the biggest hostile takeover in the real estate world. David Simon, the C.E.O. of Simon Property Group, was on a mission to buy what was then known as Taubman Centers, a portfolio of the most upscale shopping malls in the country.
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Simon died on Sunday
         </a>
         <span>
          of cancer, at only 64 years old. His passing reminded me of the time we toured the Mall of America during the takeover fight, when he showed off both his charisma and his superhuman tenacity. He lost the battle for Taubman back in 2003 — but won nearly two decades later, buying a majority stake in 2020. He ultimately dominated his industry, turning his company into the largest owner of shopping malls in the nation. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Sign up here.
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          )
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            <span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
             Investors and analysts have begun to question whether President Trump can find an off-ramp to war in the Middle East.
            </span>
            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Tierney L. Cross/The New York Times
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          The rally fizzles
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Hopes for a quick resolution to the war in the Middle East are fading again.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Yesterday’s
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          relief rally
         </a>
         <span>
          has given way to choppy global trade this morning as investors try to make sense of the conflicting messages emerging from Washington and Tehran about peace talks.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          A recap:
         </span>
         <span>
          President Trump stunned markets yesterday when he posted on social media that the U.S. and Iran had begun “productive conversations” on “a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Stocks and bonds rallied. Oil prices plunged. The gains led several market watchers to question the timing of some
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          large
         </a>
         <span>
          ,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          highly profitable trades
         </a>
         <span>
          placed minutes before that post.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          But much of that hope has faded
         </span>
         <span>
          as Iranian officials have
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          denied that talks were underway
         </a>
         <span>
          . The Times reports that American officials have described the discussions as in an early stage and not substantive.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates are now
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          weighing whether to join the fight against Iran
         </a>
         <span>
          , The Wall Street Journal reports, while Israeli officials said this morning that missiles from Iran had
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          hit Tel Aviv and other parts of the country
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The latest numbers:
         </span>
        </p>
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              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, rose above $101 a barrel.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                S&amp;P 500 futures are under pressure, while the yield on 10-year Treasury notes has risen to 4.37 percent.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Expect more market volatility.
         </span>
         <span>
          Bulls see Trump’s focus on talks as a sign he has little appetite for a prolonged war. Bears, however, say this crisis is too big for Trump to resolve with a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          TACO-style pronouncement
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “Unlike the case with tariffs or Greenland, multiple stakeholders have a say in how this war ends,” Helima Croft and Christopher Louney, commodities analysts at RBC Capital Markets, wrote to investors yesterday.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Oil executives are anxious.
         </span>
         <span>
          Several have converged on Houston for the annual CERAWeek conference, the industry’s marquee event. Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas imports flow, was a hot topic.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The Hormuz effects were still “working their way around the world” and that could affect oil prices for a while because it would take time for supply disruptions to be resolved, warned
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Mike Wirth
         </a>
         <span>
          , the C.E.O. of Chevron.
         </span>
        </p>
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </span>
           </h3>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          HPE’s $14 billion acquisition of Juniper Networks faces court scrutiny.
         </span>
         <span>
          Lawyers for several Democratic state attorneys general and for Hewlett Packard Enterprise and the Justice Department
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          argued over
         </a>
         <span>
          whether an antitrust settlement that cleared the deal was corrupt. (A lawyer for the states argued that the Justice Department’s agreement was “patronage,” echoing claims by a former department official.) It’s the most significant vetting of an antitrust decision in three decades.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The Trump administration will pay TotalEnergies to stop building wind farms.
         </span>
         <span>
          In exchange for a $1 billion payment to abandon
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          plans to build wind farms
         </a>
         <span>
          off the East Coast, the company, a French energy giant,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          committed to investing a similar amount
         </a>
         <span>
          in fossil-fuel projects in Texas and elsewhere. The move continues President Trump’s push against renewable energy, even as corporate leaders like
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Larry Fink of BlackRock
         </a>
         <span>
          suggested that green energy could lighten the nation’s energy crunch.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Apollo Global Management caps withdrawals from a private credit fund.
         </span>
         <span>
          The asset management giant Apollo became the latest to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          pause redemptions
         </a>
         <span>
          , after investors tried to pull out more than twice the fund’s withdrawal threshold. The move comes as investors retreat from private credit. Separately, here’s how big banks have offered ways to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          bet against the troubled sector
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
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             <img alt="Ad" border="0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fliveintent.newyorktimesinfo.com%252Fimp%253Fs%253D1053701%2526li%253DDK%2526m%253Ddfbfebeec3e396a6cb1a8b032a80246c%2526p%253DDK_20260324%2526stpe%253Ddefault/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZsaXZlaW50ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3NzQzNTIwODUuNDcxNDgwNH0:1w5021:FFwKMN2p2luiDSga0jmzQzJqAMyCq90cUK9eJva6SKc" style="max-width:96px;margin-bottom:7px"/>
            </div>
            <span style="text-align:center">
             <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="margin:0 auto">
              <tbody>
               <tr>
                <td style="line-height:0;font-size:0">
                 <a class="css-sdwaa1" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline" tabindex="-1" target="_blank">
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                <td style="line-height:0;font-size:0">
                 <a class="css-sdwaa1" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline" tabindex="-1" target="_blank">
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            </span>
           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td style="padding-bottom:15px;border-bottom:0 solid #dcdcdc">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td height="10">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td height="8" style="background-color:#000;font-size:0;line-height:0" width="100%">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td height="20">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Deal questions now hang over Jefferies
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          A report of a potential, if seemingly tenuous, bank takeover just emerged: Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, one of Japan’s biggest banks, is studying a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          possible deal for Jefferies
         </a>
         <span>
          , according to The Financial Times, which cited unnamed sources.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The report suggests a takeover bid isn’t imminent. But it underscores how Jefferies, known on Wall Street for its risk-taking, has come under pressure recently.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The context:
         </span>
         <span>
          Jefferies has long had a reputation as one of the most aggressive banks in mainstream finance. But it has been
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          battered over the past several months
         </a>
         <span>
          by failed investments and accusations of fraud. Chief among them is its
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          exposure to First Brands
         </a>
         <span>
          , an auto-parts maker whose collapse helped ignite fears about the private credit industry.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          That has weighed heavily on the stock price of Jefferies: Its shares have fallen 33 percent over the past 12 months, taking its market value to just over $8 billion.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Sumitomo is thinking opportunistically,
         </span>
         <span>
          according to the FT. The bank has built up a 20 percent stake in Jefferies over the past four years, though kept its voting stake below 5 percent to avoid additional regulatory requirements.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The partnership is meant to help Sumitomo become a global banking giant, following the model set by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group’s alliance with Morgan Stanley: a Japanese giant’s balance sheet and a Wall Street firm’s name, know-how and connections.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Sumitomo has assembled a team to help prepare it to act in case Jefferies’ shares fall far enough to make a bid.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          What will happen next?
         </span>
         <span>
          It’s unclear whether Jefferies shareholders — including the bank’s C.E.O., Rich Handler, and other senior executives — would be willing to sell at a low price. But, the FT reports, in the long term several Sumitomo executives believe a deal is the endgame.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          The high stakes of banning sports from prediction markets
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Prediction markets are growing ever bigger, thanks in large part to sports betting. (As of this morning, bets on the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          2026 March Madness winner
         </a>
         <span>
          on Polymarket surpassed $16 million.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But a bipartisan bill in the Senate has become the latest effort to block sports wagers on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. If it succeeds, it could have significant financial consequences for the markets, Michael de la Merced writes.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The latest:
         </span>
         <span>
          Senators Adam Schiff, Democrat of California, and John Curtis, Republican of Utah, yesterday introduced the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act
         </a>
         <span>
          . It seeks to amend federal law to bar commodities exchanges — including Kalshi and Polymarket — from allowing contracts tied to a “sporting event or athletic competition.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The bill comes after moves by more than a dozen states to achieve similar ends: Nevada last week scored a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          temporary restraining order
         </a>
         <span>
          preventing Kalshi from offering contracts on sports and elections in the state. Earlier in the week, Arizona filed
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          criminal charges against Kalshi
         </a>
         <span>
          , accusing it of running an illegal gambling business.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The argument:
         </span>
         <span>
          Schiff and Curtis argued that prediction markets were essentially offering sports gambling across the country, even in states that don’t otherwise allow such wagers, with the tacit blessing of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator that oversees the industry.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “It’s time for Congress to step in and eliminate this back door which violates state consumer protections, intrudes upon tribal sovereignty and offers no public revenue,”
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Schiff said in a statement
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Kalshi has accused states of seeking to protect traditional casinos,
         </span>
         <span>
          which generate billions in tax revenue. It has also argued that because its market is a financial exchange instead of a sports book, there’s no “house” involved that weighs on payouts or influences the odds.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “They’re more worried about protecting their monopolies than protecting consumers,” Elisabeth Diana, a Kalshi spokeswoman, said in response to the latest Senate bill.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          A representative for Polymarket declined to comment to DealBook.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The potential consequences:
         </span>
         <span>
          Investors have poured serious money into Kalshi and Polymarket, betting that they will continue to grow astronomically. (Kalshi is reportedly raising new financing
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          at a $22 billion valuation
         </a>
         <span>
          — double what it was valued at in a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          fund-raising round in December
         </a>
         <span>
          .)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Kalshi had about
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          $9.6 billion in notional volume
         </a>
         <span>
          as of March 1, according to the analysis firm Dune, while Polymarket had just over $8 billion.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td height="10">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-top:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr aria-hidden="true">
           <td>
            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
             <img alt="Ad" border="0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fliveintent.newyorktimesinfo.com%252Fimp%253Fs%253D1061896%2526li%253DDK%2526m%253Ddfbfebeec3e396a6cb1a8b032a80246c%2526p%253DDK_20260324%2526stpe%253Ddefault/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZsaXZlaW50ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3NzQzNTIwODUuNDcxNzgzOX0:1w5021:_4EFLRyM_uUtKfFJx-SSGe_lHkfNs3FZ4JcKfvpIHCE" style="max-width:96px;margin-bottom:7px"/>
            </div>
            <span style="text-align:center">
             <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="margin:0 auto">
              <tbody>
               <tr>
                <td style="line-height:0;font-size:0">
                 <a class="css-sdwaa1" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline" tabindex="-1" target="_blank">
                  <img alt="Ad" border="0" class="css-63f6sn" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fliveintent.newyorktimesinfo.com%252Fimp%253Fs%253D791919%2526li%253DDK%2526m%253Ddfbfebeec3e396a6cb1a8b032a80246c%2526p%253DDK_20260324%2526stpe%253Ddefault%2526li_coord%253Ddesktop%2526collapse_width%253D600/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZsaXZlaW50ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3NzQzNTIwODUuNDcxODg2fQ:1w5021:CGvcjQAzTdzP-zQ3bxEAQWjkzIcpzFGG902eQSNl75Y" style="display:block;width:100%;max-width:600px" width="600"/>
                 </a>
                </td>
               </tr>
               <tr class="css-1npprw9" style="display:none">
                <td style="line-height:0;font-size:0">
                 <a class="css-sdwaa1" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline" tabindex="-1" target="_blank">
                  <img alt="Ad" border="0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fliveintent.newyorktimesinfo.com%252Fimp%253Fs%253D791919%2526li%253DDK%2526m%253Ddfbfebeec3e396a6cb1a8b032a80246c%2526p%253DDK_20260324%2526stpe%253Ddefault%2526li_coord%253Dmobile%2526collapse_width%253D480/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZsaXZlaW50ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3NzQzNTIwODUuNDcxOTg1OH0:1w5021:M0l5NBIqpqOoPX8pTeA5fGr7zTVa4V5FDLLDGdk0mSs" style="display:block;width:100%;max-width:480px" width="480"/>
                 </a>
                </td>
               </tr>
              </tbody>
             </table>
            </span>
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="padding-bottom:15px;border-bottom:0 solid #dcdcdc">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center">
            <img alt="A close-up of a woman's feet in high-heel shoes with purple straps and black stockings. " class="css-xsf469" height="333" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2026%252F03%252F24%252Fmultimedia%252F24db-onlyfans-jgtk%252F24db-onlyfans-jgtk-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NzQzNTIwODUuNDcyMDgxfQ:1w5021:Q7A2g9C0UlYMFWkaWRIislxIPwKMB5qrEDUqnUmD_mU" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-top:6px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:12px">
            <span class="css-1wuwhda" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:left">
             <span class="css-1hnedf7" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
              Karina, an OnlyFans creator in Ukraine, was using these heels to create erotic content for the site when photographed for The New York Times last year.
             </span>
             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
              Oksana Parafeniuk for The New York Times
             </span>
            </span>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          What happens to OnlyFans now?
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The site OnlyFans has become both a global cultural phenomenon and a wildly profitable business in the eight years since Leonid Radvinsky bought the company.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Under his leadership, the subscription platform transformed the business model of pornography by allowing sex workers — known as “creators” — to sell content directly to users.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Radvinsky’s death
         </a>
         <span>
          from cancer at 43, announced yesterday by OnlyFans, could incite a battle for control of the site, Niko Gallogly reports.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The numbers behind the business:
         </span>
         <span>
          In 2024, OnlyFans had 377 million fan accounts and 4.6 million creators. That same year, the company reported $7.2 billion in site transactions and $1.4 billion in revenue, according to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" companies_house_document.pdf="" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          its filings
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          One of the site’s most popular creators, Sophie Rain, claimed to have made
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          $100 million
         </a>
         <span>
          in the past three years.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Radvinsky had been seeking a buyer.
         </span>
         <span>
          OnlyFans was in
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          exclusive talks
         </a>
         <span>
          with the asset management firm Architect Capital this year, and had hired the investment bank Moelis &amp; Company to support the deal, according to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          The New York Post
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The deal could value the company at $5.5 billion, including debt, and give Architect Capital a 60 percent stake. Architect Capital did not respond to DealBook’s request for comment.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Previous attempts to cash out fizzled.
         </span>
         <span>
          In 2021, OnlyFans was
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          shunned by investors
         </a>
         <span>
          who deemed the platform’s ties to sex work too risky.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “This is a messy asset,” Michael Ewens, a professor at Columbia Business School focused on private equity, told DealBook. Many firms’s agreements with limited partners prohibit so-called vice investments. Still, Ewens said, there are workarounds: A firm can structure a deal to exclude investors who do not want to be exposed to it.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          How Radvinsky’s death may affect the deal remains unclear.
         </span>
         <span>
          But OnlyFans’ unusual ownership structure could make for a smoother transition. Radvinsky acquired OnlyFans’ parent company, Fenix International, in 2018. At the end of 2024, he transferred shares to a trust, according to company filings.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          A trust makes the transition of ownership “more seamless because the successor trustee just steps into the shoes of the prior trustee and they can just act right away,” Ray Madoff, an expert on taxes and trusts at Boston College Law School, told DealBook.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The financial allure is huge.
         </span>
         <span>
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                Estée Lauder is in talks to
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                acquire Puig
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                , the Spanish owner of beauty brands like Carolina Herrera and Charlotte Tilbury, in a deal that could exceed $10 billion. (FT)
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                OpenAI reportedly offered private equity partners in its proposed joint investment venture a
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                guaranteed 17.5 percent return
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                , better terms than what Anthropic, its rival, is offering. (Reuters)
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                links to the tech company Palantir
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                over its work for President Trump’s immigration crackdown. (FT)
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                Senator Elizabeth Warren pressed Jimmy Donaldson, the YouTuber known as MrBeast, to detail his company’s plans to
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               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                expand into banking
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                . (NYT)
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                The K-pop megagroup BTS’s comeback tour could
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                generate a $5.3 billion
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                spending spree. (Reuters)
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                “The Hack That Turns Trump Accounts Into
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                Multimillion-Dollar Tax-Free Nest Eggs
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                ” (WSJ)
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