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   Good decisions don't always win
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   Plus 4 more lessons for your Friday.
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          Plus 4 more lessons for your Friday. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ &amp;zwnj‌;
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              Friday, June 5, 2026
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              The highest-leverage work a 
leader does happens before any visible action. It's how they judge odds, weigh decisions, and choose where to spend energy.
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              <br/>
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              Each one points to the same discipline: getting clear on what actually moves the business before pouring energy into motion.
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                       Whether you’re commuting, cooking, walking, or winding down, Audible makes it easy to spend more time with the stories you love. Explore 
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                 <p>
                  <strong style="font-size: 18px">
                   1. Foxes outforecast hedgehogs
                  </strong>
                 </p>
                 <p>
                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   Philip Tetlock's research found a small group of forecasters who consistently beat professional intelligence analysts. 
What set them apart was a handful of sharper cognitive habits.
                  </span>
                 </p>
                 <p style="margin-left: 30px">
                  <em style="font-size: 16px">
                   "Foxes who draw on many frameworks consistently outforecast hedgehogs who filter everything through one big idea."
                  </em>
                 </p>
                 <p style="margin-left: 30px">
                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   –Tetlock,
                  </span>
                  <em style="font-size: 16px">
                   Superforecasting
                  </em>
                 </p>
                 <p>
                  <strong style="font-size: 16px">
                   What this means for leaders:
                  </strong>
                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   Replace vague descriptors such as 'likely' and 'unlikely' with 
explicit probabilities. That way, your team can plan for what they're
                  </span>
                  <em style="font-size: 16px">
                   actually
                  </em>
                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   betting against and track whether the calls hold up.
                  </span>
                 </p>
                 <p>
                  <strong style="color: var(--blue-cta-default)">
                   <a data-linktext="Read the 
full lesson →" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:var(=-blue-cta-default)" target="_blank">
                    Read the full lesson →
                   </a>
                  </strong>
                 </p>
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                 <p>
                  <strong style="font-size: 18px">
                   2. Leadership is about good matchmaking
                  </strong>
                 </p>
                 <p>
                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   Instead of asking how
                  </span>
                  <em style="font-size: 16px">
                   you'll
                  </em>
                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   do something, ask who can do it better. As leaders, we want to take everything on. That's not helpful.
                  </span>
                 </p>
                 <p>
                  <strong style="font-size: 16px">
                   What this means for leaders:
                  </strong>
                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   Audit your week for the work only you do exceptionally, then find the right person for 
everything else.
                  </span>
                 </p>
                 <p>
                  <strong style="color: var(--blue-cta-default)">
                   <a data-linktext="Read the full lesson →" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:var(=-blue-cta-default)" target="_blank">
                    Read the full lesson →
                   </a>
                  </strong>
                 </p>
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                <td align="center" colspan="1" style="width:100%;vertical-align:top;padding-top:5px;padding-bottom:5px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:14px;color:#000000">
                 <div class="ruleContent">
                  <table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border:0 #9B9B9B;height:2px;width:80%;text-align:center;color:#9B9B9B;margin:0 auto;background-color:#999999;border-left-width:0;border-right-width:0">
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                    <td style="font-size:2px;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;line-height:2px;vertical-align:top;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000">
                    </td>
                   </tr>
                  </table>
                 </div>
                </td>
               </tr>
              </tbody>
             </table>
            </td>
           </tr>
           <tr>
            <td class="td100" colspan="6" style="width:100%;vertical-align:top;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:14px;color:#000000">
             <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="email-cell-group" style="border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;table-layout:fixed">
              <colgroup>
               <col width="100%"/>
              </colgroup>
              <tbody>
               <tr>
                <td class="editor-cell-text" colspan="1" style="padding:20px;line-height:1.4;width:100%;font-size:16px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;vertical-align:top;mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
                 <p>
                  <strong style="font-size: 18px">
                   3. Urgency follows a model
                  </strong>
                 </p>
                 <p>
                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   Harvard professor John Kotter studied more than 100 organizations attempting transformation and found a common thread behind those failing: at the beginning of the change, no one felt the need for it.
                  </span>
                 </p>
                 <p>
                  <strong style="font-size: 16px">
                   What this means for leaders:
                  </strong>
                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   Ground urgency in the real opportunity (or threat) before launching change initiatives. Importantly, you
need to ground it in a way that resonates with your team.
                  </span>
                 </p>
                 <p>
                  <strong style="line-height: 22.4px; color: var(--blue-cta-default)">
                   <a data-linktext="Read the full lesson →" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:var(=-blue-cta-default)" target="_blank">
                    Read the full lesson →
                   </a>
                  </strong>
                 </p>
                </td>
               </tr>
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                 <div class="ruleContent">
                  <table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border:0 #9B9B9B;height:2px;width:80%;text-align:center;color:#9B9B9B;margin:0 auto;background-color:#999999;border-left-width:0;border-right-width:0">
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                    <td style="font-size:2px;mso-line-height-rule:exactly;line-height:2px;vertical-align:top;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000">
                    </td>
                   </tr>
                  </table>
                 </div>
                </td>
               </tr>
              </tbody>
             </table>
            </td>
           </tr>
           <tr>
            <td class="td100" colspan="6" style="width:100%;vertical-align:top;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:14px;color:#000000">
             <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="email-cell-group" style="border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;table-layout:fixed">
              <colgroup>
               <col width="100%"/>
              </colgroup>
              <tbody>
               <tr>
                <td class="editor-cell-text" colspan="1" style="padding:20px;line-height:1.4;width:100%;font-size:16px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;vertical-align:top;mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
                 <p>
                  <strong style="font-size: 18px">
                   4. Good decisions don't always win
                  </strong>
                 </p>
                 <p>
                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   You can fail despite trying, and win when you don't deserve it.
                  </span>
                 </p>
                 <p>
                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   It's simple when put that way, but it's a lesson we don't often apply to business. Poker champion turned
                  </span>
                  <span style="font-size:16px;line-height:22.4px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif">
                   behavioral strategist,
                  </span>
                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   Annie Duke, shared studies in 2018 showing 
that good outcomes don't prove sound decisions, and bad outcomes don't prove flawed ones.
                  </span>
                 </p>
                 <p>
                  <strong style="font-size: 16px">
                   What this means for leaders:
                  </strong>
                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   If fairness is important to you, ensure you're judging your team's decisions by the quality of information and reasoning available
                  </span>
                  <em style="font-size: 16px">
                   when the call was made.
                  </em>
                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   Separate this from how things happened to turn out.
                  </span>
                 </p>
                 <p>
                  <strong style="line-height: 22.4px; color: 
var(--blue-cta-default)">
                   <a data-linktext="Read the full lesson →" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:var(=-blue-cta-default)" target="_blank">
                    Read the full lesson →
                   </a>
                  </strong>
                 </p>
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             <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="email-cell-group" style="border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;table-layout:fixed">
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                 <p>
                  <strong style="font-size: 18px">
                   5. Growth starts with identity
                  </strong>
                 </p>
                 <p>
                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   In their 2023 book, Dan Sullivan and Benjamin Hardy argue that aiming for 10x growth is actually simpler than chasing 2x. Radical ambition forces a kind of clarity that modest goals don't.
                  </span>
                 </p>
                 <p style="margin-left: 30px">
                  <em style="font-size: 16px">
                   "Roughly 20% of your activities generate your most transformative results. The remaining 80%, however familiar, functions as noise."
                  </em>
                 </p>
                 <p style="margin-left: 30px">
                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   –Sullivan and Hardy,
                  </span>
                  <em style="font-size: 16px">
                   10x Is Easier Than 2x
                  </em>
                 </p>
                 <p>
                  <strong style="font-size: 16px">
                   What this means for leaders:
                  </strong>
                  <span style="font-size: 16px">
                   Set a goal big enough that incremental tweaks obviously won't reach it. This will force you to spot the few activities worth scaling and cut the rest.
                  </span>
                 </p>
                 <p>
                  <strong style="line-height: 22.4px; color: var(--blue-cta-default)">
                   <a data-linktext="Read the full lesson →" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:var(=-blue-cta-default)" target="_blank">
                    Read the full lesson →
                   </a>
                  </strong>
                 </p>
                </td>
               </tr>
              </tbody>
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            </td>
           </tr>
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                    TERMS OF SERVICE
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                   © 2026 QUARTZ MEDIA NETWORK (US), INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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3 weeks ago - leadership@e.qz.com
Good decisions don't always win
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