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   US consumer prices and the investing week ahead.
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               👋 Hi Sarah. Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead and what you might've missed last week.
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               Inflation Nation
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               US inflation numbers are ready to be the big story – but with the Federal Reserve eyeing a different, possibly more flattering, gauge, the question is whether these numbers will tell the
               <i>
                whole
               </i>
               story.
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                        🔍 The focus this week: Fingers crossed for a cold front
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6az05" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        The big question is whether the pace of consumer price increases continued to cool in July – as analysts expected – or if volatile oil prices kept things hot. See, US inflation was on its way down, falling to 3.5% in June, compared to a year ago – the first decline in five months and below forecasts of 3.8%. And July’s inflation rate
                        <i>
                         should
                        </i>
                        come a touch lower, around 3.4%, while the core rate – stripping out food and energy – is expected to be 2.5%, down from 2.6%.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="9a6dv" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        The broad inflation number – the consumer price index (CPI) – is built from more than 200 categories, which are placed into eight major groups, with housing costs the biggest, at around 44% of the basket. But one specific inflation risk that’s popping up on economists’ radar screens is higher tech prices. Rising memory prices, largely owing to AI’s insatiable demand for chips, have mostly been contained – so far. “Chipflation” still could show up and become more widespread: after all,
                        <b>
                         Apple
                        </b>
                        has already conceded that it’s going to have to raise prices on several of its products.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="edo1g" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        However low July’s numbers dip, it’s pretty much guaranteed that they’ll still be higher than the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target – and it’s why markets are pricing in an interest rate hike later this year. The new central bank chair, Kevin Warsh, has reiterated the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation back down to the 2% target.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="8dh9b" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        That said, Warsh is also considering bringing in alternative inflation measures to work alongside CPI and the personal consumption expenditure (PCE), which is the current Fed favorite. See, the PCE measures price changes across a broad range of goods and services. But at his Senate confirmation hearing back in April, Warsh said he preferred “trimmed average measures” of inflation, ones that ditch some of the highest and lowest numbers. Stripping out the outliers – which could be driven by one-time price swings – could offer a better gauge of where inflation actually is.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="e7se3" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        We’ll see. Critics, some of the Fed’s own among them, argue that a trimmed metric isn’t great. Already, there are two prominent trimmed measures published by Fed banks – one of which is the Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean PCE. The measure was slow to register the inflation spike back in 2021, though, and the Dallas Fed president said just last month that it’s omitting too many price increases to be truly accurate. (Notably, she was also one of the dissenting votes last week in the Fed’s 9-3 decision to hold interest rates steady. She voted instead for a hike.)
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="763gl" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
                        There is no set time for when Warsh will disclose the Fed’s new approach – but watch this space.
                       </p>
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                       <p data-block-key="em3g7" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        It’s built for people who want to manage their own money and outthink the market – with proven research and cutting-edge insights.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="2pqmh" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Best part: it’s been known to
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         pay for itself.
                        </a>
                        Since launch in 2024, Finimize Pro ideas have returned
                        <b>
                         32% on average
                        </b>
                        , beaten their benchmarks by
                        <b>
                         18 percentage points
                        </b>
                        , and posted a
                        <b>
                         69% hit rate
                        </b>
                        (meaning, yep, most calls made money).
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="abloc" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         <b>
                          Upgrade to Pro
                         </b>
                        </a>
                       </p>
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                    <tr>
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                      <div style="font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;;font-size:13px;line-height:1;text-align:left;color:#000000;">
                       <p class="content-box-header mb-4" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; font-weight: 900; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        📅 On the calendar
                       </p>
                       <ul style="padding: 0; margin: 0; list-style-type: disc; margin-left: 19px;">
                        <li data-block-key="gn5an" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Monday
                         </b>
                         : China inflation (July).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         Barrick Mining, AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="cacm8" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Tuesday
                         </b>
                         : US NFIB small business optimism index (July), US home sales (July).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         CoreWeave, Rigetti Computing.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="d677f" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Wednesday
                         </b>
                         : US inflation (July).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         Nebius, Cisco.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="8drii" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Thursday
                         </b>
                         : Japan business sentiment (July), Japan PPI (July), eurozone industrial production (June), US PPI (July).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         Applied Materials, JD.com.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="5jomm" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0;">
                         <b>
                          Friday
                         </b>
                         : Eurozone employment (second quarter), US retail sales (July), US Michigan consumer sentiment (August).
                        </li>
                       </ul>
                      </div>
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               <tbody>
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                  <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" width="100%">
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                      <div style="font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;;font-size:13px;line-height:1;text-align:left;color:#000000;">
                       <p class="content-box-header mb-4" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; font-weight: 900; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        👀 What you might’ve missed last week
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6z208" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        🇯🇵
                        <b>
                         Japan
                        </b>
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="3faa4" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="a3gv0" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Japan’s currency has looked undervalued for a while on some metrics, but over the last year, it’s really dipped. See, the country buys most of its crude from the Middle East. Crude is priced in greenbacks, so Japan needs to sell more yen to raise dollars to buy oil when those prices rise (as they have since the start of the Iran war). That pushes the currency lower: it hit a 40-year low against the dollar in July. So last week, Japan’s finance ministry confirmed that it had conspired with the US Treasury to
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         buy up trillions of yen
                        </a>
                        – the first time they’ve intervened together since 2011. America wasn’t just being a pal: Japan is the biggest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds, and it would have to sell a bunch of those to finance its yen purchases. That would push bond yields way up – exactly what the US doesn’t want.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="cv01b" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="11bon" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        🇺🇸
                        <b>
                         The US
                        </b>
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6jvfg" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="9prv9" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        The US monthly payrolls report is one of the clearest health checks on the American economy, and
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         July’s results
                        </a>
                        looked decidedly unwell, as it unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs. Making matters worse, June and May’s figures were revised down, wiping another 103,000 jobs off the books. The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.1%, but only because more Americans stopped looking for work. The report sent the dollar down and pushed expectations for an interest rate hike to December, from October.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="475hd" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6liru" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <b>
                         🇨🇳 China
                        </b>
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="ekdcb" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="b8b5j" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
                        Chinese startup
                        <b>
                         DeepSeek’s
                        </b>
                        AI strategy might
                        <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                         be shifting
                        </a>
                        . So far, the AI firm has offered models that rival Silicon Valley's best while charging a tiny fraction of the price – its V4 Pro is currently 25 times cheaper to run than Anthropic's flagship Fable 5. But on Thursday, the firm posted a notice warning users of “significant” upcoming price increases. It didn't provide exact numbers, but it’s a striking shift for a company whose whole brand has been built on ultra-low pricing.
                       </p>
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                    Your Finimize Analyst team
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