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Subscribed 5 years, 1 month ago
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Kimi K3, Moonshot’s AI, has instantly jumped to the upper heights of the LLM rankings along Anthropic and OpenAI.
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Hey Snackers,
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In the Fed’s July Beige Book, which provides insights about economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts, the Boston Fed highlighted that bars in Greater Boston saw "a marked
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
uptick in beer sales
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, which they attributed to the World Cup.” As Sam Adams’ parent company
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<strong>
Boston Beer
</strong>
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said, Scotland soccer fans
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
drank four times as much Boston Lager
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</a>
as its Boston Taproom usually sells.
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The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell all posted daily and weekly losses on Friday. Energy was the only sector to close in the green on Friday as oil prices rose.
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<strong>
MOONSHOT ACROSS THE BOW
</strong>
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<strong>
Is Moonshot’s Kimi K3 the next DeepSeek moment? Or is it something far different?
</strong>
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<p style="margin:0">
<strong>
Moonshot AI
</strong>
released a new AI model called Kimi K3 that it will make fully open source before the end of the month. Kimi K3 is
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
a 2.8 trillion-parameter behemoth
</strong>
</a>
that has instantly jumped to the upper heights of the LLM rankings that had previously been controlled by just
<strong>
Anthropic
</strong>
and
<strong>
OpenAI
</strong>
.
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<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
It brings to mind another moment when the pace of
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Chinese innovation stunned American investors
</strong>
</a>
and is a sign that China’s efforts to catch up to American systems are indeed working.
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
Anthropic’s head of national security policy said that the US lead over China’s labs is now down to
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
just six to nine months
</strong>
</a>
.
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
Shortly after the model reveal, Chinese leader Xi Jinping gave what amounted to a full-throated endorsement of open-source AI models that can compete with American offerings on price and was interpreted as a critique of the US’s approach to largely proprietary models.
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
As of Friday, Kimi K3 was
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
already ranked No. 9 on LLM Arena
</strong>
</a>
.
</li>
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<p style="margin:0">
<strong>
DeepSeek’s
</strong>
reveal a year and a half ago
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
rattled markets
</strong>
</a>
because it demonstrated that you could train a darn good AI model without massive investment in sophisticated, cutting-edge chips, prompting a selloff centered around
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Nvidia
</strong>
</a>
, the company that makes and sells those chips. That panic subsided once the economics of AI became a little bit more clear, and the idea that you’d need those spiffy chips for the day-to-day inference. So, what now?
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<span class="tinyMce-placeholder" style="word-break: break-word;">
THE TAKEAWAY
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<p style="margin:0;margin-bottom:16px">
China’s competing vision for the AI race is one that could very well work out great for American technology companies and the customers they sell to. The main advantage of Kimi K3 is price; it’s going for $3 per million tokens input and $15 per million tokens output, vastly cheaper than the $5 input/$25 output most Claude models are charging, and well under the $10/$50 pricing for Fable. Nothing is stopping American companies from having their daily-driver AI models be the vastly cheaper Chinese models running on American chips in American data centers. That’s one thesis for why we haven’t seen a DeepSeek-style panic.
</p>
<p style="margin:0;margin-bottom:16px">
That said, it does shake up the race, particularly for the likes of OpenAI, Anthropic, and
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
SpaceX
</strong>
</a>
, the AI labs that directly compete with these models. China has spent the past several decades taking over industries by producing things at huge volumes and cheap unit costs to kill pricier competitors.
</p>
<p style="margin:0">
You don’t need a supercomputer to infer what the playbook is here.
</p>
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ZOOM OUT
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<span class="tinyMce-placeholder" style="word-break: break-word;">
Stories we’re obsessed with
</span>
</h1>
</td>
</tr>
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<tr>
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<div style="margin-left:-20px">
<ul start="1" style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:revert">
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<strong>
World Cup showdown: Nike vs. Adidas:
</strong>
Even before kickoff yesterday,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Adidas
</strong>
</a>
had clinched the decisive marketing win over
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Nike
</strong>
</a>
, with
<a rel="noopener" style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;" target="_blank">
<strong>
Spain and Argentina both wearing Adidas kits
</strong>
</a>
. During the first week of the World Cup, Adidas saw a 16% year-on-year jump in foot traffic to its stores. Since the World Cup started, Adidas shares have risen about 5%, whereas Nike is essentially flat, as its teams, including Brazil and France, failed to reach the final.
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<strong>
How great is the great wealth transfer?
</strong>
While baby boomers stand to pass trillions of dollars to their heirs, estimates of exactly how many trillions are
<a rel="noopener" style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;" target="_blank">
<strong>
up for debate
</strong>
</a>
, with reports ranging from $36 trillion to an amount three times that much. As baby boomers live longer and spend their wealth more than previous generations (including
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
upsizing their homes
</strong>
</a>
as they age, accounting for 42% of home buyers, the largest share of any generation), it’s unclear how much of the $93 trillion of baby boomers’ wealth will get passed along.
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</td>
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</table>
</td>
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</table>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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</td>
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</tbody>
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<strong>
CHART OF THE DAY
</strong>
</span>
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</span>
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<strong>
Comparing AAPL to oranges
</strong>
</h1>
</td>
</tr>
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<p style="margin:0;margin-bottom:16px">
As a stock,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Apple
</strong>
</a>
has kept some remarkably strange bedfellows this year.
</p>
<p style="margin:0">
Most members of the Magnificent Seven — tech giants, even if they’re not all in the technology sector — tend to be strongly correlated with… other tech companies in the S&P 500. Looking at the 26-week correlation of weekly percent changes:
</p>
</div>
</td>
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<div style="margin-left:-20px">
<ul start="1" style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:revert">
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Nvidia
</strong>
</a>
is most correlated with
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Meta
</strong>
</a>
and
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Broadcom
</strong>
</a>
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Google
</strong>
</a>
is most closely tied to
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Disney
</strong>
</a>
and
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Amazon
</strong>
</a>
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Microsoft’s
</strong>
</a>
linked at the hip with
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Palantir
</strong>
</a>
and
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
ServiceNow
</strong>
</a>
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
Amazon’s moves are well synched with Broadcom and Google
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
Meta’s going up or down along with Nvidia and Amazon
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Tesla
</strong>
</a>
is most correlated to
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Interactive Brokers
</strong>
</a>
and
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Datadog
</strong>
</a>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
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<p style="margin:0">
Meanwhile, the list of Apple’s closest cousins this year is dominated by… financials, with some industrials thrown in there too:
</p>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
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<p style="margin:0">
This chart originally appeared in Friday’s edition of
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
EntryPoint
</strong>
</a>
.
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Subscribe to EntryPoint
</strong>
</a>
for more market insights, technical signals, screens, and data viz.
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Snacks Shots
</span>
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<ul start="1" style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:revert">
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<strong>
📊 Fed:
</strong>
The chances that there are no dissents at the upcoming FOMC meeting have been steadily declining, falling from 61% two weeks ago to
<strong>
</strong>
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
just 42% as of last Friday
</strong>
</a>
.*
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<strong>
🎮 GTA 6: Will we get GTA 6
</strong>
this year? Markets say probably. Given that the odds of an October or earlier release are astonishingly low, markets rate
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
an 88% chance it comes out in November
</strong>
</a>
, ahead of the holidays.
</li>
</ul>
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<p style="margin:0">
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.
</p>
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What else we're Snackin'
</span>
</h1>
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<tr>
<td class="pad" style="padding-top:5px;padding-bottom:5px;padding-left:10px;padding-right:10px">
<div style="margin-left:-20px">
<ul start="1" style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:revert">
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Meta
</strong>
</a>
is in talks to lease as much as
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
$10 billion in computing power
</strong>
</a>
to
<strong>
Anthropic
</strong>
over two years, according to reporting from The New York Times.
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Tesla’s
</strong>
</a>
newest set of wheels is a
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
$225 bike for toddlers
</strong>
</a>
.
<strong>
</strong>
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
On Friday,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Amazon’s
</strong>
</a>
self-driving car unit Zoox said that it will
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
recall its fleet of 105 autonomous vehicles
</strong>
</a>
because they may not detect heavy smoke from the Canadian wildfires shrouding Midwestern and Northeastern US states.
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="row row-10" role="presentation" style="mso-table-lspace:0;mso-table-rspace:0" width="100%">
<tbody>
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<td>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="row-content stack" role="presentation" style="mso-table-lspace:0;mso-table-rspace:0;background-color:#fff;border-radius:0;color:#000;width:600px;margin:0 auto" width="600">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="column column-1" style="mso-table-lspace:0;mso-table-rspace:0;font-weight:400;text-align:left;vertical-align:top" width="100%">
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</td>
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</table>
</td>
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</table>
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</tbody>
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<tbody>
<tr>
<td>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="row-content stack" role="presentation" style="mso-table-lspace:0;mso-table-rspace:0;background-color:#5869ff;background-size:auto;border-bottom:30px solid #fff;border-left:30px solid #fff;border-radius:10px;border-right:30px solid #fff;border-top:30px solid #fff;color:#000;width:600px;margin:0 auto" width="600">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="column column-1" style="mso-table-lspace:0;mso-table-rspace:0;font-weight:400;text-align:left;border-bottom:4px solid #5869ff;border-left:4px solid #5869ff;border-right:4px solid #5869ff;border-top:4px solid #5869ff;vertical-align:top" width="100%">
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<td class="col-pad" style="padding-bottom:15px;padding-left:25px;padding-right:25px;padding-top:15px">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="heading_block block-1" role="presentation" style="mso-table-lspace:0;mso-table-rspace:0" width="100%">
<tr>
<td align="center" class="pad" style="width:100%">
<h1 style="margin:0;color:#fff;direction:ltr;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:25px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:1.2;text-align:center;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;mso-line-height-alt:30px">
<span class="tinyMce-placeholder" style="word-break: break-word;">
Snack Fact of the Day
</span>
</h1>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="paragraph_block block-2" role="presentation" style="mso-table-lspace:0;mso-table-rspace:0;word-break:break-word" width="100%">
<tr>
<td class="pad" style="padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:10px;padding-left:40px;padding-right:40px">
<div style="color:#fff;direction:ltr;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:17px;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:0;line-height:1.2;text-align:center;mso-line-height-alt:20px">
<p style="margin:0">
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #ffffff;">
<strong>
CD sales growth outpaced vinyl in the first half of this year.
</strong>
</a>
</p>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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<tbody>
<tr>
<td>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="row-content stack" role="presentation" style="mso-table-lspace:0;mso-table-rspace:0;background-color:#fff;border-radius:0;color:#000;width:600px;margin:0 auto" width="600">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="column column-1" style="mso-table-lspace:0;mso-table-rspace:0;font-weight:400;text-align:left;vertical-align:top" width="100%">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="mso-table-lspace:0;mso-table-rspace:0" width="100%">
<tr>
<td class="col-pad" style="padding-left:25px;padding-right:25px">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="divider_block block-1" role="presentation" style="mso-table-lspace:0;mso-table-rspace:0" width="100%">
<tr>
<td align="center" class="pad" style="padding-top:25px;padding-bottom:25px">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="mso-table-lspace:0;mso-table-rspace:0" width="100%">
<tr>
<td class="divider_inner" style="font-size:1px;line-height:1px;border-top:1px solid #5869ff">
<span style="word-break: break-word;">
</span>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="heading_block block-2" role="presentation" style="mso-table-lspace:0;mso-table-rspace:0" width="100%">
<tr>
<td align="center" class="pad" style="width:100%;padding-bottom:10px">
<h1 style="margin:0;color:#5869ff;direction:ltr;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:25px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:1.2;text-align:left;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;mso-line-height-alt:30px">
<span class="tinyMce-placeholder" style="word-break: break-word;">
This Week
</span>
</h1>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="list_block block-3" role="presentation" style="mso-table-lspace:0;mso-table-rspace:0;word-break:break-word;color:#1d1d1d;direction:ltr;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:0;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;mso-line-height-alt:27px" width="100%">
<tr>
<td class="pad" style="padding-bottom:5px;padding-left:10px;padding-right:10px">
<div style="margin-left:-20px">
<ul start="1" style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:revert">
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<strong>
Monday
</strong>
:
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Domino’s
</strong>
</a>
and
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
AMC
</strong>
</a>
slated to release quarterly results ahead of the open.
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<strong>
Tuesday
</strong>
:
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
D.R. Horton
</strong>
</a>
,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
</a>
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Halliburton
</strong>
</a>
,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Northrop Grumman
</strong>
</a>
,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Hasbro
</strong>
</a>
,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
3M
</strong>
</a>
,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Schwab
</strong>
</a>
, and
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
GM
</strong>
</a>
slated to release quarterly results ahead of the open.
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Interactive Brokers
</strong>
</a>
and
<strong>
</strong>
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Capital One
</strong>
</a>
slated to release quarterly results after the close.
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<strong>
Wednesday
</strong>
:
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Philip Morris International
</strong>
</a>
<strong>
</strong>
and
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
GE Vernova
</strong>
</a>
<strong>
</strong>
slated to release quarterly results ahead of the open.
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
IBM
</strong>
</a>
,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
CSX
</strong>
</a>
,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Texas Instruments
</strong>
</a>
,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Tesla
</strong>
</a>
,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Google
</strong>
</a>
,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Crown Castle
</strong>
</a>
,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
ServiceNow
</strong>
</a>
, and
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Southwest Airlines
</strong>
</a>
slated to release quarterly results after the close.
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<strong>
Thursday
</strong>
:
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
RTX
</strong>
</a>
,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Honeywell
</strong>
</a>
,
<strong>
</strong>
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
American Airlines
</strong>
</a>
,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Lockheed Martin
</strong>
</a>
,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
PG&E Corp
</strong>
</a>
,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Cleveland-Cliffs
</strong>
</a>
,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Freeport-McMoRan
</strong>
</a>
,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
</strong>
</a>
and
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;" target="_self">
<strong>
Comcast
</strong>
</a>
slated to release quarterly results ahead of the open.
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Intel
</strong>
</a>
and
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Digital Realty
</strong>
</a>
<strong>
</strong>
slated to release quarterly results after the close.
</li>
<li aria-level="1" style="Margin:0 0 8px 0">
<strong>
Friday
</strong>
:
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
SLB
</strong>
</a>
,
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Verizon
</strong>
</a>
, and
<a style="text-decoration: underline; color: #5869ff;">
<strong>
Charter
</strong>
</a>
slated to release quarterly results ahead of the open.
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="row row-13" role="presentation" style="mso-table-lspace:0;mso-table-rspace:0" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="row-content stack" role="presentation" style="mso-table-lspace:0;mso-table-rspace:0;background-color:#fff;color:#000;width:600px;margin:0 auto" width="600">
<tbody>
<tr>
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