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Daily 2026-07-29
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="" width="100%">
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S&P 500
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<td style="font-size:12px;color:#EA3459;font-weight:500;font-family:Trispace,monospace;width:30%;vertical-align:baseline;padding:10px 0 0 0">
1.46% ▼
</td>
<td class="s22">
7,320
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="s21">
GOLD
</td>
<td class="s23">
0.46% ▲
</td>
<td class="s22">
$4,057
</td>
</tr>
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BITCOIN*
</td>
<td style="font-size:12px;color:#EA3459;font-weight:500;font-family:Trispace,monospace;width:30%;vertical-align:baseline;padding:10px 0 0 0">
0.51% ▼
</td>
<td class="s22">
$63,525
</td>
</tr>
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<td colspan="3" style="font-size:10px;font-family:Trispace,monospace;color:#7F879C;padding:0">
*24-hour change
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<td class="s19">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="" width="100%">
<tbody>
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<td align="left" class="s8">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="color:#000000;font-family:Inter,sans-serif;font-size:13px;line-height:22px;table-layout:auto;width:100%;border:none;" width="100%">
<tbody>
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<td class="s21">
FTSE 100
</td>
<td class="s23">
0.24% ▲
</td>
<td class="s22">
10,897
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="s21">
BRENT OIL
</td>
<td class="s23">
4.83% ▲
</td>
<td class="s22">
$88.15
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="s21">
US BONDS*
</td>
<td class="s23">
0.04% ▼
</td>
<td class="s22">
4.61%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" style="font-size:10px;font-family:Trispace,monospace;color:#7F879C;padding:0">
*10-year government yield
</td>
</tr>
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WALL STREET FEAR GAUGE INDEX
(
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VIX
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)
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<p data-block-key="10zqs">
<b>
💰
</b>
It was a good quarter for Microsoft – and a mixed one for Meta
</p>
<p data-block-key="cohmm">
<b>
📈 FOR PRO MEMBERS:
</b>
This model sees bitcoin moving a lot higher
</p>
<p data-block-key="6q1od">
<b>
🏦
</b>
The Fed kept interest rates steady
</p>
<p data-block-key="bvg40">
<b>
👇 Keep reading to find out more
</b>
</p>
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👀
</span>
<span class="s18">
Today's headlines
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<mj-raw>
<span class="s32">
Technically Good
</span>
</mj-raw>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" class="s5">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="s9" role="presentation">
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<img alt="Technically Good" class="s11" height="auto" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Ffinimize-img.imgix.net%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fchivas-assets.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com%252Fstatic%252Fimages%252FEditorial-290726-Earnings_1.original.png%253Fauto%253Dformat%2526fit%253Dcrop%2526h%253D600%2526ixlib%253Dpython-3.1.2%2526w%253D1200%2526s%253D0b32949f1027dedebbf7f72192d2773d/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZmaW5pbWl6ZS1pbSIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODUzNjI1NDkuNTA0MTczM30:1wpCM9:TJ1GYZ3dvRyzqIH4GlExIIwg8L1O851VeNCx8kS1tkY" width="568"/>
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<p data-block-key="kv2fg">
<b>
What’s going on here?
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="7k1re">
<b>
Microsoft
</b>
is starting to see some return on its AI investment, with strong results in Wednesday’s second-quarter earnings report – but it was a different story for
<b>
Meta.
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="ah8rn">
<b>
What does this mean?
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="4pact">
🔺 Microsoft’s revenues rose 18% over the same period last year, topping $90 billion –
better than the $88 billion expected. Its cloud computing arm Azure grew 43%, the fastest pace in four years, and paying customers for its AI assistant Copilot hit around 30 million, up 10 million from last quarter. And Microsoft only spent $41 billion on AI infrastructure, a touch lower than expected.
</p>
<p data-block-key="9dsni">
🔺 Meta’s status is more complicated: its sales reached $60.8 billion last quarter – up 28% compared to the same period last year and slightly higher than forecast.
</p>
<p data-block-key="cq595">
🔻 The worry is the future. Meta’s projecting lighter sales than expected next quarter, and it now won’t spend less than $130 billion on its AI build-out this year. That’s leaving investors wondering how it’ll see a return on its spending. Plus, Meta’s now embroiled in multiple costly legal battles in the US over its failure to protect young users…
</p>
<p data-block-key="12s8d">
<b>
Why should I care?
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="aoqsr">
<b>
<i>
The bigger picture:
</i>
</b>
<i>
Changing horses mid-race.
</i>
</p>
<p data-block-key="8qtme">
Since 2021, Microsoft has backed American AI leader
<b>
OpenAI
</b>
to the tune of $13 billion, building Copilot around it. But recently, the Clippy creator hinted that it might use a
<b>
DeepSeek
</b>
model instead – a sign that the Chinese AI startup’s cheaper offerings are closing the performance gap on US rivals.
</p>
<p data-block-key="75hbo">
▶ The AI race is shifting: if models become commodities – interchangeable, competing
mainly on price – then the “winner” won’t be the company that builds the best one. Instead, it’ll be the firm that can best turn AI
<i>
usage
</i>
into profit.
</p>
<p data-block-key="458gf">
▶ Microsoft and Meta, along with Big Tech buddies
<b>
Alphabet
</b>
and
<b>
Amazon
</b>
, have the distribution and infrastructure muscle. The question is whether their big AI spend will generate the returns needed to justify shareholders’ sky-high expectations…
</p>
</div>
</td>
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<tr>
<td align="left" style="font-size:0px;padding:10px 25px;padding-top:24px;padding-right:0;padding-left:0;word-break:break-word;">
<div style="font-family:Inter,sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-weight:bold;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;color:#000000;">
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<a>
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<div class="s29">
<p data-block-key="pr7ai">
<a>
Bitcoin and gold
</a>
are both having a tough year, and that got me thinking about JPMorgan’s “fair value”
model.
</p>
<p data-block-key="42mti">
The framework essentially benchmarks the
<a>
world’s biggest crypto
</a>
against the most trusted precious metal as a way of checking its price.
</p>
<p data-block-key="8lcda">
The
<a>
approach
</a>
– which the bank first floated back in 2022 – is far from perfect, but it’s a useful way to think about the price of a single Satoshi and how that stacks up against the market’s shiniest old-school asset.
</p>
<p data-block-key="3k9fj">
That’s today’s Insight:
<a>
what JPMorgan’s “fair value” math gets right (and wrong)
</a>
.
</p>
<p data-block-key="aakq5">
<a>
<b>
Read or listen to the Insight
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No Surprises
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<p data-block-key="2r7ye">
<b>
What’s going on here?
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="b5o1h">
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) Committee voted 9-3 in favor of holding interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% on Wednesday.
</p>
<p data-block-key="a96un">
<b>
What does this mean?
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="91nij">
The Fed has two jobs, its so-called “dual mandate” of maximizing employment and keeping prices stable. The central bank tackles both (mostly) by
adjusting interest rates. That shapes savings returns and borrowing costs – and therefore hiring, investment, and consumer spending.
</p>
<p data-block-key="3hevh">
▶ Now, US employment is holding up: June saw 57,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate drop to 4.2%. And even though core inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target, it dropped last month to 2.6%. Inflation has likely picked up since – the reignited war in Iran is pushing energy prices up again – but the impact could be temporary if a
peace deal is agreed soon. At least, that’s probably what the Fed’s hoping…
</p>
<p data-block-key="2c2ms">
⚠️ Still, markets are pricing at least one rate hike by the end of the year.
</p>
<p data-block-key="alf9h">
<b>
Why should I care?
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="bsvq2">
<b>
<i>
Zooming in:
</i>
</b>
<i>
More tea leaves.
</i>
</p>
<p data-block-key="22csn">
The Fed’s new chair has been on the job just two months, so everyone is watching him closely. And they’re not seeing much: he’s giving away less than his
predecessors did, on both future interest rates and his own policy views. So traders were left guessing more than usual ahead of this decision.
</p>
<p data-block-key="4tt5c">
<b>
<i>
The bigger picture:
</i>
</b>
<i>
Gold’s looking a little tarnished.
</i>
</p>
<p data-block-key="eggk1">
Central banks have been big gold buyers in recent years – but lately, countries that depend heavily on Middle East oil have been trimming that buying or even
<i>
selling
</i>
it to manage bigger import bills. That’s weighed
on its price.
</p>
<p data-block-key="85qc8">
⚠️ Rising energy costs also stoke inflation, pushing the Fed – and others – to keep interest rates higher for longer. And that’s bad news for gold, which doesn’t earn anything just sitting there. So for gold to shine again, both energy prices
<i>
and
</i>
inflation need to chill.
</p>
</div>
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You might also like ⇢
<a>
Gold’s Lost Some
Shine, So It’s Time To Trim The Trade
</a>
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✨
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Sarah's Digest
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<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s30">
<div class="s16">
<mj-raw>
<span class="s18">
The London Modern Investor Summit
</span>
</mj-raw>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="center" style="font-size:0px;padding:0;padding-bottom:16px;word-break:break-word;">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="s9" role="presentation">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="s10">
<a target="_blank">
<img alt="London Modern Investor Summit" class="s11" height="auto" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Ffinimize-img.imgix.net%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fchivas-assets.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com%252Fstatic%252Fimages%252FLON_MIS_26_Early_Bird_Pricing_1_week_left.original.png%253Fauto%253Dformat%2526fit%253Dclip%2526h%253DNone%2526ixlib%253Dpython-3.1.2%2526w%253D1200%2526s%253Dbaedf0f0360392d999273d2e288523dc/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZmaW5pbWl6ZS1pbSIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODUzNjI1NDkuNTA1MTI0fQ:1wpCM9:xFb3hR018c5nyO7Ahp2EgyV2XB-pfgqC6j8FmvcLzJU" width="568"/>
</a>
</td>
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</tbody>
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</td>
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<tr>
<td align="left" class="s28">
<div class="s29">
<p data-block-key="fi5u7">
<b>
London calling. And for once, it’s not to tell you your train’s been canceled.
</b>
</p>
<p data-block-key="e062">
On October 1st, we’re bringing together 400 retail investors and some of the smartest investing pros for
<a>
a proper conversation
</a>
about what’s happening in markets.
</p>
<p data-block-key="cposi">
We’ll talk about where money is moving,
what might move it next, and which opportunities are worth paying attention to
<a>
before everyone else
</a>
starts talking about them.
</p>
<p data-block-key="9qbuo">
There’ll be food, drinks, prizes, and time to meet the speakers and other guests –
<a>
glass in hand
</a>
, ideally.
</p>
<p data-block-key="31o16">
Come for the
<a>
investing ideas
</a>
. Stay because you’ve missed the sensible train home anyway.
</p>
<p data-block-key="33ool">
And don't miss out on that first-mover advantage:
<a>
early bird pricing
</a>
ends on July 31st.
</p>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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<![endif]-->
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<td align="left" class="s30">
<div class="s16">
<mj-raw>
<span class="s17">
🖋️
</span>
<span class="s18">
Quote of the day
</span>
</mj-raw>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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<![endif]-->
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<![endif]-->
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<tbody>
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<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s5">
<div class="s29">
<strong>
"Rule number one: never be number two."
</strong>
– Saweetie (an American rapper)
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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<![endif]-->
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<tbody>
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<![endif]-->
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<tbody>
<tr>
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<tr>
<td align="left" class="s30">
<div class="s16">
<mj-raw>
<span class="s17">
🎯
</span>
<span class="s18">
On Our Radar
</span>
</mj-raw>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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<![endif]-->
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<![endif]-->
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" class="s28">
<div class="s29">
<p data-block-key="aaghi">
<b>
1. “Slop face”.
</b>
The new face of Hollywood is beautiful –
<a>
and desperately boring
</a>
.
</p>
<p data-block-key="eag15">
<b>
2. Leasing with an option to buy.
</b>
Apple’s getting its gadgets into more hands with
<a>
a new rental plan
</a>
.
</p>
<p data-block-key="8be3g">
<b>
3. FIFA’s new investment plan.
</b>
To say it’s
<a>
“controversial”
</a>
is probably an understatement…
</p>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</td>
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</tbody>
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<![endif]-->
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<![endif]-->
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<tr>
<td align="left" class="s5">
<div class="s29">
Stay classy, Sarah 😉 This issue of the Daily Brief was curated by
<a class="s36">
Theodora
</a>
,
<a class="s36">
Reda
</a>
, and
<a class="s36">
Russell
</a>
. Got an idea? A question?
<a>
Get in touch
</a>
.
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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<![endif]-->
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<![endif]-->
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="s4" role="presentation" width="100%">
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<tr>
<td align="left" class="s30">
<div class="s16">
<mj-raw>
<span class="s17">
💌
</span>
<span class="s18">
THAT WAS GREAT FOR US... HOW WAS IT FOR YOU?
</span>
</mj-raw>
</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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<![endif]-->
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<![endif]-->
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<![endif]-->
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="s4" role="presentation" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="center" class="s37">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="s38" role="presentation">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#f8f9ff" class="s39" role="presentation" valign="middle">
<a class="s40" target="_blank">
<span aria-hidden="true" role="img">
🔥
</span>
Hot stuff
</a>
</td>
</tr>
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</tr>
</tbody>
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</div>
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</td><td class="" style="vertical-align:top;width:189.33333333333337px;">
<![endif]-->
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<td align="center" class="s37">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="s38" role="presentation">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="center" bgcolor="#f8f9ff" class="s39" role="presentation" valign="middle">
<a class="s40" target="_blank">
<span aria-hidden="true" role="img">
👍
</span>
Just alright
</a>
</td>
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</tbody>
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😒
</span>
...Meh
</a>
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4 days, 17 hours ago - hello@finimize.com
💻 Microsoft had it and Meta (sort of) didn't
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