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   Brew Review // Morning Brew // Update
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     The weird world of betting on what's next...
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             June 21, 2026
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            EDITOR’S NOTE
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                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  Good morning.
                 </strong>
                 If you’ve heard the word “Polymarket” more times this year than your own name, you’re not alone. Prediction markets are, quite simply,
                 <em>
                  everywhere
                 </em>
                 . They’re forming partnerships with major pro sports leagues, giving betting apps like DraftKings a scare, spoiling your favorite reality TV shows, and, well, getting some people sent to prison. Read on to become the expert at your next dinner party when someone inevitably mentions “Kalshi,” or use it as the topic of conversation at your Father’s Day celebration today to see who can predict what color tie Dad’s getting this year.
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            BETTOR DAYS
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                 The market for predictions is massive
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                  Scott Olson/Getty Images
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                 Prediction markets, which allow people to wager on the outcome of real-world events, have exploded in popularity in the past couple of years. It turns out, a lot of people were itching to bet on elections, the temperature in Kuala Lumpur, and how often Elon Musk might tweet in one week.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 Kalshi controls more than 90% of the US prediction market and has annualized revenue exceeding $1.5 billion. The growth is staggering. According to a Pew Research Center analysis of data from digital assets firm The Block, when you look at Kalshi and the other big dog, Polymarket, their combined
                 <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                  global trading volume
                 </a>
                 was:
                </p>
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                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   $4.5 billion in September 2025.
                  </span>
                 </li>
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   $24~ billion in April 2026.
                  </span>
                 </li>
                </ul>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 Like the TV at your grandparents’ house, that high level of volume is hard to ignore. Investor interest drove Kalshi’s valuation from $11 billion in December to $22 billion about six months later, per the Wall Street Journal. And Polymarket, reportedly valued at $350 million in 2024, was recently in talks to raise money at a $15 billion valuation, according to The Information.
                </p>
                <h2 style="color:#000;margin:0 0 15px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;color:#000!important">
                 Do bettors actually make any money?
                </h2>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 Kalshi and Polymarket have millions of users, but only a tiny percentage make it big. A Wall Street Journal analysis found that:
                </p>
                <ul style="margin-top:0;padding-left:30px">
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   Sixty-seven percent of Polymarket’s profits go to just 0.1% of accounts.
                  </span>
                 </li>
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   The average Polymarket user has lost between $1 and $100. The bottom 10% of users are down about $4,000 each.
                  </span>
                 </li>
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   For every Kalshi user who makes money, there are 2.9 unprofitable users, the company said.
                  </span>
                 </li>
                </ul>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  The wager gap:
                 </strong>
                 The average prediction market user
                 <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                  skews young
                 </a>
                 , and 71% are men, according to a Morning Consult study. Sports, cryptocurrency, and politics are the hottest topics, per Pew.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  The future of predictions:
                 </strong>
                 Investment firm Bernstein forecast that prediction market trading volume will hit
                 <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                  $1 trillion
                 </a>
                 (yes, with a “t”) per year by 2030.—
                 <em>
                  BC
                 </em>
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            Sponsored By Fidelity
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             <strong style="color:#000">
              3 for 1: Designed for income, growth, + tax efficiency
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           <img alt="Sponsor: Fidelity" class="sponsored-header-image" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fmorningbrew.com%252Fcdn-cgi%252Fimage%252Fwidth%253D1232%252Cformat%253Dauto%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fstorage.morningbrew.com%252Fimage%252F2026-06-16%252Fimage-4bb7bdbf588533674b72761c6bd19b3c41607965-4167x2917-png%252FFYEE_NativeAd_1000x750.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZtb3JuaW5nYnJldyIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODIwMzYyNjUuMTE1NDMwOH0:1wbF2P:fvI1PG4a9BnKkdUl6wL1M3e1-mpVreupphy6BmE_b6g" style="width:100%;max-width:670px;padding-top:15px;display:block" width="670"/>
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             Want to help boost your portfolio yield without sacrificing the opportunity for upside? Then say hello to
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              FYEE
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             , Fidelity’s Yield Enhanced Equity ETF.
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            </p>
            <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
             With its Gold Morningstar Medalist Rating
             <sup>
              TM
             </sup>
             and management by a squad of pros, FYEE is designed to
             <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
              generate income
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             , offer potential for growth, and improve your after-tax returns. As a part of its yield enhancing strategy, FYEE sells S&amp;P 500 Index call options which may receive favorable tax treatment on gains, regardless of holding period.
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             And there’s more, like commission-free investing for online trades.
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             If you’re aiming, you might as well aim for opportunity.
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              Learn more and check out the fund’s prospectus
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             .
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            IN THE KNOW
           </p>
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                <a style="color:#000;border-bottom:none;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                 The surest bet on prediction markets: insider trading
                </a>
               </p>
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              <a style="border:none;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
               <img alt="Nicolas Maduro in handcuffs" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fmorningbrew.com%252Fcdn-cgi%252Fimage%252Fwidth%253D1240%252Cformat%253Dauto%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fstorage.morningbrew.com%252Fimage%252F2026-06-18%252Fimage-ea655c48ef342dc6a88a742138f9ee6cdbd45f57-5000x3333-jpg%252FGettyImages-2254194432.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZtb3JuaW5nYnJldyIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODIwMzYyNjUuMTE1NTQzNH0:1wbF2P:LL2DWdr3B883iJBGaNEUE9IzuufGbKLf2Z1O94uvSmA" style="width:100%;max-width:670px;display:block" width="670"/>
              </a>
              <p style="margin:0;padding:0;line-height:22px">
               <span class="source" style="margin-top:5px;margin-bottom:0;padding-left:10px;line-height:14px;display:inline-block">
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                  XNY/Getty Images
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                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 Jesus returning this year is possibly the only prediction market wager that no one can exploit with insider information. That’s why platforms that aspire to harness the wisdom of the crowds to predict whether Little Joe the gorilla
                 <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                  will escape the zoo again
                 </a>
                 can’t catch a break from insider trading scandals.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 In some cases, there have been consequences for the alleged perpetrators:
                </p>
                <ul style="margin-top:0;padding-left:30px">
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   A US Army Special Forces soldier will stand trial for allegedly making
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                    $400k on Polymarket trades
                   </a>
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   using his classified knowledge about plans to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
                  </span>
                 </li>
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   A Google employee was recently charged with fraud for allegedly placing bets on Google’s most-searched terms, using his access to internal company data.
                  </span>
                 </li>
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   Kalshi fined a MrBeast editor $20k for making wagers related to his employer’s videos.
                  </span>
                 </li>
                </ul>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 But fishy trades that make experts and the public suspicious do not always result in investigations. For instance, Bloomberg reported that several well-timed Iran war wagers from multiple
                 <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                  newly opened
                 </a>
                 Polymarket accounts that seem to be connected generated $1 million in profits.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  Platforms are taking measures:
                 </strong>
                 Both Kalshi and Polymarket have fined and banned users for insider trading, and Kalshi will soon require users to share their employer information in order to make sensitive trades.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  But…
                 </strong>
                 critics say that’s not enough. A group of Democratic senators has called on the federal agency responsible for regulating prediction markets, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), to combat insider trading by limiting the types of bets allowed.
                 <em>
                  —SK
                 </em>
                </p>
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            WAIT, WHAT?
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                 ‘Will Jesus return?’ There’s a market for that
                </a>
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              <img alt="Mosaic of Jesus" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fmorningbrew.com%252Fcdn-cgi%252Fimage%252Fwidth%253D1240%252Cformat%253Dauto%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fstorage.morningbrew.com%252Fimage%252F2026-06-18%252Fimage-2e083c9da724396ec4886f5e7e42693994d80470-5616x3744-jpg%252FGettyImages-538121188.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZtb3JuaW5nYnJldyIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODIwMzYyNjUuMTE1OTQ0OX0:1wbF2P:xqbROi1yeSUaGOMt6By5wxqNgBPx6sT3gmTBatfbo2U" style="width:100%;max-width:670px;display:block" width="670"/>
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                  Getty Images
                 </em>
                </small>
               </span>
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                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 The results of sports events and elections? The winners of music and film award shows? BOR-ING. Why put money down on things like that when you can bet on the types of markets that will have your friends starting a side group chat to discuss whether they should stage an intervention?
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 Here are 10 of the weirder markets available on Kalshi and Polymarket:
                </p>
                <ul style="margin-top:0;padding-left:30px">
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   Will Jesus Christ
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                    return
                   </a>
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   before 2027?
                  </span>
                 </li>
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   Related: Will Jesus Christ return
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                    before
                   </a>
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   <em>
                    GTA 6
                   </em>
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   ?
                  </span>
                 </li>
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   Will
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   <em>
                    Avengers: Doomsday
                   </em>
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   be
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                    nominated
                   </a>
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   for the best picture Academy Award?
                  </span>
                 </li>
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   Will Jerome Powell be
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                    seen
                   </a>
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   in public this month?
                  </span>
                 </li>
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   Will Elon Musk
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                    buy
                   </a>
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   OnlyFans?
                  </span>
                 </li>
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   Will Joe Rogan
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                    join
                   </a>
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   <em>
                    60 Minutes
                   </em>
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   by June 30?
                  </span>
                 </li>
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   Will Jake Paul announce a
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                    run
                   </a>
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   for public office in 2026?
                  </span>
                 </li>
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   Will President Trump
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                    say
                   </a>
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   “gay” in June?
                  </span>
                 </li>
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   Will there be a new
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                    pandemic
                   </a>
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   in 2026?
                  </span>
                 </li>
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   Nothing
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                    ever
                   </a>
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   happens*
                  </span>
                 </li>
                </ul>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <em>
                  *If any of 13 highly unlikely things happens (one is Jeffrey Epstein still being alive) and you bet no, you win. If none of those things happen and you bet yes, you win.
                 </em>
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 Be careful, though. Many of these markets are not as straightforward as they appear. Always read the fine print.
                 <em>
                  —DL
                 </em>
                </p>
               </td>
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            Sponsored By Vuori
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            <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
             <strong style="color:#000">
              We’ll keep it short.
             </strong>
             These are some good shorts. Vuori reimagined their bestselling pants for warm weather, and thus the
             <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
              Vuori Meta™ Short was born
             </a>
             . Designed for both work and travel, their four-way-stretch, moisture-wicking shorts come in both 6″ and 8″ inseam options.
             <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
              Grab a pair here
             </a>
             .
            </p>
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            EXPLAINED
           </p>
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               <p class="h1 story-title" style="color:#333;margin-top:8px;margin-bottom:0;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:24px;font-weight:700;line-height:26px">
                <a style="color:#000;border-bottom:none;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                 Online sportsbooks vs. prediction markets
                </a>
               </p>
              </div>
             </table>
             <div class="header-image-container" style="padding-top:15px">
              <img alt="Stanley Cup Final gameplay between Carolina Hurricanes and Las Vegas Golden Knights" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fmorningbrew.com%252Fcdn-cgi%252Fimage%252Fwidth%253D1240%252Cformat%253Dauto%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fstorage.morningbrew.com%252Fimage%252F2026-06-18%252Fimage-67f99db46eac7eed4f7e3cfff5eea1a8ceec18ee-7853x5235-jpg%252FGettyImages-2280507387.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZtb3JuaW5nYnJldyIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODIwMzYyNjUuMTE2MTY1Nn0:1wbF2P:Nsbprg4bFwJ9Y3I5a84OzqzvcXc5-If1VNvukDs7I1A" style="width:100%;max-width:670px;display:block" width="670"/>
              <p style="margin:0;padding:0;line-height:22px">
               <span class="source" style="margin-top:5px;margin-bottom:0;padding-left:10px;line-height:14px;display:inline-block">
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                 <em>
                  NHL Images/Getty Images
                 </em>
                </small>
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                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 Two of the hottest ways to lose money are a bit like the twins from
                 <em>
                  The Parent Trap
                 </em>
                 : They look the same, but one is traditional (sportsbooks) and the other is more inclined to roll around in the dirt (prediction markets).
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  Sportsbooks:
                 </strong>
                 Sites like FanDuel and DraftKings are for betting on a winning team, the first player to score, and anything else game-related, from cricket to hockey. This type of wagering is typically regulated by state gambling laws, which is why it’s
                 <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                  banned
                 </a>
                 in some parts of the US but not others.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  Prediction markets:
                 </strong>
                 Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket let you
                 <del>
                  bet
                 </del>
                 trade event contracts on pretty much
                 <em>
                  anything
                 </em>
                 , from movie castings to the timing of missile strikes. There’s no “house”—so your loss is another person’s gain, and the platforms make money from fees and commissions. Unlike sportsbooks, prediction markets are
                 <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                  regulated
                 </a>
                 like oil futures under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That oversight isn’t strict enough, according to some state regulators, lawmakers, casino lobbyists, and sports leagues.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  Tension point:
                 </strong>
                 Prediction markets are encroaching on sportsbooks’ territory. Huge chunks of Polymarket’s and Kalshi’s businesses come from contracts that closely resemble wagers you’d see on DraftKings and FanDuel. Prediction markets are also available in states where sportsbooks are illegal, but many lawmakers are
                 <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                  trying
                 </a>
                 to
                 <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                  crack down
                 </a>
                 .
                 <em>
                  —ML
                 </em>
                </p>
               </td>
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            THE REVEAL
           </p>
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                <a style="color:#000;border-bottom:none;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                 Predictions markets are spoiling reality TV
                </a>
               </p>
              </div>
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              <a style="border:none;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
               <img alt="Aubry Bracco and Jeff Probst on Survivor 50" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fmorningbrew.com%252Fcdn-cgi%252Fimage%252Fwidth%253D1240%252Cformat%253Dauto%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fstorage.morningbrew.com%252Fimage%252F2026-06-18%252Fimage-92e70d565f87c80b3c5b8f2f4e919dc55c7cbd76-2682x1788-jpg%252FMBD-SundaySpecial-PredictionMarkets-RealityTV-0626.JPG/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZtb3JuaW5nYnJldyIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODIwMzYyNjUuMTE2MjgxfQ:1wbF2P:uaixDWuj-Erbfo2OpQbzdmZckxNmv2KQ7y468YEmD7E" style="width:100%;max-width:670px;display:block" width="670"/>
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               <span class="source" style="margin-top:5px;margin-bottom:0;padding-left:10px;line-height:14px;display:inline-block">
                <small>
                 <em>
                  Contestant Aubry Bracco and host Jeff Probst on ‘Survivor 50.’ CBS
                 </em>
                </small>
               </span>
              </p>
             </div>
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                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 The government wants to know: Is
                 <em>
                  The Traitors
                 </em>
                 really a game? Does
                 <em>
                  The Masked Singer
                 </em>
                 involve luck, skill, or athletic ability? And, most importantly, should you be able to bet on
                 <em>
                  Survivor
                 </em>
                 ?
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the independent government agency that regulates prediction markets,
                 <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                  announced
                 </a>
                 last week that it was seeking public comment to further define where reality game shows fall under its jurisdiction.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 And clarity is needed, because prediction markets have spoiled several high-profile reality show moments in recent months, frustrating producers and fans. Legendary
                 <em>
                  Survivor
                 </em>
                 host Jeff Probst told Variety that Kalshi and Polymarket are “incentivizing people to lie, cheat, and steal.” Insider trading could be to blame:
                </p>
                <ul style="margin-top:0;padding-left:30px">
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   Aubry Bracco, who won
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   <em>
                    Survivor 50
                   </em>
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   , had a
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                    61% chance of winning
                   </a>
                  </span>
                  <span>
                   the season before it premiered. By the time the finale aired, $32.7 million had been bet on Bracco, boosting her chances to 97%.
                  </span>
                 </li>
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   Kalshi even sent a push notification to users before the finale with the message “Survivor S50 finale TONIGHT. Aubry’s at 97% — is the island already decided?”
                  </span>
                 </li>
                 <li style="margin-bottom:10px;line-height:22px">
                  <span>
                   Kalshi said it investigated the bets and found no evidence of insider trading, which is banned on the site.
                  </span>
                 </li>
                </ul>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 Other pretaped reality shows, like
                 <em>
                  The Masked Singer
                 </em>
                 and
                 <em>
                  Next Level Chef
                 </em>
                 , had their victors correctly predicted before their finales aired.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  It’s like whack-a-mole.
                 </strong>
                 Prediction markets are reaching every corner of entertainment: Polymarket
                 <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                  partnered
                 </a>
                 with the Golden Globes earlier this year and correctly picked 26 out of the 28 winners.—
                 <em>
                  MM
                 </em>
                </p>
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            SPEEDRUN
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                <a style="color:#000;border-bottom:none;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                 A timeline of fast-moving prediction markets
                </a>
               </p>
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                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 Americans have been placing bets on presidential elections since the 1880s, but it wasn’t until 1988 when three economists at the University of Iowa decided (over lunch beers) to introduce the
                 <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                  Iowa Electronic Markets
                 </a>
                 (IEM), an early prediction market that still exists today. Other private prediction markets like InTrade popped up in the early 2000s but were shut down once they attracted too much attention.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 But prediction markets have truly taken off in the last year and a half, after the 2024 presidential election and a federal court win that cleared the way for more election contracts. The Trump administration’s loosening of regulations (and the Trump family’s own
                 <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                  investments
                 </a>
                 ) has also supercharged their adoption.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 Here’s a brief timeline of how we got here:
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  Jan. 2025:
                 </strong>
                 Donald Trump Jr. announces he is joining Kalshi as a “strategic advisor.”
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  March 2025:
                 </strong>
                 Robinhood launches a prediction market hub in its app with a Kalshi partnership.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  Aug. 2025:
                 </strong>
                 Donald Trump Jr. also joins Polymarket’s advisory board after his venture capital firm invested in the company.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  Oct. 2025:
                 </strong>
                 The NHL
                 <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                  announces
                 </a>
                 a partnership with Polymarket and Kalshi, the first major sports league partnership.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  Dec. 2025:
                 </strong>
                 Kalshi partners with CNN and
                 <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                  CNBC
                 </a>
                 .
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  Dec. 2025:
                 </strong>
                 Polymarket officially relaunches in the US after a nearly four-year ban.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  Dec. 2025:
                 </strong>
                 DraftKings, the sports betting app, launches its own prediction market.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  Jan. 2026:
                 </strong>
                 Dow Jones, the Wall Street Journal’s parent company, partners with Polymarket.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  March 2026:
                 </strong>
                 MLB announces a deal with Polymarket, becoming the largest US sports league to partner with a prediction market.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  March 2026:
                 </strong>
                 The US Senate
                 <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                  introduces
                 </a>
                 a bipartisan bill to ban prediction markets from offering sports contracts.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  April 2026:
                 </strong>
                 The CFTC sues Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to be the sole regulatory body of prediction markets. (State-level battles might head to the Supreme Court next year.)
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  April 2026:
                 </strong>
                 A federal court rules that New Jersey cannot regulate Kalshi’s federally approved contracts, giving the industry a major court victory.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <strong style="color:#000">
                  April 2026:
                 </strong>
                 The Senate unanimously approves a ban on staff members trading on prediction markets.
                 <em>
                  —MM
                 </em>
                </p>
               </td>
              </tr>
             </table>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </table>
         </td>
        </tr>
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       <!--[if !mso ]><! -- -->
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            BREW'S BEST
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              <img alt="To-Do List" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fmorningbrew.com%252Fcdn-cgi%252Fimage%252Fwidth%253D1240%252Cformat%253Dauto%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fstorage.morningbrew.com%252Fimage%252F2025-11-24%252Fimage-ff42f96869558a4ad4ab4f10936a3830dbf1d044-1350x330-png%252FMB_newsletter_banner_new.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZtb3JuaW5nYnJldyIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODIwMzYyNjUuMTE3MDEzMn0:1wbF2P:4pMHmOEIZ38bNZ3A0hi5IYll0uT5LdBLIJJnVetFCAk" style="width:100%;max-width:670px;display:block" width="670"/>
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                 <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                  <img alt="" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fem-content.zobj.net%252Fthumbs%252F120%252Fapple%252F237%252Fwhite-heavy-check-mark_2705.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZlbS1jb250ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODIwMzYyNjUuMTE3MTEwM30:1wbF2P:z3t5nVhcSDvZT0JoM1KOKhGp9Hro1DbFLEp-ZXpqoz4" style="max-width:18px" width="18"/>
                  <strong style="color:#000">
                   Play:
                  </strong>
                  <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                   Market Movers
                  </a>
                  , a free daily game from Time magazine, asks you to pick which outcomes are most likely.
                 </p>
                 <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                  <img alt="" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fem-content.zobj.net%252Fthumbs%252F120%252Fapple%252F237%252Fwhite-heavy-check-mark_2705.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZlbS1jb250ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODIwMzYyNjUuMTE3MjA0fQ:1wbF2P:kkt5rUJMwCcMvfyhadtYpA24FICEikiXb9usXASDjDo" style="max-width:18px" width="18"/>
                  <strong style="color:#000">
                   Read:
                  </strong>
                  <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                   <em>
                    Statistical Thinking for the 21st Century
                   </em>
                  </a>
                  is a free book about how to quantify reality.
                 </p>
                 <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                  <img alt="" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fem-content.zobj.net%252Fthumbs%252F120%252Fapple%252F237%252Fwhite-heavy-check-mark_2705.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZlbS1jb250ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODIwMzYyNjUuMTE3Mjk2fQ:1wbF2P:Czf4-0AOhCuOGL0z4IUVo8UGKyI3ZIiwLh1hIDXDYSE" style="max-width:18px" width="18"/>
                  <strong style="color:#000">
                   Shake:
                  </strong>
                  <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                   The Magic 8 Ball
                  </a>
                  is very online and ready to answer your questions.
                 </p>
                 <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                  <img alt="" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fem-content.zobj.net%252Fthumbs%252F120%252Fapple%252F237%252Fwhite-heavy-check-mark_2705.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZlbS1jb250ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODIwMzYyNjUuMTE3Mzg2fQ:1wbF2P:VztBFQZFZchEqRsHKAaebSIPLL4FmFITWVIibX9uaQ0" style="max-width:18px" width="18"/>
                  <strong style="color:#000">
                   Think:
                  </strong>
                  <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                   Four traits
                  </a>
                  that define the most gifted predictors.
                 </p>
                 <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                  <img alt="" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fem-content.zobj.net%252Fthumbs%252F120%252Fapple%252F237%252Fwhite-heavy-check-mark_2705.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZlbS1jb250ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODIwMzYyNjUuMTE3NDc5Nn0:1wbF2P:OZCp8ouUx1EOaG0hqA98bAGoXZI41U2keW3mbHRaIYY" style="max-width:18px" width="18"/>
                  <strong style="color:#000">
                   In memoriam:
                  </strong>
                  Pour one out for Paul the Octopus, the GOAT among animal oracles. Here’s a look back at
                  <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                   his epic World Cup predictions
                  </a>
                  .
                 </p>
                 <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                  <img alt="" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fem-content.zobj.net%252Fthumbs%252F120%252Fapple%252F237%252Fwhite-heavy-check-mark_2705.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZlbS1jb250ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODIwMzYyNjUuMTE3NTczM30:1wbF2P:-nymfy9Yi6jwoVs4otzxUIb-05YPbcrzGqwq3U4rBuo" style="max-width:18px" width="18"/>
                  <strong style="color:#000">
                   Buy:
                  </strong>
                  <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                   A notebook
                  </a>
                  to keep track of all your predictions.**
                 </p>
                 <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                  <img alt="" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fem-content.zobj.net%252Fthumbs%252F120%252Fapple%252F237%252Fwhite-heavy-check-mark_2705.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZlbS1jb250ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODIwMzYyNjUuMTE3NjY1OH0:1wbF2P:F_d75j92AgwLllk0YNyB5fBd5dLjiqgmzmDZdEl1PyE" style="max-width:18px" width="18"/>
                  <strong style="color:#000">
                   Deals are calling:
                  </strong>
                  Tello Mobile offers flexible, affordable phone plans with prices up to
                  <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                   $25/month
                  </a>
                  . Customers
                  <a class="link" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
                   get reliable nationwide 5G coverage
                  </a>
                  . It’s easy to use and easy to switch.*
                 </p>
                 <placementslot data-id="93dffcdf7faf">
                 </placementslot>
                 <placementslot data-id="b78eb1514b1b">
                 </placementslot>
                 <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                  <sup>
                   <em>
                    *A message from our sponsor. **This is a
                   </em>
                   <em>
                    product
                   </em>
                   <em>
                    recommendation
                   </em>
                   <em>
                    from our writers. When you buy through this link, Morning Brew may earn a commission.
                   </em>
                  </sup>
                 </p>
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            SHARE THE BREW
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                <a>
                 <img alt="Referrals Get Rewarded" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fcdn.sanity.io%252Fimages%252Fbl383u0v%252Fproduction%252F186d427b237afa331a96448ae17d5a27b6d8ca2a-1350x330.png%253Fw%253D1340%2526q%253D100%2526auto%253Dformat/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZjZG4uc2FuaXR5LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODIwMzYyNjUuMTE3NzcwN30:1wbF2P:97pINUOAlregnQRQlMGaWyxAZkcyQMrfKEdnjONJggM" style="width:100%;max-width:670px;margin-bottom:15px;display:block" width="670"/>
                </a>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 Share the Brew, watch your referral count climb, and unlock brag-worthy swag.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 Your friends get smarter. You get rewarded. Win-win.
                </p>
                <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
                 <b>
                  Your referral count:
                 </b>
                 0
                </p>
                <a class="stb-btn" style="color:#fff;text-align:center;background-color:#1c7ff2;border-radius:4px;width:100%;max-width:150px;padding:15px;font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;font-weight:900;text-decoration:none;display:block;margin-top:inherit!important;margin-bottom:inherit!important;margin-right:inherit!important;margin-left:inherit!important">
                 Click to Share
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      <!-- DISCLAIMER -->
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               ✢ A Note From Fidelity
              </strong>
             </p>
             <span style="font-size:16px">
              <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
               The Fidelity Yield Enhanced Equity ETF (FYEE) has earned a Gold Morningstar Medalist Rating, reflecting Morningstar’s highest analyst conviction in the fund’s ability to outperform its category over the long term. The Morningstar Medalist Rating™ is a forward-looking analysis that considers a combination of qualitative and quantitative factors. Morningstar evaluates three key pillars when assessing a fund: People, Parent, and Process, coupled with a fee assessment. The Medalist Rating uses a scale of Gold (highest), Silver, Bronze, Neutral, and Negative (lowest). The analyst driven component for this rating is 10% which indicates the proportion of the Medalist Rating that reflects human analyst judgment while the data coverage component is 76% which reflects the proportion of required data inputs that were available and used in Morningstar’s quantitative model at the time the rating was assigned. Rating as of 3/31/2026. For more information, please read the full rating methodology by clicking Learn more.
              </p>
              <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
               Writing call options involves risk that the underlying security or instrument is sold at a disadvantageous price and may not fully protect the fund against market decline. An ETF may trade at a premium or discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV). These alternative investment strategies may not be suitable for all investors and are not intended to be a complete investment program for any investor. There is no assurance that the ETFs will be profitable.
              </p>
              <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
               <strong style="color:#000">
                Before investing in any exchange-traded fund, you should consider its investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus, an offering circular, or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.
               </strong>
              </p>
              <p style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:15px;line-height:22px">
               Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC, 900 Salem Street, Smithfield, RI 02917 1268402.1.0
              </p>
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          Written by
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           Brendan Cosgrove
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          ,
          <a class="link" rel="noopener" style="color:#333;border-bottom:2px solid #1c7ff2;text-decoration:none" target="_blank">
           Dave Lozo
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          ,
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           Matty Merritt
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