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<p data-block-key="kq9cp" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
👋 Hi Sarah. Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead and what you might've missed last week.
</p>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Poppins', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; font-weight: 700; line-height: 1.25; margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 24px; color: #171E27; color: rgba(23, 30, 39, 1); font-size: 24px; font-family: 'Poppins', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
Tech Test
</h3>
<p data-block-key="hcwxd" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
With Alphabet and Tesla posting earnings this week, investors might finally start to get some answers on whether tech giants’ massive AI splurge is building a money machine or just burning cash.
</p>
<a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
<h4 style="font-family: 'Poppins', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; font-weight: 700; line-height: 1.25; color: #171E27; color: rgba(23, 30, 39, 1); margin-bottom: 0; font-size: 20px; font-family: 'Poppins', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0;">
<img alt="Tech Test" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Ffinimize-img.imgix.net%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fchivas-assets.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com%252Fstatic%252Fimages%252FWeekly-190726-Tech-Test.original.jpg%253Fauto%253Dformat%2526fit%253Dclip%2526h%253DNone%2526ixlib%253Dpython-3.1.2%2526w%253D1200%2526s%253Daa02193b5eb193e44209e15decbf2b04/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZmaW5pbWl6ZS1pbSIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODQ0OTg1MjguNDAyMzA5Mn0:1wlZaK:kGnkSFo6CQUkv9gw_Vw5P1pokUb2zYaH60nXRiuhupA" width="100%"/>
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</a>
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🔍 The focus this week: Tech earnings
</p>
<p data-block-key="6az05" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
There's plenty on the macro calendar this week – including interest rate decisions from China and Europe – but the real spotlight will be on earningst.
</p>
<p data-block-key="1bsk3" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
It's one of the busiest stretches of earnings season, when companies reveal how they did over the past three months, and Wednesday brings a blockbuster: Google-owner
<b>
Alphabet
</b>
and electric-car maker
<b>
Tesla
</b>
report after the stock market’s close. They're the opening act for the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants –
<b>
Apple
</b>
,
<b>
Meta
</b>
,
<b>
Nvidia
</b>
,
<b>
Microsoft
</b>
, and
<b>
Amazon
</b>
will follow over the next few weeks. And between them, they'll test the single biggest assumption propping up this market: that the colossal sums being poured into artificial intelligence will eventually pay for themselves.
</p>
<p data-block-key="c1j9p" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
Take Alphabet. On the surface, business is booming: search ads are holding up, and its cloud division has been growing more than 60% a year. Even the fear that AI chatbots would kill Google Search hasn't played out – if anything, people are searching more. What’s worrying is the bill. Alphabet now plans to spend up to $190 billion this year on data centers and chips – roughly six times its 2022 level – enough to shrink its "free cash flow" (the spare money left after running the business) by more than 70%. For now, traders are treating that as a smart investment. But patience isn't infinite, so the real question on Wednesday will be whether management nudges that spending figure higher still – and whether it can show AI is actually generating sales, not just swallowing cash.
</p>
<p data-block-key="1d2md" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
Tesla’s shares are down more than 10% this year – a long way from December’s record high – while the wider market has climbed around 10%. The trouble is that Tesla's day job is getting harder. Demand for electric vehicles is cooling, rivals (especially from China) are undercutting it on price, and the discounts Tesla has leaned on to keep cars moving have eaten into the profit it makes on each one. Plus, Tesla sells regulatory credits to rival carmakers to offset their emissions – an almost pure profit stream that's fading as those rivals go electric themselves. But strip out that business, and its core margins have already thinned to single digits. That's why last quarter's bumper 480,000 vehicle deliveries barely nudged the stock. And it's the real tell: the market has all but stopped valuing Tesla as a carmaker.
</p>
<p data-block-key="eb32i" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
So what investors are really paying for is the sci-fi future Elon Musk keeps promising – robotaxis and self-driving software. What will actually move the shares on Wednesday won’t be the deliveries; it’ll be the margins and any concrete update on when that self-driving future will arrive.
</p>
<p data-block-key="fqrg1" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
But don’t forget: Alphabet, Tesla and the rest of the Magnificent Seven have powered much of the market's gains in recent years. And when they stumble, the whole index tends to feel it.
</p>
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Join Finimize Pro
</p>
<a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
<h4 style="font-family: 'Poppins', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; font-weight: 700; line-height: 1.25; color: #171E27; color: rgba(23, 30, 39, 1); margin-bottom: 0; font-size: 20px; font-family: 'Poppins', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0;">
<img alt="Finimize Pro" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Ffinimize-img.imgix.net%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fchivas-assets.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com%252Fstatic%252Fimages%252FAD-010726-ProPerformance.original.jpg%253Fauto%253Dformat%2526fit%253Dclip%2526h%253DNone%2526ixlib%253Dpython-3.1.2%2526w%253D1200%2526s%253D3f90436b2a68093fc8a4571159b7eec5/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZmaW5pbWl6ZS1pbSIsInRpbWUiOjE3ODQ0OTg1MjguNDAyNDYyN30:1wlZaK:D2VIqL-CBnPAAhLL2-rYW24fZsfuVHJhDJYu0bXBXPo" width="100%"/>
</h4>
</a>
<h3 data-block-key="eht7v" style="font-family: 'Poppins', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; font-weight: 700; line-height: 1.25; margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 24px; color: #171E27; color: rgba(23, 30, 39, 1); font-size: 24px; font-family: 'Poppins', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Be your own financial advisor
</b>
</h3>
<p data-block-key="d4abj" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
If you’re managing
<a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
your own portfolio
</a>
, you already know that the job isn’t just pressing “buy”.
</p>
<p data-block-key="df6sd" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
It’s sorting
<a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
the savvy stuff
</a>
from the utter nonsense.
</p>
<p data-block-key="706f8" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
With
<a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
Finimize Pro
</a>
, you get actionable investing ideas from experienced analysts, model portfolios, and regular updates on every live idea, plus, full access to our research archive.
</p>
<p data-block-key="em3g7" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
It’s built for people who want to manage their own money and outthink the market – with proven research and cutting-edge insights.
</p>
<p data-block-key="2pqmh" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
Best part: it’s been known to
<a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
pay for itself.
</a>
Since launch in 2024, Finimize Pro ideas have returned
<b>
32% on average
</b>
, beaten their benchmarks by
<b>
18 percentage points
</b>
, and posted a
<b>
69% hit rate
</b>
(meaning, yep, most calls made money).
</p>
<p data-block-key="abloc" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
<a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
<b>
Upgrade to Pro
</b>
</a>
</p>
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="vertical-align:top;padding:25px;padding-top:16px;padding-bottom:16px;">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" style="font-size:0px;padding:0;word-break:break-word;">
<div style="font-family:Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;;font-size:13px;line-height:1;text-align:left;color:#000000;">
<p class="content-box-header mb-4" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; font-weight: 900; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px;">
📅 On the calendar
</p>
<ul style="padding: 0; margin: 0; list-style-type: disc; margin-left: 19px;">
<li data-block-key="gn5an" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Monday
</b>
: China interest rate decision (Loan Prime Rate).
</li>
<li data-block-key="3866s" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Tuesday
</b>
: UK employment (May), Europe bank lending survey.
<b>
Earnings:
</b>
Coca-Cola.
</li>
<li data-block-key="ciiiv" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Wednesday
</b>
: UK inflation (June), Japan trade balance (June).
<b>
Earnings:
</b>
Alphabet and Tesla.
</li>
<li data-block-key="fp6og" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Thursday
</b>
: Europe interest rate decision.
<b>
Earnings:
</b>
Intel, SAP.
</li>
<li data-block-key="b9nnp" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0;">
<b>
Friday
</b>
: Eurozone, UK and US purchasing managers’ indexes (July), UK retail sales (June), US new home sales (June), Japan inflation (June).
</li>
</ul>
</div>
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👀 What you might’ve missed last week
</p>
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<b>
🇺🇸 The US
</b>
</p>
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Let’s start with the good news. Two closely watched US inflation reports came in cooler than expected: consumer prices
<a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
actually fell
</a>
0.4% in June, their first monthly drop since 2020. And wholesale prices – what businesses charge each other, an early-warning signal for inflation – rose less than forecast, helped by a big slide in gasoline. That matters because the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been leaning toward raising rates to tame stubborn inflation, but softer data gives it room to sit tight instead. Investors quickly dialed back their bets on a July hike but that said, their assumptions may already be out of date. Oil prices started to creep back up after the US and Iran rekindled hostilities – so, as the Fed boss has warned, it's far too soon to declare mission accomplished.
</p>
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Amid all that macro noise, America's banks were the week's
<a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
big winners
</a>
. Five Wall Street giants opened earnings season with a run of records:
<b>
JPMorgan
</b>
booked its most profitable quarter ever, while
<b>
Goldman Sachs
</b>
,
<b>
Bank of America
</b>
, and
<b>
Citigroup
</b>
all posted record hauls from trading, and dealmaking roared back to life. Those trading and deal fees can be feast-or-famine, though – the steadier engine of bank profits is lending, which is why every twist in the interest-rate story lands so squarely on their bottom lines.
</p>
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And that dealmaking revival wasn't just a line in the banks' results – it was already playing out. Payments firm
<b>
Stripe
</b>
teamed up with buyout group
<b>
Advent
</b>
to lob
<a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
a surprise $53 billion bid
</a>
for
<b>
PayPal
</b>
, dangling a chunky 28% premium. Once a pandemic-era darling worth more than $280 billion, PayPal has since slumped to historic lows, with a new boss midway through a painful turnaround. Analysts expect he'll wave away this low-ball offer – but a bid this big signals that with confidence in the economy and markets returning, major corporate deals are firmly back on the menu.
</p>
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🌎
<b>
Global
</b>
</p>
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The week's real drama was in tech – a tale of two companies.
<b>
IBM
</b>
crashed 25%, its worst day on record, after clients suddenly diverted budgets toward scarce memory chips and servers, leaving its software deals stranded. That's the flip side of the AI hardware frenzy: while IBM stumbled, Taiwan's
<b>
TSMC
</b>
– which builds the world's most advanced chips for the likes of Nvidia and Apple – saw sales rocket almost 68%, completely wiping out its inventory. The AI boom is redrawing tech's winners and losers, and slower-moving giants are getting caught off guard.
</p>
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🇨🇳
<b>
China
</b>
</p>
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Meanwhile, in China,
<a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
growth faded
</a>
. The economy expanded 4.3% in the second quarter – its weakest pace since 2022 and below the government's own target. The trouble was at home: a long property slump dragged investment down (spending on real estate sank a hefty 18%), and shoppers remained cautious. China's factories and exports kept the lights on, though, turbocharged by the global scramble for AI hardware. That "two-speed" economy – booming production, timid consumers – is fueling calls for policymakers to step in with fresh stimulus, perhaps even an interest-rate cut.
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Your Finimize Analyst team
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