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   The AI bubble question
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   Plus: The AI gold rush.
  </div>
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               Friday, October 17, 2025
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               Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images
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              <span style="font-size:16px;color:#000000;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               Good morning, Quartz readers! It’s Shannon Carroll with a special edition Daily Brief. Today, we’ll look at the biggest question in business right now: Is AI a boom… or a bubble? Wall Street is crunching models, Silicon Valley is rewriting physics, executives are 
rewriting history, and the banks are quietly running stress tests.
               <span class="ql-cursor">
                
               </span>
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               HERE'S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
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20px;line-height:1.5;vertical-align:top;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#000000;mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
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              <strong style="font-size:16px;color:#000000;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               Corporate America is split between AI fear and FOMO.
              </strong>
              <span style="font-size:16px;color:#000000;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               Altman calls investors overexcited, Bezos calls it an “industrial bubble,” and Lisa 
Su calls it a decade-long supercycle — proof even the builders
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="can’t get in sync." data-linktype="Normal" style="font-size:16px;color:#168DD9;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFF;text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">
               can’t get in sync.
              </a>
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             <div>
              <strong style="background-color:#FFFFFF;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px">
               The biggest banks can’t agree on the AI boom.
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:#FFFFFF;font-family:Helvetica 
Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:16px">
               Goldman and UBS say fundamentals justify the trillion-dollar buildout, while Citi and Morgan Stanley warn that the optimism looks more like
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="arithmetic than inevitability." data-linktype="Normal" style="background-color:#FFF;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;color:#168DD9;font-size:16px;text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">
               arithmetic than inevitability.
              </a>
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             <div>
              <strong style="font-size:16px;color:#000000;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               Tech’s AI crystal ball is flickering between miracle
and mess.
              </strong>
              <span style="font-size:16px;color:#000000;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               AI is either civilizational abundance or structural unemployment, depending on
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="whose quarterly deck you believe." data-linktype="Normal" style="font-size:16px;color:#168DD9;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFF;text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">
               whose quarterly deck you believe.
              </a>
             </div>
            </td>
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             <div>
              <strong style="font-size:16px;color:#000000;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               AI may be abstract, but TSMC’s 
margins aren’t.
              </strong>
              <span style="font-size:16px;color:#000000;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               Revenue approached NT$1 trillion and stayed sticky, and chip stocks rallied, too, suggesting that as long as TSMC hums, the AI trade still has
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="a pulse worth trading." data-linktype="Normal" style="font-size:16px;color:#168DD9;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFF;text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">
               a pulse worth trading.
              </a>
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               BOOM OR GLOOM
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               Silicon Valley is building faster than it can breathe. Every quarter brings a new record-setting pledge to remake the economy in artificial intelligence’s image. Data centers are swallowing ZIP codes; power grids are begging for mercy; megacaps are throwing down enormous sums to bet on a future that hasn’t fully
booted yet; and investors are practicing selective hearing on the part where revenue still trails rhetoric. The result is a strange new kind of industrial boom: part gold rush, part group hallucination, and one that is entirely dependent on whether those shiny servers can turn capital into cash before the lights flicker.
              </span>
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              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               For believers, this is the opening act of a decades-long boom — a reinvention of the industrial base that will mint fortunes as long as the chips keep moving and the
grids keep glowing. Nvidia is still printing money; Oracle is still promising it. Markets call it a “conversion test”: the slow grind of turning megawatts and metal into recurring revenue. Can all those megawatts, racks, and pre-sold dreams turn into recognizable revenue before depreciation, policy, and physics run out of patience? Even OpenAI’s Sam Altman, the patron saint of the boom, has warned that investors are “overexcited.”
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               Perhaps both stories can be true at once. The boom 
is real — the profits, the hardware, the industrial demand. But the bubble is real, too — the excess, the hero worship, the belief that exponential curves never flatten. The deciding factor likely won’t be sentiment or slogans; it’ll be timing: whether the industry can convert capacity into cash faster than gravity reasserts itself. This could still end as a once-in-a-generation boom that rewires capitalism — or as a beautifully engineered bubble that simply ran out of power. The question is whether the valuation survives long enough to justify
the voltage.
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="Quartz’s Shannon Carroll has more on what happens when hype meets the power bill." data-linktype="Normal" style="font-size:16px;color:#168DD9;text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">
               Quartz’s Shannon Carroll has more on what happens when hype meets the power bill.
              </a>
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              <span style="color:#168DD9;font-size:18px">
               CAPEX APPEAL
              </span>
             </h2>
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              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               Goldman Sachs just baptized the AI boom. While half of Wall Street nervously replays 2000 in their heads, the bank told clients this week that the AI story is still in its first inning — and the trillion-dollar tab is 
worth it. Goldman estimates that generative AI could add as much as $20 trillion to the U.S. economy over the next decade, calling current investment levels “appropriate” and “sustainable.” The price of revolution is high, Goldman argues, but the return should more than justify the burn.
              </span>
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              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               Skeptics are lining up anyway. Former Meta executive Nick Clegg warned that the market’s “absolute spasm” of dealmaking looks more like mania than progress and that the likelihood of a correction 
feels “pretty high.” It’s a familiar fear: that AI’s trillion-dollar moment could end like the dot-com decade. Goldman, though, isn’t blinking. The firm expects AI adoption to lift U.S. labor productivity by 15% once the technology fully takes hold and sees the current capital flood as simple economics — expensive, yes, but cheaper than missing out on the next industrial revolution.
              </span>
             </div>
             <div>
              <br/>
             </div>
             <div>
              <span style="font-size: 16px">
               Even so, Goldman added one pragmatic asterisk: The first movers might not be the lasting winners. The 
market will eventually sort vision from viability, and some of today’s giants could find themselves overbuilt for tomorrow’s demand. But that’s tomorrow’s problem. For now, Goldman’s message is pure institutional calm — a reminder that, in its eyes, AI isn’t a bubble inflating, it’s a balance sheet expanding.
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="Quartz’s Chris Morris has more on the $20 trillion forecast keeping Wall Street bullish." data-linktype="Normal" style="font-size:16px;color:#168DD9;text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">
               Quartz’s Chris Morris has more on the $20 trillion forecast keeping Wall Street bullish. 
              </a>
             </div>
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              <table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border:0 #9B9B9B;height:1px;width:100%;text-align:center;background-color:#888888;color:#9B9B9B;margin:0 auto;border-left-width:0;border-right-width:0">
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              <span style="color:#168DD9;font-size:18px">
               MORE FROM QUARTZ
              </span>
             </h2>
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              <span style="font-size:16px;color:#000000;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               😬
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="Bank of 
America warns that fund managers think this is a bubble" data-linktype="Normal" style="font-size:16px;color:#168DD9;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFF;text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">
               Bank of America warns that fund managers think this is a bubble
              </a>
             </div>
            </td>
           </tr>
           <tr style="padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:10px">
            <td class="td100" colspan="6" style="width:100%;padding:10px 20px;vertical-align:top;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#000000">
             <div>
              <span style="font-size:16px;color:#000000;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               🫧
               <span class="ql-cursor">
                
               </span>
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="And the IMF says the AI boom is showing dot-com bust echoes" data-linktype="Normal" style="font-size:16px;color:#168DD9;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFF;text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">
               And the IMF says the AI boom is showing dot-com bust echoes
              </a>
             </div>
            </td>
           </tr>
           <tr style="padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:10px">
            <td class="td100" colspan="6" style="width:100%;padding:10px 20px;vertical-align:top;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#000000">
             <div>
              <span style="font-size:16px;color:#000000;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               🤑
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="Still, OpenAI is wheeling and dealing — with Nvidia, AMD, and more" data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;text-decoration:none;font-size:16px;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFF;" target="_blank">
               Still, OpenAI is wheeling and dealing — with Nvidia, AMD, and more
              </a>
             </div>
            </td>
           </tr>
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            <td class="td100" colspan="6" style="width:100%;padding:10px 20px;vertical-align:top;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#000000">
             <div>
              <span style="font-size:16px;color:#000000;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               👀
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="People are 
increasingly using AI to “cheat” at work" data-linktype="Normal" style="font-size:16px;color:#168DD9;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFF;text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">
               People are increasingly using AI to “cheat” at work
              </a>
             </div>
            </td>
           </tr>
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            <td class="td100" colspan="6" style="width:100%;padding:10px 20px;vertical-align:top;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#000000">
             <div>
              <span style="font-size:16px;color:#000000;font-family:Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               👻
               <span class="ql-cursor">
                
               </span>
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="Here are five creepy ways AI is currently studying your emotions" data-linktype="Normal" style="font-size:16px;color:#168DD9;font-family:Helvetica 
Neue,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;background-color:#FFF;text-decoration:none;" target="_blank">
               Here are five creepy ways AI is currently studying your emotions
              </a>
             </div>
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